So I'm having a really hard time picking a national champion. The reason? You have to go all the way back to 1998 to find a coach that won the national championship on his first trip to the Final Four. It's really really hard to do.

So, that leaves us with the following teams that, according to that logic, have a shot at winning the whole thing:

Florida - too arrogant...this year's UConn 06
Arizona - They don't play defense
Maryland - Could happen, but very very unlikely
Georgia Tech - Nope
Wisconsin - Injuries and an overall aversion keep me from picking them
Kentucky - Uh...no
Illinois - They shouldn't even be in
Duke - They'll make a run, but FF is still not likely
Indiana - Who knows? But still not willing to bank on it
UCLA - My gut tells me not to pick them.
UNC - Duh again
Michigan State - They're weak.
Marquette - I don't really know much about them other than they beat us.
Texas - Great lineup, but I doubt it.
Texas Tech - They'll upset some people, but not enough to get very that far
Louisville - Same as above.


Problem is, my Final Four is: Oregon, Kansas, G-Town and Texas A&M. None of which are coached by guys who have been to the Final Four.

Should I go with my gut or go with the stats and change my FF?