Bilas's Questionable Theory on Memphis FTs

[calltheobvious]

From the 7pm ET Gameday:

Rece, Hubert, Digger and Jay are talking about Memphis's poor free throw shooting overall and today against UTEP (21-41). Hubert makes the argument that he can't see anyone winning 6 straight games with no reliable perimeter game and horrible team free throw shooting. Bilas counters with a kind of regression-to-the-mean argument, or so it seemed at first. He said that one sign of a championship team is that you find a way to win even missing 20 FTs and going 1-17 from 3.

Bilas: ...and part of me is asking, if you can't get 'em in a game like this, when are you gonna get 'em?

Nothing to see here, yet. Then this line of argument:

Bilas: Now, the really good teams--if (the Tigers) miss twenty free throws--are going to get them. I don't think they're going to miss twenty free throws against the best teams. They were playing UTEP, they knew they could get away with it, and they did, but I don't think you'll see them do that against the better teams.

Jay has clearly been sitting next to Digger far too long (we'll know that Jay's in the final stages of Diggerenza when his words become so unintelligible that his ideas can no longer be critiqued). It's unclear whether this was just a case of Jay trying to fill out a paragraph with fluff or actually believing this stuff.

If the latter, it's a tough case to make. The assumption is that the greater the focus/intensity, the better the free throw shooting. If this is true, then we should see Memphis's percentage differ significantly depending on the quality of competition. Further, it should be the case that if they go into half-time believing they're in a competitive game, their shooting should improve in the second half. The statistics simply do not bear this out.

Memphis did have a woeful first half, going 2-9 from the line. But in the second half, the Tigers went only 13 for their first 25. They did manage to go 5-6 once UTEP began fouling intentionally in the last minute of the game.
Consider that they needed that nice stretch run just to put themselves over 50% in a high-volume game.

How have they done against the best of the rest of their schedule?


at OU 11-23 47.8%
at Gonzaga 19-32 59.4%
vs. Georgetown 22-29 75.8%
at UConn 14-21 66.7%
USC (at MSG) 7-18 38.9%
at Houston 21-35 60.0%

--------------------------------------
Sub-totals (w/UTEP) 115-191 60.2%
--------------------------------------
vs. The Rest 175-303 57.8%
--------------------------------------
Season 290-494 58.7%

With the exception of Georgetown (and that one game does not a trend make), the numbers don't back Jay up. Clearly there's not a statistically significant difference between Memphis's performance in games against better and worse competition. If Bill Parcells looked at these numbers, he'd tell Jay that "(Memphis) are who they are, a terrible team from the stripe." KenPom wrote recently that fouling is definitely the optimum strategy against Memphis if you're a bad team http://basketballprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=109. I'm going to take it a step further and argue that it's the optimal strategy for mediocre teams, and selectively, for the best teams (Dorsey's FG% = 64, FT% = 35, for example). I can't wait to watch Memphis's first-round game in March against some Rider-type that packs in a 2-3 and commits 35 fouls. But I digress...

Why do commentators--even the bright ones--persist in propagating "clutchness" as a real phenomenon? Jay, you're too good for this. Please cease and desist.

[pete]

I saw the Memphis/Utep Game and I almost got sick to my stomach. For one Memphis cannot play defense and are a bunchof individuals who have no idea
of playing as team. I mean do they even run set plays in that offense, set screens, or do they just jack up threes throw ally oops to each other. What a bunch of street slop pick up b-ball junk. Of course they can do that with the mediocre schedule that they play minus Tennessee who ain't bad but if they come up against a team that plays defense their done. My prediction is they will make the sweet sixteen at best. I saw theme play Houston as well and their play reminds me of watching the NBA-All Star Game with the dunks and threes every man for himself style of unorganized ball. Although an ally oop does take a littile teamwork I guess. Does anyone out there see the same thing? Is Memphis for real or not? Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see them being on the same level as a Kansas, UCLA, ETC.

[pete]

Please forgive the poor spelling I'm in a hurry.

[HumboldtDevil]

Pete, I agree that they do tend to play a lot of one-on-one offense that looks ugly as hell, but their schedule isn't mediocre. It's not like they're College of Charleston from '99 or something like that. Look at the original post here that points out that Memphis has played Oklahoma, UConn, Gonzaga, USC and Georgetown. They might not always play pretty, but they have beaten a bunch of good teams.

[pete]

Humboldtdevil, Good counterpoint I guess there non-league schedule was pretty competive. I would just love to see them get ousted early I don't think their style of ball can get them deep into the tourney.

[Bryan]

From the 7pm ET Gameday:


How have they done against the best of the rest of their schedule?


at OU 11-23 47.8%
at Gonzaga 19-32 59.4%
vs. Georgetown 22-29 75.8%
at UConn 14-21 66.7%
USC (at MSG) 7-18 38.9%
at Houston 21-35 60.0%

--------------------------------------
Sub-totals (w/UTEP) 115-191 60.2%
--------------------------------------
vs. The Rest 175-303 57.8%
--------------------------------------
Season 290-494 58.7%

With the warm-up to the Duke-UNC game being played today maybe it's time to bring out the beer ads. "They are who we thought they were." While Memphis is obviously very good, they are unlikely to take their FT shooting deficiency seriously unless they lose a game because of it. Even then, they're not TRYING to miss, they're just not very good (or at least several of their main players are not very good), at shooting FT's. The ACC is not as deep as normal this year. Still, Duke's schedule will give them a big edge if they play Memphis deep in the tournament sthis yar.

[Memphis Devil]

I saw the Memphis/Utep Game and I almost got sick to my stomach. For one Memphis cannot play defense and are a bunchof individuals who have no idea
of playing as team. I mean do they even run set plays in that offense, set screens, or do they just jack up threes throw ally oops to each other. What a bunch of street slop pick up b-ball junk. Of course they can do that with the mediocre schedule that they play minus Tennessee who ain't bad but if they come up against a team that plays defense their done. My prediction is they will make the sweet sixteen at best. I saw theme play Houston as well and their play reminds me of watching the NBA-All Star Game with the dunks and threes every man for himself style of unorganized ball. Although an ally oop does take a littile teamwork I guess. Does anyone out there see the same thing? Is Memphis for real or not? Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see them being on the same level as a Kansas, UCLA, ETC.

I certainly am no Memphis apologist, but living in the Memphis area and working closely with a stout group of Tiger fans, they certainly are for real. I have watched this team for the last three years and my criticisms always remain: lack of team play, ability to disappear defensively, weak scheduling.

Having said that, this years version of the Tigers is certainly their best to date. They do play better team ball and have also played a much tougher non-conference schedule. While they still tend to disappear defensively, they are athletic enough and deep enough to overcome. Of course this is being done in C-USA.

While they are skilled and deep enough to overcome their deficiencies in their conference games, they have certainly proved to be an Achilles heel for them in the Tourney. You just can't shoot 6% from 3 and 51% from the line and expect to win an Elite 8 game (see Memphis v. UCLA 2006).


CJ