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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond

    Can we still get a #1 seed?

    If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

    So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny B View Post
    If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

    So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?
    I have been thinking about this all day, and I just don't think we can get a 1-seed, but I think we will be the highest 2 on the S-curve (hopefully). The 1-seeds will be UNC, Memphis, Tennessee, and UCLA. That leaves Kansas and us competing for the highest 2, in my opinion (discounting Texas).

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley

    We would have to win and need help

    We would have to win the ACC tourney, and convincingly, including a win over UNC in the finals. If we don't play them in the championship game, then it won't help us much. Also Tenn will have to badly (like lose in their first SEC tourney game badly).
    That being said, I will be happy with a #2. If you think about it, a one seed doesn't have any great advantage over a two except for bragging rights. The teams that each will face will be comparable. Last year 2 of the #1 seeds made the Final Four, in 2006 only one made it.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny B View Post
    If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.

    So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?
    The only way Duke gets a #1 seed is if UNC looses before the acc finals, Duke wins the acc tourney, and two of UCLA, Tenn and Kansas do not win their respective conference tourneys. Memphis has sewn up a #1, with only 1 loss, a loss in the conference USA tourney shouldn't hurt them. Right now UCLA, Tenn and Kansas are ahead of Duke. Only a loss in their conference tourneys will give Duke a chance to leap frog them.

    With the loss on Sat to UNC, I don't think that even beating them for the acc championship get us over the hump against them. The committee usually tries not to let a conference tourney final dictate #1 seeds. If UNC were to loose to MD in the semis, that might do it.

    I'm not sure a #2 is guaranteed. If we don't get at least to the acc finals, a team like G'Town or Stanford could sneak past us. I doubt it, but G'Town is 25-4 and won the Big East regular season and if the win the conference tourney they could displace us, Texas or Wisconsin.

  5. #5
    Most people think we have to beat UNC in the ACC championship to get a 1 seed, but I think we have to hope that UNC loses early in the ACC tourney and Duke wins it.

    Duke would have the season series (2-1) if they did beat UNC in the championship game, but I think the absence of Lawson in the first game and the regular season crown will make up for it in the committee's eyes. Keep in mind, the regular season covers 16 games and usually carries slightly more weight than the acc tourney.

    Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.

    I don't think it matters what happens with UCLA, G'town, Tenn, or any other team for that matter, since we know that one of either UNC/Duke will get a 1 seed but not both.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by yancem View Post
    The only way Duke gets a #1 seed is if UNC looses before the acc finals, Duke wins the acc tourney, and two of UCLA, Tenn and Kansas do not win their respective conference tourneys.
    I'd take this a little bit farther. I'd say that for Duke to get a #1, UNC has to lose either in their first ACCT game, or lose big in the semis. That will bump them down to no longer be the #1 overall seed. If they get to the championship game, they're going to get the benefit of the doubt by a pressed-for-time committee.

    Then, at least two of your list of other teams are going to need to lose in the semis of their tournaments as well, however, if Texas wins the Big XII tourney, that keeps us out of a #1 seed.

    Given all of that, I don't think it's going to happen, which I don't think is all that bad of a deal.

    If we get to the finals of the ACC Tournament, I think we have a good shot of being the top #2 seed. If we win the ACC Tournament, it's locked up.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley

    They have it regardless

    Quote Originally Posted by houstondukie View Post
    Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.
    Carolina could lose their first game and still will have a one seed.
    They are ranked 1 in the country with only tourney week left. They are a lock. If we get a 1 seed, we won't be taking theirs. It will most likely be Tennessee's.

  8. #8
    Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by hondoheel View Post
    Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.
    I agree totally. I know this is a best case scenario for you, but it is for Duke:

    UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.

    Not the most likely scenario but could happen.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by yancem View Post
    I agree totally. I know this is a best case scenario for you, but it is for Duke:

    UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.

    Not the most likely scenario but could happen.
    This is actually what I WANT to happen. I think Tenn. is entirely beatable in the East with us as the two, but right now the East bracket is decidedly UNC's.

    Obviously we won't be in UNC's bracket, but I wouldn't mind at all being in Tenn.'s or UCLA's (joke, to me...thanks refs!). I wouldn't want to play Memphis, just....just too dang explosive.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    In your attic
    Quote Originally Posted by Lotus000 View Post
    This is actually what I WANT to happen.
    Me too. I think either bracket we enter will be tough but I definitely do not want to see UNC as the No. 1 in the East. That pretty much guarantees them a trip to the FF.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Dillon, Colorado

    Question

    Why is it so important to be a one seed? It's not as if we've had tremendous success with the fours and fives in the Sweet 16 recently. The ones are pretty much set, and we ain't the first alternate at this point. I'd rather be the 2 in Memphis' or Tennessee's bracket.

    A better question would be, who would you most like to see as our three seed? I say Stanfraud.
    As suburban children we floated at night in swimming pools the temperature of blood. -- Douglas Coupland

  13. #13
    At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Philly
    If we beat UNC in the finals and get just a tad bit of help (likely) we are either the last #1 seed or the top #2 seed, methinks.

    I havent run the numbers, but I think rarely do all the top seeds win out in their conference tournaments (talking about major conferences here)

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by grc5 View Post
    At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...
    I don't know how much I'd worry about Wisconsin. I don't think they would take away a seed from us as we are superior to them in the RPI and dead even in the Pomeroy. Oh, and we blew them out head to head.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    To get a 1 seed, I'd say Duke would have to win the ACC Tournament and that run would have to include a win over UNC. Otherwise, I can't see Duke getting any worse than a 2 seed unless they lose to the winner of GT/UVA.

  17. #17

    It will take a bad loss by another top team or two.

    Honestly, I don't think a UNC loss in the ACC tourney - to Duke or anyone else - will wrestle away their #1 seed. Could Duke slip into one of the other #1 seeds with an ACC championship combined with bad losses by Memphis, UCLA, Tenn, and/or Kansas? Might can.

    Another scenario that may open the door for a Duke #1 seed, albeit not one I would hope for, is the loss of a critical player for one of the expected #1 seeds - ala Kenyon Martin a few years back. Who might be this critical?
    UNC: Hansborough, Ellington, Lawson?
    UCLA: Collison, Love?
    Memphis: Douglas-Roberts, Rose?
    Tennessee: Lofton?
    Kansas: Arthur, Rush, Chalmers?

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Toledo
    If Kansas wins the Big XII Tournament, then Tennesse is out of a one spot. The Jayhawks have all but wrapped up their top seed; they just have to capture the crown in Oklahoma City.

    Tennessee will slip up in the SEC anyway, and fall into a two, IMO, leaving Kansas with that final number one position. Memphis and UCLA have their ones in the bag, as does Carolina.

    However, if Duke were to knock off the Heels in the ACC title game, then the Blue Devils waltz into the East's top spot and Carolina knocks Kansas out of the running in the Midwest.

    Or at least that's how I see it.

    Should be fun to watch it all play out.
    "Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    ACC gets a #1 seed. If we win the tourney, we get it. Why would Carolina still be ahead of us if we beat them 2 out of 3 and won the conference?

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Baltimore
    Honestly, i think it is going to be difficult for us to get a #1 seed right now. Even if UNC makes it to the finals and loses to us (hopefully), i really think the committee and media are really high on them right now. And let's face it, thye are playing good basketball right now. If we beat them it may just knock them out of the #1 seed in the East as long Tennessee wins the SEC. They may still end up with the #1 in the Midwest region if that happens. In that case we could luck out with the #2 in the Charlotte bracket, which could be just as nice. I'm happy as long as we stay in range for at least a 2 seed.

    Basically there are a lot of scenarios that need to fall into place the next 6 days. When it all comes down to it, you have to come play every day in the NCAAs. Is there really that much of a difference between at #1 or #2 seed once the 2nd round starts?? You are playing a 7 through 10 seed by then, and they are all talented squads. Teams like Miami, Vanderbilt, Oregon, etc. are looking at those types of seeds right now and on certain days they have looked as good as anyone out there.

    If we play Defense and hit some shots, we are going to be difficult to beat no matter where we play or what seed we get...

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