Pre-bracket speculation!! Post here!

[devildownunder]

I was asking whether UNC and Georgetown -- if they are, say, the 1/2 seeds in the East region -- can also be placed in the same pod. For some reason, I thought the top two seeds from one region could NOT be in a pod together, but I definitely could be wrong. Obviously, the Duke/UNC example wouldn't apply, because they were in different regions.

I don't know. I haven't heard anything that says that but am not really in the know on such matters. It seems that, under the pod system, they're willing to do just about anything to get teams playing closer to home, so unless there is something forbidding it, I don't think they'd hesitate.

[feldspar]

We're gonna be a 3 seed. I have no doubt about this. Not that we don't deserve a 2, but it's just what's going to end up happening.

[dukie8]

We're gonna be a 3 seed. I have no doubt about this. Not that we don't deserve a 2, but it's just what's going to end up happening.

i don't think it really matters if we are a 2 and wisc is our 3 or we are a 3 and wisc is our 2. odds are one of both of us won't be around for the regional finals anyway.

[HK Dukie]

No ACC representation could be a contributing factor to a #3.

The diff between 2-3 does matter for 2nd round game (historically), but I don't see much diff between 2-3 seed teams this year (except for the Kansas-Texas loser as a potential #2) so I don't really care beyond that round of 32 game.

Just three, four-team tournaments to go! 6-0 baybe!

[wisteria]

Wisconsin is going to win tomorrow.

Everyone seems to think either Wisky or us takes the final 2. Is it possible that we both take 2, but g-town falls to 3? They just lost today. They have similar record as us, but their OOC is much worse.

[devildownunder]

But, as Troublemaker does an excellent job of illustrating, there just aren't many compelling contenders fora 2-seed. I can't see Xavier getting one coming out of the A-10. Yes, they are only 2 spots behind Duke in the RPI, but Duke's SOS is much better, Xavier plays in a lousy conference and they just lost to St. Joseph's twice in the last four games.

Stanford? RPI is 16, SOS is 56. Stanford's toughest OOC opponent was Siena -- and the Cardinal LOST that game. Next-toughest was a one-point win at Texas Tech.

Louisville? RPI is 13, 24-8 record, back-to-back losses to finish the season.

Drake? Michigan State? Butler? Pitt? Not a chance.

That leaves Wisconsin. If you like Wisconsin, it's because you believe in poll rankings and rewarding big-conference champions. But here's the thing (and the committee knows this): The Big 10 is AWFUL. It's sixth in RPI. The ACC is first. Wisconsin's RPI is 12th with an SOS of 61. I don't think anyone on the committee believes Wisconsin is a better team than Duke, and a 24-point drubbing in Cameron has to be a factor. In fact, it's pretty much a dream for me to have Duke get a 2-seed and Wisconsin endup as our 3.

While we're at it, here are teams I'd like to avoid: Notre Dame, Louisville, Michigan State, UConn and USC. There are others, but those are at the top of the list. I think in the post-game drama people are forgetting how mediocre much of the country is. People are also forgetting that a) conference games are always tougher b) The ACC is really good and c) Clemson, really, really good. That team is easily capable of a deep Tourney run. I felt as much before this weekend, and nothing has changed my mind (to be fair, they also are capable of being one of those bandwagon teams that gets a terrible matchup in a 4-13 or 5-12 game, misses a bunch of FTs, and gets bounced).

I guess I'm just saying that we shouldn't let today's disappointing outcome cloud our judgment of what's out there around the country and where Duke stands in comparison.

Rankings don't matter much to me as far as where I think teams will be seeded but finishes in conference tournaments do. I think Pitt has a very real chance of getting a 2 seed based mainly on winning the BE tourney. As you say, there are no real giants out there, so I think the committee will, essentially, just reward the teams that win their conference tournaments. It's what has happened in the past -- to duke's benefit.

And as for our chances, look, if the 3s are dropping we can beat anybody. But that is a big if, especially when teams get a real chance to prepare specifically for us. True, there are no great teams out there but I still think we stand only a puncher's chance. We are still up and fighting, however, thank goodness for that. We can take a closer look at strategies once we see our potential matchups and hear more about henderson's status. And honestly, the seedings are fun to talk about but don't really mean much.

[ice-9]

grc5, I posted my concerns about us slipping to a 3 seed back in late February! http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...hlight=jyuwono

I wasn't sure what the pod rules are, but if we don't start in Raleigh because we're a 3 seed as opposed to a 2 seed then the impact IS material. As a 2 seed playing essentially at home, I feel relatively confident that Duke will get to the second weekend relatively unscathed and probably quite rested. As a 3 seed needing to travel a greater distance and playing tougher opponents...sure, we'll probably win, but we'll be a lot more drained and tired out by the second weekend.

Being a 2 seed instead of a 3 seed makes a difference!

[dukemomLA]

YOU CAN NOT PICK DUKE. That being said, name 7 teams which you think could be in the Final Four. (...of course, we all know that Duke might be among them).

My picks (in no particular order): PITT, UCLA, CLEMSON, MEMPHIS, KANSAS, TEXAS, STANFORD.

[brevity]

Year-in-advance picks: Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, USC
Recently chosen alternates: UCLA, Tennessee, Xavier

The actual brackets may change my mind, but right now, I truly believe the 2008 national champion will be one of these teams. (Southern Cal is clearly the least deserving, but bear in mind I made that choice in April 2007.)

If I can add a few categories...

I don't see it: Texas, Georgetown
I don't wanna see it: UNC, Wisconsin

[The1Bluedevil]

I'd rather be a 3 seed. That takes Louisville and Nd out of the picture. Teams like USC and A&M are more likely to get 7's then 6's. Michigan State will get a 5 I believe and Pitt moved their way up to a 4 or 5. Only team I can think of that is right on the 6 line that I wouldn't want to see is Marquette.

With 5 minutes left in the game Vitale is saying possible 1 seed and 5 minutes later a 3 seed is likely. Crazy stuff

[JasonEvans]

Being a 2 seed instead of a 3 seed makes a difference!

Would you care to back this statement up. I would argue that being a top #2 versus a bottom #3 is almost exactly the same.

The difference in playing a #15 vs. a #14 seems pretty minimal -- sure #14s tend to win a little bit more than #15s, but it takes some real serious issues for a team that has been as successful as this one to fall to a team that is one of the weakest in the dance.

I have a hard time getting worked up about playing #6 seeds versus #7 seeds too. I can recall years where I looked at the brackets and found that the #7s were all better than the #6s. I doubt any of us can say with any certainty who the #6s will be versus the #7s. Lunardi has the following 4 teams as #6 seeds -- Purdue, Marquette, Texas A&M, Michigan St and the following teams as #7 seeds -- So Cal, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wash State. Aside from USC (who everyone fears) is there a meaningful difference in those teams? Frankly, those teams just don't scare me that much. Sure, they could beat Duke, but I really like our odds against any of those.

Obviously, there is zero difference in being a weak #2 or a strong #3 when it comes to your Sweet 16 matchup... unless you care a great deal about playing in white versus black/blue.

So, I'd like to hear why you (and others) seem so worried about us being a #3 versus a #2. To me, it makes little difference.

--Jason "I really like Duke's chances in the dance when facing teams unfamiliar with our style of play -- we are not an easy team to prepare for" Evans

[Kathy S]

As of 1 AM, Joe Lunardi of ESPN has Duke as #3 in West, with UCLA #1 and Wisconsin (!) #2 in the same region.

Other 1-2-3- projections are:

East: UNC, Georgetown, Xavier
Midwest: Kansas, Tennessee, Stanford
South: Memphis, Texas, Pittsburgh

I'm no expert, but assuming Lunardi knows what he's talking about, and I understand his record is pretty good, it looks like the only thing that could elevate us to #2 would be a Wisconsin loss today, but I agree with others that this seems unlikely.

[JasonEvans]

I'd rather be a #3 seed-- that way fewer folks will have us when they make their tournament picks (most people pick "the scratch") so I will do better when I pick us in my office pool

-Jason "if Henderson is healthy and Singler is rested, this team makes big noise in the Dance" Evans

[Bluedog]

As of 1 AM, Joe Lunardi of ESPN has Duke as #3 in West, with UCLA #1 and Wisconsin (!) #2 in the same region.

Other 1-2-3- projections are:

East: UNC, Georgetown, Xavier
Midwest: Kansas, Tennessee, Stanford
South: Memphis, Texas, Pittsburgh

I'm no expert, but assuming Lunardi knows what he's talking about, and I understand his record is pretty good, it looks like the only thing that could elevate us to #2 would be a Wisconsin loss today, but I agree with others that this seems unlikely.

I agree that it's possible that Wisconsin gets the 2 ahead of us, but, personally, I don't know how anybody in their right mind could possibly think they are a better team than Duke. Wisc is 12 in RPI with SOS of 61, while Duke is 7 with SOS of 8, plus a head-to-head win over Wisc. For the depth of quality wins, let's take a look at the top ten wins by each team.

Wisconsin's top ten wins are Texas (rpi 5), Mich St x2 (15), Indiana x2 (26), Ohio St (48), IL x2 (96), Minnesota x2 (101). Also note that 4 of these wins are beating the same opponent a second time.

Duke's top ten wins are UNC (rpi 2), Wisconsin (12), Clemson (19), Marquette (22), Davidson (31), Miami (34), Temple (50), Cornell (64), Georgia Tech x2 (65).

Duke has just played higher quality opponents throughout, although it's not overwhelming, I suppose. But the head-to-head drubbing should be the tiebreaker in my opinion. Also, their records are very similar (28-4 vs. 27-5) that I don't see how the committee can say that Duke isn't a better team. Beating IL today qualifies them as a 2 seed?! The Big Ten is just AWFUL this year.

Having said all that, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee rewards Wisc with a 2, and gives us a 3. I just wouldn't agree with that decision, but in the end, being the lowest 2 vs. highest 3 is not much of a difference at all. It's all about matchups as others have said, so I wouldn't be that angry, esp if Wisc is our 2.

[dukie8]

I agree that it's possible that Wisconsin gets the 2 ahead of us, but, personally, I don't know how anybody in their right mind could possibly think they are a better team than Duke. Wisc is 12 in RPI with SOS of 61, while Duke is 7 with SOS of 8, plus a head-to-head win over Wisc. For the depth of quality wins, let's take a look at the top ten wins by each team.

Wisconsin's top ten wins are Texas (rpi 5), Mich St x2 (15), Indiana x2 (26), Ohio St (48), IL x2 (96), Minnesota x2 (101). Also note that 4 of these wins are beating the same opponent a second time.

Duke's top ten wins are UNC (rpi 2), Wisconsin (12), Clemson (19), Marquette (22), Davidson (31), Miami (34), Temple (50), Cornell (64), Georgia Tech x2 (65).

Duke has just played higher quality opponents throughout, although it's not overwhelming, I suppose. But the head-to-head drubbing should be the tiebreaker in my opinion. Also, their records are very similar (28-4 vs. 27-5) that I don't see how the committee can say that Duke isn't a better team. Beating IL today qualifies them as a 2 seed?! The Big Ten is just AWFUL this year.

Having said all that, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee rewards Wisc with a 2, and gives us a 3. I just wouldn't agree with that decision, but in the end, being the lowest 2 vs. highest 3 is not much of a difference at all. It's all about matchups as others have said, so I wouldn't be that angry, esp if Wisc is our 2.

there is no way that objectively the committee can conclude that wisc is better than duke for the reasons that you listed above. the head-to-head blowout should eliminate any doubts. however, the committee historically has been over-impressed with winning bcs conferences and, if wisc wins the b11 today, then it will have won both the b11 regular season and tournament. it will come down to how much the committee discounts the truly horrific b11 this year. as has been mentioned many times, it really doesn't matter if we are the 2 and wisc is the 3 as long as we get paired with them in the sweet 16 because they probably will be the softest sweet 16 matchup for 2s and 3s (if they even get there). as jason noted above, there really is no difference between 6s and 7s and 7s often better than 6s.

[kinghoops]

wisconsin will be a 2 seed and duke will be a three plain and simple, if you look at the pool of 2 seeds, duke is the only one that did not either win or tie for their conference regular season title, and this will be a factor in the committees decision. i like lunardis seeding of ucla,wis, and duke, maybe geeting out of the area will help this team. for whatever reason, this team has faltered in late feb , early march, and i think starting anew and out of the area will help

[grc5]

--Jason "I really like Duke's chances in the dance when facing teams unfamiliar with our style of play -- we are not an easy team to prepare for" Evans

Great point. So far only one team has beaten us on their first try (Pitt, and only thanks to a last-second desperation OT three). I think any team we meet in the first and second round is simply going to think that all they need to do to beat Duke is play good defense on the perimiter. Beating Duke is not that simple. I think we'll be able to take care of our business no matter what our seed is.

[blazindw]

The problem is figuring out what the committee does with Georgetown. They can't play in D.C. The next logical place to put them is Raleigh. So, do they go there, shipping us to D.C.? And what if they're in UNC's region -- they can't then both be in the same pod, right? So where else would they go? Tampa? Birmingham? Georgetown's getting screwed, one way or another. And while I'd like to see Duke in Raleigh, D.C. wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

I agree wholeheartedly, mostly because I live in Chevy Chase and it would be easy for me to go, but a trip to DC will likely be a favorable spot for us just as a trip to Raleigh would be. As most of you already know, there are thousands upon thousands of Duke alumni here in the area.

I think Tennessee will end up a 2 and the Kansas/Texas winner will be a 1. The loser will be a 2, leaving one #2 seed left. I still think that we get it as a result of having the #2 record in the ACC (which is #1 in the RPI for conferences). Our only competition would be Stanford I think, because for Wisconsin, getting blown out by us and winning the Big Ten (further down the line in terms of conference RPI) will not trump our tournament "resume".

[dukie8]

Great point. So far only one team has beaten us on their first try (Pitt, and only thanks to a last-second desperation OT three). I think any team we meet in the first and second round is simply going to think that all they need to do to beat Duke is play good defense on the perimiter. Beating Duke is not that simple. I think we'll be able to take care of our business no matter what our seed is.

wake beat us in their first and only try.

[JasonEvans]

wake beat us in their first and only try.

Dukie8, you must stop bringing up facts. It is no fair to use those in a debate.

--Jason " " Evans