Jason - your comment about "is summer here yet" on the Forgetting Sarah Marshall page made me realize that the summer movie season is really just around the corner. As such - time for my annual thoughts on the summer season.
Last year we had the top 5 prediction for what movies would do the best. Also, it was blockbuster city, and the year of the threequals with Spidey, Pirates, Shrek and Bourne.
This summer...well, on the surface it really looks brutal. The pickings are really slim, with what I think will be several massive duds (starting with Ironman and Speed Racer), especially when you consider what they cost, and what the industry hopes they will do. Throw in the unbelievable high cost of gas and food, and I think this summer when all is said and done there will be a ton of articles along the lines of "What Went Wrong," or "Has the Movie Industry Lost its Mojo," etc, etc. Also, I think we'll see a continuation of last year where you had big openings followed by steep dropoffs, thanks to one big release per week, for a while.
But as for the weekend and the movies. Let's start in May.
May 2nd - Ironman. Call me crazy, but I just don't get the forced hype. I never liked this comic book, it doesn't seem like much (Ultraman was better), and Robert Downey Jr just doesn't bring it for me. This will have a big opening weekend, but not as big as expected, and in the end will fail to break $150M, which will be seen as a failure.
May 9th - Speed Racer. Another one I just don't get. Who is the audience here? The only ones who really remember this show are now in our 40's (or darn close), and honestly, I'm just not that pumped to see it. This will do even worse than Ironman.
What Happens in Vegas. The first romantic comedy, and one that I don't think will do all that great. Less than $60M when all is said and done.
May 16th - Narnia. The first true blockbuster. It will also steal all of Speed Racer's carry over money, and anything left from Iron Man. The previews look good, though the movie looks much darker than the first - not sure I can take my 5 year old to this one. Still, it will break $200M and be a top 5 overall earner.
May 22nd - Indiana Jones. Nuff said. Will be huge. Can't wait to see it. Will finish #1 for the summer, topping $300M.
May 30th - Sex and the City. The bummer thing about this movie is that after it bombs, it will likely seal the deal that The Sopranos is never made into a movie. Sorry, but I never got Sex in the City as a show, and even at its top there simply weren't that many people waiting to see it. It will be lucky to break $50M overall.
June 6th - Kung Fu Panda. This is my sleeper movie. I think it will do better than Wall E, and should be a top 5 grosser at the end. My kids have loved the previews.
June 13th - The Hulk. Damn! The first one was so disappointing, and I was so pumped that they were going to make it again, this time doing it right. They got a great lead. I was really excited...then I made the mistake of watching the preview (something I normally don't do, but am glad I did). It looks...awful. This one will disappoint big time with a HUGE fall off after the first week. It will be lucky to break $130M. It's too bad, because this could be a great movie - they just don't seem to know how to get it right.
The Happening - I must admit, this one has me really interested. M Night Shamalan is a good director, and yes he's lost it a bit...but he's due for a good movie. I will definitely go see it, expecting some huge gotcha moment at the end.
June 20 - Get Smart. Will either be great or a disaster. I think Carrell should carry this...but if it bombs, he's in big trouble with two bad big summer movies in a row. My prediction - it does fine with around $140M total.
The Love Guru - looks really painfully bad. Mike Myers - please bring back Wayne's World (which is what this tries to be, I guess). At the very least The Love Guru seems like a character in Wayne's World.
June 27 - Wall E. Jason - last summer I said Ratatouille would be a disappointment, and it was - though personally, I really enjoyed it (much more than I thought), and it did barely break $200M, keeping Pixar's streak alive. This movie will break that streak. The previews just don't seem that great, and I don't see enough characters to move it along. My kids haven't loved the previews. The whispering will start with this movie...and won't be answered until Toy Story 3 comes out next summer.
July 2nd - Hancock. Will Smith returns to the 4th of July with a story that seems familiar (superhero trying to get back his good name). I honestly haven't heard much about this...but I'm not betting against Will. He also has no real competition until July 18th. Put it in the top 5 overall grossers.
July 11th - Meet Dave. Eddie Murphy bombs again.
Hellboy 2 - there was a Hellboy 1? I guess people will see this...but I won't be one of them
July 18th - The Dark Knight. The movie I'm most looking forward to. Really liked the first one, and it looks like they really made The Joker a terrifying person (something I always found him to be in the comic books). Heath's untimely death aside - this movie should do huge with teenage boys and has no competition for two weeks.
Mama Mia - like the music, liked the musical...will be interesting to see if this is like Hairspray, or like Rent. I think it does break $100M or gets really close.
July 25th - Step Brothers. Will Farrell is like Survivor and American Idol. He needs to take 2-3 years off so people can remember why they used to really like him. This will do fine, but won't be a huge money make when all is said and done.
The X-Files. Should have come out 5 years ago. Not sure who really wants to see it anymore, or who will even remember what happened. Throw in in-fighting, and I smell another dog.
Aug 1 - The Mummy. This may be the first August I can remember with a number of blockbuster movies coming out. They typically do poorer this time of year due to summer vacations, but the Bourne Ultimatum sort of turned that around last year. I liked the other Mummy movies, and they all did well, but this one also waited too long. If it is good, it could become a top 5 grosser, but I see it coming in around $130M or so.
Swing Vote - could be a sleeper. Cute concept, and Kevin Costner plays good average joe characters (see Tin Cup).
Aug 8th - Pinneaple Express. The preview on a DVD we borrowed was almost unwatchable...but Seth is on fire right now. Not sure what will happen here. If the movie is anything like the preview it will get bad reviews and not do well. If it is a funny as it could be, then it could be the sleeper comedy. I'll go with a split and around $85M total.
Aug 15th - Tropic Thunder. It's too bad this is coming out so late...because I think it will be extremely funny, and could have done amazingly well with an early June release date. As it is...it's too close to the return of school, and thus won't have much staying power. But this is one of the top 5 I'm most looking forward to see.
As for my vote of top 5 earners. They would be:
1) Indiana Jones
2) Narnia
3) Batman
4) Kung Fu Panda
5) Hancock
my sleepers to crack the Top 5 would be The Mummy and Get Smart.