Senior attrition of each ACC team

[whereinthehellami]

The Terps lose a ton of experience, points, rebounds, blocked shots and steals. They return four experienced players but will rely heavily on sophs who didn’t play much last year and freshmen. I expect that 8 of their top 10 players will be freshmen or sophs. They will be a much weaker team but I expect the ACC to be down next year so they may be able to finish 6-9 with a little luck.

gw67

The key players they return are Gist (6-8), Vasquez (6-5), Osby (6-8), and Hayes (6-3). Gist and Vasquez had a much bigger impact then Osby and Hayes. Besides the startes they lost, they also lost key role players in Will Bowers and Parrish Brown.

Maryland is going to have problems generating points and are going tobe really thin, making Coach William's desired defensive pressure near impossible to employ.

[gw67]

where - I don't have any argument with your post. They could fall to the bottom 3rd of the ACC next year but I would be surprised if that happened. Somewhere in the lower middle is more likely.

I expect Gist to be one of the top players in the league next year, particularly, if there are a bunch of defections to the NBA. He has shown steady improvement in his game during his three years at Maryland and has improved his scoring, rebounding, shot blocks and shooting stats every year. There will be a lot of pressure on him next year but I expect him to excell. He will be backed up by two freshmen, Gregory and Walker.

Both Vasquez and Hayes were good ballhandlers and passers this past year and each needs to up his scoring by about 3-6 points per game. I don't think this will be an issue for Vasquez but Hayes needs to look more for his shot.

This leaves the two biggest question marks - wing and center. At wing, they have Milbourne, a rising soph who rarely got into games and a guard from Montrose Christian, Bowie. Both played at top programs (Milbourne played at Oak Hill) and are/were considered mid-level prospects. I saw Bowie play on TV and he is a very good ballhandler (probably the backup to the guards) and defensive player.

At center they have Osby, who at 6-6, is limited. They also have their top recruit, Dupree, and a redshirt freshman, Burney, who was an outstanding shot blocker in high school.

The Terps are apparently still trying to recruit another guard/wing.

They will have plenty of bodies and all the newcomers, with the exception of Dupree, are considered good run-jump athletes. As a Terps fan, I would prefer a few more skilled basketball players but it ought to be an interesting year for the locals.

gw67

[whereinthehellami]

I was suprised to see Gist's shooting stats were as high as they were, for a 6-8 frontcourt player. He was 54% from the field, 43% (only 21 attempts) from 3, and 71% from the line. I could definately see him making a run at All- ACC honors next year. He was also 2nd on the team in RBs at around 7 RPG.

MD could put out a solid 4 starters for next year. Vasquez, Gist, Hayes, and Osby (a reach but is active). Maryland is just missing a decent 5th player, one might emerge but there isn't alot to pick from. And their depth, well that will hold them back for sure, though alot of teams are going to be short next year.

[whereinthehellami]

ACC Teams Ranked by Player Losses from 2006-07 Rosters (through March 2007).
First number is minutes played last season by players lost to eligibility expiration, transfer, etc. The second number is points scored by departed players last season.
1. MD 3447 1494
2. VT 3701 1330
3. BC 2749 1251
4. WF 1940 872
5. FS 1786 872
6. VA 1771 805
7. MI 2257 738
8. NC 1280 482
9. DU 1196 434
10. CU 1149 452
11. NS 1377 342
12. GT 593 151

Those numbers really show how difficult it is for some teams to reload despite having some talented athletes coming back at multiple positions. MD, VT, and BC have an incredibly difficult road to climb compared to the rest of the teams in the conference. They lost three times a much as Duke did this past season. Talk about being a different team next year, they have to re-establish their whole identity.

[ACCBBallFan]

Using your weights at face value, crediting games against UNC as toughest = 12' Duke =11 ... Miami =2 and WF =1,

GA Tech by far has the easiest ACC unbalanced Schedule next year (20) based on who they play twice, without considering who they place one at home versus who they play once on the road. GA T plays Clemson, UVA and the bottom 3 of VA Tech, Miami and WF.

Next easiest is MD (25) with Duke, UVA, BC, VA T and WF.

Va Tech is third easiest (28) with GA T, MD, UVA, BC and WF.

BC (30) UNC, MD, UVA, VA T and Miami

FSU (32) UNC, NCS, CL, Miami and WF

WF (34) GA T, NCS, MD, FSU and VA T.

UVA (35) Duke, GA T, MD, BC and VA T

Duke (36) UNC, NCS, MD, UVA and Miami

UNC (37) Duke, NCS, CL, FSU and BC

NCS (37) UNC, Duke, CL, FSU and WF.

Miami (37) Duke, GA T, CL, FSU and BC

Clemson again has the toughest ACC unbalanced schedule UNC< GA T, NCS, FSU and Miami.

So this may give GA T the edge over Duke for second place, and possibly even UNC for first and also may push Miami into the cellar and cause Clemson to be on wrong side of the bubble again.

[whereinthehellami]

Using your weights at face value, crediting games against UNC as toughest = 12' Duke =11 ... Miami =2 and WF =1,

GA Tech by far has the easiest ACC unbalanced Schedule next year (20) based on who they play twice, without considering who they place one at home versus who they play once on the road. GA T plays Clemson, UVA and the bottom 3 of VA Tech, Miami and WF.

So this may give GA T the edge over Duke for second place, and possibly even UNC for first and also may push Miami into the cellar and cause Clemson to be on wrong side of the bubble again.

That is a good point. If Young and Critterton stay, they should be able to get past Duke for second place. Their frontcourt would be a nightmare for Duke, especially with the addition of Lawal.