Is it time for Duke to change some things?

[dukie8]

And I think we're going to be REALLY good next year, because we'll have three elite players -- Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson with a boatload of depth behind them.

i don't think that anyone doubts that singler, scheyer and g will be really good next year. the problem is that basketball is a team game and, those 3 really good players likely still will be without a low post presence and a pg who can create on the offensive end and defend on the defensive end. these 2 deficiencies were repeated debated on here during the year with many believing that you can overcome them. i didn't think so and i still don't think so. if you were starting an nfl team with brady, TO and LT, but paired them up with the texans' offensive line from 2 years ago, they are going to be severely limited in what they can do.

hopefully nolan, lance and zoubek each has a great summer and makes massive improvements because, if they don't, i don't believe these super 3 can overcome the deficiencies mentioned above. yes, we will win games and make the ncaat, but, no, we will not be competing for a nc or making it to the ff. it is just too much to overcome.

[Bluedawg]

But what can we do about that other than hope to land the recruits we're chasing?
(I also disagree that you need to control the paint to win in basketball, or need a low-post scorer to win. You can get to the FT line with a great PG, for instance. Several of Duke's great teams haven't been inside-oriented.)

I know we disagree on the strategic importance of the paint, even though i feel the Clemson ACCT game showed it. times have changed and i feel an athletic "big man" has almost become a necessity.

My concern with recruiting is that I don't see us really chasing big men. I see the recruits coming onto Cameron and they all seem to fit the same mold... tall, lean forwards. i can't believe with Coach K's reputation and success in getting players in the NBA that every big man turns him down.

[Bluedawg]

If somehow we came into this tournament shooting the lights out like we were at the beginning of the season and we just lit those two teams up like we could have, you would all be saying how much fun this team is to watch and how great it is that duke plays this renegade style of beautiful basketball (like we were saying at the beginning of the year).

teams figured out that without a presence in the paint they could set up defense a step or two further out and take our shooters out of their comfort zone. A low post presence frees up the shooters to hit their spots.

[miramar]

Bluedawg and others have noted that while announcers say that guards win tournaments, it is really the frontcourt that does it for you.

As partial proof, Florida is the only team to win back to back titles since Duke. They had good players all over, but their frontcourt was clearly superior to their backcourt. Taureen Green, their point guard, was good but not great. Their shooting guard (whose name escapes me) was very accurate, but was successful mostly because he was left open so much.

Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, and Al Horford were absolutely first rate, and they even had a pretty good big man off the bench.

[Karl Beem]

I consider Brewer a guard.

[miramar]

I consider Brewer a guard.

We can split the difference and say that Brewer is a swing man, but at 6-9 he's not your typical guard.

[DukeVu]

Read earlier that Zoubek would be spending the summer at BIG MAN camps and playing games. Maybe he will learn something there. Let us hope that he gets to use what he learns.

[Bluedawg]

I consider Brewer a guard.

according to NBAdraft.net

Corey Brewer
Birthday:3/5/1986NBA Postion:Small Forward Class:JuniorHt:6-8Wt:185College Team:FloridaHometown:Portland, TNHigh School:Portland

[Bluedawg]

Read earlier that Zoubek would be spending the summer at BIG MAN camps and playing games. Maybe he will learn something there. Let us hope that he gets to use what he learns.

Zoubek said Saturday that he will work on improving his leg strength and also will hone his skills at big-man camps in Las Vegas and Florida. He believes, after missing nine games this season and playing sparingly as a freshman, he also needs to play, so he'll look to join summer leagues either in Philadelphia, near his New Jersey home, or in Raleigh.

Source: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/1010998.html

[Classof06]

Read earlier that Zoubek would be spending the summer at BIG MAN camps and playing games. Maybe he will learn something there. Let us hope that he gets to use what he learns.

With the progress Brian has shown in him limited time since returning from injury, it's ridiculous to think that if he stays healthy he won't improve substantially. If Brian stays healthy and does what he has to do this summer, he could easily be the surprise of the preseason in November.

I love Wojo but Brian going to big man camps and getting knowledge from people that actually played in the post is going to help him a lot. I said it in another thread but one of the CBS announcers made a great point about Zoubek during the Belmont game and it's that his base is way too narrow. If Brian can widen his stance, he'll dramatically reduce his "travels". With the amount of contact that goes on in the post on the D-1 level, being 7-1 with a narrow base is an easy way to get pushed around and shuffle the feet. Simple as that.

[bdh21]

Every big game we're in, we're being outrebounded and killed inside (WVU 45 reb, Duke 19).

Thoughts??

NOTE: This year's Duke teams allowed fewer offensive rebounds (as a percentage of opponents missed shots) than the 2004, 2005, or 2006 teams. YES! This was a better defensive rebounding team than Duke had in Shelden's last three years!!

2004: 35.4%
2005: 34.7%
2006: 36.8%
2008: 33.8% of opponents misses rebounded by opponent

Even 2001's opponent OffReb% allowed was 33.7%, identical to this year's team.

Folks, this Duke team had issues, yes. But look for them somewhere other than rebounding.

[Acymetric]

NOTE: This year's Duke teams allowed fewer offensive rebounds (as a percentage of opponents missed shots) than the 2004, 2005, or 2006 teams. YES! This was a better defensive rebounding team than Duke had in Shelden's last three years!!

2004: 35.4%
2005: 34.7%
2006: 36.8%
2008: 33.8% of opponents misses rebounded by opponent

Even 2001's opponent OffReb% allowed was 33.7%, identical to this year's team.

Folks, this Duke team had issues, yes. But look for them somewhere other than rebounding.

What about OUR offensive rebounding? How does that compare in those same years?

[Constantstrain 81]

In the "old" days (as an '81 grad, I qualify), a player could come in and work his way up. If he was an extremely talented player (Laettner, Ferry), he got minutes and contributed even as a freshman. If he was a project, he took a little more time (Abdelnaby, Tony Lang, Cherokee Park). In today's fast-moving atmosphere, that won't cut it. Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek - labeled clear failures after two years when they still have marvelous potential.

Our big man situation next year:

Forward: - Kyle Singler. Great rookie season. Immense talent. Perhaps fell in love too much with the 3 point shot after a nice stretch of shooting in mid-season. His misses deflated him, deflated him, and took him out of rebounding position - not a great combination. Can guard anyone from centers to point guards and understands team defense. 3rd team ACC, ACC Rookie of the Year. Will have a great season.

Forward: Dave McClure. Good comeback season. Seems much more relaxed and conditioned now. Tenacious defender, good rebounder, cool and calm. K seems to pull him early when he appears hesitant to take his shot. He is a good shooter - just needs to regain that trust in him shot. Will come off the bench to spell the 4 or the 5. Will have a strong senior season - not with the total numbers, but on the court, on the bench, and in the locker room.

Forward: Lance Thomas. Two years now. He is 6'8". He is not strong enough yet to bang (often grabs rebounds and then has them knocked away), he is not quick enough to play a tall 3 position. He can fill in for the 5, but is still not skilled enough at positioning or team defense to be truly effective again a very good player. He probably makes shots all day long in practice, but is very hesitant to put up anything but a layup. To be more effective - he needs strength (off-season work) and several consistent moves/shots. He has them - he just needs to have the courage and confidence to take them.

Center: Brian Zoubek. If he is talented enough to come in and play some good minutes after an absolute zero off-season, imagine what he can do with conditioning, strength, footwork, etc. This was a player who mentally carried his high school team despite double and triple teams. He has the stature and the size. He has the mentality. He needs conditioning, strength, and footwork. God, please grant him the opportunity to get it and don't let him get hurt again. Zoubek will be a quality 20 minutes plus next year, maybe even a starter.

Those are four good talents. They won't block tons of shots - but they can score, get rebounds, and play defense. Conditioning, strength, and footwork is key for two of them, confidence for all.

Let's celebrate who we have - it is a good group. If Lebron James decides to come to Duke, then we'll work him in. Until then -- go Devils.

[duke03]

Scheyer did it repeatedly against WVA (or got to the line). Nelson did it all year. Singler did it earlier in the year. It's unfortunate that the last two guys couldn't do it against WVA.


So what would you like K to have done about that on Saturday?



Sure there was. Duke tried getting to the hoop. But WVA cut off the drives and Duke missed some easy finishes. (A healthy DeMarcus finishes a bunch of his misses in the paint yesterday. You'll never convince me otherwise.)



Duke tried to get to the basket.



Given Duke's current personnel, what other adjustments could have been made?

This wasn't intended to fault K. I think you agree with my larger point, which is that we lacked the players to actually accomplish these goals (we can agree to disagree re DeMarcus). The point is not that K didn't make the right adjustments, it's that the current personnel wasn't capable of effectuating any adjustments. When your players aren't able to adjust, your team isn't as good as its seeding would otherwise suggest.

[Rudy]

If he can realize the potential he showed in his first Blue/White game as a freshman, Duke will be very, very good next year. Do any of you remember how he totally schooled McRoberts in the first half of that scrimmage, both offensively and defensively? Big IF but I can dream, can't I?

[Defenserules]

The Zoo will be open and ready for business this coming year. I hear in addtion to the big man camps that he might be joining a summer league in upstate NY or in Raleigh, which means he will be playing against top notch competition for a lot of months. I'm not sure what this will mean for his progress but I could see him making a run at first team all ACC if Tyler leaves for the ACC. That might be a bit of stretch but it is in the relm of possibility. I for one can't wait to watch him catch a pass inside the lane and finish more than once a game. On that day I for one will stand up and say. Zoo da man.

[chrisM]

Secondly, the losing team generally gets out-rebounded, because the winning team makes more shots.

It is pretty easy to account for that. We can look at more underlying causes of Duke's rebounding.

Dean Oliver's offensive rebounding percentage is a good way to account for that. The formula is OREB% = OR / (OR + DRopponent). The only flaw is it can't account for team rebounds because a box score doesn't tell you which half of the court they occurred on.

According to Ken Pomeroy, in games through Monday, the 24th of March, UNC was the number one team in the country in OREB, at 42.9%. Duke was above average, 132nd, at 33.8% per game. Davidson was the median team, with 32.8%.

In terms of defensive OREB, Duke was 218th, also at 33.8%. Now, some of the difference in two can be schematic: Davidson, who was median in OREB, is the 22nd best at defensive OREB, so they must crash the defensive boards much harder than the offensive glass. But both Duke and UCLA are top 20 in both offensive and defensive OREB, so they would be really good rebounding teams in general.

In the WVU game, WVU had an OREB% of 56.25%, and Duke had one of 15.625%. This is a massive outlier for both teams (WVU was 106th in OREB). However, I crunched the numbers for the final five games, and Duke lost the OREB% battle in three of them, and were in an exact tie with Clemson. The only team they beat in OREB% was Belmont.

Now, Ken Pomeroy suggests that in general eFG% is the most important of the four factors he tracks, followed by TO%, OREB%, and FT%. (See his site for the full definitions. n.b. FT% is FTA/FGA, not FTM/FTA.) This is not true for all teams- Michigan State, for example, is built around OREB%, so that is more important for them than TO%.

Duke was 39th in eFG%, 28th in TO%, and 56th in FT%. Defensively, they were 69th in defensive eFG%, 17th in TO%, and 75th in FT%. So they were upper quintile in the five of the eight key factors that Ken Pomeroy tracks (and just barely missed in another) but were only average in the two rebounding categories.

There are two ways of looking at that: Duke has made a schematic decision to deemphasize rebounding in favor of shooting and turnovers, and should try and become more dominant in those areas to offset their weakness OR it would be easiest to improve the rebounding and make the team more well rounded.

Chris M.