Originally Posted by
HumboldtDevil
Anybody that thinks this league can get 5 or 6 bids this season is crazy. The ACC just isn't that good this year. There are talented teams that are improving, but are they legitimately good? No.
Clemson has already started a spiral that it'll have to pull itself out of. In addition to three recent ACC losses they lost at home to Charlotte (8-5 then, 13-6 now that they've gotten into A-10 play) right after the UNC game. Clemson actually played and beat some decent teams OOC for once, so they should get in at 8-8 in conference. There's no guarantee they won't tank completely, though.
Maryland has shown in its last two games that it has the talent to make a run in the ACC and play its way into the tournament, but they do have to play their way in. The Terps weren't even on the bubble before UNC and still aren't in the tournament. They'll need to have a winning record in conference or possibly 8-8 with wins in the bigger games. A winning conference record means going at least 7-4 from here, but the Terps haven't been very good or very consistent this year.
Miami had a good OOC record, but has come back down to earth. I don't think it'll do enough to get into the tournament. Like everyone besides Clemson, it'll need to have a winning record in the ACC, I think.Losing to Winthrop at home is noticeable, even with solid wins against VCU, Providence, Miss. St.
Georgia Tech needs to go at least 10-6 in the ACC. They're playing much better, but are only 10-9 overall (3-3 ACC) with some bad OOC losses. And even at 10-6 GT will only be 17-12 entering the conference tournament. Don't expect GT to suddenly be good enough to go 7-3 in conference from this point.
NC State hasn't even played as good as its 13-6 record and is 2-3 in conference. They have the pieces to make a run, but no PG at all. Another team that has to with 9+ in conference, but will they do it?
VA, VT, BC, WF, FSU can be lumped because I'm tired of writing the same thing for every team. Looking at the league right now I think it isn't as bad as I thought because there are basically 10 even teams and two really good teams. These teams besides Duke and UNC aren't terrible, but none of them are clearly good right now. Clemson is the only school that could get away with 8-8. You could make an argument for Miami, but that's it. Every other team needs 9+ wins and have shown almost no sign that they'll be able to do it.
NCAA Tournament prediction: Duke, UNC, Clemson (find a way to 8-8 guys).
I barely have confidence in Clemson, so how can I expect anyone else to play well enough to make the tournament when they all have more to do?