Is it time for Duke to change some things?

[freedevil]

Jumbo, I am very curious as to what, if anything, you think needs to change at Duke so that this minor trend of poor end-of-season play ceases. If you would like to direct me to past-posts on this that I may have missed, please do.

[Edouble]

I don't think that we aren't recruiting the right type of players or we're not playing the right style of game but something was amiss at the end of the season. Up until the Wake game Duke played as well as any team in the country and I think were capable of beating any team out there, including UCLA, Kansas, Tenn and Texas. We DID beat UNC and while Lawson didn't play, I'm not sure he would have made enough of a difference to change the outcome of that game. Duke played really well.

Unfortunately, things changed after that game. I can't quite put a finger on it. I know that the struggles were primarily from poor shooting but there has to be more of a reason for several good shooters to missing so many shots besides they just weren't falling. Fatigue has been mentioned a lot but with the exception of Singler, I'm not sure I'm buying it. Nelson led the team in minutes at only 30.9 mpg. No one else even cracked 30 mpg. Singler was second on the team with 28.6 mpg and since he was a freshman and played a much more physical game than he was used to, I think his being tired was understandable. No one else should have been tired at the end of the season. Nelson, Scheyer and Paulus all played fewer minutes on the season and per game than last year.

No, somewhere or somehow the team seemed to lose their swagger and what was a team that was tough as nails became tentative at times and confused at others. My biggest concern going into next year is not the amount of talent or even the team's size, its, who is going to step up and be the man. Having 5 players score double figures is nice, but when the game is on the line, you have to have a player grab the game by the throat and take over. This year, Nelson, Paulus and Singler did that at times in the early games and Henderson and Scheyer did some later in the season but we never had the one guy who consistently said give me the ball and climb on my back. If someone doesn't take on that role next year (calling Mr. Singler, calling Mr. Henderson, or calling Mr. Scheyer) then next year very well may resemble this year, a lot of talent, a lot of wins but a short post season.

This is really the way it seems to me too. Something happened... the swagger was gone, as you say. However, I am buying the fatigue argument, only because I have no other explanation I like better. Besides fatigue, chemistry seems like the only other logical explanation, and I really got the impression that these guys liked playing together. I think some players got tired because four really good players had to do the work of five on the floor at any given time. Nelson has to score 15 ppg, guard the other team's best slasher, and rebound. Singler has to drive, shoot threes, and guard huge guys like Hansbrough. I'm not sure that we got alot of production from the five spot this year, which is where bringing in a big athletic banger comes into play. If we had Patterson or Monroe on campus next year, I feel like the team might only lose one or two games. But having to rebound by comittee and have a natural three defend the other team's five is really draining. We've had that NBA-small-forward-that-plays-power-forward for a long time at Duke (Battier, Deng, Hill) but they all had some beef in the middle to clog the lane, play D, and take on primary rebounding responsibilities.

Whether or not you consider a guy like Boozer or Brand a forward or a center is unimportant. It's their size that's important. The difference in size between Lance Thomas and Boozer, Brand, or even Erik Meek is significant.

[unexpected]

I think the "we need a big man" argument can be summarized as follows:

In the years we have been filthy, we've have a player that loves playing with his back to the basket. It's not a height issue or an athletic issue (shelden was incredibly strong, but not the fastest guy on the court).

Zoubek would fit the bill, but isn't really an animal around the basket. We need to either develop or recruit someone that will be. McRoberts wasn't it, Lance and Singler aren't really it- Singler would be a PERFECT Duke 4 (as Jumbo says, in the mold of Luol and Hill). It almost pains me when he has to play the 5.

Also, Jumbo, I agree with mostly everything you wrote, but Henderson = D. Jones? Remember when Justin Gray broke his jaw by simply running into Dahntay? Dahntay was built like a 60's muscle car, Henderson's more of a Skyline...

[Rudy]

Also Eric Boateng at 7-0 and 245 lbs was in the current junior class with Paulus and McRoberts. He transferred to Arizona State after his freshman year and after sitting out a year he averaged less than 12 minutes, 2.7 rebounds and 1.4 points per game this season. He was the 3rd ranked center of his h.s. class.

[Jumbo]

Jumbo, I am very curious as to what, if anything, you think needs to change at Duke so that this minor trend of poor end-of-season play ceases. If you would like to direct me to past-posts on this that I may have missed, please do.

That's a really hard question (see my thread about randomness). Obviously, we'd all have loved to have landed Blake Griffin, Gary Johnson or Patrick Patterson Or Greg Monroe. But what can we do? As the song goes, "You can't always get what you want."

We don't need a major overhaul of any kind. Sure, I'd love to see us press a little more, perhaps. I wish Paulus were a better defender. Other than that, I don't think much needs to change. We just need to land a decent portion of the recruits we target. And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

Drastic changes aren't necessary. Minor tweaks can go a long way.

[Kfanarmy]

I BELIEVE Brian Z will be a monster by the end of next season. I can't wait for him to see a full season on the floor with a little bit more strength and a whole lot more time to build cohesion, develop timing, and improve precision with the rest of the team...I believe at the end of the season he will be the MAN in the middle...I hope he proves me right.

[RelativeWays]

That's a really hard question (see my thread about randomness). Obviously, we'd all have loved to have landed Blake Griffin, Gary Johnson or Patrick Patterson Or Greg Monroe. But what can we do? As the song goes, "You can't always get what you want."

Hopefully, if Zoubek and LT try sometimes, we just might find, we get what we need. Which is rebounds, btw.

[Edouble]

And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

Drastic changes aren't necessary. Minor tweaks can go a long way.

Yeah, I remember a story (I'm sure everyone knows this one) where Coach K would call Battier over the summer between his sophomore and junior years and make him look in the mirror and tell himself he was going to be the best player in the ACC that year.

When Henderson decides he wants to be the best player in the ACC, he will be. We all know the talent and ability is there... he just needs the repetitions.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Coach K has changed the style of play A LOT in recent years. In 2006, we had a half-court, grind it out type of team that focused nearly all of the offense around two players. This year's team, on the other hand, went up-tempo and spread the offense through nearly everyone. I don't think it's fair to say that Coach K is dedicating to winning "his way." He's made a lot of changes in style as necessitated by team makeup. He'll do the same next year if need be.

By "his way" I was referring to within the NCAA rules and other aspects of the program for which I respect Coach K and make his program GREAT. For example I think he tries to recruit players he wants to be around, players that expect to stay more than one year, etc. I can see how my post was confusing.

I do understand and appreciate that he changes the style of play to fit the team makeup and the rules (3 pt shot, shot clock, etc.) However I also think that he can be pretty stubborn.

SoCal

[Defenserules]

The clear answer is yes. We need to win more games in the tournament. Like it or not the regular seasons means nothing, especially if the ACC remains as weak as it was this year. The only mark of success in college basketball is to go deep into the tournament on a regular basis. Our team is not made to do that right now. I don't think we have to win it every year, but if this trend continues I can see being really excited if Duke makes the Sweet 16 and to be honest I would hate that. I was a grad student at Vandy a few years back when they made the Sweet 16. I was amazed at the buzz around town just for getting into the second weekend of play. Sure making it that far is a great thing for a school like Vandy, but it never has (at least not in a long while) been a big deal for Duke and when it becomes so we can pretty much know at that time that we are not an elite program. I'm scared that a few more 1 and done or 2 and done seasons and its going to be that way quicker than we would all like to admit.

Now the next question is what should we do? That I'll leave up to Coach K. I respect the heck out of the guy and I trust that he will have an answer, but I would suggest that new ideas, new influence and new perspectives can be a huge advantage in a fluid situation. I love our assistant coaches, but I often wonder if they ever feel like (other than Dawkins) that they can tell Coach no. Speaking truth to power can be hard, especially when that power is a person that you idolize and were totally sold on as a 17 year old kid. Again that's K's decision to make not ours, but in my mind that would be where I would start.

[Bluedawg]

Bluedawg: Guess what Alexander's shooting line was against Duke?

7-22 1-2 7-8 2 9 11 4 22 3 2 3 0 40

you are missing the point. If Kyle didn't have to spend his time banging with bigger men and could play his position he could be more effective.

[KandG]

This year's team was a very talented and pretty athletic team, but lacked an inside presence (on both ends) and didn't have an elite playmaker.

Instinctively, the latter point seems to me the common thread among Duke teams that haven't had been as successful (relatively speaking) under K's reign since 1986 or 87. The most memorable Duke teams usually has some sort of dynamic playmaker or hub around with the offense flows, and that can break down defenses -- and it doesn't always have to be a point guard. I always felt, for example, that Danny Ferry really made the Final Four teams of 1988 and 89 go, even though Quin was the PG (and I wouldn't consider Quin an "elite" playmaker)

This is why I felt the Wojo era wasn't as "successful" -- Wojo was an excellent defender and leader, but he was not an elite playmaker capable of breaking down defenses and making plays (having Carrawell in 1998 almost put Wojo's final team over the top, though, because he was one of the most versatile slashing and passing forwards we've had).

Some feel the same way about Paulus now -- that he's really more of a scorer and emotional leader, rather than a playmaker. I was actually hoping Kyle could fill the Danny Ferry role on this year's team, but it was probably too much to expect as a freshman (though I think he can do it in his sophomore year). Scheyer has grown to take on more of a playmaker role, but I think he's still learning to make better decisions in a half-court offense (especially when he's pressured).

I know there are holes in the argument when applied to past teams -- for example, the 2003 team had Duhon, surrounded with elite talent like Dahntay and Ewing and Redick and Shelden. But Duhon had a really rough year, Dahntay and Daniel were heads down penetrators with very limited passing ability, and Shelden and JJ were just freshmen. 2004 was more like it, especially with Deng.

But since Duhon's graduation, it's been rougher going. It would certainly be great to have a big, back to the basket post presence, but I feel the lack of a more dynamic playmaker among recent teams more acutely.

[Duvall]

BTW, great big man =/= wins in the tournament. Ask Roy Hibbert. We were also outrebounded by a GUARD. We just need to be much more tenacious on the glass.

That's the frustrating thing about Saturday's loss - we've gotten used to seeing Duke get beaten on the glass by bigger and more athletic frontlines, but the team has frequently overcome that disadvantage with solid rebounding by the guards and wings. Obviously that didn't happen Saturday.

[Bluedawg]

Elton Brand, Shelden Williams and Carlos Boozer were all technically "forwards." Your boy Hansbrough is a forwared. He's 6'8". What do you define as a center? And Brian Zoubek is certainly big. He certainly plays with his back to the basket...

Hansbrough is more effective facing the basket. His 10' shot has made him POY. Other than that he is a wide body

My point is still solid and you have helped make it. Who is coming up who fits the mold you describe. We have forwards who play better facing the basket. We need someone who can play with his back to the basket like Sheldon.

[Jumbo]

The clear answer is yes. We need to win more games in the tournament.

Sweet! Where can I order, say, a six-pack of those?

Like it or not the regular seasons means nothing, especially if the ACC remains as weak as it was this year. The only mark of success in college basketball is to go deep into the tournament on a regular basis.

Why do they play all those games, then? It is a sad, sad thing to not be able to enjoy the journey, and only remember your team's last game. Really, really sad.

Our team is not made to do that right now.

Why not? Next year's team will be talentd, experienced (finally) and absurdly deep.

I don't think we have to win it every year,

Really? Damn! I was sure that we'd finally find a college team that would come along to win the Tournament every single year. Screw it -- I'm not watching college hoops anymore.

but if this trend continues I can see being really excited if Duke makes the Sweet 16 and to be honest I would hate that.

I agree. Who wants to get excited?

I was a grad student at Vandy a few years back when they made the Sweet 16. I was amazed at the buzz around town just for getting into the second weekend of play.

Uh, why? Forty-eight teams had already seen their seasons come to an end over four days. To be one of the last 16 standing is fun for anyone. You have a game to look forward to. Only 15 other teams could say the same thing.

Sure making it that far is a great thing for a school like Vandy, but it never has (at least not in a long while) been a big deal for Duke and when it becomes so we can pretty much know at that time that we are not an elite program.

Really? Gee, somehow I managed to celebrate every time we made the Sweet 16 over the last , say, 22 years -- including the 10 times we moved on to the Final Four. And then I celebrated again. Would you say we were an elite period over that time?

I'm scared that a few more 1 and done or 2 and done seasons and its going to be that way quicker than we would all like to admit.

And I'm scared that a meteor is going to destroy the entire East Coast. Who says we're going to have "a few more 1 and done or 2 and done seasons?" Why on earth would you assume the worst?

Now the next question is what should we do? That I'll leave up to Coach K.

That sounds reasonable.

I respect the heck out of the guy and I trust that he will have an answer, but I would suggest that new ideas, new influence and new perspectives can be a huge advantage in a fluid situation.

What about in a "flu" situation?

I love our assistant coaches, but I often wonder if they ever feel like (other than Dawkins) that they can tell Coach no. Speaking truth to power can be hard, especially when that power is a person that you idolize and were totally sold on as a 17 year old kid.

That's a reasonable observation.

Again that's K's decision to make not ours, but in my mind that would be where I would start.

Start with what? Emboldening your assistants? That sounds pretty good. Forcing them out? Not so much.

[Nugget]

I tend to agree with both Jumbo and Yancem -- something seemed to be missing the last 3 weeks, and it is very hard to put a finger on what (as it would be to over-react if, as has been reported, much of the team has been afflicted with the flu), other than the obvious, like not landing Patrict Patterson or having McRoberts not turn out to be the equal of Hansbrough, which certainly seemed like it could/should be the case when both of them came in.

I don't agree with those who've suggested that the difference is Duke not recruiting true centers or true back to their basket bangers like Shelden and Elton. Those two players were aberrational. Coach K achieved much (most?) of his success in the 80s and early 90s without really either a true center or normally a real defensive post presence.

Much as I love his effort, it seems to me that the biggest "problem" (to the extent that there is one) with this team starts with the point guard spot, where Greg has largely proved unable to generate the kind of consistent ball pressure that we need to generate the turnovers (and open-court scoring opportunities) that the defense has to create to off-set our traditional relative lack of defensive rebounding. Similarly, he has largely proved unable to beat opposing points off the dribble (or even to use high ball screens to get into the paint off the dribble) to make plays for the others. It feels awful to point to Greg as the source of a "problem," given how well and how hard be played this year, especially with his dramatic improvement in not turning the ball over and his clutch shooting. But, his physical limitations as compared to Hurley or Duhon or J-will or Avery or Amaker do impact the ability to do the things that have been so critical to our success over the years.

We camoflouged that relative weakness beautifully for most of the season, with DeMarcus, Gerald and Jon taking much of the responsibility for beating their men off the dribble, but doing it under control and then kicking to open shooters. That, to me, more than anything else is what seemed to go away the last 3 weeks -- we seemed (just my perception of course) to be much less patient running the drive and kick offense, driving under control and making the extra pass to open shooters than we did for the first 2/3 of the season.

Maybe that was a function of Kyle and DeMarcus and Jon getting cold from 3 point range. Or, maybe it was a function of the team playing from behind more often and slightly panicking into shooting the first available shot or maybe it was a function of guys pressing too hard to "make a play" by rashly taking it themselves for 1 on 1 moves.

Anyhow, I don't see much to "improve" on systemically, other than to keep doing the things Coach K is doing, continue to try to recruit full rosters of players, rather than just 10-11 as Coach K could in the pre-early entry era, continue to bring in hard-working, unselfish players like all of the guys on the current team (who have represented Duke in the best way possible), and, perhaps, to focus on finding more players who are more suited to the traditional Duke PG role of hellish on-ball defense and taking people off the dribble on offense -- hopefully we already have such a player on our roster in Nolan Smith. Personally, I think Nolan's development is a critical factor for our success next season.

[mgtr]

And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

This is an absolutely key point. There can't be a coach in the country who wouldn't jump at the chance to build a team around those three.

I think this quote ought to be a sticky for the whole summer!

[Jumbo]

7-22 1-2 7-8 2 9 11 4 22 3 2 3 0 40

you are missing the point. If Kyle didn't have to spend his time banging with bigger men and could play his position he could be more effective.

West Virginia went small. Smalligan only played five minutes. Kyle wasn't playing against anyone big against West Virginia. I'm not saying that guarding big men over the course of the year didn't wear him down. But he didn't have that issue against West Virginia. He largely guarded guys who weren't particularly big and didn't do much offensively.

[Jumbo]

Hansbrough is more effective facing the basket. His 10' shot has made him POY. Other than that he is a wide body

His face-up jumper is a nice addition. He makes his living on the block, grabbing boards, posting up, getting to the foul line.

My point is still solid and you have helped make it.

What point was that?

Who is coming up who fits the mold you describe. We have forwards who play better facing the basket. We need someone who can play with his back to the basket like Sheldon.

What good does it do to lament recruiting misses? We have who we have. Zoubek is big. He plays with his back to the basket. Why don't we hope that he improves like Aaron Gray did at Pitt? And who is "Sheldon?"

[duke03]

28-6, 13-3.

When you miss shots, it's hard to win.

Yes, but this misses the larger point. It is harder for THIS TEAM to win when it's missing (three point) shots because it had no other alternative. Henderson was the only person who could be relied on to drive to the basket and score, and we had no dependable inside presence. In other words, when the long range shots weren't falling, THERE WAS NO PLAN B. When most teams are in a stretch of 15 straight misses from three, they'd shift gears. But this team really only had one gear. Every team, no matter its strengths, will struggle at times. It's how (or rather, "if") a team adjusts to those struggles that enables it to go far in the NCAA tournament. I submit that this Duke team was simply unable to make any such adjustments.