Paulus

[shadowfax336]

I thought some of the people who have supported (and questioned) Greg throughout the last couple years would be interested in seeing some statistics I found.

If Greg has a similar season in terms of productivity next year to what he had this year (I bumped up his numbers a tad, estimated a 11 ppg, 4.2 APG season, with about 37 games played), he would have some quite interesting places in the Duke record books.

He would be
top 30 all time at Duke in scoring
top 3 in 3point %
top 10 in FT%
top 5 in APG
and top 10 in steals

I just thought these numbers were interesting given the somewhat up and down reception he's received from fans. Those are the numbers of a top notch player, and I just hope that people aren't missing out on it due to one bad season (last year)

[DukieBoy]

some of that is quite suprising...nice stats...for what it's worth, greg has been my favorite player throughout the last two years...his swagger is great and he is becoming an incredible shooter

[Cameron]

Jon is still my favorite (I fell in love the day I read of his 200 points in 19 seconds exploits; well, you get my drift), but Greg has moved into number two. As I posted earlier this month, on the TK transfer thread, Greg is a great, great student and player. He's a true Duke Blue Devil. His fire is undeniable. He's bringing back the not-so-distant days of JJ in terms of his superb confidence, which is always good to see from a Blue Devil floor leader.

In all honesty, I couldn't be happier with anyone else in the college game (I know that sounds insane, but I really think I mean that), and I think he's going to have a BIG farewell tour. Nothing personal against Markie, but I don't think Greg will allow his not getting to a Final Four. I honestly do not.

Cannot wait for next season.

[shadowfax336]

I agree whole-heartedly
I have some friends who really were rough on the guy last year and I was the lone defender at the time...
I'm glad to see that people are coming around

[Wander]

Paulus is my favorite all time college basketball player. Seriously. Even though it was against the last place team in the ACC, watching him absolutely own NC State mentally was glorious (did even JJ ever cause an opponent's entire bench to clear across the length of the court in an attempt to fight him in the middle of the game?)

[Ignatius07]

I thought some of the people who have supported (and questioned) Greg throughout the last couple years would be interested in seeing some statistics I found.

If Greg has a similar season in terms of productivity next year to what he had this year (I bumped up his numbers a tad, estimated a 11 ppg, 4.2 APG season, with about 37 games played), he would have some quite interesting places in the Duke record books.

He would be
top 30 all time at Duke in scoring
top 3 in 3point %
top 10 in FT%
top 5 in APG
and top 10 in steals

I just thought these numbers were interesting given the somewhat up and down reception he's received from fans. Those are the numbers of a top notch player, and I just hope that people aren't missing out on it due to one bad season (last year)

It's only fair to put this into context. Paulus has started since his first day on campus, and thus had more opportunity in terms of minutes. The only time he had a true point to challenge for minutes was his freshman year in Dockery; it'd be interesting to also see where his total minutes would rank. If Paulus came to Duke overlapping the careers of virtually any Duke PG from the mid-1980s until when he came, he would not be putting up the stats above.

I am not a Paulus hater, though I do think he (and the team) would be much better served as a back-up shooting guard. Whether K is willing to do this remains to be seen.

[Cameron]

I am not a Paulus hater, though I do think he (and the team) would be much better served as a back-up shooting guard. Whether K is willing to do this remains to be seen.

I know this is not going to be much of an explanation, but nope.

[Ignatius07]

I know this is not going to be much of an explanation, but nope.

I agree with you, and it (sadly) probably doesn't deserve much more discussion given its likelihood.

[shadowfax336]

I'll grant that point for some of the numbers, but the pure shooting stroke isn't going away, and keep in mind he also has acheived these numbers while being hurt for all of last year and playing only about 25 mpg this year...

[BlueintheFace]

It's only fair to put this into context. Paulus has started since his first day on campus, and thus had more opportunity in terms of minutes.

I have a feeling that his minutes played are hardly anything unique so these stats remain equally impressive to me. I too would love to see the actual numbers there.

[shadowfax336]

Ok so the actual numbers...
Paulus has played 3174 minutes since arriving on campus, which means that if he plays about the same amount of minutes this year as last year (in hopefully a few more games this year), he will end up about 10th all time in minutes played...

but thats only relevant in only 2 of the categories I posted, scoring and steals, and the steals works on a per-game basis too if he collects them this year at the rate he has in his two healthy years (his sophomore year was significantly worse in that area)

3point%, and FT% are actually stats that we would expect to decrease with more minutes.

The worst Greg is going to end up barring something very odd is 7th all time on the Duke assists charts, and all 5 of the 6 players ahead of him are also in the top 10 on minutes played at Duke.

So the minutes possibly take some punch from my scoring point, but it really doesn't affect the rest of it

[mgtr]

As I recall, JJ remarked that Paulus would be the next most-hated Duke player. However, I don't think he meant hated by Duke fans. It is incredible how little support Paulus gets from many of the faithful. For that reason alone, I would be on his side. Go Greg!

[gep]

As I recall, JJ remarked that Paulus would be the next most-hated Duke player. However, I don't think he meant hated by Duke fans. It is incredible how little support Paulus gets from many of the faithful. For that reason alone, I would be on his side. Go Greg!

I was, am, and will be on Greg's side too. To me, he shows the character and person that I like to see in an athlete... and an all-academic to boot

[Edouble]

It's only fair to put this into context. Paulus has started since his first day on campus, and thus had more opportunity in terms of minutes. The only time he had a true point to challenge for minutes was his freshman year in Dockery; it'd be interesting to also see where his total minutes would rank. If Paulus came to Duke overlapping the careers of virtually any Duke PG from the mid-1980s until when he came, he would not be putting up the stats above.

I am not a Paulus hater, though I do think he (and the team) would be much better served as a back-up shooting guard. Whether K is willing to do this remains to be seen.

I don't think the argument about minutes is a good one. There have been a ton of guys who have either started for four years or gotten significant (starter's) minutes for four years.

It does not remain to be seen whether Coach K is willing to use Paulus as a back-up shooting guard. It is clear at this point that Paulus is going to be Duke's point guard.

I am not a Paulus hater and at times I have been very pleased with his play. I believe that he will have the traditional great senior year at Duke. I think he would be served well to watch some tapes of Duhon's senior year. It's clear that Paulus can shoot. It's clear that he can pass well and really thread the needle on the break. I have also seen him take it to the rim from time to time in the half court, although this is rare. I'd like to see him drive more and try to get us a basket when we are stalling a little in the halfcourt. Duhon was brilliant at this, and was generally great his senior year at getting a basket himself when our team needed it (often with his "giant killer" 6-8 ft. rainbow shot), and getting everyone else involved the rest of the time. It seems like Singler and Henderson will be the focus of the other team's defenses next year, so I think Greg has to be able to get a little runner or layup from time to time. I know a lot of people think that he's not atheletic enough to do this, but I have seen him create offense for himself--just not too often. I think Greg's ability to do this has less to do with atheleticism and has more to do with leadership. He needs to take full ownership of the team and become the great leader that Coach K has always claimed that he can be.

[GopherBlue]

I was, am, and will be on Greg's side too. To me, he shows the character and person that I like to see in an athlete... and an all-academic to boot

I, too, am a big fan of Greg. I suspect that we are part of the silent majority.

Impressive and somewhat unexpected numbers, but Greg brings so much more to the team than what shows up on the stat sheet.

Looking forward to his senior season!

[Bluedawg]

some of that is quite suprising...nice stats...for what it's worth, greg has been my favorite player throughout the last two years...his swagger is great and he is becoming an incredible shooter

Greg works hard, even in the off season. he is truly dedicated to his craft and Duke!

I, too, am a big fan of Greg. I suspect that we are part of the silent majority.

Put me in this category, although I tend not to be to silent.

[TampaDuke]

I, too, am a big fan of Greg. I suspect that we are part of the silent majority.

Impressive and somewhat unexpected numbers, but Greg brings so much more to the team than what shows up on the stat sheet.

Looking forward to his senior season!

I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

[Cameron]

I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

Well, Greg did lead the ACC in best assists to turnover ratio last season...

[tbyers11]

I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

From the GoDuke database, I've put Greg's per game numbers up against what most would consider the "elite" point guards under Coach K (Hurley, Duhon, JWill, and Amaker). I've also included Snyder and Wojo for comparison as good, but not great PGs.

	Games	MPG	APG	TOPG	A/TO	STLPG	PPG
Paulus	103	30.8	4.1	2.7	1.53	1.4	9.9
Hurley	140	34.3	7.7	3.8	2.01	1.4	12.4
Duhon	144	33.4	5.7	2.5	2.31	2.1	8.8
JWill	108	33.1	6.0	3.9	1.52	2.2	19.3
Amaker	138	33.8	5.1	2.4	2.11	1.9	8.5
Snyder	136	23.4	4.2	2.3	1.82	1.4	6.2
Wojo	128	25.5	3.9	1.6	2.50	1.6	5.4

On a per game basis, Greg has played fewer minutes per game than the "elite" PGs. To me, the amount of minutes that he has played would therefore slightly deflate his stats rather than inflate them as a previous poster mentioned.

Greg's TOPG is comparable to the other elite PGs. It is very close to Duhon and Amaker and 1 TOPG less than Hurley and JWill. His APG is significantly lower than the other 4 elite PGs. Duke's lack of a true low-post presence the last 2 years takes away some "easy" assists from a PG. The spread offense also takes assists away from a PG because he dominates the ball less. In the same vein, the spread also decreases the turnovers for a PG. Therefore, I feel that A/TO is the best metric for comparisons. Greg's A/TO of 1.53 is right with JWill and about 0.5 less than the other three. Greg's 1.53 A/TO is brought down by his sophomore year numbers.

• Frosh = 1.58
• Soph = 1.23
• Junior = 1.98

But even with a better sophomore year he would fall behind Amaker, Duhon, and Hurley. His scoring places him in front of Duhon and Amaker and behind Hurley (we won't compare to JWill).

If you project his senior year numbers the same as his junior year numbers, his career per game offensive stats would put him right about on the level of Amaker and Duhon (the roughly one APG less is equalized by roughly 2 PPG more) with the A/TO a notch below. His stats fall quite a bit behind Hurley and JWill, but they're HURLEY and JWILL.

Big caveat. We have barely discussed overall defense (steals are but a small part of defense) here, because it is difficult to quantify. While I think that Greg's defense is better than many on the board, I feel he is several notches below Duhon, Hurley, and Amaker in this aspect and a notch below JWill.

Like Shadowfax, I was a bit surprised that Greg will likely finish with rather lofty career statistics. But at Duke, especially for PGs, a successful career is measured by Final Fours and National Championships and I feel that much of the "hate" directed toward Greg is due to this. A PG, like a QB in football, often receives too much praise when things go well and too much blame when things don't. Remember how Chris Duhon is perceived now (after leading the 2004 team to the FF his senior year) versus how he was discussed on this board in 2003 (there was much vitriol, for those who don't remember). The talent (and experience) is there for a Final Four run next year and I think that Duke has a much better chance of achieving this goal with Greg as the starting PG rather than as the back-up shooting guard.

[BlueintheFace]

I'm not a Paulus basher, but I'd be interested in knowing where he'd rank as to turnovers and A/T ratio. For all of the incredible ability he has shown, I just wish he'd cut down on the unnecessary passes through traffic leading to too many turnovers.

Well, we'd all like less turnovers, but on the entire season Greg averaged less turnovers/game than any other point guard in the ACC. (3rd in A/TO ratio on the season, 1st in ACC play).

So, as much as I'd like less turnovers, I'm going to settle for having the least turnover prone point guard in the entire conference. (sarcasm intended)

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb.../confldrs.html

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb.../confonly.html