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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    Charting Duke vs. Clemson II

    Wow. These plus/minus numbers from the ACC Tourney game are the most stunning of the season, both from the perspective of individuals and lineups. I don't even know what to make of these stats, but you all should compare them to the cumulative numbers from the season before I update those. On to the numbers...

    Individuals
    Brian Zoubek 44-26 (+18)
    Nolan Smith 39-24 (+15)
    Taylor King 18-8 (+10)
    Dave McClure 38-29 (+9)
    Jon Scheyer 60-53 (+7)
    DeMarcus Nelson 59-71 (-12)
    Gerald Henderson 23-37 (-14)
    Greg Paulus 41-56 (-15)
    Kyle Singler 39-55 (-16)
    Lance Thomas 9-31 (-22)

    Per 40 Minutes
    Taylor King +66.7
    Brian Zoubek +36
    Nolan Smith +31.6
    Dave McClure +24
    Jon Scheyer +9.7
    DeMarcus Nelson -16
    Greg Paulus -26.1
    Kyle Singler -26.7
    Gerald Henderson -28
    Lance Thomas -62.3

    Lineups
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Zoubek 11-4 (+7)
    Smith-Scheyer-McClure-King-Zoubek 9-2 (+7)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Zoubek (x3) 4-3, 0-0, 7-5 = 11-8 (+3)
    Paulus-Smith-Henderson-King-Zoubek 4-2 (+2)
    Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-King-Singler 2-0 (+2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas 2-0 (+2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 11-10 (+1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Zoubek 7-6 (+1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
    Paulus-Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 0-0 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 0-0 (0)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Singler 3-4 (-1)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek 2-3 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 2-3 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek 0-1 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-Singler 5-7 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas 0-3 (-3)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas 0-5 (-5)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x3) 2-5, 3-2, 0-9 = 5-16 (-11)
    Last edited by Jumbo; 03-16-2008 at 11:13 PM.

  2. #2
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    I believe Brian Zoubek has earned a spot in the starting line-up. It will be interesting to see what, if any, changes Coach K makes for the NCAAT. I expect little to change, but Zoubek starting over Thomas is a possibility.
    Bob Green

  3. #3
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I believe Brian Zoubek has earned a spot in the starting line-up. It will be interesting to see what, if any, changes Coach K makes for the NCAAT. I expect little to change, but Zoubek starting over Thomas is a possibility.
    You might not be wrong, but it also might be for another reason. Singler/Thomas might not be the best combo to play together anymore. Duke got outscored 26-5 with that duo on the floor together.

  4. Great numbers as always Jumbo. How often do you see our starting lineup as the bottom 5 individual, all in the negative, and as the worst overall team lineup? I think I also suggested starting Z in another thread, but can't seem to find it. Curious if you (and others) think these numbers are meaningful and suggest the need for a change of lineup or if they are so far off the average that we should just chalk them up to one bad/anomalous game and recommit to our present lineup.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Zoubs

    I'd be surprised if Zoubek doesn't start in our first game in the NCAAs. Might even see Singler come off the bench.

    The numbers certainly reflect what I thought I was seeing. I'm surprised Nolan was so much better than Paulus, however. (Please, let's not restart that debate.)

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    I would expect some major changes in the starting lineup, since the "first five" didn't do too well. Zoubek has shown that he can compete effectively. McClure seems to have at least gained his last season's desire, and that count for a bunch.
    If Singler is tired, and is only going to shoot threes and can't hit them, what is the point? He needs to play inside more (not really his game to be a banger) because that is what the team needs at this point.
    It might be time to shift Scheyer to a starter, and bring, well, somebody else in off the bench. Maybe five somebodies.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    I would expect some major changes in the starting lineup, since the "first five" didn't do too well. Zoubek has shown that he can compete effectively. McClure seems to have at least gained his last season's desire, and that count for a bunch.
    If Singler is tired, and is only going to shoot threes and can't hit them, what is the point? He needs to play inside more (not really his game to be a banger) because that is what the team needs at this point.
    It might be time to shift Scheyer to a starter, and bring, well, somebody else in off the bench. Maybe five somebodies.
    Major changes? We're 27-5. You're not going to change starters just for the sake of it. And I know it's a cliche, but it doesn't matter who starts, it's who finishes. The worst thing you could do is throw a whole bunch of people into unfamiliar roles. I could see Zoubek for Thomas. Nothing else is changing.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Allawah, NSW Australia (near Sydney)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Wow. These plus/minus numbers from the ACC Tourney game are the most stunning of the season, both from the perspective of individuals and lineups. I don't even know what to make of these stats, but you all should compare them to the cumulative numbers from the season before I update those. On to the numbers...

    Individuals
    Brian Zoubek 44-26 (+18)
    Nolan Smith 39-24 (+15)
    Taylor King 18-8 (+10)
    Dave McClure 38-29 (+9)
    Jon Scheyer 60-53 (+7)
    DeMarcus Nelson 59-71 (-12)
    Gerald Henderson 23-37 (-14)
    Greg Paulus 41-56 (-15)
    Kyle Singler 39-55 (-16)
    Lance Thomas 9-31 (-22)

    Per 40 Minutes
    Brian Zoubek 44-26 (+18)
    Nolan Smith 39-24 (+15)
    Taylor King 18-8 (+10)
    Dave McClure 38-29 (+9)
    Jon Scheyer 60-53 (+7)
    DeMarcus Nelson 59-71 (-12)
    Gerald Henderson 23-37 (-14)
    Greg Paulus 41-56 (-15)
    Kyle Singler 39-55 (-16)
    Lance Thomas 9-31 (-22)

    Lineups
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Zoubek 11-4 (+7)
    Smith-Scheyer-McClure-King-Zoubek 9-2 (+7)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Zoubek (x3) 4-3, 0-0, 7-5 = 11-8 (+3)
    Paulus-Smith-Henderson-King-Zoubek 4-2 (+2)
    Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-King-Singler 2-0 (+2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas 2-0 (+2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 11-10 (+1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Zoubek 7-6 (+1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
    Paulus-Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Zoubek 0-0 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 0-0 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 0-0 (0)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Singler 3-4 (-1)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek 2-3 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 2-3 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek 0-1 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-Singler 5-7 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas 0-3 (-3)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas 0-5 (-5)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x3) 2-5, 3-2, 0-9 = 5-16 (-11)


    I'm not at all surprised to see Brian's name at the top of the list. The only stretch of that game during which we had any kind of rhythm on offense was when he was in during the 2nd half. And he was doing some of that scoring himself. I think, at the very least, K needs to look at a two-headed monster, rather than him Z just getting spare minutes.

    Singler's very difficult time shooting really skews some of the numbers -- not to mention the team's performance. One side benefit of more minutes for Z could be that Singler could play his natural position more, and not get beaten up so much.
    Last edited by devildownunder; 03-16-2008 at 07:26 PM. Reason: misinterpreted the stats at first.

  9. #9

    Agrees with most observations

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I believe Brian Zoubek has earned a spot in the starting line-up. It will be interesting to see what, if any, changes Coach K makes for the NCAAT. I expect little to change, but Zoubek starting over Thomas is a possibility.
    Most fans not on a rant could see Zoubek, Scheyer and McClure had good games. Paulus did too, but he was coupled with the starters who were not doing much during the game. Smith was in such a short time that I didn't notice his contribution as much.

    I agree that Zoubek's play was deserving of recognition. I believe we would have had a better chance against Clemson had he played more minutes in the second half. Actually, Scheyer also deserves a start as well based on his continuing excellent play.

    Perhaps coach K will stand pat on the starters, since he seems to prefer the smaller and more mobile teams. Scheyer coming off the bench is not all that bad if he continues to get starters minutes. I have been wondering for some time though, whether we get down in games because the starters haven't played smart ball early in the first 5 minutes.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Allawah, NSW Australia (near Sydney)
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    I would expect some major changes in the starting lineup, since the "first five" didn't do too well. Zoubek has shown that he can compete effectively. McClure seems to have at least gained his last season's desire, and that count for a bunch.
    If Singler is tired, and is only going to shoot threes and can't hit them, what is the point? He needs to play inside more (not really his game to be a banger) because that is what the team needs at this point.
    It might be time to shift Scheyer to a starter, and bring, well, somebody else in off the bench. Maybe five somebodies.
    scheyer in for singler, with kyle becoming the first man off the bench, and Z in for Thomas, with Thomas still seing regular minutes would be the two changes I would strongly consider. Part of that decision would be how would singler and thomas handle not starting, and how would the team react to them not starting. But if that's not a problem, there are some benefits to be gained from those changes. Of course, the biggest gains the team could make between now and Thursday would be good health for gerald plus a new shot of confidence for Nolan Smith, and perhaps Kyle.

  11. #11

    I like your idea

    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Major changes? We're 27-5. You're not going to change starters just for the sake of it. And I know it's a cliche, but it doesn't matter who starts, it's who finishes. The worst thing you could do is throw a whole bunch of people into unfamiliar roles. I could see Zoubek for Thomas. Nothing else is changing.

    Zoubek in the starting lineup for Thomas would free Singler from bodying up on the opposing big. Zoubek is also a scoring threat, provided the balls are passed in at his shoulder level or higher. Guys that pass to the knee level of a 7"1" center are making it hard for him.

  12. #12

    Random thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by devildownunder View Post
    scheyer in for singler, with kyle becoming the first man off the bench, and Z in for Thomas, with Thomas still seing regular minutes would be the two changes I would strongly consider. Part of that decision would be how would singler and thomas handle not starting, and how would the team react to them not starting. But if that's not a problem, there are some benefits to be gained from those changes. Of course, the biggest gains the team could make between now and Thursday would be good health for gerald plus a new shot of confidence for Nolan Smith, and perhaps Kyle.
    Some random thoughts. Z should still come in off the bench as needed. I'm not really wild about the offensive sets I see when he's in there. We dump it to him and he waves it around until he sees a cutter or, more likely, an outlet. He's really no threat to go to the basket with it. With him in there, he's clogging up the middle and taking away from the dribble, drive, kick motion. Don't get me wrong, I like Z, but . . .

    Singler has struggled but bench him? I wouldn't . . but I don't know if Kyle is physically tired, mentally tired, or both. It will be interesting to see how Coach K handles him for here on out.

    Gerald? How hurt is he? I've read (in these threads) that he just needs to recuperate for a few days and he'll be ready to go . . . I hope thats true.

    Scheyer. I remember Jumbo's Phase X discussions about how we need to get Jon out of the corner, just standing there, and get him more involved in the offense. Well, it seems to me we've done that lately by putting the ball in his hands and letting him improvise . . . actually playing a combo point/shooter role. I like it. Certainly has gotten him more involved.

    We are a flawed team but we have a lot of weapons and a lot of looks . . . Personally, I think we've run into trouble lately when we start playing one-on-one in stretches with everybody else just watching. We did that against Carolina and we did that against Clemson.

    If we can regain some of the offensive flow we've had for much of the year, I think we go Elite 8, at least.

  13. #13

    Intersting

    I was looking forward to this plus minus because I thought it would be very unusual and what I saw during the game was backed up by the numbers. Either way, as I've said all along, no judgements should be made on one game though I am interested in seeing Singler's cumulative over the last 6 games. I think he's probably had the biggest turn around over that period.

    I would absolutely not change the starting lineup based on these numbers but we really have to hope Singler gets back to his earlier play. He almost looks like one of those guys coming back from Mono or something.

  14. #14
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by devildownunder View Post
    I think, at the very least, K needs to look at a two-headed monster, rather than him Z just getting spare minutes.
    Zoubek did play 20 minutes against Clemson...

  15. #15
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    Smith was in such a short time that I didn't notice his contribution as much.
    Smith played 19 minutes. It was his best game in a while and his defense, in particular, was much improved. I thought Duke looked a lot better when he was in the game.

  16. #16
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by devildownunder View Post
    scheyer in for singler, with kyle becoming the first man off the bench, and Z in for Thomas, with Thomas still seing regular minutes would be the two changes I would strongly consider. Part of that decision would be how would singler and thomas handle not starting, and how would the team react to them not starting. But if that's not a problem, there are some benefits to be gained from those changes. Of course, the biggest gains the team could make between now and Thursday would be good health for gerald plus a new shot of confidence for Nolan Smith, and perhaps Kyle.
    Why on earth would you do something like that. Kyle Singler is a freshman who has been a key player all season who is in a funk. So, the way to get him going is to bring him off the bench for the first time in his life ... in an NCAA Tournament game? Come on. If he doesn't play well, Duke can sub. That's the whole point of having such a good bench. There's no reason to pull him from the starting lineup. It's a gesture that could do very little good potentially a lot of harm.

  17. #17
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    Allawah, NSW Australia (near Sydney)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Why on earth would you do something like that. Kyle Singler is a freshman who has been a key player all season who is in a funk. So, the way to get him going is to bring him off the bench for the first time in his life ... in an NCAA Tournament game? Come on. If he doesn't play well, Duke can sub. That's the whole point of having such a good bench. There's no reason to pull him from the starting lineup. It's a gesture that could do very little good potentially a lot of harm.
    Which is exactly why part of my post read "Part of that decision would be how would singler and thomas handle not starting". I presume coach K would know best how Kyle would respond, at least he knows better than either of us. If the psyche of the players involved is right for it, such a change can do quite a bit of good to the team, just like the move to bring scheyer off the bench.

    And the strategic reasons for it are simple. Kyle gets to come off the bench and look to get into a favourable matchup, rather than having to start against somebody else's 4 or even 5. And maybe not starting helps, rather than hurts his mindset, because he takes a bit of pressure off himself and just plays. Again, it would all depend on Singler and how K felt he would react to it.

  18. #18
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by devildownunder View Post
    Which is exactly why part of my post read "Part of that decision would be how would singler and thomas handle not starting". I presume coach K would know best how Kyle would respond, at least he knows better than either of us. If the psyche of the players involved is right for it, such a change can do quite a bit of good to the team, just like the move to bring scheyer off the bench.

    And the strategic reasons for it are simple. Kyle gets to come off the bench and look to get into a favourable matchup, rather than having to start against somebody else's 4 or even 5. And maybe not starting helps, rather than hurts his mindset, because he takes a bit of pressure off himself and just plays. Again, it would all depend on Singler and how K felt he would react to it.
    Scheyer has been coming off the bench all year and there's a big difference between making that move with him in November than doing so with a freshman in March. It's just silly to suggest.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Scheyer has been coming off the bench all year and there's a big difference between making that move with him in November than doing so with a freshman in March. It's just silly to suggest.
    It is not silly to suggest. This isn't the 1970s. Teams are younger and younger every year and freshmen are treated as much more mature contributors than they used to be. My comparison with the scheyer move has to do with the tanglible strategic impact that such a shifting of the lineup can make, not to compare singler to scheyer mentally.

    It is in no way silly to merely contemplate this move. Whether it's silly to actually do it, is something K is far better qualified than either of us to determine, specifically for the reasons I've already mentioned.

  20. #20
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    Allawah, NSW Australia (near Sydney)

    And singler isn't the big issue for me anyway

    It's how to get Zoubek into the rotation a bit more solidly and whether or not gerald is going to be able to play at his customary level physically.

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