If we beat Carolina in the ACC championship, then we win the head to head; overall we would have 4 losses to their 3 and be similarly ranked in RPI, SOS and Pomeroy.
So, does it come down to a final head to head match up with Carolina for a number 1 seed or does the selection committee weigh regular season games more?
We would have to win the ACC tourney, and convincingly, including a win over UNC in the finals. If we don't play them in the championship game, then it won't help us much. Also Tenn will have to badly (like lose in their first SEC tourney game badly).
That being said, I will be happy with a #2. If you think about it, a one seed doesn't have any great advantage over a two except for bragging rights. The teams that each will face will be comparable. Last year 2 of the #1 seeds made the Final Four, in 2006 only one made it.
With the loss on Sat to UNC, I don't think that even beating them for the acc championship get us over the hump against them. The committee usually tries not to let a conference tourney final dictate #1 seeds. If UNC were to loose to MD in the semis, that might do it.
I'm not sure a #2 is guaranteed. If we don't get at least to the acc finals, a team like G'Town or Stanford could sneak past us. I doubt it, but G'Town is 25-4 and won the Big East regular season and if the win the conference tourney they could displace us, Texas or Wisconsin.
Most people think we have to beat UNC in the ACC championship to get a 1 seed, but I think we have to hope that UNC loses early in the ACC tourney and Duke wins it.
Duke would have the season series (2-1) if they did beat UNC in the championship game, but I think the absence of Lawson in the first game and the regular season crown will make up for it in the committee's eyes. Keep in mind, the regular season covers 16 games and usually carries slightly more weight than the acc tourney.
Therefore, I think that as long as UNC makes it to the championship game, the committee will reward them with a 1 seed.
I don't think it matters what happens with UCLA, G'town, Tenn, or any other team for that matter, since we know that one of either UNC/Duke will get a 1 seed but not both.
Then, at least two of your list of other teams are going to need to lose in the semis of their tournaments as well, however, if Texas wins the Big XII tourney, that keeps us out of a #1 seed.
Given all of that, I don't think it's going to happen, which I don't think is all that bad of a deal.
If we get to the finals of the ACC Tournament, I think we have a good shot of being the top #2 seed. If we win the ACC Tournament, it's locked up.
Better to be a 2 seed in the east than a 1 in the midwest, especially if Tennessee is the 1 in the east. They are hugely overrated.
UNC looses in the semis of the acc. They keep a #1 seed but get shifted to another region. Kansas looses to Texas in the big 12 and looses their #1 to Tenn, who wins the sec. Duke then gets the #2 in the east opposite Tenn.
Not the most likely scenario but could happen.
Obviously we won't be in UNC's bracket, but I wouldn't mind at all being in Tenn.'s or UCLA's (joke, to me...thanks refs!). I wouldn't want to play Memphis, just....just too dang explosive.
Why is it so important to be a one seed? It's not as if we've had tremendous success with the fours and fives in the Sweet 16 recently. The ones are pretty much set, and we ain't the first alternate at this point. I'd rather be the 2 in Memphis' or Tennessee's bracket.
A better question would be, who would you most like to see as our three seed? I say Stanfraud.
At this point, I would be more worried about holding on to a #2 seed. If we fall short of the ACC final, and Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas, and Kansas all reach their final rounds, we could very well slip to #3 and be out of the Raleigh pod...
If we beat UNC in the finals and get just a tad bit of help (likely) we are either the last #1 seed or the top #2 seed, methinks.
I havent run the numbers, but I think rarely do all the top seeds win out in their conference tournaments (talking about major conferences here)
To get a 1 seed, I'd say Duke would have to win the ACC Tournament and that run would have to include a win over UNC. Otherwise, I can't see Duke getting any worse than a 2 seed unless they lose to the winner of GT/UVA.
Honestly, I don't think a UNC loss in the ACC tourney - to Duke or anyone else - will wrestle away their #1 seed. Could Duke slip into one of the other #1 seeds with an ACC championship combined with bad losses by Memphis, UCLA, Tenn, and/or Kansas? Might can.
Another scenario that may open the door for a Duke #1 seed, albeit not one I would hope for, is the loss of a critical player for one of the expected #1 seeds - ala Kenyon Martin a few years back. Who might be this critical?
UNC: Hansborough, Ellington, Lawson?
UCLA: Collison, Love?
Memphis: Douglas-Roberts, Rose?
Kansas: Arthur, Rush, Chalmers?
If Kansas wins the Big XII Tournament, then Tennesse is out of a one spot. The Jayhawks have all but wrapped up their top seed; they just have to capture the crown in Oklahoma City.
Tennessee will slip up in the SEC anyway, and fall into a two, IMO, leaving Kansas with that final number one position. Memphis and UCLA have their ones in the bag, as does Carolina.
However, if Duke were to knock off the Heels in the ACC title game, then the Blue Devils waltz into the East's top spot and Carolina knocks Kansas out of the running in the Midwest.
Or at least that's how I see it.
Should be fun to watch it all play out.
"Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson
ACC gets a #1 seed. If we win the tourney, we get it. Why would Carolina still be ahead of us if we beat them 2 out of 3 and won the conference?
Honestly, i think it is going to be difficult for us to get a #1 seed right now. Even if UNC makes it to the finals and loses to us (hopefully), i really think the committee and media are really high on them right now. And let's face it, thye are playing good basketball right now. If we beat them it may just knock them out of the #1 seed in the East as long Tennessee wins the SEC. They may still end up with the #1 in the Midwest region if that happens. In that case we could luck out with the #2 in the Charlotte bracket, which could be just as nice. I'm happy as long as we stay in range for at least a 2 seed.
Basically there are a lot of scenarios that need to fall into place the next 6 days. When it all comes down to it, you have to come play every day in the NCAAs. Is there really that much of a difference between at #1 or #2 seed once the 2nd round starts?? You are playing a 7 through 10 seed by then, and they are all talented squads. Teams like Miami, Vanderbilt, Oregon, etc. are looking at those types of seeds right now and on certain days they have looked as good as anyone out there.
If we play Defense and hit some shots, we are going to be difficult to beat no matter where we play or what seed we get...