Where Does Duke Stand?

[The1Bluedevil]

Don't know how many people heard Brando last night say he thought Duke was at the head of the 2nd tier teams. Personally I don't think they match up well with a big team such as G-Town and A@M. Tennessee is very similar to Duke but more athletic. I think we match up well with Wash State and Mich State.

Any thoughts?

[SMO]

Don't know how many people heard Brando last night say he thought Duke was at the head of the 2nd tier teams. Personally I don't think they match up well with a big team such as G-Town and A@M. Tennessee is very similar to Duke but more athletic. I think we match up well with Wash State and Mich State.

Any thoughts?

It really depends what he means by 2nd tier. When I hear 2nd tier I think good teams outside the top 25. I would say we're appropriately ranked right now in the 6-9 range in most polls.

[Classof06]

Don't know how many people heard Brando last night say he thought Duke was at the head of the 2nd tier teams. Personally I don't think they match up well with a big team such as G-Town and A@M. Tennessee is very similar to Duke but more athletic. I think we match up well with Wash State and Mich State.

Any thoughts?

I think the Spartans would give Duke trouble. Between Raymar Morgan, Goran Suton, Marquis Gray and Naymick, they have four frontcourt players that can do damage as 3 of the 4 are bigger than anyone on our team except Zoubek. And their guards ain't too shabby either. We can certainly beat them, but like Duke with almost any team in America, we'd have to shoot the ball well to win. That's what we're up against this year.

I don't know what people mean by "2nd tier team", and I think if you asked 5 people what they meant by that term, you'd get 5 different answers. I think we're a 2 or 3 seed-caliber team and I think we're on the list of about 8-10 teams that are capable of winning the national title. Obviously some teams on that list have better chances than others and right now I'd put Duke toward the bottom of that list. But they're definitely one of the better 10 teams in America.

[Olympic Fan]

Don't know how many people heard Brando last night say he thought Duke was at the head of the 2nd tier teams. Personally I don't think they match up well with a big team such as G-Town and A@M. Tennessee is very similar to Duke but more athletic. I think we match up well with Wash State and Mich State.

Any thoughts?

Funny that you think Duke doesn't match up to Georgetown. A much inferior Duke team beat a superior Georgetown team a year ago (even if it was in Cameron). I've seen Georgetown three times this year and I think Duke -- trading McRoberts for Singler, King, Smith, a healthy Paulus and a much-improved Henderson -- has made much more progress in the last year than a Georgetown team that has traded Jeff Green for Austin Freeman and Chris Wright.

Yeah, they're big up front -- but they are also vulnerable to pressure.

Right now, the number ones are pretty set (barring injuries or some kind of major disaster) -- UNC, Kansas, Memphis and UCLA. Obviously, there's a long time to go, but I can't remember a time when four teams seemed such clearcut favorites.

Duke is very much in competition for a No. 2 seed ... along with Georgetown and Washington State. I would have added Michigan State to that list, but I'm a little shaken by their horrible performance at Iowa.

Right now, I think Indiana might be the fourth No. 2 seed ... but the No. 2s seem much more in flux to me than the No. 1 seeds.

[yancem]

It really depends what he means by 2nd tier. When I hear 2nd tier I think good teams outside the top 25. I would say we're appropriately ranked right now in the 6-9 range in most polls.

When the announcer was making his statement about Duke leading the second tier, he was talking about the group just behind the front runners (UNC, Memphis, Kansas and UCLA). Not how I would characterize 2nd tier but if you go by that definition I think that Duke fits in that tier. Just not sure if they lead it or simply are in it.

[JasonEvans]

Texas A&M?? Wake me when they play a game on the road.

Oh wait-- they did play one road game... and they lost.

Sagarin rates their schedule #304 in the land. They are nothing special.

--Jason "Tenn and Wash State are for real though-- those 2 along with Duke and Georgetown are the #2 seeds right now" Evans

[Wander]

Off the top of my head, I see the 2nd tier in no particular order as:

Butler, Duke, Michigan State, Dayton, Georgetown, Xavier, Indiana, Washington State, Marquette

I don't know where we lie in that group, but I feel pretty comfortable saying that we are in the 2nd tier, not the 1st or 3rd, i.e. a Sweet 16 level team capable of being a Final Four threat.

[The1Bluedevil]

Really tough to judge where Duke ranks right now. A road victory @ FSU and a home win vs Clemson would change my thinking drastically.

[jimsumner]

All those skilled bigs and talented wings really helped Michigan State against Iowa.

[Highlander]

--Jason "Tenn and Wash State are for real though-- those 2 along with Duke and Georgetown are the #2 seeds right now" Evans

Interesting. I hadn't given Wash State a whole lot of thought. When last I looked at them, they were one of the "how is this team ranked ahead of us" clubs I saw. Granted that was in December. Since then they've played two ranked teams and gone 1-1. Their SOS is the worst in the Sagarin top 10 (although they are in the Sagarin top 10). They look a little offensively challenged, rarely getting out of the 70s in points. That's not a recipe for success when conf play starts and scoring averages drop.

Admittedly, I have never seen them play and know nothing about them other than stats. That being said, what I see doesn't scare me. Should it?

[Classof06]

Really tough to judge where Duke ranks right now. A road victory @ FSU and a home win vs Clemson would change my thinking drastically.

Co-sign this. We win these next two (which will be harder than you think), that will alter the way I feel about our team. With that 17-day break, this is almost like a new season for Duke. And last night was their only impressive showing of the new season.

FWIW, on an ESPN chat today, Joe Lunardi said that while he personally isn't sure we're good enough to do it, that Duke is still very capable of capturing a #1 seed.

My guess is that we'd have to beat Carolina at least once, finish 1 (maybe 2) in the ACC regular season and then take the ACC tourney. Certainly not impossible for this year's Duke squad but obviously not easy. Time will tell...

[Ben63]

Funny that you think Duke doesn't match up to Georgetown. A much inferior Duke team beat a superior Georgetown team a year ago (even if it was in Cameron). I've seen Georgetown three times this year and I think Duke -- trading McRoberts for Singler, King, Smith, a healthy Paulus and a much-improved Henderson -- has made much more progress in the last year than a Georgetown team that has traded Jeff Green for Austin Freeman and Chris Wright.

Yeah, they're big up front -- but they are also vulnerable to pressure.

Remember what DaJaun Blair did to us. Hibbert is a better player and he is a senior. He would out rebound our whole team by himself.

[The1Bluedevil]

Texas A&M?? Wake me when they play a game on the road.

Oh wait-- they did play one road game... and they lost.

Sagarin rates their schedule #304 in the land. They are nothing special.

--Jason "Tenn and Wash State are for real though-- those 2 along with Duke and Georgetown are the #2 seeds right now" Evans

Who has Duke beat on the road?

[throatybeard]

Who has Duke beat on the road?

Silly wabbit--Duke doesn't play road games.

[Olympic Fan]

Remember what DaJaun Blair did to us. Hibbert is a better player and he is a senior. He would out rebound our whole team by himself.

Last year as a junior, Hibbert managed 11 points and six rebounds against Duke in 33 minutes. The year before, when Georgetown beat Duke in the MCI Center, Thompson benched Hibbert and he barely played.

Pardon me if the prospect of playing Hibbert doesn't fill me with dread. He's a nice big man, but I'd be more worried by Summers and Ewing. They are much more mobile (Summers is a lot closer to Blair than Hibbert is). And I'll take Duke's guards/wings over Wallace, Sapp, Freeman and company.

Look, I'm not dissing the Hoyas. They are a very good team. Maybe even a better team than Duke. But to suggest that Duke couldn't match up with them or even beat them ... jeez, sometimes I think I'm on the Carolina board.

[CDu]

I agree with whomever said we are a #2 or #3 seed, and I pretty much agree with whomever said we are a Sweet 16 team with a chance at the Final Four. I think we're one of the best 8-10 teams around. I think we're definitely not one of the top 4 teams though. I'd say UNC, Kansas, Memphis, and UCLA are the cream of the crop this year. They're beatable, but in a best-of-nine series, I'd take any of those four over any team not in that top four.

I think we'll end up a #2 seed, and I think we'll be an Elite-8/Sweet-16 level team. If we struggle in the second round, we could realistically lose in that round. Conversely, if we play/shoot really well in the second weekend, we could be a Final Four team. I think it would take a significant amount of good fortune for us to win the title this year. We can get away without size against lesser teams, but at the elite-8 level and beyond we'd be likely to face teams who are strong both in the frontcourt and backcourt. I think it will be very difficult for us to win 3 straight games against teams like that, and that's what separates the "first tier" (teams 1-4) from the "second tier" (teams 5-12ish).

[The1Bluedevil]

Last year as a junior, Hibbert managed 11 points and six rebounds against Duke in 33 minutes. The year before, when Georgetown beat Duke in the MCI Center, Thompson benched Hibbert and he barely played.

Pardon me if the prospect of playing Hibbert doesn't fill me with dread. He's a nice big man, but I'd be more worried by Summers and Ewing. They are much more mobile (Summers is a lot closer to Blair than Hibbert is). And I'll take Duke's guards/wings over Wallace, Sapp, Freeman and company.

Look, I'm not dissing the Hoyas. They are a very good team. Maybe even a better team than Duke. But to suggest that Duke couldn't match up with them or even beat them ... jeez, sometimes I think I'm on the Carolina board.

Over half of Summers shots are 3's so saying he is closer to Blair then Hibbert is a head scratcher. Have a hard time believing Duke would force G-Town to play at Duke's pace. Duke can beat G-town but looking at all the teams other then the big 4 they are a team I wouldn't be thrilled Duke playing.

[phaedrus]

I think we have a slightly better shot at a good tournament run than the 2003 team (which lost to KU in the Sweet 16) and a slightly worse shot than the 2005 team (which lost to MSU in the Sweet 16 but was a #1 seed).

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

That sounds about right. Single senior leader (DJ, Dan) with a young team that has some holes and some great potential. Older than '03, younger than'05. Deeper than both. We still rely on the 3-ball, but this time we have an amazing number of guys who can get hot on a given night (Greg, Jon, and King are elite shooters, Demarcus, Sing, and arguably Hendo are good on a given night). To me this team feels more like the late-1980s squads (deep, versatile, hungry) than more recent vintage (overpowering, built to play one way, confident) which may be good news for our post-season success.

[Ignatius07]

At the risk of sounding like I am really just a DevilCastDown alternate user ID, I think you are right again, though I think we could develop to have better chances than both 03 and 05. I think we forecast to have a much better shot than 03, especially because we have a solid shot at getting a 2 seed, and we probably won't run into the national runner-up.

The key to this year is developing multiple options. I think it's fair to at least compare (take it easy guys) freshman King to freshman Redick in terms of the potential threats they posed to defenses. As for other top scoring threats: in 03 we had Jones, Ewing, Duhon in a rather disappointing year, and freshman Shelden. Now we've got a much improved Henderson (who shows signs of breaking out), a much improved (or maybe just healthy) DeMarcus, an elite shooting threat in Paulus, Scheyer and Singler. I didn't touch on Smith, who looks like he will be a very good offensive player one day (hopefully soon). I am pretty excited about our chances in the tournament - not to win, but maybe for a Final Four.