Critiques of Duke MBB recruiting

[jimsumner]

Consensus rankings. Class of '07.



http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/RSCI_100_Final_2007.htm

[Lulu]

Yeah, and I think that unnecessary hype might come after the commitment to Duke. After seeing so many of our recruits in recent years shoot up the ratings their senior year I'm starting to think it's the Duke intent that makes them "better", rather than our knack for recruiting the underrated. The only exception might be this year, since Smith & King seemed to have slipped (but was this not after a steep rise anyway after they committed??? I don't quite remember).

I agree with the post that said that we had a run where we weren't really that athletic. Sometimes I think we make too big a deal about getting McDAA's. Some, not all of those players, got some unecessary hype. I will say that I hope a solid post and a pure point guard is coming in the near future. We are all hoping that Nolan can play some point. That being said, we still recruit with the best of them!

[ACCBBallFan]

This link makes an even more compelling argument:

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recru...fseason%3d2007

Duke has three guys in top 17 and next quickest team to 3 in top 50 is UF #44, Mich ST #47, Syr #48 and Ohio St # 49.

Teams with 2 guys in top 50 are Memphis, G-town, UK, Nova, Arizona, Purdue, and Alabama.

I know rankings are based on entire class but IMO hard to assimilate more than 3 freshmen.

On the link Jim provided,

Duke has 3 in top 24, Mich St 3 in top 38, UF 3 in top 46, Purdue 3 in top 47 and Syracuse 3 in top 48. Teams with 2 are Arizona, UK, G-town, Villanova, DePaul and Alabama.

Combining these two polls, I rate the classes for best 3 Duke first, Mich St 2nd and Syracuse 3rd.

[Olympic Fan]

Jim posted the link, but if anybody is too lazy to go there (as I often am), the RSCI (which averages the major recruiting rankings) has Singler at No. 5, Smith at No. 19 and King at No. 24.

Overall, Duke's class is ranked No. 3 nationally -- not our best, but hardly evidence of "slippage". In recent years Duke has had the No. 1 class in 1997 (Brand, Battier -- which is, I think, the only class in NCAA history to produce two consensus national players of the year); in 1999 (JWill, Boozer, Dunleavy); 2002 (Redick, Shelden, Shav, Dock -- one of the few NCAA classes with two concensus first-team All-Americans); and 2005 (Paulus, McRoberts -- so far, the only No. 1 class that I would class a disappointment with Boykin and Boateng leaving without contributing and McRoberts leaving after two less-than-dominant years; I think Paulus can and will still be very good).

Interesting that the first three of Duke's four No. 1 classes each produced at least one concensus national player of the year.

Every school has ups and downs in recruiting. And even if a coach recruits well, he's going to have small classes some years. Recently inducted HOF coach Roy Williams had two very good years in 2005 and 2006. He wiped out entirely in 2007 (when he was only trying to sign one guy) and he's already had more misses than hits in 2008. Is his recruiting slipping (my answer is no, he's just going through a normal down cycle after a very good up cycle).

K had three very solid classes in a row with 2005, 2006 (Henderson, Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek) and 2007 (Singler, Smith and King). According to ther RSCI averages those classes ranked 1,3,3 nationally.

This year's crop was always designed as a small class at Duke. If K adds Monroe and Williams to Czyz, Duke's 2008 class will probably rank around No. 3 again ... if he gets one or none of those two, then it will be rated a non-top 10 class.

But that won't be a sign that he's slipping any more than UNC's empty 2007 class is a sign that Roy-boy is slipping. When K goes 2-3 years in a row without a top five class, THEN we can say he's slipping.

BTW: I think K's made his attitude toward one-year players very clear. He's not afraid of a kid who's so good that he might go after one year (Monroe is clearly in that range). But what he wants is a kid that will come to Duke and for one year will commit to being a Duke player all the way -- both on the court and in the classroom and on campus. At the end of that year, if the kid wants to go pro, fine ...

What he does not want is a kid who comes to campus solely to use that one year as a springboard to the NBA. That's why he released Humphries from his LOI (and Kris went to Minnesota, had a fine year on the court, blew off his academic responsibilities, then jumped to the NBA). That's why K could go after Brandan Wright, who was always expected to be one-and-done (but was a good academic kid who did a great job as a part of the UNC program while he was there) and why he wouldn't give OJ Mayo a sniff.

[Carlos]

Is Duke's recruiting slipping? Sure, but then from the Battier-Brand class through the JWill-Boozer class Duke basically went out and got anyone they wanted. So slipping from the 100% range down to the level of other programs isn't exactly a bad fall so much as it was a helluva rise during those late-90's early 2000's classes.

OTOH, should Duke be so fortunate as to sign Monroe and Williams this season then you can look at next year's roster as:

SR: Paulus (McD), McClure, Pocius
JR: Henderson (McD), Scheyer (McD), Thomas (McD), Zoubek
SO: Singler (McD), Smith (McD), King (McD)
FR: Monroe (McD), Williams (McD), Czyz

I realize that being a McD's AA isn't everything, but that's still a lot of guys who would be pretty highly ranked and desirable targets for any program.

[gw67]

Olympic - Your post is on the mark as usual. I have very little faith in the recruiting gurus once you get past the top 20 players in a strong class and the top 10 in a weak class. The RSCI averages and takes some of the goofiness out the rankings. IMO, once you get past the top handful of players, the difference between, say no. 30 and no. 70 in the rankings, is a guess. For example, I looked at the final RSCI ranking for 2004 (this year's senior classs). Nine out of the top ten are playing in the NBA (I believe Hairston is still at Oregon), while Young (89) and the 1st round pick of the Wizards, Leunen (86), Noah (72), Foster (62), Neitzel (54) and several others have turned out to be much better players than their rankings.

I suspect that being recruited by Duke, UNC, Kansas, Connecticut, UCLA and a few others can have an impact on the ranking by the individual "expert" but it probably isn't as great an effect as some folks believe.

gw67

[VaDukie]

There was a good article on CBS Sportsline in the summer about how highly ranked recruiting classes are such a fetish for die hard fans, sometimes even more so than successful seasons. The reasoning is that while the memory of a successful season can fade quickly, the promise of a highly ranked class can give fans time to speculate and dream of the success that might happen.

Taking this into account, I think the idea that Duke recruiting has fallen off is mainly due to the fact that we haven't performed as well as we might have hoped. There's no question overall we've had great success the past 5 or 6 years, but we've had some real heartbreaks in the NCAA's and that breeds a lot of fear and doubt.

I hope this year with a maturing team we can 'overacheive' in the NCAA's relative to our seed.

[SilkyJ]

Don't forget that with we have 11 (maybe more?) scholarship players this year, and we'll only lose to graduation in Demarcus, so after reloading bigtime 3 years in a row, we now may have to tone it down for at least one year b/c we simply don't have the scholarships...

[JasonEvans]

Don't forget that with we have 11 (maybe more?) scholarship players this year, and we'll only lose to graduation in Demarcus, so after reloading bigtime 3 years in a row, we now may have to tone it down for at least one year b/c we simply don't have the scholarships...

I think it is exceedingly likely that we will lose someone -- perhaps more than one someone -- to early entry over the next 2 years.

K can and will continue to bring in 3-4 kids per year with the knowledge that we are likely to lose 2-3 players every 3-4 years to early entry.

--Jason "I wish it was not that way, but that is now how it works" Evans

[Patrick Yates]

I think this is the most telling part of Carroll's response, and it is dead on. I think sure-fire relates to kids who would have been drafted in or very near the lottery, directly out of HS, or at most 1 year of college.

Really, you have to go back to the J-Will, Boozer class to find a time when Duke brought in Multiple, sure fire pros.

Since they left, I would argue that the only two Sure Fire pros we brought in were Deng and Singler. (McBob too, but everyone whiffed on that one. Sure, he made it, but with his athleticism and skillset, he should have been a lottery with the right attitude, which wasn't there. Also, there were whispers that he heard some negative opinions when he considered the preps to pros route, which is how he ended up at Duke, thus calling into question his sure fire status)

Many of our other recruits had potential, some of them great potential, but potential nonetheless.

JJ was a shooter, but his quickness was always a knock. Shel was a heck of shot-blocker and rebounder, but the pros wanted to see if he could score. Both these remained areas of question right up until their Jr-Sr years.

Henderson, who is the closest to sure fire, but not quite there. He has to show ball-handling and outside shooting before the pros come calling. Smith must show that he can run the point, at least on a part time basis. Love, Scheyer and Paulus each have their strengths, but all must prove they are athletic enough to make the pros. Nelson is nearly pro ready, but it took him 4 years, so he definitely was not a can't miss pro.

Of our possible recruits (the 08 class), only Monroe is sure fire. Williams, like Smith and Henderson, has all the tools, but the pros want to see some shooting, ball handling, and running a team before they invest. Czyz will really have to hone his perimeter skills, because there isn't much demand for a 6-7, 240 lb PF, I don't care how high he jumps. Sure he might make it as PF if he never hones his perimeter skills, but it is not SURE FIRE.

From the Brand to J-Will class, we crought in 3-4 can't miss pros (even Saint Battier was not in the sure fire range out of HS, there are only a few of those every year). Even Duke won't bring one in every year. But, we went for a period of time where we only brought in one, that being Deng. On this year's squad, only Singler would have been drafted as a HS senior. Henderson will get there, but he wasn't sure fire.

I think that phrase "sure fire pro" was spot on. Not every successful pro was can't miss as a HS senior. But, with these players having to go to college, having one or two is almost a necessity to win a NC. Except for Florida, and a bunch of people whiffed on some recruits who developed a lot better than ANYBODY thought they would.

Patrick Yates

[SilkyJ]

"I've written this same post 20 different times in 20 different ways, but I'm telling ya, its the transfers and early entries that are killing us, so coach K is finally adjusting his philosophy and will return us to dominance!"

Seems to be killing the guy down the road and others, for example, UCLA, less, I think is the point. Things like losing that kid to Kentucky could make an awful lot of difference this year, especially after all the other bigs but Singlar, who really isn't a big, signed elsewhere.

Perhaps competing for the likely one and done, okay maybe I'll stay two, crowd, isn't a fit for either K or Duke. Not a bad thing, imo, if it is so. But, it has to impact the program.

I didn't articulate it in that version of the post, but what I've been saying is that early entries and transfers are not something K is accustomed to dealing with. This is a recent phenomenon, for US at least, and we are finally adapting.

Modern-day UNC, for example, has been dealing with early entries since AT LEAST MJ's class.

I think it is exceedingly likely that we will lose someone -- perhaps more than one someone -- to early entry over the next 2 years.

K can and will continue to bring in 3-4 kids per year with the knowledge that we are likely to lose 2-3 players every 3-4 years to early entry.

--Jason "I wish it was not that way, but that is now how it works" Evans

I couldn't agree more. In fact, that's the whole point of what I was saying earlier in the thread about us having to reload basically every year b/c this whole early entry thing is catching up to us.

Going on sheer numbers, though, K can't give out more than 3 scholarships for NEXT year (not over the next two years, just next year) B/c he can only be certain that we will have 3 to give. So we can't really seriously target more than 3 or 4 players...which is what we are doing.

Now come april someone may declare for the draft (knock on wood) and then we'll have extra scholarship open up, but by then its almost always too late.

Changing the timetable of the discussion to include the next TWO years completely changes things b/c in two years we will have at least 3 scholarships free from graduation alone (mcclure, marty, paulus), not to mention possible early entries (knocking on wood again...) That's why I was just talking about next year...

[ACCBBallFan]

I didn't articulate it in that version of the post, but what I've been saying is that early entries and transfers are not something K is accustomed to dealing with. This is a recent phenomenon, for US at least, and we are finally adapting.

Modern-day UNC, for example, has been dealing with early entries since AT LEAST MJ's class.



I couldn't agree more. In fact, that's the whole point of what I was saying earlier in the thread about us having to reload basically every year b/c this whole early entry thing is catching up to us.

Going on sheer numbers, though, K can't give out more than 3 scholarships for NEXT year (not over the next two years, just next year) B/c he can only be certain that we will have 3 to give. So we can't really seriously target more than 3 or 4 players...which is what we are doing.

Now come april someone may declare for the draft (knock on wood) and then we'll have extra scholarship open up, but by then its almost always too late.

Changing the timetable of the discussion to include the next TWO years completely changes things b/c in two years we will have at least 3 scholarships free from graduation alone (mcclure, marty, paulus), not to mention possible early entries (knocking on wood again...) That's why I was just talking about next year...

Yes, minimum of three, and that assumes both Monroe and Williams commit to Duke. With Monroe likely a one and done, you can consider it a minimum of four, given that if Monroe does come but does not go, Henderson or Singler very well may.

[OldPhiKap]

Yes, minimum of three, and that assumes both Monroe and Williams commit to Duke. With Monroe likely a one and done, you can consider it a minimum of four, given that if Monroe does come but does not go, Henderson or Singler very well may.

Are you talking about Henderson or Singler going pro after this year? I don't see it. Henderson has great athletic ability but needs to develop more and work through his asthma. I saw Singler at the Peach Jam last go-through; he is going to be a great asset but he's not a one-and-done IMO (He reminded me of Dunleavy, although not as frail; I think he is probably a three year player but would love to have four).

[SilkyJ]

Are you talking about Henderson or Singler going pro after this year? I don't see it. Henderson has great athletic ability but needs to develop more and work through his asthma. I saw Singler at the Peach Jam last go-through; he is going to be a great asset but he's not a one-and-done IMO (He reminded me of Dunleavy, although not as frail; I think he is probably a three year player but would love to have four).

He was not.

He was referring to them leaving after the FOLLOWING season, which would be AFTER our 1st season with Monroe, if he comes to Duke, of course (singler would be rising junior, henderson a rising senior).

What he is saying, is that if Monroe comes to Duke and stays for a second year, ACCbballfan thinks that this might entice Singler and/or G-money to want to leave...

What I don't understand is why he thinks that. I guess he thinks that if Monroe stays for a 2nd year, its because his 1st year was only OK. This means that Hendo and Singler probably would have been focal points of the offense during that year and their NBA stock would be high. If they stayed around for another year, Monroe might explode and they might play in his shadow a little more and their NBA stock might depreciate...

silky "post-interpreter-extraordinaire" j

[OldPhiKap]

^ Thanks.

[Patrick Yates]

He was not.

He was referring to them leaving after the FOLLOWING season, which would be AFTER our 1st season with Monroe, if he comes to Duke, of course (singler would be rising junior, henderson a rising senior).

What he is saying, is that if Monroe comes to Duke and stays for a second year, ACCbballfan thinks that this might entice Singler and/or G-money to want to leave...

What I don't understand is why he thinks that. I guess he thinks that if Monroe stays for a 2nd year, its because his 1st year was only OK. This means that Hendo and Singler probably would have been focal points of the offense during that year and their NBA stock would be high. If they stayed around for another year, Monroe might explode and they might play in his shadow a little more and their NBA stock might depreciate...

silky "post-interpreter-extraordinaire" j

As much as no one on the boards wants to admit it, there is a giant white elephant in the room this year.

As everyone here is well aware, Duke COULD be loaded during the 08-09 season. As the team stands now, we will be solid at every position, and loaded at the wing position. At the very least, Zoubs and Lance should be solid after 2 years in the program (they could/probably will be much better than merely solid), at least solid enough for us to make a serious run at the FF.

IF we get Monroe, and to a lesser extent Williams (lesser extent only because of current existing depth at the Guard positions), Duke will be a monster, possibly number 1 in the preseason. The difference between us being top 6-7 and top 2 is of course Monroe.

BUT, those projections, with or without Monroe, are contingent on Henderson AND Singler being in Durham.

Sadly, that is not a given. It is a LIKELIHOOD, but not a given.

Realistically, Duke is going to need scorers this year. The team's best chance of long term success requires Paulus to be more of a distributer than scorer (but we need, and will get, plenty of both). As an above poster stated, Henderson must work through his asthma issues, and prove to the pros he is healthy. From a basketball standpoint, he must prove that the has adequate perimeter shooting and ball handling skills to play the 2 spot in the pros. Personally, I thought his 3 stroke looked fine, he just needs to shoot/make more of them this year.

Singler must prove that he is athletic/durable enough to play the three in the pros, even if he plays more of a PF role at Duke (see Battier, Shane). Many on-line prognosticators think Singler will be the best player at Duke, sooner rather than later, and that he could be one of the best players in the ACC this year.

My point is, it is possible that Hendersona AND/or Singler have breakout years. The pros could come a-calling this year. Henderson clearly has the athleticism the pros drool over. IF he is healthy enough to allay the asthma concerns, he will play major minutes this year. Based on what he flashed at the end of last year, that could translate into him being very attractive to the pros next year. Same with Singler. We all compare him to Dunleavy, (which is probably very accurate), but if he plays to his potential/expectations, the comparison that the national media will use is Larry Bird. Now, we all know that is unreasonable, if not criminally stupid. But, that is the nature of how pro scouts analyze players. They compare them to similiar players at that position. Kyle is supposedly a player with good scoring moves, good perimeter skills, and toughness inside. The only possible knock is that he does not have elite athleticism. Note the word elite. He is a good athlete, merely not elite, of which there is only 1 or 2 such athletes in any given draft.

Many on the board are taking it for granted that Kyle and Hendo will be here beyond this year. I think that is likely (and I sure hope they are here), but I would not be surprised if both left. Frankly, two solid comparisons here at Duke are Maggette (Hendo) and Deng (Kyle). Both have the definite potential this year to blow up. Now, I doubt we lose both, but losing one is a real possibility.

Patrick Yates

[Indoor66]

As much as no one on the boards wants to admit it, there is a giant white elephant in the room this year.

As everyone here is well aware, Duke COULD be loaded during the 08-09 season. As the team stands now, we will be solid at every position, and loaded at the wing position. At the very least, Zoubs and Lance should be solid after 2 years in the program (they could/probably will be much better than merely solid), at least solid enough for us to make a serious run at the FF.

IF we get Monroe, and to a lesser extent Williams (lesser extent only because of current existing depth at the Guard positions), Duke will be a monster, possibly number 1 in the preseason. The difference between us being top 6-7 and top 2 is of course Monroe.

BUT, those projections, with or without Monroe, are contingent on Henderson AND Singler being in Durham.

Sadly, that is not a given. It is a LIKELIHOOD, but not a given.

Realistically, Duke is going to need scorers this year. The team's best chance of long term success requires Paulus to be more of a distributer than scorer (but we need, and will get, plenty of both). As an above poster stated, Henderson must work through his asthma issues, and prove to the pros he is healthy. From a basketball standpoint, he must prove that the has adequate perimeter shooting and ball handling skills to play the 2 spot in the pros. Personally, I thought his 3 stroke looked fine, he just needs to shoot/make more of them this year.

Singler must prove that he is athletic/durable enough to play the three in the pros, even if he plays more of a PF role at Duke (see Battier, Shane). Many on-line prognosticators think Singler will be the best player at Duke, sooner rather than later, and that he could be one of the best players in the ACC this year.

My point is, it is possible that Hendersona AND/or Singler have breakout years. The pros could come a-calling this year. Henderson clearly has the athleticism the pros drool over. IF he is healthy enough to allay the asthma concerns, he will play major minutes this year. Based on what he flashed at the end of last year, that could translate into him being very attractive to the pros next year. Same with Singler. We all compare him to Dunleavy, (which is probably very accurate), but if he plays to his potential/expectations, the comparison that the national media will use is Larry Bird. Now, we all know that is unreasonable, if not criminally stupid. But, that is the nature of how pro scouts analyze players. They compare them to similiar players at that position. Kyle is supposedly a player with good scoring moves, good perimeter skills, and toughness inside. The only possible knock is that he does not have elite athleticism. Note the word elite. He is a good athlete, merely not elite, of which there is only 1 or 2 such athletes in any given draft.

Many on the board are taking it for granted that Kyle and Hendo will be here beyond this year. I think that is likely (and I sure hope they are here), but I would not be surprised if both left. Frankly, two solid comparisons here at Duke are Maggette (Hendo) and Deng (Kyle). Both have the definite potential this year to blow up. Now, I doubt we lose both, but losing one is a real possibility.

Patrick Yates

Where do you get this stuff?

[OldPhiKap]

If they both explode into lotto players this season, I think I will be happy enough with the season to watch them go. But for the reasons I stated above, I don't see that happening in one year. I think that they both have great pro prospects when they ripen.

Even if you're right, though -- what of it? Are we not supposed to go after these kids because we're afraid they're gonna be too good?!? I would be thrilled for both of them to be so d@mn good this year that the only logical choice is for them to go to the next level. I see both of them wanting their degrees, though, and I think they are three year players minimum just on a developmental level. JMHO.

[Patrick Yates]

If they both explode into lotto players this season, I think I will be happy enough with the season to watch them go. But for the reasons I stated above, I don't see that happening in one year. I think that they both have great pro prospects when they ripen.

Even if you're right, though -- what of it? Are we not supposed to go after these kids because we're afraid they're gonna be too good?!? I would be thrilled for both of them to be so d@mn good this year that the only logical choice is for them to go to the next level. I see both of them wanting their degrees, though, and I think they are three year players minimum just on a developmental level. JMHO.

I did not articulate it very well, but you are right. You have to go after these kids. But, it seems like people are hoping for guys who will be studs for 2-3 years. That is not going to happen. In todays game, if you are a stud for 1 year, your draft profile could push you out the door.

I guess I am trying to say that people need to take off their blinders. The absolute best possible case scenario, that Hendo and Singler are both very good, AND both return, AND both Williams and Monroe come is unlikely. I am with you on Hendo needing to prove that his asthma is no longer a concern, and that he might be arround until his junior year. But Singler could be a threat to go pro. But you need guys like this to really win. Sure, role players are also important, but the national championship teams, or at least final four teams, are going to be built arround a couple of 1-2 year studs. My point was not so much about the recruiting of these or any players, merely a desire to temper the expectations of the 08-09 team, which people look towards when discussing the Monroe recruitment.

And Indoor, I "get this" from the various threads that have yelled at me that Duke will be a real solid team this year. Those posts dismiss my fears regarding the interior stating that Singler will be destroying people with his inside out game. Many of those same posts point out that Henderson looked great at the end of last year (granted) and that he will pick up right where he left off. If these arguments are proven correct (we'll see), then why would't the pros be interested in a 6-5 (205-210) stud athlete, or a smooth 6-9 (215-225) lb forward with a great inside out game. I don't want it to happen, but both those guys are prototypes at their respective positions.

THAT IS WHY I SAID COULD. Jeez. I am tired of getting jumped on for throwing out a possibility. Tell me why you think I am wrong. No one else here says anthing but their opinion, and at least I articulate my reasons for my opinions.

I am sorry, but a board where all we discuss is the degree of Duke's Perfection and how every possible thing will work out in Duke's favor is not appealing, or realistic.

After the 99 season we were all stoked. Everyone was coming back. Anyone, and I mean everyone, who suggested that Duke might lose a few players were (rudely) shouted down. I myself shouted down a few who suggested that Burgess might transfer, or that Avery and Maggette might leave (people were pretty sure Brand was gone). That didn't end so well. If Singler and Hendo are as good as some people think, why wouldn't they go pro for millions of dollars? Love of school? Durham's fantastic collge town setting? Disdain for pro-groupies? What keeps them in school besides us wanting it to happen?

Patrick Yates

[OldPhiKap]

^ You are correct to say that you need a mix of impact players and solid 4-year guys. I also agree that there is nothing for certain in '08. I'm hoping for a good '07 and then worry about next season next season.