Vitale's Picks for 2008-09

[dukie8]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

[Chicago 1995]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

At some point I'd have to think that Vitale's going to figure out that until UNC learns to play D, they aren't winning the whole shooting match.

FWIW, Luke Winn at CNN/SI has us 9th. That's generous in my opinion.

[brevity]

Strange man. He has two Big East teams in his top 5, and neither are Connecticut, West Virginia, or Notre Dame? He seems very confident in Louisville's and Georgetown's incoming freshmen.

[TheDuke11]

there is no reason that with everyones early departures that we should not be ranked at least in the top 7. ucla is going to lose basically their entire starting 5.
unc is an easy choice at 1 if everyone comes back.

[mgtr]

It is tough to make these picks until the whole draft situation is sorted out.

[CDu]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

Apparently Vitale forgot to consider the NBA draft. Love and Collison are almost certain to both declare for the draft. I won't be surprised if Westbrook follows. Those were the three players of any real consequence on the UCLA team this year, with regard to Final Four prospects. If they're all gone, UCLA will not be back next year. Relying on a bunch of freshmen, no matter how highly rated they are, is not generally a recipe for success.

I'm not sure I buy Louisville. They trade two senior big men for two freshman big men. They'll be big, but they'll still have problems on the perimeter. They could be really good though, so I guess I'm not that bothered.

Texas's status depends entirely on Augustin and James. If they lose those two, they're going nowhere next year.

Georgetown loses their center, their point guard, and their sixth man. They get a potentially great recruit in Monroe, but you just never know. They weren't close to the top 5 this year, in my opinion, so I don't see them being there next year unless Monroe is otherwordly.

Even UNC's place is highly dependent upon three potential exits (though unlikely exits, in my opinion). This is why it's silly to seriously discuss who's going to be the top 5 for next year in April this year. Until we know who's going to be where, it's just throwing darts.

[Wags]

Kevin Love and Darren Collison have declared for the draft and 3 of Louisville's players have also entered the draft. I believe Padgett is graduating too.

[should_be_working]

Kevin Love and Darren Collison have declared for the draft and 3 of Louisville's players have also entered the draft. I believe Padgett is graduating too.

What 3 louisville players are you talking about? I heard about Clark, but thats it?

[BlueintheFace]

What 3 louisville players are you talking about? I heard about Clark, but thats it?

Earl Clark
Derrick Caracter
Terrence Williams

[K24U]

Kevin Love and Darren Collison have declared for the draft and 3 of Louisville's players have also entered the draft. I believe Padgett is graduating too.

A lot will depend on how well UCLA's freshmen play. They have a stellar group of kids coming in. Even if just Love leaves I would have to put them back in the top 10.

Here's a look at who they have coming in.

http://brci.bravehost.com/2008%20Team%20Rankings.htm

[Jumbo]

fwiw, vitale just came with with his preseason top 5 as:

1 unc
2 ucla
3 louisville
4 texas
5 gtown

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

[should_be_working]

Earl Clark
Derrick Caracter
Terrence Williams

thats a huge hit to their team, my husband's a big louisville fan (rick pitino fan) and he's not going to be happy hearing this.

EDIT: found this article saying williams was staying: http://westvirginia.scout.com/a.z?s=159&p=2&c=744456

[77devil]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

I agree with you Jumbo but am fine if the pundits rank us low for next year. It should provide some level of motiviation and I'd rather Duke over deliver on lowered expectations.

[Classof06]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

I just don't think you can put Duke as a top 5 team until you see how Zoubek is looking come November; I place even more importance on that now that he just underwent another surgery.

I think Duke is going to be a very good team next year and would be thoroughly surprised (again) if they didn't make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. If Gerald takes that last step (which he started to take against Belmont and WVU), I think he'll be one of the best players in the nation and one of the 2 or 3 best in the ACC (depending on what TH does).

But until you see what Zoubek (and Czyz, for that matter) have to offer come next season, I think it's premature to put Duke as a top 5 team. Keep in mind we lost our leading scorer and rebounder in Demarcus.

[SMO]

As someone said, Vitale is idiotic for doing this now, since he's essentially working under the assumption that a lot of guys will come back (and they clearly won't).

As far as where we rank, I'm usually pretty even-handed in my preseason expectations, but I'm shocked at how many people think that Winn putting us ninth is "high." No, it's low. Duke is a top-five team next year, at minimum. We basically bring everyone back, we'll have 11 scholarship players, we'll finally have veteran experience, and we have three guys who can reach elite status (Henderson, Singler, Scheyer). I'm very optimistic, and I'm saying that as objective a perspective as possible. If I saw a team that was as strong as Duke for most of this season returning that much talent, I'd immediately label them a title contender. That's what we'll be.

I'm with you, man. What other 25+ win teams will lose just 1 player that logged significant minutes and add two players of the quality of Williams and Czyz? Probably too early to tell but I'm guessing not many.

[soccerstud2210]

after april 27th... then we'll have a better overview

[gw67]

I understand the idiocy of trying to identify the top teams next year without waiting for the NBA draft; however, I think that there are teams like Duke that shouldn't be impacted by the NBA draft. Three Big East teams that should be good next year include Georgetown, West Virginia and Notre Dame.

Georgetown - Yes, they lose Hibbert, Ewing Jr. and Wallace but they return frontcourt size in Summers and Macklin and they will have three highly regarded frosh big men. In the backcourt, Wright has the potential to be better than Wallace and Sapp, Rivers and Freeman are experienced and bring different skills to the table. They also have a well-regarded backcourt recruit. They may have more good players than any team in the country although, like Kansas, they may lack a star. I expect young Thompson to have a very good team.

West Virginia - WVU returns 6 of their top 7 players and Mazzula should be able to replace Nichols in the backcourt. They also have some well regarded recruits who add size and depth. Alexander may be one of the top players in the country next year and they have a top coach.

Notre Dame - ND returns 6 of their top 7 players next year and Harangody should be an All American candidate.

[Jumbo]

I just don't think you can put Duke as a top 5 team until you see how Zoubek is looking come November; I place even more importance on that now that he just underwent another surgery.

I think Duke is going to be a very good team next year and would be thoroughly surprised (again) if they didn't make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. If Gerald takes that last step (which he started to take against Belmont and WVU), I think he'll be one of the best players in the nation and one of the 2 or 3 best in the ACC (depending on what TH does).

But until you see what Zoubek (and Czyz, for that matter) have to offer come next season, I think it's premature to put Duke as a top 5 team. Keep in mind we lost our leading scorer and rebounder in Demarcus.

I'll take you through my thought process.
1) We've forgotten how good we looked for most of the season.
2) We've forgotten how good Singler looked for most of the season, and how much he can impove from frosh to soph year. All we remember his Kyle standing outside launching threes. We'll see a lot less of him at the 5 next year and with it, I expect to see much more of him posting up fours, taking guys off the dribble and creating plays for others.
3) Gerald's improvement over the course of the season was pretty incredible -- and he did it with a serious injury. I can't wait to see what's next.
4) You know how I feel about Scheyer and now the ball will finally be in his hands. He makes everyone better. I loved Markie and will miss him, but Scheyer as a junior will be a much better offensive player than Markie was.
5) Nolan Smith had to learn a new position as a freshman. I have every reason to believe he will improve, push Paulus for time, and be a factor next to him.
6) Everyone else of consequence, besides Markie, is back. (I'm not worried about losing King at all). Sure, every player might not improve. But enough will to make a difference.
7) Veterans. Basically, this will be the first time in three years that Duke will be led by a group of juniors and seniors. And it's not just that the players will be older, stronger and wiser. They'll be used to playing with one another. That will mean better communication on defense, better reads on offense, etc. That stuff matters.

Look around the country after the early defections. With or without an improved Zoubek (and I do think he'll improve enough to be noteworthy), Duke will be able to stack up against anyone.

[DangerDevil]

I'll take you through my thought process.
1) We've forgotten how good we looked for most of the season.
2) We've forgotten how good Singler looked for most of the season, and how much he can impove from frosh to soph year. All we remember his Kyle standing outside launching threes. We'll see a lot less of him at the 5 next year and with it, I expect to see much more of him posting up fours, taking guys off the dribble and creating plays for others.
3) Gerald's improvement over the course of the season was pretty incredible -- and he did it with a serious injury. I can't wait to see what's next.
4) You know how I feel about Scheyer and now the ball will finally be in his hands. He makes everyone better. I loved Markie and will miss him, but Scheyer as a junior will be a much better offensive player than Markie was.
5) Nolan Smith had to learn a new position as a freshman. I have every reason to believe he will improve, push Paulus for time, and be a factor next to him.
6) Everyone else of consequence, besides Markie, is back. (I'm not worried about losing King at all). Sure, every player might not improve. But enough will to make a difference.
7) Veterans. Basically, this will be the first time in three years that Duke will be led by a group of juniors and seniors. And it's not just that the players will be older, stronger and wiser. They'll be used to playing with one another. That will mean better communication on defense, better reads on offense, etc. That stuff matters.

Look around the country after the early defections. With or without an improved Zoubek (and I do think he'll improve enough to be noteworthy), Duke will be able to stack up against anyone.

8) Regardless of how much of the off season they miss recovering from their surgeries, we should have a much healthier team than we did down the stretch, especially Henderson, Thomas, Zoubek, and Smith.

[moonpie23]

regardless of the hole's Pre-season ranking...or record, or talent, or regular season....they still have roy to choke away anything close to a title..

i mean, seriously folks.....were they not "awesome" last year"? were they not "awesome" this year? how much MORE talent could they possibly have? different maybe, but not more...the arrogance unc holds within their fabric will have them choke as long as he is there..

roy is the answer