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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    Charting Duke vs. Maryland

    Thanks to Georgia Tech, Virginia and the good folks at FSN, my I missed the first few minutes of charting. Thankfully, the gamebook shows all subs, so all is well. The numbers are here. And they're interesting.

    Again, I'll start with the usual caveat that single-game plus/minus stats can be very misleading. That said, here's some stuff that backed up what seemed obvious while watching the game:
    -Kyle Singler didn't seem to be on his game tonight, and he was a -1. I'm sure that I don't need to go back to the archives to conclude that other than Pitt (when he was -6), that was his only negative finish of the year.
    -Jon Scheyer entered the game as Duke's plus/minus leader. He seemed to struggle and he was +3.
    -DeMarcus Nelson played 38 minutes, so it's pretty obvious that his numbers would mesh with Duke's overall total. In fact, there were a grand total of four points scored with Marie out of the game -- two for Duke, two for Maryland.

    But there was some counterintuitive stuff as well:
    -Dave McClure didn't seem to do much tonight. But in only eight minutes, he was +8. That might be a case of being in the game at the right time for a run. But it's interesting.
    -Here's the biggie, and I think it's really instructive for a certain debate raging in another thread. Nolan Smith was fabulous tonight. People are wondering about Paulus. And yet, Paulus was a +10 tonight. In other words, Duke was outscored by a point when he was out of the game. Smith, but contrast, was a +3 (Duke outscored Maryland 6-3 when they were in together, and Scheyer was technically the PG during an offense/defense sub in the final minute when Maryland scored a point).

    Those are some juicy numbers to ponder. Here are more:

    Individuals
    Greg Paulus 53-43 (+10)
    DeMarcus Nelson 91-82 (+9)
    David McClure 20-12 (+8)
    Gerald Henderson 81-74 (+7)
    Lance Thomas 41-34 (+7)
    Jon Scheyer 60-57 (+3)
    Nolan Smith 46-43 (+3)
    Kyle Singler 67-68 (-1)
    Taylor King 6-7 (-1)

    Per 40 Minutes
    David McClure +40
    Greg Paulus +21.1
    Lance Thomas +15.6
    DeMarcus Nelson +9.5
    Gerald Henderson +8.5
    Nolan Smith +6
    Jon Scheyer +4.3
    Kyle Singler -1.3
    Taylor King -8

    Lineups
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas (x2) 14-8 (+6)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 6-1 (+5)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas (x2) 4-0 (+4)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x4) 23-21 (+2)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-Singler 5-3 (+2)
    Paulus-Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler 3-1 (+2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-King 2-0 (+2)
    Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson (x2) 3-2 (+1)
    Smith-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-Singler 2-2 (0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-McClure-Singler 2-2 (0)
    Smith-Nelson-Henderson-McClure-King 0-0 (0)
    Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 0-0 (0)
    Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 0-1 (-1)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Singler 4-5 (-1)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-McClure 3-4 (-1)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-King-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x4) 16-19 (-3)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler (x3) 6-11 (-5)

  2. #2

    Well then!!

    Why are we playing Smith at all!!
    Paulus should be playing 40 minutes a game!
    And anyone who thinks Smith should play any minutes clearly doesn't have the best interests of the team in mind...

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowfax336 View Post
    Why are we playing Smith at all!!
    Paulus should be playing 40 minutes a game!
    And anyone who thinks Smith should play any minutes clearly doesn't have the best interests of the team in mind...
    LOL.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh

    +/-

    Yea, GP really sucked tonight and deserves to lose his starter role(insert internet sarcasm alert here and see other thread). Good stuff once again, Jumbo. What great progress by NS and how nice it is to have a healthy GP this year.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    i'll point out that the numbers are skewed slightly by the last minute of the game when we were up, they were fouling, we were making our fts and they were missing their shots. part of the problem with +/- stat tracking is that not all points are the same.

  6. #6
    I'm watching the FSN replay of the game right now (because my TV provider was on the fritz during the live game), and I can say that Greg played really well in the first 8 minutes of the game. The part of the game that EVERYONE missed.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    i'll point out that the numbers are skewed slightly by the last minute of the game when we were up, they were fouling, we were making our fts and they were missing their shots. part of the problem with +/- stat tracking is that not all points are the same.
    Well, yeah. That's why I included my caveat. We were up 4 when they started fouling -- Lance hit those two FTs. Here's how my log looked during that sequence:
    86-82
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas
    87-82
    88-82
    Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson
    89-82
    89-83
    89-84
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas
    90-84
    91-84
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas
    Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson
    92-84
    93-84
    FINAL

    So, once the fouling started, if we're doing the Smith/Paulus thing, it looks like Paulus was +5 and Smith was +1.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I'm watching the FSN replay of the game right now (because my TV provider was on the fritz during the live game), and I can say that Greg played really well in the first 8 minutes of the game. The part of the game that EVERYONE missed.
    I'd love to know if I have my lineups right for those eight minutes. I've already caught one mistake in the final 20 seconds in the official gamebook. (They have Paulus coming out of the game, then somehow hitting 2 FTs...)

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    If you don't have the first eight minutes these numbers are meaningless. So I ask why bother.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    If you don't have the first eight minutes these numbers are meaningless. So I ask why bother.
    Read. I posted everything in English:

    Thanks to Georgia Tech, Virginia and the good folks at FSN, my I missed the first few minutes of charting. Thankfully, the gamebook shows all subs, so all is well. The numbers are here. And they're interesting.

    I got the subs from the gamebook. So all the numbers are valid. Thanks for the contribution, though.

  11. #11
    Why isn't K playing David McClure at all 5 positions for 40 minutes a game; I'm incensed.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    I'd love to know if I have my lineups right for those eight minutes. I've already caught one mistake in the final 20 seconds in the official gamebook. (They have Paulus coming out of the game, then somehow hitting 2 FTs...)
    Here's what I have:
    20:00 - starting lineup = -5 (MD 13, Duke 8 when they sub)
    16:16 - JS in for GH, DM in for LT = +5 (MD 14, Duke 14)
    14:42 - NS in for GP = 0 (MD 16, Duke 16)
    13:22 - TK in for KS, GH in for DN = +2 (Duke 18, MD 16)
    12:54 - LT in for DM = -2 (MD 18, Duke 18)
    11:22 - starting lineup

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Here's what I have:
    20:00 - starting lineup = -5 (MD 13, Duke 8 when they sub)
    16:16 - JS in for GH, DM in for LT = +5 (MD 14, Duke 14)
    14:42 - NS in for GP = 0 (MD 16, Duke 16)
    13:22 - TK in for KS, GH in for DN = +2 (Duke 18, MD 16)
    12:54 - LT in for DM = -2 (MD 18, Duke 18)
    11:22 - starting lineup
    The gamebook had the same thing, so we're all set. Thanks for the help, TM.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Call Mr. Hollinger, tell him to drop his PER rating and just keep +/- 's instead.

    I hope you realize that this rating system is SEVERELY flawed when McClure has an 8 point lead on Singler.

  15. #15
    Sounds like most of it is captured in the conversation.

    - McClure's plus/minus is almost certainly a function of being on the floor at the right time, as he did next to nothing in the game and played very few minutes.
    - Paulus benefits slightly from being on the floor at the end when they're fouling. And apparently he had a good first few minutes. He was also on the floor early in the second half when Nelson starting going nutty and Duke made up a large portion of the deficit. So again, plus/minus for a single game can be misleading (as you said).

    In this case, it appears that the plus/minus for Paulus is buoyed by both good play and good timing. The stat line should make it obvious that both Smith and Paulus had solid games. Look at the points-per-shot, Smith's rebounds, and Paulus' steals. I'd say they were both really effective, and that in this case the plus/minus is very misleading to suggest that Paulus was substantively more effective than Smith. So I don't think that the plus/minus stat last night is particularly instructive in the Paulus/Smith debate. Fruit for discussion? Certainly (which is why we're discussing). Instructive? Probably not so much.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Surfside Beach, SC
    "Why are we playing Smith at all!!
    Paulus should be playing 40 minutes a game!
    And anyone who thinks Smith should play any minutes clearly doesn't have the best interests of the team in mind..."


    What! I hope you are kidding. The more minutes Smith can get the better. He's our best chance aginst Lawson. I love Paulus, but Smith needs to be on the floor as much as possible.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Correct me if I 'm wrong (Jumbo - you are the one who would know on this) but I thought that the +/- could give us some insight into players that 'make the team better' in otherwise intangible ways. People are dismissing Greg's performance as being in for free throws at the end, or Dave's for being luck in his timing.
    However, another way to look at this that Greg didn't turn over in the final free throw-intensive period, and provided a sound outlet to his teammates. Dave provided a presence that could pull the defense out and screen, and also played sound defense - isn't the point of the +/- to overcome the fixation on individual performance and allow us to see things we don't pay attention to as much?

    Exiled

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by jzp5079 View Post
    Call Mr. Hollinger, tell him to drop his PER rating and just keep +/- 's instead.

    I hope you realize that this rating system is SEVERELY flawed when McClure has an 8 point lead on Singler.
    Um, yeah. Like, maybe when I wrote, "Again, I'll start with the usual caveat that single-game plus/minus stats can be very misleading."

    Or how how about when I wrote "But there was some counterintuitive stuff as well:
    -Dave McClure didn't seem to do much tonight. But in only eight minutes, he was +8. That might be a case of being in the game at the right time for a run. But it's interesting."

    BTW, Hollinger uses plus/minus. So do the more advanced NBA sites, like 82games.com. And every team uses it as one of many, many statistical measures for evaluating players.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Exiled_Devil View Post
    Correct me if I 'm wrong (Jumbo - you are the one who would know on this) but I thought that the +/- could give us some insight into players that 'make the team better' in otherwise intangible ways. People are dismissing Greg's performance as being in for free throws at the end, or Dave's for being luck in his timing.
    However, another way to look at this that Greg didn't turn over in the final free throw-intensive period, and provided a sound outlet to his teammates. Dave provided a presence that could pull the defense out and screen, and also played sound defense - isn't the point of the +/- to overcome the fixation on individual performance and allow us to see things we don't pay attention to as much?

    Exiled
    I'd say the best way to describe plus/minus in a single-game setting is "a piece of the puzzle." You're right -- it should give us a window into intangible contributions. At the same time, it is flawed in some ways. Five guys' plus/minus increased by two points when Nelson stole the inbounds pass early in the second half and scored. That was a solo effort. Everyone's plus/minus benefits when Maryland misses the front end of a one-and-one. And so forth.

    You're right to assert that if Duke outscored Maryland by eight with McClure in the game, he couldn't have been hurting the team that much, and very well might have been doing some subtle things to help the other guys. But plus/minus (unless there are glaring one-game blips) is meant to be more of a long-term stat. That said, I still enjoy seeing the numbers each game and, in some cases, I do think they mirror players' contributions. Lance Thomas is the best example I can think of -- his plus/minus has been excellent in each of the last three games, and we can all agree that they've probably been his best three games of the season.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Surfsideron View Post
    "Why are we playing Smith at all!!
    Paulus should be playing 40 minutes a game!
    And anyone who thinks Smith should play any minutes clearly doesn't have the best interests of the team in mind..."


    What! I hope you are kidding. The more minutes Smith can get the better. He's our best chance aginst Lawson. I love Paulus, but Smith needs to be on the floor as much as possible.
    The poster was kidding/making fun of the whole Paulus/Smith debate.

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