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  1. #1

    Some Perspective on Paulus

    After listening to the basketball analysts all season and reading the season postmortems on this board, it seems that the book of conventional wisdom on Paulus has been written and it goes something like this:

    1. Paulus commits too many turnovers. He needs to do a better job of taking care of the ball evidenced by his low assist to turnover ratio.
    2. Paulus showed some grit on offense in the second half of the season because someone needed to step up and fill the void. However, he really isn’t a high caliber perimeter scoring threat in the traditional Duke mold.
    3. Paulus is too slow. He isn’t quick enough to take his man and he has poor lateral quickness on defense and therefore gets beaten by his man.

    Now let’s take a closer look at each one of these…

    Turnovers
    Let’s start with the turnovers. Paulus’ turnovers are actually down this year. During his freshman year he committed 3.3 turnovers per game compared with 3.1 per game this year. Still too many you say? Well, let’s put those turnovers into proper historical perspective. Here are a few season turnover stats from former Duke point guards:

    Bobby Hurley (Freshman) 4.3 TO/G
    Bobby Hurley (Sophomore) 3.9 TO/G
    Bobby Hurley (Junior) 3.5 TO/G
    Bobby Hurley (Senior) 3.4 TO/G
    Jason Williams (Freshman) 4.1 TO/G
    Jason Williams (Sophomore) 3.9 TO/G
    Jason Williams (Junior) 3.7 TO/G
    Tommy Amaker (Freshman) 3.0 TO/G
    Chris Duhon (Junior) 3.0 TO/G

    (I should mention that Wojo, never had more than 1.8 TO/G and Amaker and Duhon kept theirs <3 in their other seasons not listed.)

    So my point here is that Paulus’ turnover numbers are not really that high relative to other PGs in the Duke system. So the culprit with Paulus’ A/T ratio is the relatively low assist total. That is certainly something Greg will need to work on and improve. However we should remember that the PGs listed above had guys like Dawkins, Laettner, Hill, Boozer, Battier, Shelden and Redick on the other end of those assists. Consider the offensive personnel that Paulus had to work with this year…

    Scoring Threat
    Now let’s talk about Paulus as a scoring threat. When the season started I, and pretty much everyone else, would have said that Scheyer is the guy that would need to try to step in and fill the void that JJ left on the perimeter. Early in the season, that is pretty much what happened. But over the course of the season, Paulus became more and more dangerous from behind the arc. I knew this was the case but I was shocked when I looked at his final season 3 point shooting percentage. A torrid 45.6%! That is the sixth all-time highest single season percentage at Duke. And the five guys at the top of the list are not named Trajan or JJ. Also, his 68 total 3 pointers made puts him ahead of Jeff Capel’s sophomore season, Hurley’s junior season, Trajan’s freshman season, and Dunleavy’s sophomore season. By comparison, Scheyer (and this is not a criticism of him) shot only 36.5% with a total of 61 made.

    Speed
    It is true that you can’t coach quickness but a couple of former Dukies have proven that you can work on it. Anyone who remembers Wojo’s first two years at Duke knows that he was a step too slow to be truly effective. JJ got off to a great start at Duke but saw his game plateau in his second year due to his lack of speed. Both Wojo and JJ worked their butts off over the summer and showed remarkable improvements in speed as upperclassman. They also learned over time how to play their man on defense more effectively and keep their man in front of them.

    We heard stories at the beginning of this year about how Paulus went “JJ” over the summer and had really got into great shape. Well that was all thrown out the window by his injury. Something tells me that Paulus is not going to sit on the couch eating nachos this summer…

    I don’t expect this argument to sway all the Paulus doubters. I am sure they could come up with some lies, damn lies and statistics of their own. However, I think those who think that Duke will not be able to be a contender with Paulus at the point and/or who actually think that Paulus will lose his spot to Nolan Smith at some point next year really need to take a closer look at Greg’s game. Consider what he has done, who has been around to help him, and what he has been up against.

    Furthermore, Greg showed more leadership down the stretch than anyone on the team. Personally, I think he should be named as the sole captain for next year’s team.

  2. #2
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    Durham, NC
    I'm with you on Paulus being a great leader for the team, and I think he did a good job over the course of the year.

    I am interested looking at your stats, though, to see the A/TO ratio for each of those guys - that stat tells alot about how effective of a PG the player is.

    I am with you on supporting Paulus, but comparisons to Hurley just seem a bit outlandish. I think he is good, but Hurley is the gold standard.

    Exiled
    PS - I agree about training quickness - people keep saying its impossible and I know I have seen athletes increase thier speed (Heck, that is the only goal of sprinters.)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by dukehick View Post
    After listening to the basketball analysts all season and reading the season postmortems on this board, it seems that the book of conventional wisdom on Paulus has been written and it goes something like this:

    1. Paulus commits too many turnovers. He needs to do a better job of taking care of the ball evidenced by his low assist to turnover ratio.
    2. Paulus showed some grit on offense in the second half of the season because someone needed to step up and fill the void. However, he really isn’t a high caliber perimeter scoring threat in the traditional Duke mold.
    3. Paulus is too slow. He isn’t quick enough to take his man and he has poor lateral quickness on defense and therefore gets beaten by his man.

    Now let’s take a closer look at each one of these…

    Turnovers
    Let’s start with the turnovers. Paulus’ turnovers are actually down this year. During his freshman year he committed 3.3 turnovers per game compared with 3.1 per game this year. Still too many you say? Well, let’s put those turnovers into proper historical perspective. Here are a few season turnover stats from former Duke point guards:

    Bobby Hurley (Freshman) 4.3 TO/G
    Bobby Hurley (Sophomore) 3.9 TO/G
    Bobby Hurley (Junior) 3.5 TO/G
    Bobby Hurley (Senior) 3.4 TO/G
    Jason Williams (Freshman) 4.1 TO/G
    Jason Williams (Sophomore) 3.9 TO/G
    Jason Williams (Junior) 3.7 TO/G
    Tommy Amaker (Freshman) 3.0 TO/G
    Chris Duhon (Junior) 3.0 TO/G

    (I should mention that Wojo, never had more than 1.8 TO/G and Amaker and Duhon kept theirs <3 in their other seasons not listed.)

    So my point here is that Paulus’ turnover numbers are not really that high relative to other PGs in the Duke system. So the culprit with Paulus’ A/T ratio is the relatively low assist total. That is certainly something Greg will need to work on and improve. However we should remember that the PGs listed above had guys like Dawkins, Laettner, Hill, Boozer, Battier, Shelden and Redick on the other end of those assists. Consider the offensive personnel that Paulus had to work with this year…

    Scoring Threat
    Now let’s talk about Paulus as a scoring threat. When the season started I, and pretty much everyone else, would have said that Scheyer is the guy that would need to try to step in and fill the void that JJ left on the perimeter. Early in the season, that is pretty much what happened. But over the course of the season, Paulus became more and more dangerous from behind the arc. I knew this was the case but I was shocked when I looked at his final season 3 point shooting percentage. A torrid 45.6%! That is the sixth all-time highest single season percentage at Duke. And the five guys at the top of the list are not named Trajan or JJ. Also, his 68 total 3 pointers made puts him ahead of Jeff Capel’s sophomore season, Hurley’s junior season, Trajan’s freshman season, and Dunleavy’s sophomore season. By comparison, Scheyer (and this is not a criticism of him) shot only 36.5% with a total of 61 made.

    Speed
    It is true that you can’t coach quickness but a couple of former Dukies have proven that you can work on it. Anyone who remembers Wojo’s first two years at Duke knows that he was a step too slow to be truly effective. JJ got off to a great start at Duke but saw his game plateau in his second year due to his lack of speed. Both Wojo and JJ worked their butts off over the summer and showed remarkable improvements in speed as upperclassman. They also learned over time how to play their man on defense more effectively and keep their man in front of them.

    We heard stories at the beginning of this year about how Paulus went “JJ” over the summer and had really got into great shape. Well that was all thrown out the window by his injury. Something tells me that Paulus is not going to sit on the couch eating nachos this summer…

    I don’t expect this argument to sway all the Paulus doubters. I am sure they could come up with some lies, damn lies and statistics of their own. However, I think those who think that Duke will not be able to be a contender with Paulus at the point and/or who actually think that Paulus will lose his spot to Nolan Smith at some point next year really need to take a closer look at Greg’s game. Consider what he has done, who has been around to help him, and what he has been up against.

    Furthermore, Greg showed more leadership down the stretch than anyone on the team. Personally, I think he should be named as the sole captain for next year’s team.
    looking at ONLY turnover rates is just a tad misleading because it ignores assists. hurley AVERAGED 7.6, 7.4, 7.6 and 8.2 assists/game, which means that his assists/turnovers per game was roughly 2:1 -- not the roughly 1:1 assist/to rate paulus put up this year. it's easy not to make a turnover when you aren't doing anything with the ball. let's take a look at what else was going on in the acc:

    lawson: 5.6 assists and 2.2 tos
    vasquez: 4.8 assists and 2.8 tos
    singletary: 4.7 assists and 3.0 tos
    gordon: 4.6 assists and 2.3 tos
    rice: 5.5 assists and 3.3 tos
    crittendon: 5.8 assists and 3.8 tos

    so ALL of the point guards on the teams that were either tied or above us in the acc had significantly better assist/turnover ratios, ALL of them had more assists and 4 of the 6 had less tos. his stats aren't exactly blowing anyone away -- particularly when 3 of the other 6 were freshmen -- and we aren't even addressing the fact that whatever he did on the offensive end usually was negated by the other team's point guard having a monster game (eg, maynor being the most recent).

    i also question your conclusion that he was "showing leadership." this team was about as rudderless as i ever have seen a duke team. being a leader means taking charge late in close games and doing whatever it takes to win. battier did this. laettner did this. hurley did this. even jj did this even though the results weren't as good when it matter the most. just today i saw great leadership in acie law, lewis on ohio st and graves on butler. they took their teams on their backs and drove their teams to victory. where did you see paulus being a leader in the past month? i would argue that one of the biggest problems of this team was that it was completely lacking ANY leadership, which is why it lost so many games at the very end. leaders would not have let that happen so many times.

  4. #4
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    Seattle, WA

    Against ACC competition...

    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    let's take a look at what else was going on in the acc:

    lawson: 5.6 assists and 2.2 tos
    vasquez: 4.8 assists and 2.8 tos
    singletary: 4.7 assists and 3.0 tos
    gordon: 4.6 assists and 2.3 tos
    rice: 5.5 assists and 3.3 tos
    crittendon: 5.8 assists and 3.8 tos

    so ALL of the point guards on the teams that were either tied or above us in the acc had significantly better assist/turnover ratios, ALL of them had more assists and 4 of the 6 had less tos.
    For what it's worth, Paulus had a better A/TO ratio in ACC-only play (1.35) than Singletary did (1.26), but it was worse than the other four listed. He turned the ball over less frequently (as a percentage of possessions) against conference competition than Crittenton, Lawson, and Singletary, and was right about even with Rice.

    Also (again for what it's worth), Duke's offensive design, at least this year, was not point-guard-focused in terms of assists. Duke placed 4 players in the top 31 in assist rate (assists-per-teammate's made field goals) - Paulus, McRoberts, Nelson, and Henderson. Only FSU (Swann, Douglas, Mims, Allen) also had 4 in the top 31, and neither of them had as good an assist rate as Paulus did. So our assists were more spread out than those of other teams, which contributes to Paulus' lower assist numbers. Though I admit, there's a little bit of a chicken and the egg argument with that last point (was the spread out offensive focus the cause of Paulus' lower assist numbers, or were Paulus' lower assist numbers the cause of the more spread out offensive focus).
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    ...it's easy not to make a turnover when you aren't doing anything with the ball.
    I second that, and bump the thought.

    I've ripped Paulus a bit here in the forums, but not quite as much as others. However, I don't want that to imply that I have no faith in him or even that I think he should be replaced. Defense aside, I still think he could be a great player for us. Perhaps we can include defense if there's really something to the notion that his injury early in the season got him out of shape again, perhaps...

    Like dukie8 said, Paulus needs to do something with the ball. I really believe he is too cautious at times. We've seen the great passes he is capable of making, some are incredible, but these passes seem to disappear over the course of a game. Now, I'm not certain if it's really Paulus becoming more cautious or tired, or perhaps his teammates, or perhaps even if it's just the other team adjusting as the game progresses, but to my amateur eyes it appears most likely that it's Paulus' play that's different.

    He also has a tendency to make critical mistakes at critical times. That turnover right there at the end is just the first example that comes to mind, though not the most glaring. You can relate missed free throws to tired legs, as we hear from the announcers ad nauseum, but you can probably also relate them to pressure, the mental sort of course since there's not a lot of
    D when you're at the line . Unfortunately, that's something that may or may not be helped by directly addressing it. We played without any confidence whatsoever at the end of games, though that's another chicken or egg situation as we certainly shouldn't have had any late-game confidence by the end of the season.

    Leadership, confidence, quickness (get in better shape if possible): Those are the 3 attributes I'd most want Paulus to work on this summer. He can really be great at times, just for some reason not all the time. To start, no more shaking the head or otherwise showing frustration, especially when the ball is live...

  6. #6
    btw, I love you guys who look up the numbers. What's the best repository of such information???

  7. #7
    Join Date
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    Atlanta

    Assists are made penetrating the middle

    A point guard generally does not make assists from the wing or from outside the top of the key which is where Greg was most of the year. Assists come from penetrating the middle down the lane where he can dish it to a big without the big having to dribble before he takes his shot. Much easy way for a big to score and thus the point guard get the assist.

    Or if your fast enough as point guard leading the fast break for an assist. Didn't see Greg leading too many fast breaks this year, did we. He usually was walking or trotting the ball up the court.

    If we played zone defense his slowness would be less of liability there, but we don't...so.

    Coach K sees something in him because we have no one better to play point.

    Greg will be much better as a shooting guard really and as a complement to
    a true point guard. As opposed to Scheyer whose shot release needs to be much quicker. Greg does have a very quick release and he squares up like JJ. I think he works pretty well coming off picks. But again that's not what point guards do.

    I do think he is a leader, listening to him in post game interviews, etc. Much better that Josh. He is a standup man and a fine representative for Duke basketball. I think we all have his back. He got squat for help from Scheyer
    and Nelson in the VCU game.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    looking at ONLY turnover rates is just a tad misleading because it ignores assists. .
    I agree that the A/TO ratio is a key stat. But my point in the original post was if you look at that stat alone then it can be a bit misleading... Again, the conventional wisdom on Paulus is that he commits too many turnovers. My point was simply that his turnover numbers are in line with past Duke PGs. I completely agree that he needs to put up higher assist numbers. As far as relatively low assist numbers here are two contributing factors.

    1. For much of the season the offense spent a lot of time flowing through McRoberts in the half-court. Therefore during these stretches McRoberts racked up a fair number of assists. The problem for Paulus' stats in this scenario is that Greg still had to bring the ball up the court and start the offense (leading to an occasional turnover).

    2. We didn't have a stud go to guy in the frontcourt this year. All those other Duke PGs I talked about had some key guys to pass to (with the exception of Wojo in his first 3 years). What do you think would have happened to Paulus' assist totals this year if McRoberts had averaged 20 ppg? What would have happened if we had Shelden for another year?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    i also question your conclusion that he was "showing leadership." this team was about as rudderless as i ever have seen a duke team. being a leader means taking charge late in close games and doing whatever it takes to win. battier did this. laettner did this. hurley did this. even jj did this even though the results weren't as good when it matter the most.
    I agree with you that this team looked rudderless at several critical moments this year. I also remember several critical moments where Paulus stepped up big time. But yes, it was an up and down season in that department as everyone predicted this after losing two all Americans and having no upperclassman (I love Nelson and McClure but both of them were really Sophs this season in terms of games played given previous injuries).

    I think Battier was perhaps the best leader Duke has ever seen and I imagine most people would agree with me (including Coach K). But keep in mind, Battier didn't step into the leadership role until his Junior year. He was a Soph in '99 and was a solid player on that team but not the leader. So, holding Greg to the standard of Hurley, Laettner, JJ, or Battier when he is only a Soph trying to lead a team without any upperclassman is COMPLETELY UNFAIR. Hey, if you want to throw Paulus under the bus after next season then by all means... But I think you need to cut the kid some slack this year and give him a chance to prove you wrong next year.

  10. #10
    I would go even further with an assumption that this year's version had far fewer possessions than did other years, thus creating a disproportionate opportunity cost in comparison.

  11. #11
    Thank you for this thread. I completely agree that Paulus gets a bad rap. I will go on record as saying he gets at least 2nd team all-acc next year and potentially 1st team (with the standard proviso that he stays healthy, knock on wood).

    46% from 3pt range. Higher than Langdon or Redick, two 3pt Duke legends. That should at least give you doubters some pause, to reconsider your positions on our captain.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Dukie View Post
    Thank you for this thread. I completely agree that Paulus gets a bad rap. I will go on record as saying he gets at least 2nd team all-acc next year and potentially 1st team (with the standard proviso that he stays healthy, knock on wood).

    46% from 3pt range. Higher than Langdon or Redick, two 3pt Duke legends. That should at least give you doubters some pause, to reconsider your positions on our captain.
    you have to be kidding me that you are citing 3pt % as evidence that he is a better shooter than redick or langdon -- particularly when so many duke fans were all up in arms over lute olson saying that stoudamire is a better shooter than redick because his percentage was better. did you ever consider the degree of difficulty? redick ALWAYS had the other team's best perimeter player on him (and often another guy) and usually was the focus of the other team's defense. i agree that he really improved his shooting this year but i have no idea how you could possibly believe that he is going to be 1st or 2nd team all acc. if lawson stays, there's 1st team right there. if he doesn't, then vasquez, rice and singletary all had significantly better seasons this year than he and clearly would be the top candidates for 1st and 2nd team (and i am ignoring crittendon who will be much better if he stays).

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    you have to be kidding me that you are citing 3pt % as evidence that he is a better shooter than redick or langdon -- particularly when so many duke fans were all up in arms over lute olson saying that stoudamire is a better shooter than redick because his percentage was better. did you ever consider the degree of difficulty? redick ALWAYS had the other team's best perimeter player on him (and often another guy) and usually was the focus of the other team's defense. i agree that he really improved his shooting this year but i have no idea how you could possibly believe that he is going to be 1st or 2nd team all acc. if lawson stays, there's 1st team right there. if he doesn't, then vasquez, rice and singletary all had significantly better seasons this year than he and clearly would be the top candidates for 1st and 2nd team (and i am ignoring crittendon who will be much better if he stays).
    Did I say he was a better shooter than redick or langdon? No I didn't. Please read carefully. I said his 3pt % should give you doubters pause. 6th highest all time at Duke, yeah that should give you pause too. Please care to explain that one?

    As for 1st or 2nd team ACC, i'm completely convinced Vasquez will be in jail for all/part of next season. I mean, the guy is just a thug.

    In all seriousness, you take the last 10 games for Paulus and he was the best point guard in the ACC. Yes, it didn't translate into wins, but for whatever reason we couldn't finish.

    Evidence for strong Junior season from Paulus:

    #1 strong finish to sophomore season
    #2 46% 3pt % and leading 3pt scorer on team
    #3 another season of improvement
    #4 hopefully no foot injury or early season illness to slow his development

    Add it all together, and I think you have a strong case to think positive for Paulus next year. Get on the bandwagon now.

  14. #14

    I am not one to quote John Madden too often...

    Hi,

    John Madden says something along the lines that, "Winning cleans up a lot of stink." If Duke is doing well next year, Paulus will receive less scrutiny. If Duke has another year like this one, as the point guard he can expect to be crucified--justified or not. In a way I am sort of sick of talking about it because the one vote that matters, Coach K's, seems squarly for Greg. So, one can fire up one statistic after another and as long as Coach K thinks Greg should play--he will. Also, it seems a bit strange to second guess a coach with so much success. All those years of going to the sweet sixteen, if not farther, and all of the sudden he can't judge talent better than some guy who has a lot fewer credentials. I am not saying Coach K is infallable or that he isn't stubborn (goodness knows he has been quite stubborn at times and I think can be to the detriment of the team), but I am saying he has earned the right not to be second guessed a lot about this. He sees something in Greg and so Greg is his man. I trust Coach K. I am more into supporting people than tearing them down particularly when they wear the right shade of blue.

    GO DUKE!

  15. #15
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    Nolan Smith

    The best thing that could happen to improve Paulus' game next year is for Nolan Smith to be as good as some people believe he is. If Smith can beat people off the dribble and take some of the playmaker load off of Paulus' shoulders by beating the fullcourt press, then Paulus may really be able to exploit his 3-point shooting skills. I would draw an analogy between Duhon/Williams and Smith/Paulus. The 2001 Blue Devils really excelled having two guards on the floor who could both handle and shoot. Duhon enabled Jason Williams the freedom to concentrate on scoring. I'm cautiously optimistic that Paulus will benefit from Smith's presence. I'm cautious because of the "unknown" associated with freshmen.

    Bob Green
    Yokosuka, Japan

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    The best thing that could happen to improve Paulus' game next year is for Nolan Smith to be as good as some people believe he is. If Smith can beat people off the dribble and take some of the playmaker load off of Paulus' shoulders by beating the fullcourt press, then Paulus may really be able to exploit his 3-point shooting skills. I would draw an analogy between Duhon/Williams and Smith/Paulus. The 2001 Blue Devils really excelled having two guards on the floor who could both handle and shoot. Duhon enabled Jason Williams the freedom to concentrate on scoring. I'm cautiously optimistic that Paulus will benefit from Smith's presence. I'm cautious because of the "unknown" associated with freshmen.

    Bob Green
    Yokosuka, Japan
    Unfortunately, I'm not sure how many minutes Nolan and Greg will get to play beside each other. 5 minutes a game? 10? Because with Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson, and Pocius also in the backcourt, and with Nolan being a freshman and likely Greg's backup, I just don't see them spending much time together. Certainly any crunch-time lineup will have some combo of Paulus, Scheyer, Hendu, and Nelson in the backcourt, you would think.

  17. #17
    The following is the summary of the last 10 games for Paulus and the people who are generally considered the best PGs in the ACC (I included both Virginia guys). Now while I may have been too aggressive in saying Paulus was the best over that time period, he certainly is not the liability all you whiners complain he is.

    Paulus 174 pts, 39 assists, 36 TOs
    Reynolds 173 pts, 34 assists, 31 TOs
    Singletary 190 pts, 42 assists, 28 TOs
    Rice 197 pts, 40 assists, 34 TOs
    Crittenton 160 pts, 62 assists, 40 TOs
    Lawson 112 pts, 69 assists, 16 TOs
    Vasquez 110 pts, 62assists, 31 TOs

    Then look at his 3pt &#37; vs those guys

    Paulus 45
    Singletary 40
    Reynolds 37
    Lawson 37
    Crittenton 36
    Vasquez 32
    Rice 32

    I think Paulus stacks up very well thank you (and his last 5 games were even better > 20 pts a game & < 3to's a game).

    Just to give you guys a bit more comparison look at these stats:

    Paulus 17.4pts, 3.9 assts, 3.6 to's
    J Will 21.3pts, 5.3 assts, 3.7 to's

    Yes J Will was the man. He is in my top 5 favorite Duke basketball players of time. Those are his stats from the 2001 season when Duke won the title and was Jwill's sophomore year. Yes, J Will's #s are better, but Paulus still has time, and we are comparing him to someone with his jersey hanging from the rafters in Cameron!!! Paulus is pretty darn good.

    Do you really have to keep dogging our captain? Look at his stats. He is getting better. He is our leader. He is right there with the best in the ACC and he has tremendous passion and heart and didn't back down to anyone (opposing players, commentators, or spectators). And I stand by what I said, I believe he will be 1st or 2nd team all ACC next year. If you can't get behind him, then perhaps you are just a spoiled wine and cheese kind of fan.


    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Dukie View Post
    Evidence for strong Junior season from Paulus:

    #1 strong finish to sophomore season
    #2 46% 3pt % and leading 3pt scorer on team
    #3 another season of improvement
    #4 hopefully no foot injury or early season illness to slow his development

    Add it all together, and I think you have a strong case to think positive for Paulus next year. Get on the bandwagon now.
    Last edited by HK Dukie; 03-18-2007 at 12:12 PM.

  18. #18
    statistics aside, it was painfully obvious that one of Duke's major weaknesses this season was an inability to deal with pressure defense on the ball. The VCU game was a scenario we saw many times over the last two seasons. I love Paulus's competitiveness but he struggled to even get the ball over half court. Historically Duke has made teams who pressed pay dearly for that strategy. Teams now know the risk of the press being not only broken but attacked by Duke is low. On the other side of the ball, the same is true. Duke has a hard time stopping the ball and that responsibility starts with the PG.

    As a contrast, look at the performance Acie Law had yesterday against relentless pressure vs Louisville. His ability to shred the press and double team traps and create easy bakets was a key to Texas A&M winning. That is the power of an effective PG, a luxury Duke has enjoyed historically.

  19. #19
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    Apples to Oranges

    Lawson has some nice advantages - fast, strong, aggressive. He has other advantages - he plays 25+ minutes for a very talented, offensive-minded team that runs. They averaged well over 20 points more than Duke. They had excellent finishers. Would it surprise me to know that he averaged, essentially, 2 more assists a game than Greg Paulus? No.

    To get an assist, you have to make the pass that leads to a basket. Paulus has excellent instincts in this regard. He does not, however, have excellent finishers on the team. He does not, however, have teammates who run and run and get easy baskets. Some of his turnovers come from just plain poor play. I would estimate that half of them come from his aggressively trying to create offense. He has at least one (or two) turnovers a game that come from him passing the ball to where a teammate should have been (if he understand basketball). He could have picked up another assist or two if his passes to a teammate resulted in that person actually shooting a shot instead of hesitating and kicking it back out. He would have more assists if he wasn't the team's leading scorer over the last ten games. It is hard to get the assist passing to yourself.

    Breaking the press? You need teammates in the right place to do that. You also need teammates who will take advantage of breaking the press and make the other team pay. Duke used to do that routinely - this team seemed to hesitate. I usually felt more comfortable with the ball in Greg's hands than in any other.

    Bobby Hurley was great. One of my favorite Duke players ever. He never had to deal with the other team focusing most of their defensive energy on him. He had other superstars who took (and made) all kinds of big shots. He had defensive pressure that lead to fast breaks and easy assists. What would Bobby have done playing with a bunch of freshmen and sophomores who were afraid to shoot? He'd probably be reading about how King Rice was so much better and about how the incoming freshmen would relegate him to the bench because they were so much better.

    How would Ty Lawson done with this Duke team? Let's increase his minutes. He could push the pace - but since no one else on the team was joining him - he'd have to stop that. He could drive into the middle to the hoop. Since Duke had no one stepping up to be an offensive threat, he'd have to make some shots. He'd end up with some charges, some layups, and some blocked shots and turnovers. Why more? Because driving into the heart of a defense only really works if the defenders are more worried about who you might pass it to than they are about you. Would he have shot as well or consistently from long-range? No. His assists would be down and his turnovers would be up. He would be more fatigued. The pressure would rise. He is an excellent player - but it is more than just the physical skills (Stephon Marbury and John Stockton).

    How would our maligned Paulus have done with the UNC team? His scoring would be down (the team wouldn't need it). His court vision and work on the break, in my opinion, is better than Lawson's. I think his assists would be way up. His turnovers would remain the same - more possessions and he is still aggressive. Drive and kick for a three. Assist. Pick and roll to Pyscho T. Assist. Paulus has the skills and the drive. He just needs more experienced teammates.

    The last ten games the consistency and confidence of almost every player on the team waned. People seemed afraid to step up. Except for Greg Paulus. For that, he is endlessly compared to others (in an unfavorable light). There are even some who hint that his increased leadership role played a part in our lack of success. Somehow, if he had just made a better pass to Jon, that jumper would have gone in.

    For heaven's sake. He just played one of the guttiest ten game stretches that a short, speed-challenged former quarterback could be expected to play against long odds and the criticism of half the fan base and most of the media. He rose to the challenge. We should celebrate his accomplishments. Instead, we're trying to retire him.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Not only is Lawson faster than greased grease, so is Ellington. I'm not sure if I've ever seen a pair of guys who can get out ahead of everybody on a break like those two. You're used to seeing fast guys all the time in sports, such that fast guys look like normal speed. But these Carolina guys right now make me

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

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