Critiques of Duke MBB recruiting

[Troublemaker]

Gerald's only 6'4", which is short for an NBA 2-guard. He'll be around at least three. As for Kyle, I'm not sure but I suspect he's someone who's in no rush to leave school (Same with Gerald actually). Kyle will give us two, I think.

[ACCBBallFan]

Are you talking about Henderson or Singler going pro after this year? I don't see it. Henderson has great athletic ability but needs to develop more and work through his asthma. I saw Singler at the Peach Jam last go-through; he is going to be a great asset but he's not a one-and-done IMO (He reminded me of Dunleavy, although not as frail; I think he is probably a three year player but would love to have four).

SilkyJ read me correctly on the first part - I don't think either goes after this year. The context was going at same time as Monroe after next year, whether Monroe is on Duke or somewhere else.

He was not.

He was referring to them leaving after the FOLLOWING season, which would be AFTER our 1st season with Monroe, if he comes to Duke, of course (singler would be rising junior, henderson a rising senior).

What he is saying, is that if Monroe comes to Duke and stays for a second year, ACCbballfan thinks that this might entice Singler and/or G-money to want to leave...

What I don't understand is why he thinks that. I guess he thinks that if Monroe stays for a 2nd year, its because his 1st year was only OK. This means that Hendo and Singler probably would have been focal points of the offense during that year and their NBA stock would be high. If they stayed around for another year, Monroe might explode and they might play in his shadow a little more and their NBA stock might depreciate...

silky "post-interpreter-extraordinaire" j

On the second part, I had not gone through those girations, just felt odds are one of the three might go after that season.

So, SilkyJ, I was not thinking one's performance versus another, jus that one may feel he is ready, and take his chances the NBA GM's agree.

[JasonEvans]

Where do you get this stuff?

There is every reason to think it is very likely that Singler and Henderson will not opt for the pros after this season, but to suggest it is impossible is being blind to the talent these two guys appear to have.

In other words, PY's post was dead on target.

--Jason "worth noting that neither Henderson nor Singler are in a financial situation where turning pro ASAP is essential for their family" Evans

[ACCBBallFan]

There is every reason to think it is very likely that Singler and Henderson will not opt for the pros after this season, but to suggest it is impossible is being blind to the talent these two guys appear to have.

In other words, PY's post was dead on target.

--Jason "worth noting that neither Henderson nor Singler are in a financial situation where turning pro ASAP is essential for their family" Evans

As I said, I doubt either go league but of the two, Duke could absorb the loss of Henderson (and Nelson). They would still have Paulus-Scheyer-Nolan-Marty and possibly Elliot Wiliams, or could move Kyle to the 3.

Losing Kyle Singler after only one year would be pretty traumatic, best case being Monroe not as complete a player commits to Duke and even a bigger hit if no Greg Monroe and Singler one and done.

That would depend on how much King-Zoubek-Lance develop this year and McClure would also be around one more year and Olek Czyz a freshman. So probably still as good or better team than this year with 8 or 9 extra man years of experience, but not a legit FF contender in that worst case scenario.

[SilkyJ]

There is every reason to think it is very likely that Singler and Henderson will not opt for the pros after this season, but to suggest it is impossible is being blind to the talent these two guys appear to have.

In other words, PY's post was dead on target.

--Jason "worth noting that neither Henderson nor Singler are in a financial situation where turning pro ASAP is essential for their family" Evans

Yea I actually agreed with an entire PY post, which just never happens. I am hoping that we will be able to spread our offense around a good deal this year so that no one person is going studly enough to think they are a lotto pick...(not including demarcus, of course)

[ACCBBallFan]

Back to the original premise of the thread, “Is Duke’s recruiting slipping?”

Perhaps the best way to answer is an illustration.

Duke’s top six returnees in almost any category last year are Scheyer-Paulus-Nelson-McClure-Gerald-Lance, and by such a wide margin that if you add the results for Zoubek and Pocius in almost all cases their combined total is less than the bottom of the 6, usually Lance.

So you can take your starting 5 from those 6 and give me the leftover guy, but chances are I would not use him unless you gave me Nelson or Gerald which is unlikely.

I will take Zoubek-Marty and the three frosh Singler-King-Nolan plus whichever sixth guy you discard, and construct a team that can compete with your five.

Chances are you take the two best athletes Henderson and Nelson.
You need at least one of Greg-Jon to play PG.
You need at least one of Lance-Dave to have some semblance of a post defender.

So chances are you give me one of Greg-Jon, probably Jon or one of Lance-Dave, probably Dave. Not sure I would need to start either McClure or Scheyer to field a team that can compete with whichever 5 you choose to start. For example

Greg vs. Nolan
Jon vs. Marty
Demarcus vs. Kyle
Gerald/Dave vs. Taylor
Lance vs. Brain

Second team would be a little weak on defense in the post but Lance is not that much of a threat either and matchups work both ways. Zoubek’s height and King’s and Singler’s ability to spread out the double teamer would cause defensive problems for the first squad also, as would Nolan’s and Marty’s ability to penetrate past Greg and Jon.

If defense became too big a problem, I would sub in McClure or whoever you gave me from the original 6.

So yes, Duke’s recruiting has addressed some of its critical needs.

[sandinmyshoes]

Evidently Dexter Stickland, ranked the #1 point guard in the '09 class by some, has committed to UNC. At least they should be running out of scholarships and we won't have to read this sort of thing for a long while.

(I fixed it, and may Kevin forgive me!)

[Ignatius07]

Wow - can even more hysteria break out on these boards? We will soon see...

[JasonEvans]

Uhhhh, wow!!

Strickland is the #1 rated PG in the 2009 class and with Larry Drew not considered all that great a prospect he was needed.

What is really stunning though is that UNC already has a commitment from one of the best PGs in the 2010 class too, Kendall Marshall. When Marshall committed, I figured it would make it hard for them to get someone in 2009 and we might be treated to a couple years of Larry Drew running the show for Carolina. Nope-- Roy took care of that.

This is somewhat similar to Duke landing JWill and Duhon in back-to-back classes-- though it is worth noting that, especially in the case of Marshall, these kids are quite young and we don't know how their high school careers will go the next 2-3 years or even if they will still be stud prospects when they arrive on campus. That said, I'd rate the odds as verry good that they are both Mickie Dees when the time comes in their classes for that.

Mad props to Roy for landing what he needs to go with the slew of big men he has gotten lately. I imagine he will turn all his attention to wings at this point but if, as many believe, PG and Post are the 2 most important positions in college ball, then Carolina's future is indeed bright.

--Jason "I look forward to Kenny Boyton dunking all over Strickland --- I hope!!" Evans

[billybreen]

Yikes. I grew accustomed to Duke landing most of the monster classes over the last decade or two, so UNC's continued success on the recruiting trail is no fun.

[JasonEvans]

Yikes. I grew accustomed to Duke landing most of the monster classes over the last decade or two, so UNC's continued success on the recruiting trail is no fun.

wait a second-- since when has Carolina been anything but a total recruiting stud? This is nothing new for them. Heck, many recruiting historians would probably tell you that Carolina is the #1 recruiting school of the past 20-30 years.

It does not matter all that much to us. The rivalry is more fun when both sides are good. K will get what he needs in recruiting, he always has and there is no reason to think he will stop any time soon.

Remember that Duke brought in a stud class this season while Carolina signed... uhhhh... not a single player. It is hardly surprising that they have done well in 2008 and 2009 considering all the playing time opportunities at UNC in the future. I'd venture to say that not a single player on their current roster will be starting in 2009 -- maybe Thompson or Stephenson. They need to bring in a bunch of studs and they need them NOW!

Duke, on the other hand, will have King, Smith, Scheyer, Zoubek, Thomas, Pocius, and maybe Henderson and Singler still on the roster in 2009. That is why we did not bother very much with 2008 and are focusing on 2009. Just because the kids we appear to be leading for (Boyton, Echenique, and others) have not made it official yet is no reason to panic. Wake me up when we miss on all these guys in 2009. It is a very safe bet that Duke lands 3 or even 4 Mickie Dees from that class... and that we remain locked in the top 10 along with UNC over the forseeable future.

--Jason "no panic here-- but then again I have been around long enough to know that panicking about K and recruiting is a fool's errand" Evans

[Duvall]

The rivalry is more fun when both sides are good.

This is untrue.

[jimsumner]

So Larry Drew hasn't even shown up and they've recruited over him twice.

BTW, this means that UNC won't be involved with Leslie McDonald, who may emerge as a Duke target.

[sandinmyshoes]

From what I've picked up, Strickland is a combo guard and Williams sold him on finding time at both spots. What really perplexes me is that evidently both Drew and Marshall were active in trying to get him to commit despite the fact that they all play the point. Of course, Stickland is good enough that one or two years is all he'll see at UNC.

[billybreen]

wait a second-- since when has Carolina been anything but a total recruiting stud? This is nothing new for them. Heck, many recruiting historians would probably tell you that Carolina is the #1 recruiting school of the past 20-30 years.

I'm thinking specifically of Brand / Battier / Burgess / Avery, Boozer / J. Williams / Dunleavy, and to a lesser extent S. Williams / Redick / Shav / Dockery classes coming in within a few years of each other. I don't recall Carolina landing big classes during that late 90s / early 00s stretch until the May / Felton / McCants crew, but maybe they landed big classes that didn't produce.

As for the contention that the rivalry is more fun, that's absurd. The rivalry is more fun when we win every game, and I won't be happy till the series record is in our favor.

In fact, I hold you personally responsible for Carolina's recent success for toting out that line during their disastrous 2001-2002 season. Lo and behold, Jawad Williams, a freshman on that squad, went on to win a national championship as a senior. All your fault.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

The rivalry is more fun when both sides are good.

This is untrue.

I agree with Jason Evans! Games between rivals are somewhat like life. There may be some pleasure in doing things which require little effort, but the greatest sense of achievement and reward comes from doing things that require our very best efforts. One of the best examples of why it's more fun to play (and win) against others who are really good is the now famous Duke - Kentucky game won at the last possible moment by a long pass and a great shot. Would that game have meant as much if it had been an easy win over Kentucky???? Absolutely not!

[freedevil]

It does not matter all that much to us. The rivalry is more fun when both sides are good. K will get what he needs in recruiting, he always has and there is no reason to think he will stop any time soon.

I disagree. I'm not a sky-is-falling type of fan, but the whole "this does not matter" or "this isn't that big of a deal" attitude about UNC's recruiting compared to Duke that has been espoused by JimSumner, Jumbo, and now one of my favorite posters is getting a little ridiculous.

I am well aware that I will not able to convince many on this board that Duke's recruiting has been weaker in the past couple of years compared to the late 90s and early 2000s, so I post my disagreement in support of all of those other posters who get (and will get) immediately shot down for expressing concern over Duke's recent success on the recruiting trial.

[MarkD83]

These are all verbal committments at this point in time. Clearly getting verbal committments may discourage other schools from actively pursuing these players, but would some of these players start to reconsider once they see who else is around or as they grow up and see the light (dark blue that is).

[Patrick Yates]

I might agree with the above poster with regards to decommits, at least in the post. I stated on an earlier thread that not all of these guys will show up.

That said, Duke and UNC are very similiar in that they rarely experience Decommits. This is probably because both schools are always on TV, and in virtually each game the announcers list the incomming recruits, thus stoking the egos of the verbal commits. Unless UNC backs off, I would not be surprised if this run of talent holds up.

Patrick Yates

[JasonEvans]

I am well aware that I will not able to convince many on this board that Duke's recruiting has been weaker in the past couple of years compared to the late 90s and early 2000s, so I post my disagreement in support of all of those other posters who get (and will get) immediately shot down for expressing concern over Duke's recent success on the recruiting trial.

Yeah, if only we had landed a top-5 recruit in the most recent class... wait, we did that this past year.

But we have not landed a number one recruit in the entire class in... (checks his records)... 3 whole years.

When was the last time we had a class that was arguably among the top 3 in the nation? In 2007... and in 2006... and in 2005.

I really want to understand the angst over Duke's recruiting, but there is not a shred of evidence to back it up.

No one, repeat NO ONE has recruited as well as Duke has the past few years. It is really not even close. Everyone is hung up on one or two misses and ignore the mountains (Alps sized mountains) of evidence that Duke is still a monster of a recruiting power. We will remain competitive with Carolina... mark it down.

--Jason "see my earlier note about all the kids we have now who will still be here in 2009... are you really worried?" Evans