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  1. Early Duke Tourney Predictions

    I know we've all already started thinking about it. In fact, many of us have been thinking about it for weeks if not months. So, let's hear it! How far do you think this Duke team will get in the tourney. Please include simple explanations afterwards. I want to hear from Duke Nation!!!

    I'll start:

    Quite simply: I think they can win it all, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. Given the fact that they can put five passers and/or five 3-point shooters (2-3 of which can rebound reasonably well) on the floor at any given time, I think they have a legit shot at making the E-8. That's my prediction.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Carolina
    Elite 8 - would be awesome given the lack of a big bruiser down low. They'll just get beat by a team on a roll that matches up well. I'd be super pleased with an elite 8 finish.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    Prediction: Loss in the Final Four. Assuming we get a 1 seed, I think Duke can and should be able to make it out of the East region. In the Final 4, I see us facing either Kansas or UCLA and those are the only 2 teams in America with which I believe Duke will have too much on their hands to overcome.

    I've said all along that KU and UCLA are the 2 best teams in America and while UCLA has had some head-scratching losses, I have no doubts they'll be ready come March; you don't make it to two straight FFs by accident. They lost Afflalo but the addition of Love is bigger than that loss, IMO.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I think it all depends on the draw they get, as well as what happens to the other powerhouse teams.

    There are some teams that present some serious matchup problems, teams like Indiana, Kansas, UCLA, Texas, UNC... so if Duke runs into one of those teams, could be a short run.

    Realistically, I'd say Elite 8. If all falls into place, Final 4 or even winning the whole dadgum thing.

  5. #5
    I will reiterate what Luke Winn said here: Duke's success in the tournament will depend on match-ups more so than any other elite team. Having said that, the other major question mark (which I have mentioned before) is Gerald Henderson's wrist/hand injury. Without knowing how well he will be able to play in March, it is hard to judge. When one of your two most dynamic scorers (next to Singler, IMO) is unable to score, it hurts. Now, Duke's offense is based on versatility, so we may be able to weather it better than some teams, but I would say without a healthy Gerald we flame out in the Sweet 16. With a moderately productive (90% healthy) Gerald, Final Four.

  6. #6

    NCAA tournament

    I believe the driver to Duke's success in this year's NCAA tournament is Duke itself, much more so than who our matchups are, what region we get into, how close to home do we play, how other teams are playing. Duke will drive it's own destiny.

    Will Duke be playing as well or better than they've been playing all year? (in other words, will they be peaking in March/April?). How is the team, mentally and physically? Using K's words from last year, "they were really tired. By the end, we were dead". Will this year's team be wearing down or be worn out come mid March? Physically or Mentally? That could be 10 games from now before we know.

    How healthy will the Devils be? We have certainly seen a marked difference in performance with Henderson's wrist the last few games...will it be better in one month? Will we get further injuries in these last 10 games? Will Zoubek make any progress between now and then to provide a little help in the middle? Will K keep his 7-9 man rotation going? (I don't count 2-4 minutes in the first half of a game as being in the rotation).

    It seems to me that Duke has more than it's fair share of injuries. If you take the three freshmen out of the equation since they've only been there for 24 games(and there is some indication that Smith is playing hurt), of the remaining 8 scholarship players, by my count, 6 of the 8 have had significant injuries that have strongly impeded their play or have put them out for long periods of time (Henderson, Paulus, Nelson, McClure, Zoubek, Pocius). I would say Scheyer and Thomas have escaped these major setbacks??

    I say healthiness and reasonably mentally and physically ready to go are the keys...

    GMR

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    San Jose, CA
    A lot depends on matchups and luck of the draw in the NCAA Tournament.

    If you look at the '05 and '06 tournaments, the Devils were better than Michigan State and LSU throughout the season, but Duke had matchup problems at the wrong time and ran out of gas. Even though those squads had shortcomings and seemed to have little left in the tank, a different matchup in the Sweet 16 and they still could've gotten to the Final Four. It's just that Michigan State in '05 was a tough defensive/rebounding team that Duke beat early in the season, which was a terrible draw for the Devils on multiple levels. LSU the next season had a ton of athleticism and length that could chase JJ around and contest shots. BTW, I always remember McRoberts somehow missing a gimme dunk/lay-in that would've given Duke a 4-point lead with a couple minutes left against LSU and really could've changed the outcome.

    I really think Duke will have the horses to get through the first weekend without too much trouble, but even then the second round could be a challenge if the wrong team falls down to an 8/9 seed. But teams end up there for a reason and Duke is obviously better than anybody it'll face in round two.

    It sure would be nice to find Duke playing Drake or Butler in the Sweet 16 rather than UConn, but I wouldn't bet on it. I just hope Duke is healthy for the tournament. The last three seasons Duke has just seemed to run out of gas in March. Last year was different because the team struggled, but health issue were there too. I mentioned 2005 and 2006.

    I really think this could be like 2004. I have a feeling that Duke will reach the Final Four or lose a close one in the Sweet 16 to a team that is a bad matchup. If they do make the national semifinals then I won't try to predict what happens because we don't know who'll be there. I'll live with just the Final Four (actually, be thrilled) as long as it doesn't end with a loss to UNC, UConn or a team of that ilk.

    You just never know. It is fun to look at Bracketology every week on ESPN, but I generally just browse Duke's region and forget about it because things change so much late in the season. Who would've thought even a week ago that Wake would be in the mix? I saw UConn get drilled at home by Providence and the two have gone opposite directions since. Teams in the 3-6 range will fall and teams in the 7-9 range will rise in the seedings. That's why I always worry about potential second round opponents. Right now you've got schools like USC, Oklahoma, etc. that could all pose a very real threat to Duke, especially if the Devils start to get tired or banged up or Henderson can't shake his wrist injury.

    This is a tricky time to project Duke's postseason since the Devils are coming off a bad performance against a semi-bubble team. Assuming Duke plays like it has played for most of the season I'm thinking Final Four unless there is a mathcup problem in the Sweet 16 (rematch, hot team, etc.).

  8. #8
    Final Two. But, the committee is going to try and match the bruin and the heel in order to drool over the match between Love Machine and Frankenstein on Saturday. Ratings, baby.
    I don't see Memphis getting to SA.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by Classof06 View Post
    Prediction: Loss in the Final Four. Assuming we get a 1 seed, I think Duke can and should be able to make it out of the East region. In the Final 4, I see us facing either Kansas or UCLA and those are the only 2 teams in America with which I believe Duke will have too much on their hands to overcome.

    I've said all along that KU and UCLA are the 2 best teams in America and while UCLA has had some head-scratching losses, I have no doubts they'll be ready come March; you don't make it to two straight FFs by accident. They lost Afflalo but the addition of Love is bigger than that loss, IMO.
    It is all about the draw. In the current bracketology, UCLA and Kansas are in the same region. That would be great for Duke, and the rest of the country.

    If we slip to a #2 and were paired with Memphis, I'd be happier with that than being a #1 and getting UCLA or Kansas as our #2.

    I think if this thread were started last Saturday a lot more people would be predicting a Final Four or a National Championship. I still think that is where this team is headed. Don't let a road conference loss to a good team affect your evaluation of how far Duke can go too much. In 1992 we lost at Wake also. In 1991, we had 6 regular season losses and got smoked by UNC in the ACC championship game. In 2002, Maryland lost in the ACC semis. National Championship teams lose during the season. There's a reason nobody has gone undefeated and won it all since 1976.

    We have as good a chance as anyone to bring home gold trophy #4.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  10. #10
    actually I would say we have significantly better chances than most schools to win our 4th National Title...

  11. #11

    tourney

    after tonites performance, I have a feeling we will be out yet again in the sweet 16.

  12. #12
    sweet 16. Great coach + great high school players= early exit . I don't know why.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Toledo
    actually I would say we have significantly better chances than most schools to win our 4th National Title...
    Yeah, that would be because no other program out there has three. Lol.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Toledo
    Sweet 16 is where our ride is concluded, IMO. I will even fear the Second Round matchup.

    This is going to be a benzo dependent tournament.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    Forget a Number # 1 seed

    You are dreaming if you think that Duke will get a number # 1 seed in the tournament. We will be lucky to get a number 2 seed, ( because of our reputation we might get one but it is not deserved). You are probably looking at a number 3.

    As to reaching the Final 4 , the way Duke is playing , how can you assume that they can or will beat 3 quality teams to get there?

    Winning the tournament...NO WAY !!!

    Least you forget, how many times this year was Duke behind at half time...they will not get away with that against quality teams in the tournament and could get bounced early no matter how bright those rose-colored glasses you are wearing.This team is flawed and their deficiencies are starting to show.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Van Nuys, CA

    Unhappy

    After the Wake and Miami efforts, I won't be surprised if they get upset in the 1st game of both ACC and the NCAA tourneys. They have lost the edge they had in their game.You would expect they would have played with passion in the Miami game,but it did not happen til it was too late. Coach K may be great,but the team is not executing worth a damn right now.

  17. #17
    Not shocking to see people overreacting. It's sad how short a lot of our memories are.

    Again, I will echo the OP's sentiment: we can win it all. But as always, it will depend on our ability to play consistently and luck with match-ups. That said, most likely I see something like a Sweet 16 to Final Four run. In reality, I don't think much separates the two but a little bit of luck.

    I don't buy the idea of classifying teams as "Final Four" teams or "Elite 8" teams or "Sweet 16" teams, because a lot of it just has to do with how a team comes out and plays and how favorable the match-ups are.

    Nothing that has happened in the last 4 or 5 days should change anyone's mind that this Duke team is among the nation's elite 5 or 6 teams. A week ago we were 22-1 and the #2 team in the country on a 12 game winning streak including sweeping Maryland and beating UNC in Chapel Hill. We played two bad games since then, but nothing has changed that simple fact. UCLA lost to Washington. UCLA lost to USC at home. UCLA lost to Texas at home. Did that deter anyone from saying they were among the elite in the country? Of course not.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    VA-NC
    Not only does our NCAA run depend on our health (read: Henderson's) but our performance in the ACC Tourney will affect our run. I don't think momentum is absolutely necessary but it certainly would help give these guys more confidence and give them a chance to possibly avenge one of these recent losses.
    They also need to improve on their FT shooting down the stretch.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by mepanchin View Post
    Not shocking to see people overreacting. It's sad how short a lot of our memories are.

    Again, I will echo the OP's sentiment: we can win it all. But as always, it will depend on our ability to play consistently and luck with match-ups. That said, most likely I see something like a Sweet 16 to Final Four run. In reality, I don't think much separates the two but a little bit of luck.

    I don't buy the idea of classifying teams as "Final Four" teams or "Elite 8" teams or "Sweet 16" teams, because a lot of it just has to do with how a team comes out and plays and how favorable the match-ups are.

    Nothing that has happened in the last 4 or 5 days should change anyone's mind that this Duke team is among the nation's elite 5 or 6 teams. A week ago we were 22-1 and the #2 team in the country on a 12 game winning streak including sweeping Maryland and beating UNC in Chapel Hill. We played two bad games since then, but nothing has changed that simple fact. UCLA lost to Washington. UCLA lost to USC at home. UCLA lost to Texas at home. Did that deter anyone from saying they were among the elite in the country? Of course not.
    It is not overreacting...just being realistic. Yes we beat UNC at Chapel Hill, but UNC played without Lawson and Ellington had a horrendous shooting night.When Duke was ranked #2 do you honestly believe that we were the second best team in the country ?

    Be realistic, when you say that Duke can win it all. Based on what you have seen this year, do you believe that Duke can beat 5 quality teams in a row? We were only up by 6 or 8 points to Cornell at Cameron with 3 minutes left in the game. How many times were we behind at half time ? Do you believe that against 5 quality teams we can turn it on like we did this year in the second half ?

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Duke Fan View Post
    It is not overreacting...just being realistic. Yes we beat UNC at Chapel Hill, but UNC played without Lawson and Ellington had a horrendous shooting night.When Duke was ranked #2 do you honestly believe that we were the second best team in the country ?

    Be realistic, when you say that Duke can win it all. Based on what you have seen this year, do you believe that Duke can beat 5 quality teams in a row? We were only up by 6 or 8 points to Cornell at Cameron with 3 minutes left in the game. How many times were we behind at half time ? Do you believe that against 5 quality teams we can turn it on like we did this year in the second half ?
    I believe we CAN, but I don't think it will happen (I know - really going out on a limb to predict that a team won't win the championship). We'd have to have a lot of luck on our side, and we just can't afford to let up or have an off-night. Teams with athletic bigs and multiple quick, penetrating guards have the potential to give us fits, like Wake and Miami did. We have to adjust and find a way to fix that problem, because defensively we've gotten torched in back to back games by mediocre teams.

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