Pre-bracket speculation!! Post here!

[TwoDukeTattoos]

Please understand that my post is not about the Clemson loss or about the ACC tourney at all. The subject of my post is simple: our eventual journey throught the Big Dance.

Like all Duke fans, I certainly wanted us to win the ACC tourney. However, it hasn't been my focus at all. I have felt strongly through the 2nd half of the season that we are an incredibly legit Big Dance team to be reckoned with. ACC games can be easier to win because you've played everyone at least once, many twice, so hours upon hours of tape and experience has led to close game and upsets. This truth is not entirely applicable to Big Dance play. And I think that's what makes this Duke team special.

True, every opponent and crowd member will smell blood regardless of the gym we show up in, however, I feel that given our depth and athleticism that we will overcome everyone. We may not blow teams out, but it won't matter. We'll still win games. I haven't felt this strongly about a Duke team since 01 (and I called that Tourney win all the way - even when we were down by astronomical amounts against UMD)

This weekend, K played 10 guys in both games. It's impressive to think that even with 10 guys playing minutes, we still lead the entire game and beat a hot GT by 12, and lost by only 4 to a legit Clemson. I take that as a win in this tourney because it further builds our Big Dance resume. This team is fresh, talented, and hungry and we will do big things during Big Dance 08.

Last year this way my hope. This year it is my certainty.

Balance. Depth. Offensive and defensive officiency. National Title.

Go Duke.. March on.

[houstondukie]

we are an inevitable cold spell away from an early exit

[TwoDukeTattoos]

we are an inevitable cold spell away from an early exit

Evidently folks haven't visited Pomroy's site. Of the last four national champions (since he began keeping the data) each national champion has ranked in at least the top 12 in offensive AND defensive effiecency. This year to date, only three teams are in that category: UCLA, Kansas, and Duke. Please understand that Pomroy is not ranking offenses and defenses - rather he is ranking efficiencies. "Efficiencies" is the key word. Please visit the site for his formula. It makes perfect sense. True, it's arguable, as is everything in life (even stats), still it's the most solid angle I've ever seen. If you couple that with the fact that the last three national champions have all had five players averaging double figure scoring, and of the three Pomroy teams, Duke is the only team with five players averaging in double figures - wow - you feel pretty good about our chances.

True, nothing I have said is a "crystal ball" predictor. However, it would give a betting man reason to place at least some stock on Duke.

[wisteria]

I wish I could share your confidence.
I've experienced so much heartache in March these years that I try not to hurt myself again by hoping too much.

[dukelifer]

Please understand that my post is not about the Clemson loss or about the ACC tourney at all. The subject of my post is simple: our eventual journey throught the Big Dance.

Like all Duke fans, I certainly wanted us to win the ACC tourney. However, it hasn't been my focus at all. I have felt strongly through the 2nd half of the season that we are an incredibly legit Big Dance team to be reckoned with. ACC games can be easier to win because you've played everyone at least once, many twice, so hours upon hours of tape and experience has led to close game and upsets. This truth is not entirely applicable to Big Dance play. And I think that's what makes this Duke team special.

True, every opponent and crowd member will smell blood regardless of the gym we show up in, however, I feel that given our depth and athleticism that we will overcome everyone. We may not blow teams out, but it won't matter. We'll still win games. I haven't felt this strongly about a Duke team since 01 (and I called that Tourney win all the way - even when we were down by astronomical amounts against UMD)

This weekend, K played 10 guys in both games. It's impressive to think that even with 10 guys playing minutes, we still lead the entire game and beat a hot GT by 12, and lost by only 4 to a legit Clemson. I take that as a win in this tourney because it further builds our Big Dance resume. This team is fresh, talented, and hungry and we will do big things during Big Dance 08.

Last year this way my hope. This year it is my certainty.

Balance. Depth. Offensive and defensive officiency. National Title.

Go Duke.. March on.

If Henderson is okay- Duke has a chance- I agree. And I agree you have to give some credit to K for playing his bench - A LOT. Folks, Clemson is playing pretty good ball of late. They cannot and will not beat UNC because of the history- but they SHOULD have beaten them twice and if they had done that - they might have been the number 2 seed in the conference and a solid 3 seed themselves. Let's do not fool ourselves- Clemson is a VERY good team and Mays is healthy for the first time this season- and he is a huge X-factor. Duke lost to a team that can easily be a final four team- like Ga Tech in 2004. They just need to get their confidence. They have all the parts to be very dangerous.

[gofurman]

Kansas
Georgetown
- - -
Texas
Duke
Xavier
Wisconsin
Louisville

would be in contest for a two seed

I say
Gerogetown has one by doing well in BE tourney
Kansas has one locked up


Texas will hopefully lose to Kansas
Xavier lost to St Joes so that helps
Wisconsin doing well but lost bad to Duke
Louisville lost in the tourney early

So I think Duke can still get a 2 seed

Agree?
I don't think UT losing matters as they may just move region but still be a one seed?

I think Texas losing is key. If they beat Kansas then I think Texas gets a 2 and Kansas stays at a 2 thus eliminating one of the 2 seeds?

[coastal1]

This weekend, K played 10 guys in both games. It's impressive to think that even with 10 guys playing minutes, we still lead the entire game and beat a hot GT by 12, and lost by only 4 to a legit Clemson. I take that as a win in this tourney because it further builds our Big Dance resume.

This is beyond absurd. K coached to win the games.

[coastal1]

#2 almost certainly, but Duke is not a top 8 team right now. The early Wiscy win makes it easy though

[houstondukie]

I guess the 2004 Final Four run doesn't count any more. Duke lost the ACC tourney that year as well.

That 2004 team with Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Deng, and Shelden would run this team out of the gym.

With that said, I haven't given up on this team yet. It's all about the matchups and some luck. Hopefully we'll get some rest in the next week and we'll be ready and hungry.

PS, Duke missed one free throw today (16 for 17).

PSS How did L. Thomas play 14 minutes today and not get a single point, rebound, block, steal, or shot attempt? If not for the 2 fouls he would have no recorded stat.

[Troublemaker]

Duke will likely get a 2 seed. Here's a real-time RPI site: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

Duke is 27-5, RPI #8, RPI SOS #7
Stanford is 26-7, RPI #15, RPI SOS #56
Wisconsin is 28-4, RPI #12, RPI SOS #61, and a blowout loss to Duke
Xavier is 27-6, RPI #9, RPI SOS #23, and the best team from a bad conference and not a conference tournament winner.

I don't see anyone else as a contender for the last 2 seed.

[Highlander]

#3 I think. Texas goes ahead of us by virtue of making the finals of their tourney, where we didn't. Wisconsin passes us if they win their tourney, regardless of our early season win over them. Kansas and GTown take the other two spots.

Our early season win over Wisconsin would be a tiebreaker in my mind, but it's not a tie if they win out and we don't even make the finals.

I bet we're in Memphis's bracket if we're the last #2, b/c mathematically we should be in UNC's if they are the overall #1, but I don't think the committee puts us in the same region (even though they could).

[dukelifer]

That 2004 team with Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Deng, and Shelden would run this team out of the gym.

With that said, I haven't given up on this team yet. It's all about the matchups and some luck. Hopefully we'll get some rest in the next week and we'll be ready and hungry.

PS, Duke missed one free throw today (16 for 17).

PSS How did L. Thomas play 14 minutes today and not get a single point, rebound, block, steal, or shot attempt? If not for the 2 fouls he would have no recorded stat.

Let's not play that game. That 2004 Duke team would run this year's number 1 tarheels out of the gym. The 2005 tarheels would run the 2008 tarheels out of the gym and this Duke team for sure.

Lance was a bit overmatched today. Booker and Mays are very strong.

[Troublemaker]

One possible S-curve for the top 3 seeds

1. UNC.....Memphis......UCLA.......Kansa s
2. G'town...Duke.......Texas.......Tenn essee
3. Stanford...Wiscy.......Louisville....Xavi er

[houstondukie]

Wisconsin has to lose.

Basically, it's 5 teams for 4 spots: Kansas, Texas, Wisconsin, G'town, and Duke.

G'town is a lock - Big East is too good a conference for the champion to get a 3 seed.

Kansas and Texas is tricky.
Kansas is too good not to get a 2 seed (some experts and many on this site think they are the best team in the country).
Texas, if they win the B12 tournament is a lock (they won the B12 regular season) But even if they lose to Kansas, they have wins over Tenn, UCLA, and Kansas. That's wins over 2 #1 seeds and a #2 seed. No other team can say that.

So I think basically it comes down to us and Wisconsin, who we destroyed. But I agree, if Wisconsin wins their conference tourney, we're looking at a 3.

[kinghoops]

i hate to say this, but 4-4 over the last eight games will get duke a 3 seed.

[CDu]

i hate to say this, but 4-4 over the last eight games will get duke a 3 seed.

It is worse than that for us. We're 3-4 over the last seven games. I think we're a 2 seed if Wisconsin doesn't win their tournament, and a #3 seed if they do. That said, I could see us being a three seed regardless, assuming the committee decides based on games played through today (due to time constraints).

[VaDukie]

Wisconsin wins = 3 seed
Wisconsin loses = 2 seed

[Troublemaker]

CDu, we're 5-2 over the last 7 games and 5-4 over the last 9 games (and obviously 6-4 over "Last 10"), so it's a little bit better than what you have.

I agree with you guys that only Wisconsin could drop Duke to a 3. Root for Illinois tomorrow. If nothing else, I'd hate to see UNC get Wisconsin as their 2 seed. Yuck.

Keep in mind Duke got a surprising 6 seed last season when most of us were predicting lower. SOS counts.

And regardless, Duke needs to play better. 2 seed, 3 seed, whatever.

[devildownunder]

How did L. Thomas play 14 minutes today and not get a single point, rebound, block, steal, or shot attempt? If not for the 2 fouls he would have no recorded stat.

That is amazing.

[CDu]

CDu, we're 5-2 over the last 7 games and 5-4 over the last 9 games (and obviously 6-4 over "Last 10"), so it's a little bit better than what you have.

I agree with you guys that only Wisconsin could drop Duke to a 3. Root for Illinois tomorrow. If nothing else, I'd hate to see UNC get Wisconsin as their 2 seed. Yuck.

Keep in mind Duke got a surprising 6 seed last season when most of us were predicting lower. SOS counts.

And regardless, Duke needs to play better. 2 seed, 3 seed, whatever.

Ah yes, I overlooked the St John's win and (somehow) the win yesterday. Oops. But 5-4 over the last nine is still a reason for big concern. Especially considering that we needed a collapse by NC St to avoid being under .500 over that stretch.

Agree both about the idea that we'll either be a low #2 or a high #3, depending largely upon the Wisconsin game tomorrow. And I completely agree that we need to play better. The problem I see is that we aren't really playing like a #2/#3 seed at the moment, and haven't been for a while. Aside from the UNC game (which is a rivalry game, so it is bound to be an outlier), we've played more like a #5/#6 seed.