How to beat Duke? Help here

[dcarp23]

I have theories, but they're nothing better than baseless speculation. So, if you're interested in that, I'm happy to share. But I'm not sure they're worth much.

So what are your thoughts?

[mlk]

This game would not have been that close if we were hitting shots that we should make. How many layups did we miss.

[Ignatius07]

This game would not have been that close if we were hitting shots that we should make. How many layups did we miss.

Probably, but games like this underline the importance of playing good defense every game.

[gofurman]

Probably, but games like this underline the importance of playing good defense every game.

but we were 13-28 from 3. That covers a lot of mistakes and we still were lucky to win. I too am concerned about defense of late.

[arnie]

I think we really overacheived early in the year and were not as good as we appeared. Teams have sort of figured us out on offense (although we are so talented, we can't be shut down). I think the key to our success, is to run continously at the risk of making some poor decisions and turnovers, which will tire the other teams and probably shadow our limited post defense.

I love the depth of this team and hope it is used throughout the tournament!

[Chitowndevil]

Since enough people have asked, let's look at the last four conference games both offensively and defensively. OffEff and DefEff are overall offensive and defensive efficiency, points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. TO% is percentage of offensive possessions resulting in turnovers, OpTO% is the same thing defensively. 3P% is percentage of threes made, OpFTR is opponent's free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted.

Category	OffEff	TO%	3P%	DefEff	Op3P%	OpFTR	OpTO%
Season Avg	113.5	17.9	0.380	91.6	0.33	33.7	17.9
Std Dev	        14.3	5.4	0.100	14.1	0.12	15.2	5.4
Wake	        88.8	25.5	0.286	104.6	0.46	63.3	25.5
Miami	        113.3	26.3	0.405	114.5	0.50	45.9	26.3
GT	        105.6	11.9	0.133	86.3	0.357	18	29.8
NCST	        118.9	10.9	0.464	117.5	0.54	58.0	23.2

So, what sticks out? Aside from the Wake game the offense has been fine; I actually found it impressive we could shoot 12% from 3 and still come within shouting distance of our average OE against Tech.

Other than a fine defensive effort against GT, defense has been a problem (remember DeffEff is based on points allowed, so large numbers are bad). The major culprits are perimeter defense and fouls. In all three losses opponents were above 45% from 3, a full standard deviation above what we've allowed all season. The free throw rate number for Wake and possibly also Miami may be skewed by the end of the game, but all three got to the line way too often against us.

Interestingly enough we generated plenty of turnovers defensively in all three losses. This is significant to me because for the rest of the season, the correlation between Duke's OpTO% and DeffEff in a given game is -0.52, which is hugely significant statistically. To me, that we were well ABOVE average in OpTO% and still had bad defensive games suggests a potentially significant problem.

Bottom line: Duke's defense (and this applies to many teams) has always been successful when they (i) lock down the perimeter, (ii) generate turnovers on defense, and (iii) limit fouls while accomplishing (i) and (ii). For three of our last four conference games, (i) and (iii) have been a big problem. As to the reasons for these problems, there are much finer basketball minds on these boards than mine...

EDIT: Forgot to mention, data sources
goduke.statsgeek.com
kenpom.com

[HK Dukie]

Score less points than Duke and then go home and watch ESPN invent reasons how the refs gave the game to the devils.

[Faison1]

Since enough people have asked, let's look at the last four conference games both offensively and defensively. OffEff and DefEff are overall offensive and defensive efficiency, points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. TO% is percentage of offensive possessions resulting in turnovers, OpTO% is the same thing defensively. 3P% is percentage of threes made, OpFTR is opponent's free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted.

Category	OffEff	TO%	3P%	DefEff	Op3P%	OpFTR	OpTO%
Season Avg	113.5	17.9	0.380	91.6	0.33	33.7	17.9
Std Dev	        14.3	5.4	0.100	14.1	0.12	15.2	5.4
Wake	        88.8	25.5	0.286	104.6	0.46	63.3	25.5
Miami	        113.3	26.3	0.405	114.5	0.50	45.9	26.3
GT	        105.6	11.9	0.133	86.3	0.357	18	29.8
NCST	        118.9	10.9	0.464	117.5	0.54	58.0	23.2

So, what sticks out? Aside from the Wake game the offense has been fine; I actually found it impressive we could shoot 12% from 3 and still come within shouting distance of our average OE against Tech.

Other than a fine defensive effort against GT, defense has been a problem (remember DeffEff is based on points allowed, so large numbers are bad). The major culprits are perimeter defense and fouls. In all three losses opponents were above 45% from 3, a full standard deviation above what we've allowed all season. The free throw rate number for Wake and possibly also Miami may be skewed by the end of the game, but all three got to the line way too often against us.

Interestingly enough we generated plenty of turnovers defensively in all three losses. This is significant to me because for the rest of the season, the correlation between Duke's OpTO% and DeffEff in a given game is -0.52, which is hugely significant statistically. To me, that we were well ABOVE average in OpTO% and still had bad defensive games suggests a potentially significant problem.

Bottom line: Duke's defense (and this applies to many teams) has always been successful when they (i) lock down the perimeter, (ii) generate turnovers on defense, and (iii) limit fouls while accomplishing (i) and (ii). For three of our last four conference games, (i) and (iii) have been a big problem. As to the reasons for these problems, there are much finer basketball minds on these boards than mine...

EDIT: Forgot to mention, data sources
goduke.statsgeek.com
kenpom.com

That's great stuff!! Thank you very much. Those numbers on defense are pretty amazing. Do we chalk it up to hot teams, or something more along the lines of internal issues? Who knows, right? To be a fly on the locker room wall.

Is K the type of manager to look and focus on numbers like these? Does anyone know? As we all know, some managers in life put emphasis on this, and others tend not to. Does anyone know K's mgmt style? Just curious.

[BDP]

To me it seems like teams are giving Duke a taste of there own medicine. Early on in the season teams would try to pound it inside and take advantage of our lack of size, but now it looks like they are spreading us out and attacking what they see as a mismatch (what duke likes to do when there not shooting 3s). It also dosent help that we do not have a big man waiting in the paint if our perimeter defenders get beat. So instead of throwing it into the post, they are spreading us out and driving to the basket where they dont have to worry about a big man blocking there shot. How do we fix this? I dont know? I liked how we used the zone in the beg of the season, but for some reason K decided to go away from it. I also think that we really need zoub in the paint on def to alter shots. And what happened to Nolans defense? It looks like anyone can blow by him now. I hope its because he is hurt. I love GP, but his defense is not great, and this seems to be where teams are attacking us. Finally, I think when we miss alot of 3s it kills our defense. So many times teams get layups on our missed 3s. I would love to see some stats on what our opponets FG% is when we miss 3s, also I would love to see stats on if we outscore teams during stretches in the game where we dont shoot a 3. While watching the last few games it seem like when we go for 5 or more min w/o shooting a 3 we go on a big run. My random thoughts.

[bluepenguin]

I think this is a bit of a red herring, because from Duke's perspective, I'm not worried about our offense. I'm worried about our defense. I think Duke is going to score points on just about anyone. Yes, there might be ways to limit those points, and I'm inclined to try to force Duke to drive, stay at home religiously on the shooters and only help off a big to stop the drive. But, as a coach, I'd be more concerned about my own offense and how to maximize production against Duke's D. How's that for a non-answer answer?

Did you mean that the way to beat Duke is to have at least one more point than Duke when the clock hits 0:00?