Like many of you, I was bummed out after the loss to Clemson yesterday. That's why I decided not to comment on the game in the heat of the moment, and limited my remarks to the seeding thread. After a day to reflect, I feel a lot better. If anything, I'm just disappointed that we didn't get another crack at Carolina. C'est la vie. I'm not saying everything is perfect. I'm just saying that we shouldn't forget who we are, and what we've done, because of yesterday's result. So here are some things to remember:
-We beat the champions of the ACC (UNC), Big 10 (Wisconsin or Illinois), Southern Conference (undefeated Davidson), Ivy League (undefeated Cornell) and the Atlantic 10 (remember that ho-hum game against Temple?). That's pretty darn good. We almost added the WAC to that list, but NMSU fell to Boise State in two overtimes. And, of course, we all remember that last-second loss to the Big East champs, Pitt.
-Clemson is a
really good team, especially when they hit their FTs at a reasonable rate. Of course, since they were playing UNC today, that wasn't possible. But it's amazing the way fans of any team (not just Duke) forget to give an opponent any credit. Clemson played quite well yesterday. They have good guard, athletic bigs, balance and an outstanding press. If I were a one-seed, they're the last team I'd want to see on the 4/5 line, because they can beat anyone on a good day. (Conversely, on one of their brick-laded FT days, they're a potential first-round upset victim. Such is the nature of March). Don't think for a second that losing to Clemson is a "bad loss."
-Plus, conference play is really weird, especially conference tourney play. You know your opponents so well. You play every day, meaning scouting and preparation is limited. Look at what has gone on around the country -- it's outrageous! Georgia could win for the third time in two days today and end up in the Dance. Illinois is playing for the Big 10 title. Pitt won the Big East. Things were even crazier in the smaller conferences. San Diego beat both St. Mary's AND Gonzaga to win the WCC. Xavier went down in the A-10 tourney. VCU lost to
William & Mary. South Alabama went down in a ridiculous upset. Coppin State won the MEAC with 20 losses. The Southland had three outstanding teams -- neither of them even made the final! The list goes on. The point is that it is very difficult to extrapolate results from conference tournaments and apply them to the NCAA Tourney. They are two very different animals, and every year it gets proven by some hot team that wins its conference, then goes down in the first round. (See Iowa vs. Northwestern State, 2006).
-Before the year, we were comparing this group to some version similar to the 1996-97 and 2002-03 teams. When we started 22-1, some people got excited and mentioned 1997-98, but that team was just loaded. I think we're somewhere in between the preseason and midseason comparisions, which is good enough to make a run.
-I think people are still tremendously scarred by last year, and are letting that experience cloud their judgment of this team. Those experiences are night and day. We didn't lose eight of our last 12. We won six of our last 10. One of those losses was a tight one to the top team in the country. Another was to Clemson, and you know how I feel about them. Miami should be Tourney-bound. This team is infinitely tougher than last year, has so many more scoring options and is so much deeper and healthier that it's just a silly comparison.
-I'm not saying we don't have weaknesses. Of course we do. They're more glaring than the likely #1 seeds and most of the likely #2 seeds. Singler is shooting to many jumpers. Henderson's wrist has been a problem since the first UNC game. Both guys need to improve. And we have injuries. (To respond to a particularly snarky post yesterday, yup, there are some undisclosed ones too. Guys are playing through them. That doesn't mean they aren't affected, and when the info comes out in the spring like usual, it won't be an excuse. It'll be a fact.) But Duke's biggest issue, of late, has been shooting. And I'll take a shooter's chance in any game. The defense has been better of late. We actually out-rebounded Clemson. Previous teams have had weaknesses, too. Ours, by comparison, can be mild. In fact, even some of our great teams entering the tourney had more of a fatal flaw than this one. The 2006 team had two scoring options. This team still has five guys in double figures, plus a couple of other players capable of putting up big numbers on a given night.
But the idea that this is part of some trend of late-season collapses is a bit of a red herring. Of course our late-season record is worse. Why? The schedule gets so much tougher. Add in the fact that we constantly compare ourselves to Carolina and people lose perspective.
-And, we're adjusting. Constantly. That was one of the most amazing complaints I saw yesterday. This whole season has been about adjustments. K tweaked his typical four-out offense to fit one resembling the Suns' set, with a guy in the corner, more ball-screens, etc. Since then, changes have been constant. King was a major threat. King faded into the background. Zoubek worked his way back, got hurt, worked his way back again and now is getting big minutes. Paulus and Smith split minutes. Smith barely got off the bench. Smith came through a big game against Clemson. Scheyer stood in the corner for half the year, then finally got the ball more on the wing, and is now Duke's backup PG with Smith moving off the ball. We're running fewer side pick-and-rolls. We're dumping the ball to Zoubek on the block. Dave McClure all but disappeared, then responded with a fantastic ACC Tourney. We've pressed, trapped and even gone to a zone. We've changed our substitution pattern constantly, even going with a Blue/White look to open the game in the ACC Tourney. And i'm sure K has some more wrinkles planned.
-Plus, the field is somewhat weak. There are teams I want to avoid (Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, USC as well as a few others that I mentioned yesterday). But there are plenty of other teams that will be seeded anywhere from 3-7 who don't scare me at all. And a number of dangerous mid-majors lost in their conference tourneys. Again, it's all about matchups.
-Most importantly, the team and coaching staff are confident. So why shouldn't we join them? I don't know how well Duke will do in the Tourney. I don't have "expecatations" (because that's a dirty word), except for the fact that I expect that Duke will be
in every game with a chance to win. Could we lose earlier than we'd like? Sure. Do we have the potential to make a run? Absolutely.
Finally, I'm going to link a bunch of old threads (many started by me, I sheepishly confess) that make for interesting reading in retrospect. Take a look, get yourselves out of your funk, stop preparing for the worst, and enjoy whatever is left of the season. Good days are ahead, and hopefully that includes the next three weeks.
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...ent+experience
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...hlight=predict
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...hlight=predict
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...hlight=predict
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...hlight=predict
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...highlight=maui