The data show that the most overrated schools are second-tier teams from top conferences. Exhibit A is Wake Forest, which has probably burned more brackets than any other team in three decades. Since 1985, the Demon Deacons have ranked between a No. 1 and No. 4 seed six different times, and only once, in 1996, did they advance beyond the third round. That year, Wake got blown out by 20 points in its quarterfinal matchup against Kentucky. In all those games Wake played 5.5 points below the average and never beat a higher-seeded team.
"I'm glad we're number one in something," says Ron Wellman, Wake's athletic director. Mr. Wellman says the school has probably benefited from playing in the rugged Atlantic Coast Conference.