Can we still get a #1 seed?

[Johnny B]

If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

[Lotus000]

If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

I have been thinking about this all day, and I just don't think we can get a 1-seed, but I think we will be the highest 2 on the S-curve (hopefully). The 1-seeds will be UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, and UCLA. That leaves Kansas and us competing for the highest 2, in my opinion (discounting Texas).

[CameronBornAndBred]

We would have to win the ACC tourney, and convincingly, including a win over UNC in the finals. If we don't play them in the championship game, then it won't help us much. Also Tenn will have to badly (like lose in their first SEC tourney game badly).
That being said, I will be happy with a #2. If you think about it, a one seed doesn't have any great advantage over a two except for bragging rights. The teams that each will face will be comparable. Last year 2 of the #1 seeds made the Final Four, in 2006 only one made it.

[yancem]

If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

The only way Duke gets a #1 seed is if UNC looses before the acc finals, Duke wins the acc tourney, and two of UCLA, Tenn and Kansas do not win their respective conference tourneys. Memphis has sewn up a #1, with only 1 loss, a loss in the conference USA tourney shouldn't hurt them. Right now UCLA, Tenn and Kansas are ahead of Duke. Only a loss in their conference tourneys will give Duke a chance to leap frog them.

With the loss on Sat to UNC, I don't think that even beating them for the acc championship get us over the hump against them. The committee usually tries not to let a conference tourney final dictate #1 seeds. If UNC were to loose to MD in the semis, that might do it.

I'm not sure a #2 is guaranteed. If we don't get at least to the acc finals, a team like G'Town or Stanford could sneak past us. I doubt it, but G'Town is 25-4 and won the Big East regular season and if the win the conference tourney they could displace us, Texas or Wisconsin.

[houstondukie]

Most people think we have to beat UNC in the ACC championship to get a 1 seed, but I think we have to hope that UNC loses early in the ACC tourney and Duke wins it.

Duke would have the season series (2-1) if they did beat UNC in the championship game, but I think the absence of Lawson in the first game and the regular season crown will make up for it in the committee's eyes. Keep in mind, the regular season covers 16 games and usually carries slightly more weight than the acc tourney.

Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.

I don't think it matters what happens with UCLA, G'town, Tenn, or any other team for that matter, since we know that one of either UNC/Duke will get a 1 seed but not both.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.

Carolina could lose their first game and still will have a one seed.
They are ranked 1 in the country with only tourney week left. They are a lock. If we get a 1 seed, we won't be taking theirs. It will most likely be Tennessee's.

[hondoheel]

Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.

[yancem]

Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.

I agree totally. I know this is a best case scenario for you, but it is for Duke:

UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.

Not the most likely scenario but could happen.

[Lotus000]

I agree totally. I know this is a best case scenario for you, but it is for Duke:

UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.

Not the most likely scenario but could happen.

This is actually what I WANT to happen. I think Tenn. is entirely beatable in the East with us as the two, but right now the East bracket is decidedly UNC's.

Obviously we won't be in UNC's bracket, but I wouldn't mind at all being in Tenn.'s or UCLA's (joke, to me...thanks refs!). I wouldn't want to play Memphis, just...just too dang explosive.

[pamtar]

This is actually what I WANT to happen.

Me too. I think either bracket we enter will be tough but I definitely do not want to see UNC as the No. 1 in the East. That pretty much guarantees them a trip to the FF.

[hurleyfor3]

Why is it so important to be a one seed? It's not as if we've had tremendous success with the fours and fives in the Sweet 16 recently. The ones are pretty much set, and we ain't the first alternate at this point. I'd rather be the 2 in Memphis' or Tennessee's bracket.

A better question would be, who would you most like to see as our three seed? I say Stanfraud.

[grc5]

At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...

[SilkyJ]

If we beat UNC in the finals and get just a tad bit of help (likely) we are either the last #1 seed or the top #2 seed, methinks.

I havent run the numbers, but I think rarely do all the top seeds win out in their conference tournaments (talking about major conferences here)

[SilkyJ]

At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...

I don't know how much I'd worry about Wisconsin. I don't think they would take away a seed from us as we are superior to them in the RPI and dead even in the Pomeroy. Oh, and we blew them out head to head.

[Classof06]

To get a 1 seed, I'd say Duke would have to win the ACC Tournament and that run would have to include a win over UNC. Otherwise, I can't see Duke getting any worse than a 2 seed unless they lose to the winner of GT/UVA.

[Cameron]

If Kansas wins the Big XII Tournament, then Tennesse is out of a one spot. The Jayhawks have all but wrapped up their top seed; they just have to capture the crown in Oklahoma City.

Tennessee will slip up in the SEC anyway, and fall into a two, IMO, leaving Kansas with that final number one position. Memphis and UCLA have their ones in the bag, as does Carolina.

However, if Duke were to knock off the Heels in the ACC title game, then the Blue Devils waltz into the East's top spot and Carolina knocks Kansas out of the running in the Midwest.

Or at least that's how I see it.

Should be fun to watch it all play out.

[OldPhiKap]

ACC gets a #1 seed. If we win the tourney, we get it. Why would Carolina still be ahead of us if we beat them 2 out of 3 and won the conference?

[SilkyJ]

ACC gets a #1 seed. If we win the tourney, we get it. Why would Carolina still be ahead of us if we beat them 2 out of 3 and won the conference?

I agree, but as Jay Bilas points out constantly to the other talking heads, its all about "who's the best team" and so if people think UNC is still better than us (b/c on paper they are, and they are "built" for a title run) then they may still get a 1 seed ahead of us...

[BlueBlood112883]

I agree, but as Jay Bilas points out constantly to the other talking heads, its all about "who's the best team" and so if people think UNC is still better than us (b/c on paper they are, and they are "built" for a title run) then they may still get a 1 seed ahead of us...

To that I say well the best team wins 2 out of 3 *note I didn't say the best talent, but the best team*. Performance on the court outweighs what a video game, or a game played on paper shows. I mean 2 out of 3 would be kinda hard to fight against about who's a better team when it matters.

[GopherBlue]

Honestly, I don't think a UNC loss in the ACC tourney - to Duke or anyone else - will wrestle away their #1 seed. Could Duke slip into one of the other #1 seeds with an ACC championship combined with bad losses by Memphis, UCLA, Tenn, and/or Kansas? Might can.

Another scenario that may open the door for a Duke #1 seed, albeit not one I would hope for, is the loss of a critical player for one of the expected #1 seeds - ala Kenyon Martin a few years back. Who might be this critical?
UNC: Hansborough, Ellington, Lawson?
UCLA: Collison, Love?
Memphis: Douglas-Roberts, Rose?
Tennessee: Lofton?
Kansas: Arthur, Rush, Chalmers?