Which Carolina player is gone?

[JasonEvans]

I understand your thought process, but I believe after four years they'll MAKE them leave...NC title or not...

Alert the media-- we have a budwom sighting!!!

Dude, you MUST hang out here more often!!

--Jason "you wanna talk old-time DBR names, Budwom is one of the first!" Evans

[budwom]

No better time to be with friends, Jason, than after a Tarheel meltdown on national TV.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I have been telling my wife that I had no clue what hanstravel was majoring in, in college. He has shot like a million free throws and that is when they usually show it but I have never seen it. Well tonight I finally saw that he majors in communications. As soon as we saw that my wife asked me if hooked on phonics is considered communications....I proceeded to spit my drink out haha...

Funniest line I've read on DBR in quite a while. Worthy of something the FITS might say!

Back to the topic at hand, I think Lawson is gone. Rumors last month that his ankle took so long to heal because his dad wouldn't let him play until he was 100% tells me they were looking ahead to his pro career, not helping the holes win this year.

Most NBA careers are time (age) limited. With Hanstravel being as old as he is, if he doesn't go pro now he'll be nearing retirement age when he finally does go to the league And since he was called for both fouls and a travel last night, his Teflon shield seems to be wearing off in college. Time to go, Tyler, take my word for it

If these two players go, Wayne Ellington might as well, but I think he'll stay. His shining moment was the first Clemson game when he hit the game winner and scored like 75 points (OK, I think it was 32). He is a great athlete, but if he stays (and the others go) next year's POY in the ACC (and nationally) could come down to Gerald, Kyle and Ellington. I think Ellington will be back.

[Troublemaker]

Regardless, if UNC brings back Hansbrough, I believe they'll still be a GREAT team even without Lawson and Ellington.

Hansbrough (can you imagine him with another year of hard work???)
Thompson
Stepheson
Ginyard
Frazier (starting point guard)
Green (starting in place of Ellington)

Now throw in Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and Larry Drew. If just one of those can step in and play as well as a Singler - I wouldn't be surprised to see a final four appearance.

That's actually a pretty sizable understatement, I think. One major theme of next season is that it's going to be a "down season" for college basketball. Almost all of the great players from the tremendous high school classes of '06 (Oden, Durant, et al) and '07 (Beasley, Love, et al) will be in the NBA. Even the '06 guys that stuck around for their sophomore seasons (Lopez twins, Arthur, Westbrook, etc) will be gone.

I am hoping that Duke can take advantage of this depleted landscape to develop into the best team, but if UNC returns everyone to take advantage of it instead, then I'm just not going to watch much college basketball next season, outside of the occasional Duke game. UNC, with everyone back, should be a favorite against the field because there won't be a Kansas, Memphis, or UCLA around to stop them. So, yeah, it's important that we see a UNC defection or two.

[davekay1971]

I am hoping that Duke can take advantage of this depleted landscape to develop into the best team, but if UNC returns everyone to take advantage of it instead, then I'm just not going to watch much college basketball next season, outside of the occasional Duke game. UNC, with everyone back, should be a favorite against the field because there won't be a Kansas, Memphis, or UCLA around to stop them. So, yeah, it's important that we see a UNC defection or two.

If UNC returns everyone, I'll still be watching plenty of hoops, because Duke gave Carolina every bit as good as we got, and we're returning everyone except Nelson. I'm not going to roll over and hand the ACC to the 'holes just because they return Pstrolling T, Lawson, and Ellington, and I doubt the team will either.

[Troublemaker]

UNC next season:

Everyone stays = favorite against the field or close
Only Lawson goes = pre-season #1
Only Ellington goes = I don't see this happening, but preseason #1
Only Hansbrough goes = I don't see him leaving in any scenario, but a top 5 team
Everyone goes = probably a pipe dream, but still a good team
2 out of 3 leave = still a good team
Lawson and Ellington leave, Hansbrough stays = my dream scenario, as I want another shot at Hansbrough, but without his helpers, haha

If I had to bet on what happens, I'd take only Lawson leaving.

IMO.

[JasonEvans]

If UNC returns everyone, I'll still be watching plenty of hoops, because Duke gave Carolina every bit as good as we got, and we're returning everyone except Nelson. I'm not going to roll over and hand the ACC to the 'holes just because they return Pstrolling T, Lawson, and Ellington, and I doubt the team will either.

I am firmly convinced we were as good as them for most of this season and we return just about everyone (we'll miss Markie, but everyone else gets older and better). There is no reason we won't be able to compete quite well with whatever Carolina puts on the floor next year.

--Jason "also, someone indicated that Ellington was likely to stay-- that is the opposite of what I am hearing. He's the most likely to leave, I think" Evans

[BD80]

One more year will NOT help Hans' draft position unless next year is a weak draft for bigs. Another year would just give scouts more time to pick out his flaws. Another year at UNC would not help him as a pro, because he his physically mature (23) and his game has pretty much peaked and plateaued. His lower draft status will allow him to go to a good team where he can be a valuable role player and contend for championships.

That said, I think he stays to set all of UNC's records and to try to be the first back-to-back player of the year since Oscar and another shot at the NC. The chance to be Carolina's best player ever (statistically speaking) over Jordan, Worthy, Daugherty, Perkins, Jamison, Montross, Swicker, Akulaja, Hayworth, et al is an ego trip many would like to take.

The issue is not giving up a year of rookie salary, but rather losing a year out of one's pro career, arguably a higher earning year. While another year in school makes you a year older, does it really shorten your career by a year? Look at Mutumbo, he didn't start in the league until he was 40, and he is still going strong as he approaches 60.

[Olympic Fan]

That said, I think he stays to set all of UNC's records and to try to be the first back-to-back player of the year since Oscar and another shot at the NC.

"the first back-to-back player of the year since Oscar"?

What about Jerry Lucas, consensus national player of the year in 1961 and 1962 (right after Oscar)? How about Bill Walton, consensus NPOY in 1972 and 1973 (amazing, Alcindor won in 1967 and 1969, but was not back-to-back since Elvin Hayes won it in 1968).

Then there's Ralph Sampson, who was a THREE-time consensus NPOY in 1981, 1982 and 1983.

You could get away with saying "the first back-to-back player of the year since Sampson" although there have been several guys since then who won significant national player of the year awards in their next-to-last year, then won concensus honors in their final years -- including both Jason Williams (the NABC Award in 2001, concensus in 2002) and J.J. Redick (Rupp Award in 2005, concensus in 2006).

As for Carolina defections -- a lot of wishing and hoping on this thread. None of us have a clue. But I want them all to come back ... it would be that much sweeter when we beat them next year.

[BD80]

next year's POY in the ACC (and nationally) could come down to Gerald, Kyle and Ellington.

For the national player of the year, I think the early favorites would have to include Stephon Curry, Luke Harangody, DeJaun Blair, and Kosta Koufas (Ohio State). The way he played for 15 minutes last night, throw KU's Aldrich into the mix Any chance Brandon Rush stays for his senior year?

[arnie]

Lawson is not a lottery pick, though he is close. He is generally projected as a mid-first rounder. I've seen him as low as about 22 and as high as 15 in mock drafts. He'd have to go around #10 or #11 to make $2 million his rookie season.

No one projects Zeller, Davis, or Drew to be nearly the impact player that Singler was -- not even in the same ballpark. None of them are ranked nearly as high as Singler was nor are any of them presumed to be nearly as ready as Singler was. Additionally, the 2008 high school class is significantly weakerr than the strong 2007 class. A kid who is just top 20ish in 2008 would probably just be a top-40 or 50 kinda player if he was in the 2007 class or 2009 class.

What's more, Zeller and Davis are big men who can probably expect to be little more than backups to Stephenson and Thompson next year. Drew is the lowest ranked of the 3 and, as a PG, will only get minutes when Frasor is sitting next season. Heck, I don't think anyone would be hugely surprised if Roy gave Ginyard more minutes at the PG than he givs Drew next season.

That said, Carolina will again be a very strong team. Even if they lose all 3 of Hasbro, Ellington, and Lawson (and I hear Ellington is all but gone for sure while the other two are still unknown) they will have a strong roster with heaps of size. Thier worst case scenario is --

  PG- Frasor 6-3 with a nice outside shot
  SG- Ginyard 6-5 with stud defensive abilities
  SF- Green 6-5 and an All-ACC Player next year if he is a starter
  PF- Thompson 6-9 with a lot of potential to be a scorer inside
  C- Stephenson 6-9 with potential to dominate as a shot blocker
  Bench- 3 freshmen (Ed Davis will be the best) plus Graves and Copeland

--Jason "that's a pretty good team-- top 4 in the ACC probably-- and that is the worst-case scenario" Evans

Don't agree with your assessment of Green - if the stars leave, then players will defensively pay attention to Green. He was the recepient of wide open shots thanks to Hanblow and Ellington producing. I jdon't think Green is a star on a normal team.

[Jumbo]

Folks,
Just look at the early entry lists from the past several years. The concept of "unfinished" business hardly ever keeps a player in college. Sure, there are a few exceptions, and I could see Hansbrough being another. But almost all basketball players dream about the NBA far more than college hoops. We've seen first-hand how players can jump to the NBA without a first-round promise. The number of players from other schools who made the leap without a prayer is staggering. Sure, some players return to work on their games and improve their stock, but plenty jump at the first chance they get. Comments made in the immediate aftermath of a Tourney loss have been shown to mean next to nothing. I will be shocked if Lawson stays, despite the fact that he'll be in a much stronger position with next year's point guard crop. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hansbrough or Ellington left. (I'm actually a big fan of Ellington's pro potential, despite supposed concerns about his size and "athleticism.") The initial sting of any tough loss will fade, and there's a lot of time between now and the deadline -- time during which players on the fence tend to hop over it.

[BD80]

"the first back-to-back player of the year since Oscar"?

Sorry, my sarcasm font wasn't on. I think you made my point, he has a chance to be listed in the same breath with some of the greatest college players of all time. He won't be that great as a pro, so this is his chance for immortality. Of course, if he goes to the Pacers, he has a shot at immorality.

[ArtVandelay]

--Jason "also, someone indicated that Ellington was likely to stay-- that is the opposite of what I am hearing. He's the most likely to leave, I think" Evans

What's your source for this, Jason? This is surprising to me, as I think of Ellington as the least NBA-ready of those three guys. My instinct was that Lawson would be most likely to leave and Ellington least likely, with Hansbrough somewhere in between.

[MChambers]

My uninformed opinion is that Lawson is likely to go - from what I've heard he gave it some pretty serious thought last year as well. He'll be a 10-15 pick in the draft IMO.

Ellington I think stays. I just don't think he'd be a first-round lock at this point - perhaps next year.

Hansbrough is the borderline case. I could totally see him coming back, but I really do think he'd be picked around #20, I don't think he'll improve significantly on that next year, and he's going to be ready for retirement within a few years. I wouldn't be surprised either way there.

Green is of course staying.

Is that I really don't know if Lawson, Ellington, and Hansbrough have done anything but lower their draft positions by staying in school. Maybe Ol' Roy can't develop his players?

Obviously, I don't believe that, but it is interesting how three very good players seem to have not improved their pro potential the last two years. Probably says more about the failings of the NBA draft, reaching for "upside" all the time.

[Kdogg]

The NBA allows a one time test period for college players so Tyler, Lawson, Ellington and Green all should put their names in the draft. If they do not like their draft status they can opt out. For Tyler and Green there is no downside (except expenses ) because they will not be able to do this in the future. If Roy really has the player's best interest in mind he has to tell Tyler to at least put his name in the draft.

I like Lawson and Ellington are gone. I have no idea about Tyler.

[freedevil]

One thing that may weigh on all of these kids' minds is this: they were the #1 overall seed in the tourney, preseason pick to win it all, had all the tools to win it all... and fell short. Do you pass up hordes of money and the dream to play with the big kids for a chance to have the same result?

[Duvall]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hansbrough or Ellington left. (I'm actually a big fan of Ellington's pro potential, despite supposed concerns about his size and "athleticism.")

Really? I thought 6'3" shooting guards were NBA poison. What makes Ellington different?

[freedevil]

^ Monta Ellis. Ellington could easily be a Monta Ellis type player.

[bballfan]

I know that the way it was announced doesn't necessarily tip his hand but given that UNC has already announced its intent to retire Hans jersey, it seems weird his playing another entire season. I realize that they simply tied it to his receiving a National Player of the Year award, but it was still a bizarre thing to officially announce during the Junior season of a player who then stays for four years (should he stay).
(on a side note, given that the stated criteria wasn't even Consensus NPOY, Rasheed Wallace and a few other former peeps might wanna know why Hans-roseycheeks received an honor denied them?)
It's certainly no more than a clue as I can imagine opposing arguments (that he will stay) based upon the same information, but I do think that the timing of this announcement during this past season means something.

As for Lawson, I think that he was pretty definitely planning to leave after this year when the season began but as Roy clearly struggles to develop guards whom he's recruited at Carolina , Lawson's draft status has only slipped with each passing year thusfar (Ellington's too, actually. Dang you, Roy!). Ty, return again at your own risk!

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

UNC's Athletic Council policy states that a student-athlete must be the national player of the year to have his or her jersey number retired. In men's basketball, a student-athlete must win one of the following six player of the year awards: the Oscar Robertson Trophy (selected by the United States Basketball Writers Association of America), the National Association of Basketball Coaches; the Associated Press; The Sporting News; the Naismith Award (presented by the Atlanta Tipoff Club); and the John R. Wooden Award (presented by the Los Angeles Athletic Club).

They announced that hansbro would have his jersey retired after he won the sporting news award.. Stackhouse won npoy in1995 from SI, which is not on the list for unc. i guess it was pretty much automatic after Hansbro won the sporting news npoy. They also have about a million "honored' jerseys in the smith center rafters but only the jerseys on the front row are "retired'... Kinda silly. needless to say I dont think unc announcing hansbro jersey being retired has anything to do with him leaving early or staying