The randomness that defines March Madness

[wisteria]

I don't even want to look at my bracket now. What between Duke losing and Gtown, Pitt losing, my bracket is simply pathetic. And I have been following college basketball as close as I could ! I blame Bob Knight for talking me into choosing Pitt as my final 4. Yuck!

[devildownunder]

Oh, man, I'm happy to take this one. And include Kyle in there, for sure. Not only am I not worried about building a "consistent" team around them, I feel like we can build a top-flight team around them ... in many ways.

But, either way, I think Duke will be more versatile offensively next year. The key will be replacing Markie's D too a sufficient level. If that happens, next year's team absolutely can win a national title, and I'm hardly a blind optimist.

We'll win a bunch of games next year, barring something disastrous and out of our control. We won 28 games this year and I expect us to be better next season. But the two big things that get people giddy about duke basketball are beating north carolina and winning championships. To get our fill of that next year, we'll need to develop a post presence. We don't need kevin love but we do need somebody (or somebodies) whom other teams have to be at least aware of down low, IMO. I'd love to hear arguments that this isn't the case but can anyone name a pure spread team that has won a NC? Seriously, I'm asking.

So, with that in mind, I'm looking at our options. I haven't seen czyz yet, so I can't say much about him. maybe I'll post again if I find a little footage. But I'm not sure we don't have the answers already in the fold. I was impressed with the admittedly small steps that thomas and Z made this year. I think one more off-season of seasoning, and continued health, can make them plenty ready to provide 15 and 15 a night between the two of them. Or at the very least 12 and 12. And if Z is productive enough to stay on the floor plenty of minutes, he can give our interior D a real lift. I say this because the limitations I see for him seem to be all about repetitions and, really, figuring out how to play at the ACC level. He is still very early in his learning curve and I really look forward to his senior year, when I think he will be great. But with the talent we already have, plus Elliott Williams (whom I'm already excited about) I think Z and Thomas can be enough of a complement to get it done. Lance's upside hasn't captured my imagination as much as Z's but he's already proven to be a hard worker and I expect him to continue to improve, too. He also may ultimately prove to be more versatile than Z, even if Z has, IMO, a higher ceiling (no pun intended).

[Indoor66]

Oh, I agree completely. There is no "perfect" team, just more and less reliable teams.




That's a fair point (although Josh's HS back injuries had to be considered a giant red flag). I do remember a lot of people telling me that the class of 2005 was one of the weakest in memory. At the time I dismissed that as sour grapes over our incredible class, but now I'm not so sure.

My main argument, however, is actually related to your NCAA point. Just like the NCAAs, recruiting is absolutely filled with randomness and luck. Some guys pan out, some guys don't. I'll never let my UNC friends live down the fact that Gut said "no thanks" to JWill because they had Ron Curry and didn't need JWill's services. Anyway, because recruiting can be such a crap shoot, I strongly disagree with K's (former) MO of bringing in 2-3 years of 0-1 person classes followed by one bonanza of guys every 3-4 seasons. That, coupled with K's unwillingness (again past tense, I think/hope) to stockpile talent (iirc we still have never filled our allotment of schollys in K's tenure) just cuts things too close to survive a "disaster class" like 2005, especially when it's preceeded by 2 1-person classes and a 2-man class of Nelson and Dave.

I'm very happy to say that K seems to have recognized this problem and is bringing in 2-3 guys every season with a mix of studs and projects. I still can't figure out how "PG U" can't bring in a stud PG (Nolan averaged 1.3 assists this season and 1.4 TO's. I hope he's the future, but I'm not sold quite yet) and how our gaping hole at C hasn't attracted some top-tier recruit looking to be the next ECS. I'm not speaking rhetorically, I'm genuinely stunned at the fact. Still, it seems to be what it is, and I'd love to hear some ways that we can take what we do get (great swingmen) and turn that into a reliable monster year-in and year-out. If anyone can, I know it's K.

I tend to agree with most of your post, but as to Nolan, he played the 2 guard in high school, not point. If you watched his HS games (those televised), you could see that he did not have a Div I handle nor the skills of a Div I point guard. I am not saying he cannot develop those skills; I am saying that he did not arrive with them.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

I tend to agree with most of your post, but as to Nolan, he played the 2 guard in high school, not point. If you watched his HS games (those televised), you could see that he did not have a Div I handle nor the skills of a Div I point guard. I am not saying he cannot develop those skills; I am saying that he did not arrive with them.

Glad to hear you feel similarly, Indoor. My Nolan comments were a response to Jumbo's statement that "I also believe that Nolan Smith has it in him to be exactly what you want out of a point guard." I hope Jumbo's right, but I think your sense that Nolan is a great Dan Ewing-type player who will struggle to be a legit PG is closer to my own expectations.

[RPS]

I hope we can all keep in mind the impact one play here and one play there have left on Duke basketball. That's the game we play, the game we love. And, when you think about it, it's crazy at its core.

Great post, Jumbo. I was in Anaheim Saturday and your analysis could have played out and resulted in different endings in each of the games I saw. Have you read N.N. Taleb? I'm a big fan and his views fit with your'n pretty well, despite the wildly different contexts.

Your overall view also points in a differenct direction, I think -- our tendency to over-value the NCAA Tournament. Don't get me wrong, I think that March Madness is the greatest event in sports. But we over-value results there when evaluating the overall success (or failure) of a season. That we lost earlier than we think we should have doesn't diminish the fine season this year's team had. The season-long grind is really the best way to measure a team's success overall. Had it been offered, I'd have grabbed 28-6 before the season in a heartbeat (even though I'd have wanted to re-order the outcomes a little).

This past season was a very good one, even though I'm hoping for a bit more next time...

[Jumbo]

Would anyone object if I moved straight game analysis to the post-game thread? I sort of meant for this to be more of a meta discussion. Cool?

[gw67]

Jumbo – Thanks for starting this thread and responding to several comments. Like most fans, I was very disappointed in the loss and I really didn’t look forward to reading the Post and DBR afterwards. I think the decision to shut down for a short time was the proper approach.

I agree with you and others that next year’s team has the potential to be very good. Henderson, Singler and Scheyer are quality players and should lead the team. I’m hopeful that Zoubek and Thomas remain healthy and improve over the summer. I’m not sure what to make of Paulus and Smith. I disagree with one post that Smith is a better ballhandler. IMO, Paulus is a better ballhandler, passer and outside shooter while Smith is a better defensive player and a better all around offensive player. As of today, I still see Smith as an outstanding 2G who reminds me of Daniel Ewing. He can do it all offensively – long range and mid range jumpers, drives to the hoop and finishing on fast breaks. However, setting up and passing to a teammate seems to be an afterthought. Toward the end of the season, it seemed to me that Scheyer often ran the offense when he and Smith were in the game. Perhaps being a playmaker is not that big a deal in an offense that depends on one-on-one play and kick outs.

I agree with most of what you stated in your posts. I have a small disagreement with your description of the Illinois team as a drive and kick team. That was a very small part of their offense. They were an outstanding passing team who made the extra pass to find the open man and their big guys play a bunch close to the basket. They were not like this year’s Duke team, IMO.

gw67

[rtnorthrup]

Feel free to move my post on game thoughts.

As to your discussion about luck, I somewhat agree, but mostly disagree. In a one-and-done tournament format, there is always an element of luck, e.g. San Diego gets to play UConn without Price. Some teams were grossly overseeded (Vandy?) and some teams were grossly underseeded (Butler?) which does affect the outcome of certain games. Mostly though, the games are decided by game play. This is why I love college basketball over college football.

That said, I dont think luck describes what happened on the floor versus W.Va., which is why I posted my game thoughts.

So many things stick out in my mind from the game. Nolan Smith not blocking out the shooter on a three, allowing Ruoff to get an easy rebound which led directly to a basket. McClure not blocking out Alexander on the baseline allowing him to get a putback. Paulus putting up a 25 foot three pont shot 10 seconds into the shotclock. These are not dictated by luck, but by fundamental repititions of basketball, and should not happen this late in the year.

I am and always will be a believer that once the ball is tipped, you make your own luck. The beauty of the tournament is that in any given game, the best team does not always win, but over a six game tournament, the cream usually rises to the top.

[bfree]

Talking to me? That's cool, just reply to my post! I'm curious why you think the offense broke down... and if I could be on to some of the causes.

Would anyone object if I moved straight game analysis to the post-game thread? I sort of meant for this to be more of a meta discussion. Cool?

[Jumbo]

Talking to me? That's cool, just reply to my post! I'm curious why you think the offense broke down... and if I could be on to some of the causes.

I was actually replying to rnorthrup. But your post could move, too, if you don't mind.

[devildeac]

A guy I know said to me that he was sorry my school lost. He was talking about Cornell. Funny, I didn't know that they had. Really didn't care.

I have been a Duke fan for a lot of years; I also am a Georgetown fan for just about as long. I didn't get until that moment, when that guy said that he was really rooting for Cornell to win, the difference between me and most of the rest of you. For me it hurts, but for you guys it is different.

This team deserved better; you guys deserved better. I wish luck had played out differently; I wish it for the team and I wish it for you guys.

I wonder now what it would have been like to have gone to Duke, to have a basketball tradition that is fused with the great memories of a wonderful college experience, that allows that experience to come alive each time Duke takes the court. For me and my boyz, those feelings get animated much less frequently--somebody pops in from out of town, you pop in on somebody else, there is a wedding or something, a reunion every five years, and an occasional event like last year's Duke Cornell semi-final lax game.

BTW, while I am sad for you guys, I ain't gonna worry about you, even if you don't have a super quick point guard in the pipeline, or a heavy duty center. See, on that score, I watched your team play this year.

And, hell, we all knew going in that it was a long shot because of size, but no one could have predicted just how creative K and this team could be in creating inside out play from the wings, using a versatile 6'8" to play a myriad of rolls, and son of a gun, with just a little bit of luck, we still wouldn't be saying "what if, at least not yet.

It has been an honor to share the field of battle with you my Duke friends. A real honor. Cornell lost, for real? Bummer.

Jumbo's posts on this thread and the one above have really put this season and its disheartening ending into an easier perspective to accept and not be 'on the ledge'. We spent 3/21-3/26 on vacation and read/watched very little hoops for 6 days (yea, go ahead, bash us . Hearing updates from the WVU game were quite sad on our trip and make us think 'what might have been'. The most depressing thought/report/realization was that we gave up 44 points in the 2nd half. That makes me think back to Tom Butters calling K back from the airport as he was heading back to Army to offer him the job. Why? Because after discussing with his committee, he wanted a coach with all of Knight's good qualities and none of his bad (Knight's words, not mine). The most important quality was that Butters wanted to win on the nights when his team shot only 30-odd%. He realized/knew that ultimately, defense would win games/championships for him/Duke. We had too many halves the 2nd half of this year giving up 40+ points and that is what bothers me more than anything else. That is not Duke hoops. Illness? Fatigue? Youth? All of the above? I don't know-as the saying goes 'I don't have 800+ wins and 3 NCs so don't ask me.

In a way, I am glad we were away and have had the time to put things in perspective and read the positives AND negatives about the year, especially the last 4-6 weeks. I am glad the administrators shut down the boards for the time they did and reflective positive thinking and constructive criticism have prevailed.

I am especially/sincerely thankful for folks like Jumbo and Greybeard (who I assume have no 'connection' to Duke like alumni/employment/offspring and/or relatives attending) and can/will post their rational (mostly ) thoughts/analyses/admirations about our success AND failures during rather sad times like this. To read that others 'outside'(no offense intended) the program feel this way about the Blue Devils really softens the very hard ending we all experienced one week ago. Thank you again for being on the ride with us.

[Jumbo]

I am especially/sincerely thankful for folks like Jumbo and Greybeard (who I assume have no 'connection' to Duke like alumni/employment/offspring and/or relatives attending)

Why on earth would you assume I have no connection to Duke?

[mr. synellinden]

So much of what happens in March is based on randomness or luck.

Try this thought exercise first. Imagine how different your perspective on Duke basketball might be if someone had deflected Grant Hill's pass to Christian Laettner, or if Laettner's shot had gone in-and-out. Imagine if Laettner's shot hadn't gone down against UConn. Imagine if Anderson Hunt's had for UNLV. All three things could have easily happened. How would you see Duke basketball without two fewer national titles and three fewer Final Fours?

Now imagine these things had happened: Antonio Lang gets his finger on Scotty Thurman's three-pointer; Trajan Langdon drills a 3 on Ricky Moore; Jason Williams hits the last FT vs. Indiana or the refs call Jared Jeffries for a foul on the rebound; UConn gets called for a hack on J.J.'s final drive in 2004. All were easily possible. Again, imagine how differently you might view Duke basketball.

I was thinking about this very topic today. More specifically, how Duke was a few plays away from having 7 or 8 or even 9 national titles or a few away from having only 1 - or none.

1986, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2004 were all years where a bounce a different way here or there and we might me cutting down the nets. People sometimes forget about 1998 but we were up 18 against KY in the regional final with about 9 mins left. I have always been convinced that we would have beaten Stanford and Utah in the Final Four. I could list all the plays that could have/should have gone differently but it would be too agonizing. Do we go on to win it all in 2002 if Boozer sticks the putback? I don't know. I think Maryland might have had something to say about that. Would we have beaten G.Tech in 2004 in the title game? I think so.

On the other hand, the final fours we went to in the late 80s and early 90s all involved close games where we could have been sent home before the final four. Of course there were the two Laettner shots and there was a 1 pt win against Rhode Island in the second round in 1988. What if Jason Williams gets called for that foul against Jason Gardner in 2001? What if Jason Kidd doesn't get that offensive rebound in 1993? What if ... The NCAA tournament is such a crap shoot.

Think about all the talent Kansas has had since they last won the title in 1988 and all the years they suffered huge upsets in the tournament.

On the other topic in this thread -- we are going to be extremely good next year. Let's not forget how good we were for 4/5 of the season with all our weaknesses. When you go 28-6 and return the talent we do, you have a pre-season top 5 team.

[mgtr]

^I absolutely agree about next year. True, we lose Markie, but we gain two new players (at least one of them is bound to be good) plus our freshmen turn into sophomores. Singler will still be good, and I expect Smith and King to be much, much better. Henderson should be healthy, and, unless luck plays us for a fool, Zoubek will give us a solid 20 minutes per game. I think we start out as a top 5 team.
However, as I see the problem, Coach K has his team in absolutely first rate condition at the beginning of the season, plus they are solid in the fundamentals. So, Duke runs over a lot of teams early on. But, the other teams catch up, and we don't look so good. Nothing wrong with starting strong (in their heyday, that was a key to the Celtics winning so many games -- they won all the early games, which count just as much as the later games) but as the year goes on, you need to continue to improve. We have failed to improve as the other teams do. We whipped both Davidson and Wisconsin -- could we do that now?
These are just questions I raise, for which I do not know the answers. However, for the second year in a row, we are sitting at home watching on TV instead of playing.
As fans of all sports say, wait until next year. We'll get them then.

[devildeac]

Why on earth would you assume I have no connection to Duke?

Just as I said, an assumption. We have a goodly number of posters who speak of their graduation year, have their posting names with some connection to Duke, their training, or their game 'experiences' at Duke and I don't recall any discussions/mentions in the past of that with your posting. That is NOT meant to be insulting or condescending or offensive in any way. I had just figured you were in the group of posters who really admired the program over the years and had a significant 'outside' interest in the program as a journalist and with your NBA connections/discussions (and with no Duke journalism school, that further led me down the wrong path, I guess ). Sorry about the assumption. No harm intended. Feel free to delete this or take it off-line or to PM if you would like.