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  1. #41

    what foggybottom said'

    Quote Originally Posted by foggybottom View Post
    statistics aside, it was painfully obvious that one of Duke's major weaknesses this season was an inability to deal with pressure defense on the ball. The VCU game was a scenario we saw many times over the last two seasons. I love Paulus's competitiveness but he struggled to even get the ball over half court. Historically Duke has made teams who pressed pay dearly for that strategy. Teams now know the risk of the press being not only broken but attacked by Duke is low. On the other side of the ball, the same is true. Duke has a hard time stopping the ball and that responsibility starts with the PG.

    As a contrast, look at the performance Acie Law had yesterday against relentless pressure vs Louisville. His ability to shred the press and double team traps and create easy bakets was a key to Texas A&M winning. That is the power of an effective PG, a luxury Duke has enjoyed historically.
    don't think i've ever whined or complained about paulus, not that i'm not capable of it. Have to give him credit for coming back from injury and really playing hard. I'm sure he's a great person.

    Still, Duke teams have had a lot of success pressuring the ball on defense and overplaying the passing lanes. Dribble penetration causes problems if one or other guard can't stop it or put pressure on the ball to take the other team out of their offense.

    Tables seemed to be turned this year. Duke had trouble with ball pressure and had to repeatedly start offense by passing off to high wing player. Hard to run a motion offense from there.

    The high pick and rolls were also getting tiresome. Brought back memories of greece and the world championships, wonder if anyone has been watching that tape. So, if you cant stop the ball or the pick and roll from the free throw line, and you won't play zone, then your point guards assist to turnover ratio may not be your biggest concern.

    not that i'm complaining or whining or anything.

  2. #42
    Join Date
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    NC
    There were things Paulus did really well and things he didn't do well at all. He greatly improved his FG% and 3pt FG% this year, which is to be commendable. But he finished with probably the worst assist/turnover ratio of any Duke starting PG in the past 20 years (including Ewing, who was a SG forced to play PG). He struggled against pressure defense, and rarely created scoring opportunities for his teammates. This year's team desperately needed a playmaker, and that's the role Paulus was supposed to fill, and he didn't fill that role.

    Granted, there were other holes on this team. We didn't have a consistent post scoring presence. We didn't have a "lights-out" perimeter threat with the exception of our point guard. And we didn't have an offensive identity. But not having a point guard who could handle pressure defense or create shots for others was a tough problem to overcome.

    For us to succeed next year, we're going to either need several guys to develop the ability to create offense for themselves, or Paulus is going to have to make a large jump in terms of his playmaking abilities. Hopefully, Henderson can progress as a threat from the wing, because he has the type of potential to change games on the offensive end. Hopefully, Scheyer will gain confidence and strength and be a more consistent offensive presence from the perimeter. Hopefully, Thomas and Zoubek can gain strength and become more proficient interior presences. Hopefully, Singler brings some inside/outside scoring punch. Hopefully, King brings a perimeter threat to stretch defenses. Hopefully, Smith gives us a decent option as a backup PG, so we don't have to rely on Paulus exclusively. And hopefully Paulus figures out how to handle pressure defense and create shots for others.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    North of Chicago

    One thing you conveniently forgot

    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Dukie View Post
    BOTTOMLINE: Paulus is not the reason for our falloff towards the end of the season. In fact he stepped up big time and for that he should be thanked and congratulated. He showed more heart and tenacity than any of you doubters expected and yet you still won't give him any credit. I have no problem with analyzing the reason for our troubles, so long as it is in a non-mean spirited way and logical. But let's face facts, Paulus stepped up when it counted most for us.
    Defense.

    Setting aside the discussion of Greg's offensive prowess for a moment, Greg's defensive struggles really hurt this team.

    Greg can't handle quick PGs and can't effectively stop good penetrators off the dribble. When Scheyer went down with the cut in the last two minutes of the VCU game, Greg for some reason got switched onto Maynor and he was torched, and left defending air as Maynor scored. That's just the last example. Certainly not the only one.

    Even when Greg wasn't getting killed on penetration, the adjustments we had to make defensively to cover for him really hurt our D -- and are a large reason our defensive efficiency struggled as the season wore on. We switched almost every screen on D to cover for Greg. Teams invariably figured this out, and in the second half of games, teams would screen until the switch lead to a mismatch. Sometimes that was a mismatch allowing a team to attack Greg -- Maynor, Vasquez, Lawson. Other times, teams would attack a different mismatch -- guards switched onto McRoberts, Thornton guarded by McClure in the post. The result was the same. We couldn't get stops when we needed them, and we lost leads and games because of that inability to get stops.

    As for Greg's offensive improvement. He shot the ball better. That's it. He still can't create off the dribble. How many possessions against VCU, State, UNC or Maryland did we end up with the ball in Greg's hands to create something with the dribble as the shot clock wound down? How many of those possessions came up empty? Most of them. Greg's not able -- even against Engin Atsur, to create off the dribble.

    Greg's offensive troubles won't be as bad next year, presumably. King and Singler and a stronger Scheyer should allow us to spread the floor, giving more kick out options and more space for Greg to penetrate. But his lack of athleticism that requires him to back the ball down the court against guys like Singletary and Crittendon isn't going to be aided in any way by those additional weapons. He's still going to have a heck of a time running the offense while he struggles to hold onto the ball against elite athletes.

    I know there's a tendency here to view everything through Royal Blue glasses, but any defense of Greg that tries to compare him favorable with Lawson or Singletary let alone Hurley or Jason Williams is beyond Kool-Aid drinking and is well into fantasy land.

    I give Greg a ton of credit for working on his shot and making himself into a shooting threat. The problem is that he's a pretty one-dimensional shooting guard who apparently is the only option we've got at PG not just for next year, but for the next two years. He's a player that brings value to our team, and I don't disagree for a second about his heart, toughness and leadership or his captaincy. But none of that changes the fact that he's not a point guard, and we're a team that needs a point guard.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    Defense.

    Setting aside the discussion of Greg's offensive prowess for a moment, Greg's defensive struggles really hurt this team.

    Greg can't handle quick PGs and can't effectively stop good penetrators off the dribble. When Scheyer went down with the cut in the last two minutes of the VCU game, Greg for some reason got switched onto Maynor and he was torched, and left defending air as Maynor scored. That's just the last example. Certainly not the only one.

    Even when Greg wasn't getting killed on penetration, the adjustments we had to make defensively to cover for him really hurt our D -- and are a large reason our defensive efficiency struggled as the season wore on. We switched almost every screen on D to cover for Greg. Teams invariably figured this out, and in the second half of games, teams would screen until the switch lead to a mismatch. Sometimes that was a mismatch allowing a team to attack Greg -- Maynor, Vasquez, Lawson. Other times, teams would attack a different mismatch -- guards switched onto McRoberts, Thornton guarded by McClure in the post. The result was the same. We couldn't get stops when we needed them, and we lost leads and games because of that inability to get stops.

    As for Greg's offensive improvement. He shot the ball better. That's it. He still can't create off the dribble. How many possessions against VCU, State, UNC or Maryland did we end up with the ball in Greg's hands to create something with the dribble as the shot clock wound down? How many of those possessions came up empty? Most of them. Greg's not able -- even against Engin Atsur, to create off the dribble.

    Greg's offensive troubles won't be as bad next year, presumably. King and Singler and a stronger Scheyer should allow us to spread the floor, giving more kick out options and more space for Greg to penetrate. But his lack of athleticism that requires him to back the ball down the court against guys like Singletary and Crittendon isn't going to be aided in any way by those additional weapons. He's still going to have a heck of a time running the offense while he struggles to hold onto the ball against elite athletes.

    I know there's a tendency here to view everything through Royal Blue glasses, but any defense of Greg that tries to compare him favorable with Lawson or Singletary let alone Hurley or Jason Williams is beyond Kool-Aid drinking and is well into fantasy land.

    I give Greg a ton of credit for working on his shot and making himself into a shooting threat. The problem is that he's a pretty one-dimensional shooting guard who apparently is the only option we've got at PG not just for next year, but for the next two years. He's a player that brings value to our team, and I don't disagree for a second about his heart, toughness and leadership or his captaincy. But none of that changes the fact that he's not a point guard, and we're a team that needs a point guard.
    Agreed. Part of the issue here is that Paulus has the misfortune of playing for a school with a long history of terrific point guards. Williams, Hurley, Duhon, and Amaker are a tough act to follow. Even Wojo was gritty defensively and had a spectacular assist/turnover ratio throughout his career. It doesn't help to be compared to some truly outstanding all-time PG.

    Paulus is a pretty solid player if you disregard his position. He's a very good shooter, can periodically catch you napping and attack the basket for a bucket, and he plays with great intensity. But when you take into account that he's a point guard, he hasn't been very impressive. The assist/turnover ratio is poor, the assists per game aren't good, he has lots of trouble running the offense against pressure defense, he doesn't create for others, and he can't defend quick point guards.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Atlanta

    last 3 posts have been spot on

    and i believe K sees the same weaknesses and will figure out how to relieve the pressure on Greg next season some way some how.

    It just too obvious when it takes an extra 10 seconds to get a play started because the opposing guard is pressuring greg so relentlessly.

  6. #46
    Unfortunately, the issue with Greg is on the defensive end. He simply can't stop dribble penetration. Thus, teams just break us down.

  7. #47

    Huh?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    We switched almost every screen on D to cover for Greg. Teams invariably figured this out, and in the second half of games, teams would screen until the switch lead to a mismatch.

    The problem is that he's a pretty one-dimensional shooting guard who apparently is the only option we've got at PG not just for next year, but for the next two years. He's a player that brings value to our team, and I don't disagree for a second about his heart, toughness and leadership or his captaincy. But none of that changes the fact that he's not a point guard, and we're a team that needs a point guard.
    How does switching on screens "cover for Greg" on defense? If we wanted to hide him on defense, he would have guarded the other team's worst perimeter player, and never switched, so he wouldn't end up with a tough matchup.

    If you meant we would switch on-ball screens to "cover for Greg," I highly doubt the team's ball screen decisions were based on Greg. First, we usually hedged on ball screens, not switched (though Lance and sometimes Josh would struggle enough with this to turn it into a switch). Second, Greg rarely guarded the opponent's best penetrating guard anyway. Third, if any player is ever "covered up" by his team's defensive scheme, that's just a basic part of team basketball - it doesn't indicate any horrendous liability or flaw of that player or team. Many, if not most, teams win championships with a player that is "covered for" in some way, either defensively or offensively. It's about putting the players you have in the best position for them to be successful and for your team to win. For example, Chris Duhon was a much better off-ball defender than he was an on-ball defender. He wasn't the quickest laterally, and Daniel Ewing was better at on-ball defense. So Duhon often would get moved off the point guard on defense.

    Finally, whatever one's opinion of Greg's defensive struggles (even with a completely healthy foot, he's never going to be our best perimeter defender), to say that Greg Paulus is not a point guard (which I have read several times on these boards) is going way too far, in my opinion.

    If you wish the team had a better PG, that's fine. Maybe you have a different definition of point guard than I do. If you want a different type of player as Duke's point guard, that's fine too. But Greg is a (barely) 6' guard, with tremendous leadership and toughness, a deadly jump shot, and above-average court vision, ball-handling skills, and decision-making ability. That's a point guard in my book, and I think Coach K and most coaches who have see him play would agree.

    It's amazing to me how a few close losses by the team, some costly turnovers by Greg, and criticism of Greg's defense translates to "he is not a point guard." Have people forgotten some of the passes Greg has thrown these last two seasons? How about that slicing bounce pass to free Josh for a tomahawk jam? That was on Thursday night against VCU. There is a nice picture of Josh on the GoDuke.com page. Too bad some people remember the dunk, but not the pass.

  8. #48
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    Feb 2007
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    North of Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by dockfan View Post
    But Greg is a (barely) 6' guard, with tremendous leadership and toughness, a deadly jump shot, and above-average court vision, ball-handling skills, and decision-making ability. That's a point guard in my book, and I think Coach K and most coaches who have see him play would agree.

    It's amazing to me how a few close losses by the team, some costly turnovers by Greg, and criticism of Greg's defense translates to "he is not a point guard." Have people forgotten some of the passes Greg has thrown these last two seasons? How about that slicing bounce pass to free Josh for a tomahawk jam? That was on Thursday night against VCU. There is a nice picture of Josh on the GoDuke.com page. Too bad some people remember the dunk, but not the pass.
    There is very little evidence in the last two years that Greg has "above average court vision, ball handling skills or decision-making ability." Very, very little. That's why I don't think he's a PG.

    As for the pass, sure, he makes some great passes. As much as the ball is in his hands, he should. But lets not forget that for everyone of those good passes, there's an equally bad pass that's a turnover. Again, that's not the mark of a PG.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    i'm not sure how much basketball you watch, but you should know that going from 1:1 to 2:1 in assists/tos is a monumental improvement. 2:1 is the gold standard for pgs and is not easy to reach...i would be extremely surprised if he were able to do so next year. if he could do that, then this team is going to be much much improved next year and all of this chatter will be moot.
    Paulus averaged just about 4 apg and 3tos per game this season. Cutting out one TO gets him to that 2 to 1 ratio. But let's forget that arbitrary stat for a second. Consider what 1 TO costs the team. The average possession is worth just about 1pt. So even if he reached your "gold standard of 2:1" that would save us 1ppg. Don't get me wrong I want that 1ppg, but there are so many areas where we could spend hundred's of posts dissecting besides this measly 1 turnover extra per game. How about our free throw shooting or the injuries that cost certain players valuable time this year? That is worth our attention but it seems like many on this board just like to blame Paulus. I also want him to cut down the TOs but please put it in perspective.

    I would rather have him play the way he finished the year averaging 17.4ppg in his last 10 than save that one TO or 1ppg. I would rather have someone play their guts out and at least TRY to step up.

    He can be a very good PG. He can be a 1st or 2nd team all-ACC. You add one APG and cut one TO per game and he scores like he did in those final 10 games and he will get that honor next season. He is that close. So while everyone on the team can improve, Paulus no exception, how about finding some other points that we SHOULD have gotten instead of focusing on that 1PPG Paulus cost us with that 1 extra TO.

    P.S. dukie8, I have never mentioned Hurley till this point on this board contrary to your claim. Paulus is no Hurley, and likely will never be, but as Coach K says, he has never had a PG that could shoot as well as Paulus. We have something to build on.

  10. #50
    Another important factor in this assist/turnover discussion is a team's style of play. I'm not sure if anyone has studied this, but I'm pretty sure that PGs, on the whole, get more of their assists in transition than in the half-court. Point guards probably make a vast majority of the decisions that lead to baskets in transition, whereas in the half court, they don't- consider the post player who kicks out for threes, or wing players that feed the post, etc. In the half-court, PGs might make the pass that leads to the assist for someone else, but hey, this ain't hockey.

    So, rather than hoping Greg can get from 4A/3TO to 4A/2TO next year, how about if Coach K finally lets the team push the ball again? This has been especially frustrating for me as a fan because I thought this season we actually had the athletes and enough depth to do it. But maybe next year. Plus, I generally think Greg is a much better PG in transition than when he is restrained to the half-court.

    So how about a 6A/3TO average next year in a faster-paced system? I'd take it. Of course, the question would then be if that system would lead to increased TOs for Markie, G, Marty, etc., which is entirely possible, and probably the reason why Coach K has been so conservative with this bunch.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by dukehick View Post
    Let’s start with the turnovers. Paulus’ turnovers are actually down this year. During his freshman year he committed 3.3 turnovers per game compared with 3.1 per game this year.
    Please not that according to Ken Pomeroy's stats last year Duke averaged 71.2 possessions. 3.3 turnovers in 71.2 possessions is 4.6%. This year, Duke averaged 66.1 possessions per game. 3.1 turnovers in 66.1 possessions is 4.6%.

    In other words, he didn't turn the ball over less per possession, Duke just played much slower this year than last, and that made his per game TO numbers look better.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Dukie View Post
    Paulus is no Hurley, and likely will never be, but as Coach K says, he has never had a PG that could shoot as well as Paulus. We have something to build on.
    He's also never had a starting PG who had such a poor assist/turnover ratio. For a PG, I'd say that's a pretty big drawback. If Paulus was a SG, his numbers would be REALLY good. But he's a PG, not a PG. And PG are expected to have better than a 1.2:1 assist/turnover ratio, and they're expected to be able to consistently set up the offense and create shots for others. Paulus didn't do very well in that regard.

    Also, you keep mentioning that "if he just commits one less turnover per game, he'd have a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio." Well, that would be a 33% reduction in turnovers. As someone else pointed out, he's averaged the exact same turnover per possession rate in the past two years. To suddenly cut his turnover rate by a third would be quite impressive and honestly quite improbable (for any player).

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by dockfan View Post
    So, rather than hoping Greg can get from 4A/3TO to 4A/2TO next year, how about if Coach K finally lets the team push the ball again? This has been especially frustrating for me as a fan because I thought this season we actually had the athletes and enough depth to do it. But maybe next year. Plus, I generally think Greg is a much better PG in transition than when he is restrained to the half-court.
    My read on this year's team is that Paulus was the reason K didn't push the pace.

    Chris

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by EagleDevil View Post
    My read on this year's team is that Paulus was the reason K didn't push the pace.

    Chris
    Really? That's interesting. Is it because of Greg's injury? Please explain, especially if you have inside info.

    My impression was that Coach K kept the pace slow mainly because he knows that we would have a much better chance of beating UNC and similar teams by executing in the half-court, rather than trying to run with them. So, half-court execution was a major focus of the team all year. We did improve a lot in that regard. Plus, we were very inexperienced on the wing, and a fast-paced game can encourage loose, sloppy play.

    Also, it is hard to see how Zoubek fits into all of this- he wouldn't excel in a transition game, but we never really utilized him enough to take advantage of his size in the half-court. It will be interesting to see how he is utilized in the future.

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