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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Virginia

    7-2 could be 3-6!

    For all of the pre-season talk about how dominate UNC was going to be this year and how they might run the table in the acc, their 7-2 record could very easily be 3-6. Besides their 2 loses to MD and Duke, they have had two acc games go to overtime and 2 other games decided by made/missed last second shots. In those six games their average margin a victory is -1 (I only assigned a 1 point victory for the overtime games because giving a team a double digit victory for a game that was dead even after 40 minutes doesn't seem right). Their overall margin for victory for acc games is +7 ppg. That is far from dominate especially since their two losses and 1 overtime game came in Chapel Hill.

    I realize that Lawson has missed 3 of those games (I count FSU as a miss since he only played 4 minutes) but even still, those are not overly impressive numbers for a team that was picked pre-season #1 and a favorite to win the NC. I wonder if they are not quite as good as everyone thought or if something is a miss up on the hill. It will be interesting to see how the close games effect them come tourney time. All of these close games have to make them mentally stronger and give them confidence in close games but they can also be mentally/physically draining, especially the overtime periods. Are the close games a blessing or a sign of troubled seas ahead?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville NC
    Quote Originally Posted by yancem View Post
    For all of the pre-season talk about how dominate UNC was going to be this year and how they might run the table in the acc, their 7-2 record could very easily be 3-6. Besides their 2 loses to MD and Duke, they have had two acc games go to overtime and 2 other games decided by made/missed last second shots. In those six games their average margin a victory is -1 (I only assigned a 1 point victory for the overtime games because giving a team a double digit victory for a game that was dead even after 40 minutes doesn't seem right). Their overall margin for victory for acc games is +7 ppg. That is far from dominate especially since their two losses and 1 overtime game came in Chapel Hill.

    I realize that Lawson has missed 3 of those games (I count FSU as a miss since he only played 4 minutes) but even still, those are not overly impressive numbers for a team that was picked pre-season #1 and a favorite to win the NC. I wonder if they are not quite as good as everyone thought or if something is a miss up on the hill. It will be interesting to see how the close games effect them come tourney time. All of these close games have to make them mentally stronger and give them confidence in close games but they can also be mentally/physically draining, especially the overtime periods. Are the close games a blessing or a sign of troubled seas ahead?
    I lose composure when I only talk about how good UNC is or is going to be. Sorry I can't help!!

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Don't forget that they lost Frasor, too.

    I wish they were 3-6, but the fact is that they have found ways to win those games. Usually by wearing/fouling out the defenders on Hansborough. I think those close games will help them down the stretch, although fatigue may become an issue at the end.

    Carolina is a solid offensive team. Defense is more of a question to me. But they are a solid 2 or 3 seed and could pop up higher if they get on a roll and Duke falters (I've got to figure that the ACC will have at least one #1 seed).

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    They kind of remind me of the way our 2006 team was winning. We had that gaudy record at 27-1, but a lot of people were talking about how it could very easily be 20-8 because we had all these last-second escapes. They're still a very good team, but they do an awful lot of screwing around.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    They kind of remind me of the way our 2006 team was winning. We had that gaudy record at 27-1, but a lot of people were talking about how it could very easily be 20-8 because we had all these last-second escapes. They're still a very good team, but they do an awful lot of screwing around.
    There are a few similarities indeed. Beyond the number of close wins, they also are very reliant on two dominant players, and don't have much quality depth. Hopefully, they have the same fate as our 2006 team - losing in the Sweet 16.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Don't forget that they lost Frasor, too.

    I wish they were 3-6, but the fact is that they have found ways to win those games. Usually by wearing/fouling out the defenders on Hansborough. I think those close games will help them down the stretch, although fatigue may become an issue at the end.

    Carolina is a solid offensive team. Defense is more of a question to me. But they are a solid 2 or 3 seed and could pop up higher if they get on a roll and Duke falters (I've got to figure that the ACC will have at least one #1 seed).
    The loss of Frasor hurts, especially in light of the recent Lawson injury but he is gone for the season and UNC will have to adjust. Actually, I think that Thomas has done an admirable job considering. you can never discount finding a way to win but you can't win all the close games and the best way to avoid a close loss is to not have a close game. You can't always count on the other team missing a layup/jumper/free throw at the end of the game. Nor can you count on your players to always make the last second 3 to win the game.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Don't forget that they lost Frasor, too.

    I wish they were 3-6, but the fact is that they have found ways to win those games. Usually by wearing/fouling out the defenders on Hansborough. I think those close games will help them down the stretch, although fatigue may become an issue at the end.

    Carolina is a solid offensive team. Defense is more of a question to me. But they are a solid 2 or 3 seed and could pop up higher if they get on a roll and Duke falters (I've got to figure that the ACC will have at least one #1 seed).
    they didnt find a way to win the one that mattered...we beat em at HOME!
    I dont care if they had Lawson or not an (alleged) #3 team in the country should be able to win without a player. Frasor...honestly...it'd be like Duke complaining they dont have Marty...not that they arent good, both are better than I'll ever be, but, not a solid argument. Wanna talk about a loss...what if Hanstravel went down...?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by BigTedder View Post
    they didnt find a way to win the one that mattered...we beat em at HOME!
    I dont care if they had Lawson or not an (alleged) #3 team in the country should be able to win without a player. Frasor...honestly...it'd be like Duke complaining they dont have Marty...not that they arent good, both are better than I'll ever be, but, not a solid argument. Wanna talk about a loss...what if Hanstravel went down...?

    I SURE do not want to be in a position of defending UNC. But equating Frasor's role in UNC's team to Marty's in ours is a bit tough for me to do. It is more like when Greg was hurt, and we really did not have a good back-up pg -- I don't remember that season too fondly.

    Re: comparing UNC to our 2006 team: good analogy. Although we clearly don't dance on the sideline as well as UNC does. (Honestly, it must give Dean heart tremors everytime he sees that).

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Colorado Springs, Colorado

    Never Count on Clemson

    I can't believe anyone can blow a 15 point lead with 7:36 left on the clock, and do so rather easily. Either Purnell really is a horrible coach, or Clemson simply has accepted the fact that they are losers. No composure, can't hit free throws, they have no idea what it looks like to milk the clock, my God how difficult is it to play four corners.

    What a choke.

  10. #10
    Its tough to say whether it is an indicator of troubled seas or a blessing. The cliche that "good teams find ways to win games" comes to mind. They have faced adversity and come away with a win in all but 2 contests - the "W" is the ultimate goal anyway, right? I dont think they have the feel of a team that will make a deep run into the NCAA tourney though.

    I know some have made an issue of Green's dancing, and it may just be a kid having fun and no big deal, but something about it doesnt sit well with me. The look on the Duke player's (coaches and managers too) faces and their demeanor before and during the game indicated they were on a mission and we're not leaving the DES building without a win. Green and cohorts dancing at tipoff just gave me the indication that the same intensity might not be there - except for Psycho T.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by RockyMtDevil View Post
    I can't believe anyone can blow a 15 point lead with 7:36 left on the clock, and do so rather easily. Either Purnell really is a horrible coach, or Clemson simply has accepted the fact that they are losers. No composure, can't hit free throws, they have no idea what it looks like to milk the clock, my God how difficult is it to play four corners.

    What a choke.
    I'm pretty sure we've had some impressive collapses, too, so let's not get overboard on burying Clemson. And with the pace UNC plays, a 15 point lead is not quite as substantial.

    It was a tough, tough loss. But UNC had to play as well as they could for those last 5 minutes or so, and Clemson just had a really bad stretch. It happens. How they bounce back will tell me more about Clemson's coach and team than the ineptitude down the stretch of regulation last night.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    I wish they were 3-6, but the fact is that they have found ways to win those games.
    I'd say that's the most important part of all of it. They've played well enough at the end of games to get the win. I think the opposite example of an ACC team who has lost all the close games this year has been UVA. That team could very easily have a winning record in conference.

    -2 OT losses to Va. Tech
    -1 OT loss to Ga. Tech
    - 69-67 loss to FSU

    Win all those games and they'd be at 5-4, instead of 1-8. Funny how things work out like that.

  13. #13

    Hospital

    Quote Originally Posted by RockyMtDevil View Post
    I can't believe anyone can blow a 15 point lead with 7:36 left on the clock, and do so rather easily. Either Purnell really is a horrible coach, or Clemson simply has accepted the fact that they are losers. No composure, can't hit free throws, they have no idea what it looks like to milk the clock, my God how difficult is it to play four corners.

    What a choke.

    Yeah I had been keeping tabs on the game and saw UNC was down 15. I thought THIS is the year the record ends! About 7:00 I started getting SEVERE abdominal pains and drove myself to the hospital keeled over and throwing up. After bing diagnosed with a kidney stone and having some nurse try in vain to insert a catheter my night was going great. But I thought to myself, well at least UNC finally lost to Clemson. It wasn't until a male nurse in a UNC shirt informed me the University of Northern Carborro beat Clemson in double OT that I found out. I do think UNC is the better team betweeen the two this year. But if they didn't win in Chapel Hell yesterday and couldn't pull it off durring Carolina's 8-20 season I seriously don't think that record will ever stop growing....barring some unforseen probation, or mass food poisoning. Even then me thinks their JV team would have enough of the curse on their side to pull out a win over the tigers.

  14. #14
    I don't think playing a lot of close games is beneficial for two reasons:

    1. It's tiring. Not only physically in that you have to compete for 40 minutes, but mentally because you really have to keep your focus for entire games. The stress of it builds.

    2. More importantly, if you play a bunch of close games, it doesn't mean you are a battle hardened team that can win in adversity, it means you are playing a bunch of games about evenly with your opponents - and maybe slightly better. The fact is, most of these opponents are not nearly as talented as UNC and these should be easier wins than they are.

    Even with Lawson, UNC played 3 games to a one possession finish in the ACC - only one of which (Clemson) is really justifiable. I like the 2005-06 Duke comparison (especially because that Duke team was inconsistent on defense as this UNC team is) but I also like the Wake 2004-05 comparison: excellent on offense, lackluster on defense. That Wake team got a #2 seed and bowed out in the 2nd round.

  15. #15

    Perfect Example

    Quote Originally Posted by mepanchin View Post
    I don't think playing a lot of close games is beneficial for two reasons:

    1. It's tiring. Not only physically in that you have to compete for 40 minutes, but mentally because you really have to keep your focus for entire games. The stress of it builds.

    2. More importantly, if you play a bunch of close games, it doesn't mean you are a battle hardened team that can win in adversity, it means you are playing a bunch of games about evenly with your opponents - and maybe slightly better. The fact is, most of these opponents are not nearly as talented as UNC and these should be easier wins than they are.

    Even with Lawson, UNC played 3 games to a one possession finish in the ACC - only one of which (Clemson) is really justifiable. I like the 2005-06 Duke comparison (especially because that Duke team was inconsistent on defense as this UNC team is) but I also like the Wake 2004-05 comparison: excellent on offense, lackluster on defense. That Wake team got a #2 seed and bowed out in the 2nd round.

    I agree with Mepanchin and Throaty, the 2006 Duke team is a great example. That year JJ and Sheldon were playing almost every minute of every game Duke was highly ranked all year long. But to be as highly ranked as they were they weren't blowing anyone out and most games weren't decided at least until about 4 minutes to go in a game. By the time Coach K was sure the game was in hand enough to sub JJ or Sheldon, except for keeping them from getting hurt there wasn't much reason. They had played the whole game by that point. I'm not faulting Coach K, and both guys were in prime physical condition. But Duke rode their two thourobreds into the ground that year and when they got into the NCAA's the horse was ready for the glue factory.

    That's not to say blowing teams out every game is good either. Duke's 1999 team and UNLV in 1992 kicked but the whole season and were fresh for the tournament. But besides the fact Lawson has been out, UNC has had quite a few close ACC games. (Much more than I would have guessed at seasons start.) I like it because it suggests they might not be quite as good on paper as predicted by the experts. And if nothing else it may mean they are getting every teams best shot the way Duke has for years now. I honestly think after their 8-20 season some schools were more sympathetic to UNC and didn't play them as tough as they would Duke.

    By the way, and this has probably been brought up on another thread. But the way Hansblubblub plays position defense (thought he did an excellent job of moving his feet however) and does little to alter or block a players shot over him was something I'd never noticed until the Duke game. Thomas did a good job on several opportunities and made baskets over Tyler. Granted not every inside player is a defensive and offensive force like Sheldon Williams. But his lack of doing anything but hold his ground amazed me and makes me wonder if it's something teams can't exploit the rest of the year. It's almost like he has been told he's too valuable on offense to pick up fouls on defense. That may be true and we know he isn't going to pick up and charge calls or walks for that matter. But unless there was a double team I think Thomas could have scored quie a few more baskets that night and it lets me see yet another reason he isn't an NBA hot prospect.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    While I believe not having Lawson and Frasor hurts this team (hard to argue otherwise), I don't believe it is as big a problem for UNC as their defense. This team is not defending at a high level right now and I don't think having Ty Lawson would make any difference. UNC beat Clemson because, just in the nick of time, they made a commitment to the defensive side of the ball, plain and simple.

    UNC fans can whine about Lawson not being there but they almost lost to Clemson with Lawson and they almost lost the Clemson without Lawson, both games extending beyond regulation. That tells me Lawson's absence is not the root of the problem for this team.

  17. #17

    D

    Quote Originally Posted by Classof06 View Post
    While I believe not having Lawson and Frasor hurts this team (hard to argue otherwise), I don't believe it is as big a problem for UNC as their defense. This team is not defending at a high level right now and I don't think having Ty Lawson would make any difference. UNC beat Clemson because, just in the nick of time, they made a commitment to the defensive side of the ball, plain and simple.

    UNC fans can whine about Lawson not being there but they almost lost to Clemson with Lawson and they almost lost the Clemson without Lawson, both games extending beyond regulation. That tells me Lawson's absence is not the root of the problem for this team.
    Right as rain. I think their D hurt them against Georgetown last year in the NCAA's and I think ithas hurt them in the close games this year. And since we can't blame Lawson for lack of D, I see nobody else to blame but Roy Williams. Even if he is preaching D, it's not getting through to the players apparently. Last time I saw the coaches messages not getting through to the players Matt Doherty was at the helm and we know what happened with that. Okay, someone start a "Fire Roy Williams" thread! Do it over at IC and used clear DBR rational and see if we can get the ball rolling!

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Classof06 View Post
    UNC fans can whine about Lawson not being there but they almost lost to Clemson with Lawson and they almost lost the Clemson without Lawson, both games extending beyond regulation. That tells me Lawson's absence is not the root of the problem for this team.
    UNC is #1 in offense in the conference but 11th in defense.

    (Duke is 2nd in offense and 4th in defense).

    http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb.../confldrs.html

  19. #19
    The should have 3 losses, Lawson travelled before he made that pass to Ellington for the last second heave. Of course it didn't get called, much like QT laying on the baseline and pushing the ball back in bounds with the ref staring right at him.

    Oh well, that is Clemson's problem, DUKE smoked them on their home court.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by strawman View Post
    The should have 3 losses, Lawson travelled before he made that pass to Ellington for the last second heave. Of course it didn't get called, much like QT laying on the baseline and pushing the ball back in bounds with the ref staring right at him.

    Oh well, that is Clemson's problem, DUKE smoked them on their home court.
    preach

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