Vitale's Picks for 2008-09

[CDu]

Teams were attempting to attack Paulus all season. This wasn't some great discovery that Wake Forest suddenly stumbled upon. Again, as far as strategy goes, Duke isn't (and never has been) a complex team.

I brought up the problems on both ends of the floor, not just defense. With regard to defense, I think that we were fine for the most part. Teams that are patient will eventually be able to exploit our screens, but there are few of those teams. I'm more concerned about teams that have good athleticism at every spot, because those are the teams that can exploit us more easily (because we can't hide Paulus). Against most teams that won't be a problem (most teams have someone Paulus can guard), but against better teams, that will be a problem.

And I disagree with you that strategy wasn't gained from the Wake game in terms of guarding our offense. I think there's a reason that the offense looked less fluid and was less efficient over the last 11 games. And I don't think it was entirely due to fatigue/illness/injury, or even primarily due to those factors.

[greybeard]

I brought up the problems on both ends of the floor, not just defense. With regard to defense, I think that we were fine for the most part. Teams that are patient will eventually be able to exploit our screens, but there are few of those teams. I'm more concerned about teams that have good athleticism at every spot, because those are the teams that can exploit us more easily (because we can't hide Paulus). Against most teams that won't be a problem (most teams have someone Paulus can guard), but against better teams, that will be a problem.

And I disagree with you that strategy wasn't gained from the Wake game in terms of guarding our offense. I think there's a reason that the offense looked less fluid and was less efficient over the last 11 games. And I don't think it was entirely due to fatigue/illness/injury, or even primarily due to those factors.

What was it then? What do you think that teams figured out and what did they do that stopped the machine.

[CDu]

What was it then? What do you think that teams figured out and what did they do that stopped the machine.

My guess is that they figured out to play tougher defense further from the basket and to switch stronger on the screens. Paulus wasn't much for beating his men off the dribble (even if they were bigs), and Our screeners typically weren't adept at the screen and roll to the basket (or the screen and post on the smaller player).

This would make it tougher for us to get the drives to the lane, which cut down on some of the wide open threes (by cutting down on the need to collapse in help defense).

[Classof06]

That's not exactly what we're saying. That's a very small component of what we're saying.


Who has said that? Show me, please.


I'll tell myself differently, thank you. Sure, every team misses good players who leave. But if you have enough good players to replace him, the loss is negligible compared to what other programs face. Fact is, Duke played just as well with Jon/G as a wing combo as with DeMarcus on the floor. Jon and G improved tremendously this year, and, to quote you, they'll improve again next year -- "don't let anyone tell you different." So if both are playing 30-35 minutes per game, we're looking to find 10-20 minutes off the bench behind them. Don't you think either Smith, Williams or Pocius can do that?

He was our best player. We've lost our best player one season and kept rolling the next. I wouldn't say he was our most "consistent" player.


We're not saying it won't be an issue whatsoever, because Smith has to make the necessary improvements to replace his D. But one reason why some of us aren't that worried about it is the fact that Scheyer, Henderson and Singler all have the potential to be better next year than DeMarcus was this year.



Wow, that's a pretty large sample size. Let's expand it, shall we?
2007 top-4:
1. Florida (champs)
2. UNC (elite eight)
3. Kansas (elite eight)
4. Pittsburgh (sweet 16)

2006
1. Duke (Sweet 16)
2. Texas (Elite 8)
3. UConn (Elite 8)
4. Michigan State (First round)

2005
1. Kansas (first round)
2. Wake Forest (Second round)
3. Georgia Tech (second round)
4. UNC (Champs)

I can keep going, if you like, but I think you get the picture.


Heavy favorite? There's no such thing in the NCAA Tourney. Even the #1 seeds are not heavy favorites to make the Final Four when the field is announced. I think Duke will be one of the top 5 teams next year and will have one of the five best chances of making the Final Four. The odds are still against anyone making it, but Duke has a good chance.


Why are you yelling?


There are other ways to score besides shooting threes and dumping the ball into someone on the block. Even if Zoubek and Thomas don't improve as post scorers, we have a number of guys who can attack the rim off the dribble and get to the foul line. We have players who can excel in the mid-range game. And I fully expect a strong Singler to be willing to use his considerable skills as a post scorer next year, rather than limiting himself to three-point shooting, as he did late in the year.



I'll say it again -- based on how I project various teams' rosters to look after NBA attrition is complete, I have no hesitation calling Duke one of the five best teams in the country. Obviously, the games must be played. But I don't understand why you can't consider this perspective reasonable.

Haha, I didn't know I could yell through a computer. I'm saying I personally don't find it reasonable because it seems like you're using an, albeit impressive, 12-game win streak in January/February of 07-08 to project a top 5 ranking in November of 08-09. I don't see how we go from losing to VCU one year, to barely beating Belmont the next year to making the Final Four the third year. This is a still a team where Paulus has the most NCAA tourney wins of anyone at 3; it takes 4 to make a Final Four.

I think everyone will improve and believe it or not, I think will be a very strong team next year (like we were this year). Hell, I sincerely think Gerald can be a 1st team-All American next year. But the fact remains that the story of this team is still an over-reliance on perimeter talent (Zoubek's development notwithstanding). That is not conducive to makng a Final Four. That's a problem you seem be overlooking or minimizing; based on what I saw this past season, it's something I can't ignore. Unless Zoubek and Czyz can show me something by scoring and/or rebounding, I don't see what has changed. And we won't know what those 2 have to offer until November. Thus, my original suggestion of waiting until we get closer to the season to see how we look before making what I believe is a VERY bold claim.

Like you said, a Top 5 preseason ranking signifies you think Duke has one of the five best chances of making a Final Four next year. In fact, you said Duke should be Top 5 "at a minimium." Looking at it objectively and not as a Duke fan, I can't possibly understand that logic and I don't see how you can call that an "objective" opinion.

I just find it premature to sit here and say we should be top 5 preseason next year, 3 weeks removed from being embarrassed (at least I was) in the NCAA tournament.

And I disagree with you that strategy wasn't gained from the Wake game in terms of guarding our offense. I think there's a reason that the offense looked less fluid and was less efficient over the last 11 games. And I don't think it was entirely due to fatigue/illness/injury, or even primarily due to those factors.

Co-signed.

[Waynne]

I'm kind of tired of this whole "ranked 16th" thing. Duke was a top-10 team all year. No one pays attention to the post-Tourney poll.

Disagree, because I think a strong finish to the season is more important than playing well during the season, though playing well during the season obviously is important too, as poor play means no post-season. Finishing strong boosts returning players' and fans' morale, makes returning players eager to improve in the off-season so as to have another strong year, and focuses our recruits' attention on the program in a positive way. Not playing well at the end of the year leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

The team played very well during the regular season the last 2 years, being ranked as high as #2 both years, I think, but the '06-'07 team went 4-6 the last 10 games and finished out of the rankings, and this year we went 6-4 and finished 16th. All our great play and high rankings during the regular seasons came to naught when it mattered most, in the post-season.

These outcomes caused angst all around, and probably tell us a number of things, including 1) both teams were primarily composed of young players who did not pace themselves properly during the regular season because they were unused to the rigors of a 30+ game season, and 2) our offensive and defensive weaknesses were such that in the second half of the season other good teams figured out how to play us.

Issue 1) should be resolved next year because we will have a veteran team, while hopefully improved play at the point and in the post will take care of 2). I think the coaches and players will make finishing better than the last two years a top goal next season.