ACC Bubble Watch

[CDu]

Just saw him on the network. I've enjoyed the discussion here as I usually am very involved in it. The ACC will certainly get an extra team or two in as some other conferences' teams flounder down the stretch (see Kansas St tonight). How many Big East teams get bids will really determine what happens for the others, IMO. Is the Big East all that good or all that mediocre? Big Televen is (again) not loaded to any stretch. Fla and UK aren't anywhere near as good as usual, so how good is the SEC? It's been a strange year for college hoops. I'm never sold on the Pac-10, tho they'll get more bids than the ACC certainly.
Good stuff, keep it coming.
I do like Kansas and Texas to go way deep. DJ Augustin has been amazing lately.

Miami really SHOULD be a lock, with their overall record, their non-conference performance and the wins over Duke and Clemson in conference. But I fear that some may get hung up on the conference record, which may end up 8-8. If they get to 9-7, though, there's absolutely no way they don't get in. They probably get in at 8-8 too.

[Duvall]

Miami really SHOULD be a lock, with their overall record, their non-conference performance and the wins over Duke and Clemson in conference. But I fear that some may get hung up on the conference record, which may end up 8-8. If they get to 9-7, though, there's absolutely no way they don't get in. They probably get in at 8-8 too.

I don't see how it would even be a question - at 8-8 Miami would have at worst a 21-10 record and an RPI of about 30. Those are 8/9 seed numbers, not bubble numbers.

[Chitowndevil]

Clemson and Miami are in nearly identical situations. Both basically just need to avoid losing all their remaining games (Miami may need to win 2 to be safe).

Unfortunately I have a much dimmer view of VT and Maryland's chances than others I've seen. The two are a collective 1-10 against the RPI top 50 and only one game each above .500 against RPI 51-100 teams. Despite being 8-6, both need to get to 10 ACC wins to even stay in the conversation, and both have games against Clemson remaining and very possibly an ACC Tourney matchup against each other.

I'd still guess 5 teams against the ACC, just because I think the bubble this year is very soft. Even so, there is a VERY realistic chance that VT ends up with 10 ACC wins and still misses the tourney. ZERO quality wins will punch your NIT ticket every time.

[CDu]

I don't see how it would even be a question - at 8-8 Miami would have at worst a 21-10 record and an RPI of about 30. Those are 8/9 seed numbers, not bubble numbers.

I agree. That's why I said they should be a lock. The only way they wouldn't be a lock at 8-8 in conference is if the committee REALLY gets hung up on the 8-8 thing. I suspect they won't. So if Miami gets to 8-8 in conference and doesn't lose to a terrible team in the ACC tourney, they should be pretty safe.

Meanwhile, Maryland is trying to make their case tonight against Clemson. They're up 37-23 late in the first half. A win tonight gets them to 9 wins in conference (with a strong probability of 10) and gives them a second quality win for the season to offset bad losses. It'd boost their RPI into the 40s, which would probably be enough. They don't necessarily need this win, but it would make their lives a lot easier.

[CDu]

Maryland just threw away a golden opportunity tonight. They were up by 20 points (20!) in the second half, and lost by three. A win tonight would have locked up a bid for them. Now, they remain on the bubble. Just a tough, tough loss for Maryland.

This also makes the game against UNC a lot more important for us. I'd much rather face Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, not Clemson. now that Clemson is all but set at the #3 seed, we need to beat UNC to get a #1 seed in the ACC tourney to avoid having to go through both UNC and Clemson in the tournament. And, of course, winning against UNC would probably lock up a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament for us, too.

[roywhite]

Wow...great comeback by Clemson; they were down 20 with about 12 minutes to go, and then down 12 or 13 with like 8 minutes to go. Tied it up on a steal and dunk by Mays with about 40 seconds to go, and got the lead with a huge 3 by Oglesby with 2.5 seconds left. Maryland got only a desperation heave; the Terps looked crushed.

After the heart-breaking losses to UNC, kinda glad to see Clemson win a close one.

[SMO]

Maryland just threw away a golden opportunity tonight. They were up by 20 points (20!) in the second half, and lost by three. A win tonight would have locked up a bid for them. Now, they remain on the bubble. Just a tough, tough loss for Maryland.

This also makes the game against UNC a lot more important for us. I'd much rather face Maryland in the second round of the ACC tournament, not Clemson. now that Clemson is all but set at the #3 seed, we need to beat UNC to get a #1 seed in the ACC tourney to avoid having to go through both UNC and Clemson in the tournament. And, of course, winning against UNC would probably lock up a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament for us, too.

So I was watching this until MD was up 50-35. Clemson couldn't make a layup, couldn't get a call, and looked ragged on offense, so I switched channels. Just switched back to see the final and they won! Unbelievable! This has to be just debilitating to Maryland.

[OldPhiKap]

So I was watching this until MD was up 50-35. Clemson couldn't make a layup, couldn't get a call, and looked ragged on offense, so I switched channels. Just switched back to see the final and they won! Unbelievable! This has to be just debilitating to Maryland.

It will be ugly in College Park if they don't make the tourney. Boy, I'd really hate to see that happen. Yup, just hate it.

[SMO]

It will be ugly in College Park if they don't make the tourney. Boy, I'd really hate to see that happen. Yup, just hate it.

There might even be [GASP!] riots in the streets! Can you imagine!

[OldPhiKap]

There might even be [GASP!] riots in the streets! Can you imagine!

Yeah, the fans are so depressed they only throw AAA batteries instead of D's.

[Uncle Drew]

Fatherston's article indicates Duke< UNC, Clemson and Miami are fairly safe best to make the NCAA tourney. While the ACC would like to have one possibly two more additions to the NCAA. Viginia Tech and Maryland are the highest rated also rans at this point and both will need some victories and perhaps help from other teams losing around America.

My gut tells me five, but four wouldn't surprise me and six bids would shock me. Most people think Duke or UNC are locks for a #1 seed depending on wins in their next game, how the last game between them goes and the ACC tourney. It's cliche to say, but both teams hold their fates in their own hands. I don't see either dropping below a #2. Its the rest of the ACC that get's confusing when putting a bracket together.

Questions:

Is Clemson a lock at this point, what in your opinion is their highest possible NCAA seed and lowest

Miami had some impressive wins, are they truly prety much assured of getting a bid and how high or low?

Personally I think MD and Miami still have some work to do. Miami looks to be in decent shape but a loss this last week of regualr sason play could hurt them. MD mean while has a decent win, but I don't think they can lose their last two games, if they lose one or both they will have to make a deep run in the ACC tourney to make the field of 65.

Comment away and explain why you think as you do. Remember history has NOT been kind to the ACC come selection time, and there is no ACC representation on the sellection committee.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I really don't see Duke and UNC as locks yet for a 1 seed. I won't be surprised by it, but this week dictates who gets what. If Duke wins the rematch, then Carolina will need a strong showing in the ACC's to get a 1, if (not gonna happen) UNC wins, then Duke will have to win the tourney to get one.
If our path is not through Charlotte, honestly I won't mind going elsewhere as a 2.
As for the rest of the conference, I think 4 is a good bet. I really think to have a 5th, that team will have to win the tourney. This is not a knock against our conference either. We have such great parity in the ACC, this time of year drives me nuts. I FEEL that at least 6 teams could do really well in the tourney, but due to conference records and out of conference play, I think we get only those 4 in. Hopefully, the other teams will get some better wins outside of the ACC next year and make this thread moot.

[CDu]

Fatherston's article indicates Duke< UNC, Clemson and Miami are fairly safe best to make the NCAA tourney. While the ACC would like to have one possibly two more additions to the NCAA. Viginia Tech and Maryland are the highest rated also rans at this point and both will need some victories and perhaps help from other teams losing around America.

My gut tells me five, but four wouldn't surprise me and six bids would shock me. Most people think Duke or UNC are locks for a #1 seed depending on wins in their next game, how the last game between them goes and the ACC tourney. It's cliche to say, but both teams hold their fates in their own hands. I don't see either dropping below a #2. Its the rest of the ACC that get's confusing when putting a bracket together.

Questions:

Is Clemson a lock at this point, what in your opinion is their highest possible NCAA seed and lowest

Miami had some impressive wins, are they truly prety much assured of getting a bid and how high or low?

Personally I think MD and Miami still have some work to do. Miami looks to be in decent shape but a loss this last week of regualr sason play could hurt them. MD mean while has a decent win, but I don't think they can lose their last two games, if they lose one or both they will have to make a deep run in the ACC tourney to make the field of 65.

Comment away and explain why you think as you do. Remember history has NOT been kind to the ACC come selection time, and there is no ACC representation on the sellection committee.

Clemson is a lock. There just aren't 30 teams with a better at-large profile than them. They have three quality wins, no bad losses, an RPI in the top 20, a winning conference record, and quality wins against other major conferences' upper-tier teams. They're in, and depending upon tournament performance could range anywhere from a #4 to a #8/9, in my guess.

Miami needs to get to 8-8 in conference. If they do that, I think they're in. That means they could lose one of the next two games. They really should win both, though, and remove any doubt.

Maryland has only one game remaining (@UVa). It goes without saying that the UVa is a must-win game. They are going to need to beat UVa, then probably win two in the ACC tournament to make themselves comfortable. Otherwise, I agree with Lunardi who has them FIRMLY on the bubble.

The bigger thorn in Maryland's side is Va Tech, who has a terrible tournament profile (no wins against tournament-quality teams, 4-8 against the RPI top 100) but swept Maryland this year. If Maryland had simply split with Va Tech, they'd probably be headed towards lock status right now.

Also, I disagree that the committee has not been kind to the ACC. Just last year, we got six teams in with no team being below a #7 seed. Sure, there have been years in which the ACC didn't get much love, but I think that frequently that's been a case of the conference just being REALLY top-heavy.

[Chitowndevil]

I really don't see Duke and UNC as locks yet for a 1 seed. I won't be surprised by it, but this week dictates who gets what. If Duke wins the rematch, then Carolina will need a strong showing in the ACC's to get a 1, if (not gonna happen) UNC wins, then Duke will have to win the tourney to get one.
If our path is not through Charlotte, honestly I won't mind going elsewhere as a 2.
As for the rest of the conference, I think 4 is a good bet. I really think to have a 5th, that team will have to win the tourney. This is not a knock against our conference either. We have such great parity in the ACC, this time of year drives me nuts. I FEEL that at least 6 teams could do really well in the tourney, but due to conference records and out of conference play, I think we get only those 4 in. Hopefully, the other teams will get some better wins outside of the ACC next year and make this thread moot.

Neither Duke nor UNC are locks for a #1 seed. In particular if Duke beats UNC on Saturday and neither wins the ACC Tourney, all bets are off. In that case, one of Memphis, Tennessee, UCLA, or Kansas/Texas (whichever goes farther in the Big 12) would have to stumble in their remaining regular season games and/or lose in their conference tourney. Also, don't forget Georgetown, who isn't on a lot of peoples' radar currently, but could actually make a good case for a #1 if they beat Louisville this Saturday and win the Big East Tournament.

In talking bubble teams, don't forget the bubble is VERY soft this year, and that 34 teams do have to get in! With their RPI and having played an extremely tough conference schedule, Miami probably only needs one more win including the ACC tourney to get in. Virginia Tech, sitting at 0-5 against RPI top 50 teams and having ZERO wins against top 100 teams away from home, would ordinarily be the longest of longshots at this point, but I actually think they are in if they can win their regular season finale at Clemson and win a game in the ACCs. Maryland must beat Virginia and win at least one (preferably two) games in the ACC Tournament.

Bottom line, I'd lay equal odds on 4 and 5 bids for the ACC right now.

[Olympic Fan]

Jerry Palm's latest bracket is up on collegerpi.com (sorry, I can't link it ... it's a pay site -- but well worth the money).

Palm is moaning because there are so many lousy bubble teams -- he's had to include several that in normal years would be out. Maryland (which he has as a 12 seed) is clearly one of those. He has Miami (and Clemson) firmly in the field. Of Miami, he says they need to win one of their final two to go from being safely in to a lock.

However, the most interesting thing in his bracket is the Duke-UNC situation. He has UNC as a No. 1 seed and Duke as a No. 2 -- no problem with that, although Saturday's game (and the tourney) could change that.

But he has Tennessee as the No. 1 seed in Charlotte, while he has UNC at No. 4 in Detroit. Duke gets to stay in Charlotte as a No. 2 seed.

I still think that's a long shot, but I've warned that it could happen. If it does, it will be fun to visit IC and see all the screaming.

[pfrduke]

Virginia Tech is currently laying waste to Wake Forest. That pretty much takes care of the Deacs, short of an ACC championship. The Hokies now travel to Clemson with a chance to possibly lock up a bid before the ACCT (assuming they hold a 28 point lead with 12:33 to play).

[RepoMan]

If the Hokies can beat Clemson, I find it hard to imagine that they won't make the tournament.

I know. I know. Unbalanced schedule. RPI. Etc. Etc. Still, 10-6 in the ACC?

You have to tip your cap to Seth Greenberg. Over the last few years, his teams regularly overachieve by a large margin. It will be interesting to see what he can do with that program if he can boost their recruiting profile by a bit--maybe add a McD or two to the roster.

Think about it. It is hard to imagine that Va Tech's basketball program is moving toward the top of ACC. Aside from Duke and UNC, what schools have done better over the past 3 years?

[pfrduke]

If the Hokies can beat Clemson, I find it hard to imagine that they won't make the tournament.

I know. I know. Unbalanced schedule. RPI. Etc. Etc. Still, 10-6 in the ACC?

You have to tip your cap to Seth Greenberg. Over the last few years, his teams regularly overachieve by a large margin. It will be interesting to see what he can do with that program if he can boost their recruiting profile by a bit--maybe add a McD or two to the roster.

Think about it. It is hard to imagine that Va Tech's basketball program is moving toward the top of ACC. Aside from Duke and UNC, what schools have done better over the past 3 years?

Not to mention they'll be all alone in third place if they beat Clemson. That's pretty much a lock, as far as I'm concerned.

Now, I don't think they'll beat Clemson, but then again, I thought the Hokies were pretty much done after getting whipped by 39 at UNC.

[CDu]

Not to mention they'll be all alone in third place if they beat Clemson. That's pretty much a lock, as far as I'm concerned.

Now, I don't think they'll beat Clemson, but then again, I thought the Hokies were pretty much done after getting whipped by 39 at UNC.

Agreed on both points.

If they beat Clemson, the Hokies will be in. They'd be 10-6 in conference and they'd have a quality road win. And they'd complete a very strong finish to the season, indicating that they're playing their best ball now. And most importantly, they'd take the glaring goose egg against the RPI top-50 off of their resume.

That said, I don't think they'll beat Clemson. Clemson is too deep and has superior guard play. However, the injury to Hammonds certainly opens the door for a possibility.