Miami- North Carolina

[cameroncrazed23]

Who do you think is coming out with the win tonight? i know who i am rooting for.

[BlueDevilJay]

In my wildest dreams, the U would pull the upset tonight but I just don't see it happening, back to back losses. Of course, their soft OOC sched could continue to haunt them and work in Miami's favor. I'll be watching for sure. Go Canes!!

[sandinmyshoes]

Isn't UNC's schedule rated as tougher than ours?

This is a road game in the ACC, so who knows, but like the others two UNC losses in a row seems unlikely. Since Williams has been there, they seem to typically come off of a loss with renewed vigor before gradually sliding back into a kind of neutral emotional state.

[BlueDevilJay]

Im not sure what the ratings are on the schedule, but I looked at ours vs theirs and we have played several ranked teams OOC, with UNC's only games vs ranked opposition coming in ACC play. Depending on what Miami and Clempsun do the rest of the season, UNC could finish the season having only played THREE games vs top 25 ranked teams. (1 vs Clemson, 2 vs Duke). Is that not plain crazy to anyone but me?

[gw67]

According to RPI and Sagarin, the Heels' strength of schedule (SOS) is higher than Duke's. In fact, the Devils' SOS in the RPI is the 6th strongest in the ACC behind Georgia Tech, UNC, Clemson, Florida State and Maryland.

gw67

[pfrduke]

According to RPI and Sagarin, the Heels' strength of schedule (SOS) is higher than Duke's. In fact, the Devils' SOS in the RPI is the 6th strongest in the ACC behind Georgia Tech, UNC, Clemson, Florida State and Maryland.

gw67

According to Pomeroy, on the other hand, Duke's is 19th and UNC's is 34th. In non-con only, Duke's is 48th and UNC's is 89th. Duke ranks 3rd overall in the ACC, and 2nd in the ACC on the basis of non-con only. Duke got negative pub for not playing tough opponents, but Wisconsin, Pitt, and Marquette have all been better than projected. By contrast, UNC's marquee opponents (OSU, Kentucky) are worse than projected. Goes to show you can't really judge strength of schedule until after all the games have been played.

[gw67]

pfr - To each his own. I really enjoy looking at Pomeroy's stats which are based on how well teams play (The Terps are the 45th best team?). But, as we both know, the selection committee looks at RPI. I threw Sagarin in the mix because I see it as a slightly enhanced RPI. IMO, you are kidding yourself if you think that UNC has played a weak schedule and Duke a difficult one.

gw67

[sandinmyshoes]

Just to be clear, I'm not denigrating our schedule, which I think was pretty decent. But I think true road games for UNC is probably what gives them the edge over Duke. In just a team by team comparison I too think Duke's OOC schedule was somewhat tougher than UNC's. Although I think it is delusional to consider UNC as having played an "easy" schedule.

I also have to give UNC some credit for a very long series of games on the road. What was it, like seven or eight in a row on the road?

But, I don't want to derail this into a strength of schedule argument. I see UNC as probably winning this game and looking strong for at least a couple of more. Then we'll see if that disinterest creeps back into their game the way it often seems to do.

[Classof06]

Well put by sandinmyshoes. I think Duke's played better teams but UNC has played more true road games. I don't think UNC's schedule has been as hard as Duke's and it's illustrated by the fact that 3 of UNC's first 4 ACC games have been down-to-the-wire nailbiters. Duke's wins haven't been cakewalks but none has gone down to the last possession.

Miami's arena is going to be sold out tonight and the Canes seem to have a pretty big buzz here locally, so it'll be a pretty hostile environment for the 'Holes tonight. I still expect them to pull it out.

[Indoor66]

Well put by sandinmyshoes. I think Duke's played better teams but UNC has played more true road games. I don't think UNC's schedule has been as hard as Duke's and it's illustrated by the fact that 3 of UNC's first 4 ACC games have been down-to-the-wire nailbiters. Duke's wins haven't been cakewalks but none has gone down to the last possession.

Miami's arena is going to be sold out tonight and the Canes seem to have a pretty big buzz here locally, so it'll be a pretty hostile environment for the 'Holes tonight. I still expect them to pull it out.

I'll be watching the game on the Sun Channel at 9:00.

[juise]

What was it, like seven or eight in a row on the road?

UNC played 2 neutral court games (Old Dominion, BYU), followed by 4 away games (Ohio State, Kentucky, Penn, Rutgers). That's 4 times as many non-conference road games as Duke has played. But... how many of those games were against ranked opponents? (Answer: None.) Personally, I think that Duke's neutral court games against Marquette and Pitt were more valuable.

[sandinmyshoes]

UNC played 2 neutral court games (Old Dominion, BYU), followed by 4 away games (Ohio State, Kentucky, Penn, Rutgers). That's 4 times as many non-conference road games as Duke has played. But... how many of those games were against ranked opponents? (Answer: None.) Personally, I think that Duke's neutral court games against Marquette and Pitt were more valuable.

I think you could have a point, although it's worth noting that UNC's game against BYU, while on a neutral court was in BYU's time zone and something like three time zones from UNC's homecourt?

My point being that there's often more to what we might consider real strength of schedule than can be figured out by looking at names on a schedule or even road/home games.

For instance, it sometimes matter "when" you play a team. Never minding injuries, where they just not playing that well? Let's take UNC's loss to Maryland, what if the Terps go on a roll? All of a sudden that's a game against a tough team instead of struggling team. Maybe that's when Maryland woke up?

As stated by another poster, that's why SOS is more reliably looked at after the season rather than in the season, or heaven forbid before the games are played.

And, ultimately, we play UNC twice. That's what this is all about, isn't it? To make us feel better about our chances when we play them? Right now everyone is confident, but another loss by the Devils and panic will set in.

[JStuart]

And one of UNC's away games was Davidson in Charlotte...in the Coliseum, where the entire town of Davidson -faculty, stdents, and employees- could fit into, oh, 2-3 sections. The remaining seats were filled with those of the light blue persuasion. Some road game.

[gw67]

The game is at Miami and their squad is intact. Further, they have some big kids in the frontcourt who should make life interesting for Hansbrough. Nevertheless, I see the Heels pulling out a road victory.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

And one of UNC's away games was Davidson in Charlotte...in the Coliseum, where the entire town of Davidson -faculty, stdents, and employees- could fit into, oh, 2-3 sections. The remaining seats were filled with those of the light blue persuasion. Some road game.

We can argue about the relative merits of the two road schedules, but for the record, the NCAA counts both the Duke-Davidson and UNC-Davidson games as home games for Davidson and road games for Duke and UNC. Jerry Palm, who runs an RPI site, documented his discussion with the NCAA about the two games and after some confusion, the NCAA made a firm ruling -- both home games for Davidson.

The Duke-Temple game is also "officially" a road game for Duke under NCAA rules, even though it was played in the Wachovia Center and not in the Owls on-campus arena. On the other hand, Pitt in New York and the three games in Maui are true neutral court games.

So for the record, Duke has officially played three road games (at Davidson, at Temple and at FSU), four neutral court games and nine home games going into back-to-back road games Thursday and Sunday at Virginia Tech and Maryland.

[dukestheheat]

the holes by about 20 points i do believe it.

dth.

[pfrduke]

pfr - To each his own. I really enjoy looking at Pomeroy's stats which are based on how well teams play (The Terps are the 45th best team?). But, as we both know, the selection committee looks at RPI. I threw Sagarin in the mix because I see it as a slightly enhanced RPI. IMO, you are kidding yourself if you think that UNC has played a weak schedule and Duke a difficult one.

gw67

I'm pretty sure his SOS doesn't take home/road/neutral into account, only who you play. And I never said I thought UNC played a weak schedule, only that Pomeroy rated it as lighter than Duke's. 34th means its in the top 10% of tough schedules, and that's with just 1 game against a ranked opponent (AP, Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc.).

That being said, I don't think the Heels played a tougher schedule than Duke. Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Wisconsin are better than any non-conference opponent UNC played. The Davidson games are a wash. The road games against Penn and Rutgers can only count for so much, because Penn and Rutgers are awful - Duke's Temple road game is better than either of those. UNC gets credit for going to Rupp and Columbus - those two games are better than any on Duke's schedule outside of the three above. And it played more quality mid-majors - the collection of Nevada, Kent St, UCSB, Asheville, BYU, and Valparaiso is better than Cornell, Albany, Eastern Kentucky, New Mexico State, and Princeton.

Duke's schedule is top-heavy, while UNC's is middle heavy. Duke played more "loseable" games in the non-conference schedule than UNC did, even if UNC's schedule seems to have more "solid" teams on it all-around.

Put another way, Duke had 3 games that were probably somewhere between 50/50 and 60/40 odds, plus Davidson at maybe 70/30 and Illinois at around 80/20. It then had 9 other games where the odds of winning were close to 100% (if you wanted to be generous, you could put Temple at between 90/10 and 95/5). UNC had 4 60/40 to 70/30 games (Kentucky, OSU, Davidson, and BYU), maybe 6 games where the odds of winning were somewhere between 90/10 and 95/5 (ODU, Kent St., Asheville, Valparaiso, UCSB, Nevada), and another 5 at close to 100% (Penn, Rutgers, Iona, SC St, Nicholls St). UNC's schedule might look better on paper because it has fewer of the 100% games, but Duke's is a little bit of a better test because it puts the team against better opponents at the top end. Again, not saying UNC's is weak - just not actually as strong as Duke's. But apparently I'm kidding myself...

[jjasper0729]

doesn't matter to me right now.. the REAL question is: do they have the hot tub ready?

[sandinmyshoes]

That "awful" Rutgers team just knocked off Nova by 12.

[Lavabe]

Miami trails by 7 at the half.

BEAT THOSE HOLES!!
Cheers,
Lavabe