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  1. #21
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    There's a very real possibility that Maryland, Miami, Wake, Va Tech, and Clemson could all end up at 9-7. If Wake beats Maryland at home and wins @Ga Tech and vs NC State, they get to 9-7. Maryland beats Clemson at home and UVa on the road, they get to 9-7. If Miami wins against UVa, BC, and @FSU, they get to 9-7. If Va Tech beats Clemson and loses to Wake, they're at 9-7. And if Clemson wins @Ga Tech and loses to Maryland and @Va Tech, they're 9-7.

    If that happens, it should be a very entertaining selection Sunday. I'd say Miami and Clemson walk in easily with their RPI and overall record. After that, it gets really interesting. We could conceivably get two more, but definitely not three. I think Va Tech is the odd man out unless they get to 10-6 in conference. They need to jump either Maryland or Wake Forest (and probably both) to be the 5th or 6th team from the ACC in the committee's eyes. I don't see them winning at Clemson, which will probably send them to the NIT. But it would be very interesting to see what will happen if Wake and Maryland both finish 9-7.

  2. #22
    CDu - I doubt that your scenario will happen but it certainly is well within the realm of possibility. Rather that wait for Selection Sunday, I think that it will be equally interesting to see how the bigwigs of the ACC seed the teams for the ACCT. I suspect that tournament play may play an important role in the NCAA selections. I will be out of the country so I will probably be left to read DBR and the electronic version of the Post to keep up to speed during the last week of the season and the ACCT.

    gw67

  3. #23

    at large

    This season should be a constant reminder of how things can change in a short time. 10 days ago, it looked certain that the ACC would get four teams -- and that Clemson and Maryland would join Duke-UNC in the mix.

    Since then Maryland has stumbled, Clemson had tred water, and Duke has helped Wake and Miami get back in the mix. Meanwhile NC State has flamed out, FSU has shown a spark of life and Virginia Tech is taking advantage of the ACC's weakest schedule to make a case.

    VPI might put the selection committee in a tough spot with the ACC. Here's the problem -- the Hokies currently have eight ACC wins and finish up with a home game against Wake and a road game at Clemson. If they beat the Deacs (a bad road team) at home, then they get to 9-7 in the league. They would be 18-12 overall with zero top 50 wins and an RPI in the 60s.

    That's not the kind of resume that gets you in the field ... they almost have to beat Clemson at Clemson (that would give them one top 50 win) or make a deep run in the ACC Tourney.

    On the other hand, you have Miami, which ought to get to 8 ACC wins with home wins over Virginia and Boston College, but would have win at FSU (which has now won three straight) to get to nine wins. Let's assume they don't -- at 8-8 ACC wins, they would be 21-9 with an RPI in the 20s and a 4-3 record against the top 50.

    That should be enough to qualify, but it would mean taking an 8-8 ACC team ahead of a 9-7 (and maybe 10-6) ACC team. I wonder if the committee will pay attention to the strength of conference schedule -- Miami has five games against the top three ACC teams (Duke-UNC-Clemson), while Virginia Tech has one game each against the same three teams.

    All that said, I think Miami (even with last night's loss at Clemson) is in great shape to join Duke, UNC and Clemson in the field.

    I agree that tonight's Wake-Maryland game is huge for those two teams. Both are in the 60s in RPI. Maryland's strong midseason surge (10-2) might have overcome their December stumbles, but their recent slide (1-3) kind of negates their mid-season surge. Wake's biggest problem is that almost all its success is at home -- they'd better take care of business at home tonight, then they need to at least split with the Techs on the road, then come home and stomp slumping NC State. If Maryland can help themselves tonight, they get Clemson at home this weekend and that becomes a huge game for them.

    Still more than a week to go -- and then the tournament. A lot can still change.

  4. #24
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    This season should be a constant reminder of how things can change in a short time. 10 days ago, it looked certain that the ACC would get four teams -- and that Clemson and Maryland would join Duke-UNC in the mix.

    Since then Maryland has stumbled, Clemson had tred water, and Duke has helped Wake and Miami get back in the mix. Meanwhile NC State has flamed out, FSU has shown a spark of life and Virginia Tech is taking advantage of the ACC's weakest schedule to make a case.

    VPI might put the selection committee in a tough spot with the ACC. Here's the problem -- the Hokies currently have eight ACC wins and finish up with a home game against Wake and a road game at Clemson. If they beat the Deacs (a bad road team) at home, then they get to 9-7 in the league. They would be 18-12 overall with zero top 50 wins and an RPI in the 60s.

    That's not the kind of resume that gets you in the field ... they almost have to beat Clemson at Clemson (that would give them one top 50 win) or make a deep run in the ACC Tourney.

    On the other hand, you have Miami, which ought to get to 8 ACC wins with home wins over Virginia and Boston College, but would have win at FSU (which has now won three straight) to get to nine wins. Let's assume they don't -- at 8-8 ACC wins, they would be 21-9 with an RPI in the 20s and a 4-3 record against the top 50.

    That should be enough to qualify, but it would mean taking an 8-8 ACC team ahead of a 9-7 (and maybe 10-6) ACC team. I wonder if the committee will pay attention to the strength of conference schedule -- Miami has five games against the top three ACC teams (Duke-UNC-Clemson), while Virginia Tech has one game each against the same three teams.

    All that said, I think Miami (even with last night's loss at Clemson) is in great shape to join Duke, UNC and Clemson in the field.

    I agree that tonight's Wake-Maryland game is huge for those two teams. Both are in the 60s in RPI. Maryland's strong midseason surge (10-2) might have overcome their December stumbles, but their recent slide (1-3) kind of negates their mid-season surge. Wake's biggest problem is that almost all its success is at home -- they'd better take care of business at home tonight, then they need to at least split with the Techs on the road, then come home and stomp slumping NC State. If Maryland can help themselves tonight, they get Clemson at home this weekend and that becomes a huge game for them.

    Still more than a week to go -- and then the tournament. A lot can still change.
    I think that the committee is smart enough to realize that, with unbalanced conference schedules, you can't simply compare conference records. It's going to come down to "who you played and who you beat." Va Tech just doesn't have ANY nice wins to hang their hat on. If they finish 9-7 and Miami finishes 8-8, there is no doubt that Miami will get the bid ahead of Va Tech. Miami has several wins against tournament teams, and they have few bad losses. Va Tech just doesn't have any wins on the resume that scream "this is a tournament team." Now, if Va Tech finishes 10-6 (with a win over Clemson) and Miami finishes 8-8, you might have a discussion. But 9-7 wouldn't be enough.

  5. #25
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Maryland made its case stronger last night with the win over Wake. They now have a chance to really solidify their case with a win over Clemson. If they can win that, they'll be 9-6 in conference with a game against UVa to close out the year. Finishing 20-11, 10-6, and with quality wins @UNC and versus Clemson would go a long way toward making their case. If they lose to Clemson and beat UVa, then I think they'll need to get to Saturday of the ACC tournament to make their case. And if they lose both games, they're probably on the outside looking in.

    Wake needs to win out now, which is going to be tough. If they can win on the road against the Techs, they can quiet the argument that they aren't capable of winning away from home, which is their biggest problem right now. They actually have a pretty good record versus the RPI top 50 (3-3) including the nice win over Duke. But a .500 ACC mark and such a poor R/N record along with what would be a very mediocre RPI would probably mean they'd need to do something impressive in the ACC tourney.

  6. #26
    There are seventeen ACC games in the next eight days. I went through the games and I think a likely finish is as follows:

    Duke 14-2
    UNC 13-3
    Clemson 10-6
    V. Tech 9-7
    Md 9-7
    Miami 8-8
    Wake 8-8
    FSU 7-9
    Ga Tech 5-11
    BC 5-11
    NCState 4-12
    Virginia 4-12

    Duke, UNC and Clemson are locks, IMO. For VT, Maryland and Miami, they all need to win at least one game in the ACCT. Assuming the three teams lose their second round games, I agree that although Miami doesn’t have a better ACC record, they are probably in a better position to get an NCAA bid than VT and the Terps. Even though they lost twice to VT, the Terps may be in a better position than VT to get a bid (better RPI, more wins against top 50, top 100) but who knows what the selection committee thinks. If either team wins both of their remaining regular season games, they are probably in unless they play a very bad game in the ACCT. In any case, I think five bids is likely.

    gw67

  7. #27
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    There are seventeen ACC games in the next eight days. I went through the games and I think a likely finish is as follows:

    Duke 14-2
    UNC 13-3
    Clemson 10-6
    V. Tech 9-7
    Md 9-7
    Miami 8-8
    Wake 8-8
    FSU 7-9
    Ga Tech 5-11
    BC 5-11
    NCState 4-12
    Virginia 4-12

    Duke, UNC and Clemson are locks, IMO. For VT, Maryland and Miami, they all need to win at least one game in the ACCT. Assuming the three teams lose their second round games, I agree that although Miami doesn’t have a better ACC record, they are probably in a better position to get an NCAA bid than VT and the Terps. Even though they lost twice to VT, the Terps may be in a better position than VT to get a bid (better RPI, more wins against top 50, top 100) but who knows what the selection committee thinks. If either team wins both of their remaining regular season games, they are probably in unless they play a very bad game in the ACCT. In any case, I think five bids is likely.

    gw67
    If that scenario holds, then on Day 2 you would most likely have MD vs. VT playing for a spot in the tournament. I'm not sure that bodes well for MD's chances of getting in since they seem to match up poorly with the Hokies. Clemson vs. Miami on day 2 would also be interesting. While Clemson would be a lock even if they lost, Miami may actually need that game to get in. I think we'd only get 4 teams in unless Clemson gets upset by Miami.

    Here's a link to the schedule so we can play with the matchups more

    http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb...tral-2008.html

  8. #28
    Dukie – You are right. Maryland (5th place) would play VTech (4th place) in the 2nd round if they won their first round game. I don’t agree with your statement that they appear to match up poorly with Tech. I watched both games and they outplayed the Hokies for most of the two games and lost both games at the end by one point and four points. I suspect that the Terps coaches and players would look at this as an opportunity to separate themselves from Tech.

    gw67

  9. #29
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    Feb 2007
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    Greensboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    Dukie – You are right. Maryland (5th place) would play VTech (4th place) in the 2nd round if they won their first round game. I don’t agree with your statement that they appear to match up poorly with Tech. I watched both games and they outplayed the Hokies for most of the two games and lost both games at the end by one point and four points. I suspect that the Terps coaches and players would look at this as an opportunity to separate themselves from Tech.

    gw67
    oh, I agree that they are more talented (I watched the games as well). I guess what I meant was that the Hokies seem to have their number this year for whatever reason. It IS very difficult to beat a team 3 times though (especially when neither team is a doormat)

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    There are seventeen ACC games in the next eight days. I went through the games and I think a likely finish is as follows:

    Duke 14-2
    UNC 13-3
    Clemson 10-6
    V. Tech 9-7
    Md 9-7
    Miami 8-8
    Wake 8-8
    FSU 7-9
    Ga Tech 5-11
    BC 5-11
    NCState 4-12
    Virginia 4-12

    Duke, UNC and Clemson are locks, IMO. For VT, Maryland and Miami, they all need to win at least one game in the ACCT. Assuming the three teams lose their second round games, I agree that although Miami doesn’t have a better ACC record, they are probably in a better position to get an NCAA bid than VT and the Terps. Even though they lost twice to VT, the Terps may be in a better position than VT to get a bid (better RPI, more wins against top 50, top 100) but who knows what the selection committee thinks. If either team wins both of their remaining regular season games, they are probably in unless they play a very bad game in the ACCT. In any case, I think five bids is likely.

    gw67
    Assuming Miami does what they are supposed to do and handles their business at home against UVa and BC, it comes down to the matchup against FSU in Tallahassee. That's a tough place to play. But if they win that and get to 9-7 in conference, they're in. With their RPI, their non-conference success, and their win over Clemson and Duke in conference, they'd be in good shape. If they lose that and sit at 8-8 in conference, they'll be sweating a bit. But I think they still get in unless they lose on Thursday in the ACC tournament.

    Maryland can solidify their bid if they win at home against Clemson. Of course that's no easy task, but if they do it then they'll likely finish 10-6 and quell any debate over their status. They'd then be an RPI top 50 with two very credible wins and a solid overall and in-conference record. If they lose to Clemson, they open the door for debate over their credibility. But compared to Va Tech, they are way ahead in terms of resume. Even though Tech beat them twice, Maryland has the shinier resume of wins. Tech just doesn't have any marquee wins.

    Tech can make their case by getting to 10-6 with a win over Clemson or getting to at least Saturday in the ACC tournament. Otherwise, I think they are on the outside looking in.

  11. #31
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Lunardi now has six ACC teams in the field: Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech join the three that are safe.

    For what it's worth, Lunardi says Va Tech is one of the last four in, and I don't think they have a very strong case. He says that Va Tech has a similar profile to Maryland, yet Maryland is a #9 and Va Tech is a 13. Also, for some reason he has Maryland ahead of Miami, despite Miami having the better record, the better RPI, more quality wins, and a win head-to-head. Either he's basing it on lingering early-season perception, or he's basing it on ACC record. Otherwise, everything seems to point toward Miami.

    But for those who were saying we'd get three, things have changed drastically over the course of the ACC season, huh?

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Lunardi now has six ACC teams in the field: Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech join the three that are safe.

    For what it's worth, Lunardi says Va Tech is one of the last four in, and I don't think they have a very strong case. He says that Va Tech has a similar profile to Maryland, yet Maryland is a #9 and Va Tech is a 13. Also, for some reason he has Maryland ahead of Miami, despite Miami having the better record, the better RPI, more quality wins, and a win head-to-head. Either he's basing it on lingering early-season perception, or he's basing it on ACC record. Otherwise, everything seems to point toward Miami.

    But for those who were saying we'd get three, things have changed drastically over the course of the ACC season, huh?
    Obviously Md gets the nod over Miami due to their national championship coach, just ask him.

  13. #33
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Lunardi now has six ACC teams in the field: Maryland, Miami, and Va Tech join the three that are safe.

    For what it's worth, Lunardi says Va Tech is one of the last four in, and I don't think they have a very strong case. He says that Va Tech has a similar profile to Maryland, yet Maryland is a #9 and Va Tech is a 13. Also, for some reason he has Maryland ahead of Miami, despite Miami having the better record, the better RPI, more quality wins, and a win head-to-head. Either he's basing it on lingering early-season perception, or he's basing it on ACC record. Otherwise, everything seems to point toward Miami.

    But for those who were saying we'd get three, things have changed drastically over the course of the ACC season, huh?
    I'd bet it's based on ACC record and "perception." No matter how much "blind" information people use in this process, there will always be subjectivity involved, and Lunardi may simply think Maryland is better.

    Oh, and depending how faithfully he's doing this to the actual bracket rules, teams occasionally need to be adjusted up or down a seed line to avoid conference conflicts. That could be a less subjective reason for the difference.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Also, as his bracketology is currently set, I might take the group of 2 seeds over the group of 1 seeds (especially if I could trade Louisville for Xavier)

    1s - Tennessee, Memphis, Texas, UNC
    2s - UCLA, Duke, Kansas, Xavier

    I think when all is said and done, at least 2 of his current 2-seeds will be sitting on the 1 line.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Obviously Md gets the nod over Miami due to their national championship coach, just ask him.
    Since the 2000 season till now, there is no other coach with a better record against Duke then you-know-who.

  16. #36
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by NDMD View Post
    Since the 2000 season till now, there is no other coach with a better record against Duke then you-know-who.
    If you're referring to Gary Williams, I don't think that's actually true. Since 2000, Gary Williams and Maryland have gone 7-8 against Duke. Roy Williams has gone 5-5. If you were including the 1999-2000 season, then Gary has an 8-10 record, and Roy has a 5-6 record.

    And of course, there's always UConn (2-0) and LSU (1-0) who have better records, but that's nitpicky. It is true that Gary Williams has the most wins in that span, but Roy Williams has had a slightly better record, among others.

  17. #37
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    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Wake Forest looked like a Top 25 team when they defeated Duke. Since then they have dropped three straight games.

    Miami evened their ACC record at 7-7 with today's win over Virginia.
    Bob Green

  18. #38
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    Hotlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Wake Forest looked like a Top 25 team when they defeated Duke. Since then they have dropped three straight games.

    Miami evened their ACC record at 7-7 with today's win over Virginia.
    That's why they're called Weak Florist.

  19. #39
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Wake Forest looked like a Top 25 team when they defeated Duke. Since then they have dropped three straight games.

    Miami evened their ACC record at 7-7 with today's win over Virginia.
    Miami dodged a BIG bullet today. Losing at home to UVa would have put them at 6-8, meaning they'd have to win out and probably win two games in the ACC tourney. By getting that win, they can breathe a little easier. But they have to play better than that to beat BC and FSU.

    I think Wake, on the other hand, now has to win the ACC tourney to get in. They really needed to show something on the road, and to finish 9-7 in conference.

  20. #40
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    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, Va

    Lunardi has Miami as a lock tonight

    Just saw him on the network. I've enjoyed the discussion here as I usually am very involved in it. The ACC will certainly get an extra team or two in as some other conferences' teams flounder down the stretch (see Kansas St tonight). How many Big East teams get bids will really determine what happens for the others, IMO. Is the Big East all that good or all that mediocre? Big Televen is (again) not loaded to any stretch. Fla and UK aren't anywhere near as good as usual, so how good is the SEC? It's been a strange year for college hoops. I'm never sold on the Pac-10, tho they'll get more bids than the ACC certainly.
    Good stuff, keep it coming.
    I do like Kansas and Texas to go way deep. DJ Augustin has been amazing lately.

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