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  1. #1

    Impact Of The 3-Point Line Rule Change

    Next year the 3-point line moves back one foot to 20' 9". I'm curious to read others' thoughts on the impact of the rule change next year. Does this benefit or hurt a team like Duke?

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by buzz View Post
    Next year the 3-point line moves back one foot to 20' 9". I'm curious to read others' thoughts on the impact of the rule change next year. Does this benefit or hurt a team like Duke?
    It will have almost no impact what so ever, even without Taylor King.
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

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  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
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    Texas/NC
    Zero effect for Greg Paulus and Jon Scheyer. Might actually be an issue for Gerald... nothing a little hard work can't change. Same for Kyle.

  4. #4
    Funny, because I was just thinking about that. If anything it'll hurt Singler with the amount of 3's he took on the line. I think getting him closer to the hoop helps us anyway. Paulus and his shots were all well behind that line. If its a good shot though it will still go in.

  5. #5
    Won't it be easier to spread the floor too?

    I think d-mark wouldn't have shot as many 3's though.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    I predict lots of out of bounds calls early next year as our shooters set up a few feet behind the line (out of bounds) on drives so they can catch and step in to their shot. Adjustments will be made and it will all be good.

  7. #7
    A few questions to consider: What happens to other teams that have fewer good shooters than Duke? Will teams start to see/employ more zone-oriented defenses?

  8. #8
    I hope people play zone vs. Duke. Maybe they'll only run man with half court pressure too.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Toledo
    I agree with Ozzie. The line change will have zero impact on our club. Greg and Jon already have range out to 20, 21 feet and Kyle has the type of pure shot that, with a little practice, will have him hitting those deeper three balls in no time. I think Nolan will be able to hit them as well. He has a nice shot and, besides, a foot is nothing at all for shooter who is already smooth. If it is, then they are not much of a shooter.

    Gerald might need more practice than anyone else, but that's alright. I'd rather see him concentrating on tearing up the paths into the lane and slamming on jokes (haha, that was the first term that came to my mind, so I'm going to go with it). Gerald has a great, great mid range game and it will be nice to see him utilize it completely.

    As for the whole line change thing in general, though, it's stupid. I know many here don't agree, but I just don't see why something that is not broken has to be reconstructed. Doesn't make sense to me. But, it appears to be a done deal so whatever.

    I do believe there is one final vote, correct? Any chance that gets blocked, or not a chance in Hell?
    "Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    Here is my theory-

    Most teams get three pointers by 1) playing an inside-outside game, or 2) get open looks on the break/ broken plays. Very few teams have offenses geared towards hitting three pointers. When the line is moved back next year, a lot of those threes are going to be rimming out or missing iron all together.

    So, Coach K knew what was coming and used this season for one thing- to get Duke used to a system that will dominate while other teams struggle to hit threes they were used to hitting. He didn't care about ACC titles or Championships. He was just planning and plotting for this upcoming season when our team will dominate from behind the arc. HAH LAUGH AT OUR "WEAK" FRONT COURT NOW!!!!!

    Makes sense right???

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Toledo
    ^^Great theory there, Blue!

    Boy would that be Heaven if it worked "to plan"
    "Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    As for the whole line change thing in general, though, it's stupid. I know many here don't agree, but I just don't see why something that is not broken has to be reconstructed. Doesn't make sense to me. But, it appears to be a done deal so whatever.

    I do believe there is one final vote, correct? Any chance that gets blocked, or not a chance in Hell?
    I don't like it either.

    Here is part of an article I read about it;
    The national high-water accuracy mark came the first season the 19-9 distance was standardized in 1986-87. Then, from that .384 percentage, it never improved for 10 consecutive years, going down nine times.

    Coaches nationwide howled about dwindling shooting fundamentals. Despite the extra point, players were more interesting in dunking their way onto "SportsCenter." Since bottoming out at .341 in 1996-97, it slowly rose to .350 last season. The NCAA's concern in moving the line back wasn't so much the percentage of 3-pointers made as the percentage of 3-pointers taken and making the college game too outside oriented.
    So it's not that it's an easy shot - they want to change the amount of attempts. What's wrong with teams wanting to be outside oriented?

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Inman, SC & Melbourne Beach, FL
    I think the current system is broken. I have seen teams which pay little attention to the three point line (except against a zone), and drive to the 12-15 foot range and pop a jumper. This has become a lost art, but it is always (well, almost always) available. True, you only get 2 points, but the likelihood is much higher of making the shot.
    So, my point is that the further out they move the 3 point line, the more opportunities there are for good schools to score inside that line, leaving the area outside for the accurate guys. I have no problem with Hendo taking only 12-15' jump shots plus drives to the hoop next year. Let Paulus and Scheyer shoot outside the line.
    Also, this may force Singler back inside, where he can do some real damage. I don't know what his 3 pt % was this year, but the coaches need to go over that with him, and get him to focus on the higher percentage shots. I think that anybody with a reliable 12-15 foot jump shot (like Hansbrough) will score some real points next year.

  14. #14
    Well there's certainly nothing inherently wrong with an outside-oriented game... I guess some people just long for the game they knew years ago. Or they're just desperate for a few more crowd-pleasing dunks.

    For those saying that the move will not effect Paulus, Scheyer, and anyone else who regularly shoots behind the line... Are you sure? I'd like to believe this is the case, but isn't part of the reason that these guys take their shots from so far behind the line sometimes because that's where they're open. Defenses tend to focus on guarding shots at the line, so if you're a few feet back you're more likely to have space to get your shot off (or, maybe you just catch a defender being lazy, or not paying attention). Once the line is moved back, I assume that anyone intending to guard against the 3 will be guarding the new line, and if Paulus can't get his shot off from there he'll be a few feet behind the new line.

    One the other hand, one foot hardly seems like enough distance to make that big of a difference for someone already shooting from 20ft. (I'm sure there's some statistical significance, but how small is it?) Changing the amount of space to work with along the sidelines though seems like possibly the biggest factor to me.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    I think the current system is broken. I have seen teams which pay little attention to the three point line (except against a zone), and drive to the 12-15 foot range and pop a jumper. This has become a lost art, but it is always (well, almost always) available. True, you only get 2 points, but the likelihood is much higher of making the shot.
    So, my point is that the further out they move the 3 point line, the more opportunities there are for good schools to score inside that line, leaving the area outside for the accurate guys. I have no problem with Hendo taking only 12-15' jump shots plus drives to the hoop next year. Let Paulus and Scheyer shoot outside the line.
    Also, this may force Singler back inside, where he can do some real damage. I don't know what his 3 pt % was this year, but the coaches need to go over that with him, and get him to focus on the higher percentage shots. I think that anybody with a reliable 12-15 foot jump shot (like Hansbrough) will score some real points next year.
    This study by Ken Pomeroy says that players are actually more accurate from 19-9 than they are from 12-15 feet. Furthermore the difference from 19-9 to 20-9 is negligible.
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  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Sort of agree

    Duke is fortunate to have at least two shooters (Paulus and Scheyer) that shouldn't be affected. Not clear how Gerald, Nolan, Kyle, and Eliot will do. But if Duke isn't affected on offense, other teams will be. So this should help the Devils, I think.

    Defensively, I don't think it will affect K's philosophy, since Duke already guards well out past the three point line, but our personnel could. If Zoubek is to play big minutes, it will be harder to extend the defense.

  17. #17
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    Inman, SC & Melbourne Beach, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by riverside6 View Post
    This study by Ken Pomeroy says that players are actually more accurate from 19-9 than they are from 12-15 feet. Furthermore the difference from 19-9 to 20-9 is negligible.
    I agree with KP, of course, since he has the data. But my point was that players don't practice that little jumper much, they are more interested in jacking one up from long distance. Probably the players who shoot short jumpers are the ones who cannot make a three, and who may not be very good shooters at all. The further you move out the three point line, the more players will practice the shorter shots. Now a one foot distance is not so great, but I believe it is not neglible.
    If you run into a zone, the area around the free throw line is often open for a jump shot.
    A well-known big guy from UNC can make the 12-15 shot fairly regularly, but I don't think he has hit a three in a game this year (on relatively few attempts, though).

  18. #18
    I have to agree that it's inconclusive about whether Duke will be affected by this rule change. I mean, Duke relies on 3-pt shooting, and now the 3-pt line has been moved back. The only player I was certain wouldn't be affected was Taylor King. For the rest of the guys, I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. I THINK Greg won't be affected, and I'm merely hopeful for every other player. I'm crossing my fingers that nobody on the team is affected, but even if just one guy is, it could make a significant impact. What if it's Kyle, for example? We saw how well Duke played down the stretch when he wasn't hitting from outside.

  19. #19
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    Feb 2007
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    Dillon, Colorado
    What about defensively? Year in and year out, Duke is among the leaders in allowing the fewest opponent 3s as a percentage of total points. Because it's tough to shoot 3s against us, and our opponents score mostly 2s already (specifically 2s, not free throws), could this hurt us defensively?

  20. #20

    Lightbulb Physics Time

    OK, the following is not for Terps....

    One can estimate the effect on 3-point accuracy using some basic physics. As the distance increases, the accuracy of a shot decreases by the square of the distance (because it can go arwy in either the long/short or left/right plane).

    So, if the overall NCAA accuracy on 3 pointers is 35%, next year we should expect it to be 31.7% (.35 x 19.75 x 19.75 / 20.75 x 20.75).

    Doesn't sound like much but it definetely makes the 3 pointer a worse bet compared to the two pointer. As pointed out elsewhere in this thread, the better shooters will still be effective from three point range, but coaches will have to be more selective in who they give the green light to.

    Neal

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