Clemson and Miami will see their RPI fall if they end up at 8-8. I don't know if it'll fall below 40, but it would almost certainly fall lower than the current numbers.
Originally Posted by CDu
FSU two years ago went 19-9,9-8 (with a 1st round ACCT loss) and was on the outside looking in. I believe their RPI was in the mid-40s. 20 wins is not the magic number it used to be with the expansion of number of games played - I believe most schools now play 30 in the regular season, not 27 as was previously the limit. Just last year FSU went 20-12 and didn't make it.
Certainly marquee wins are not a requirement. But they're extremely helpful, particularly when trying to differentiate among teams that are looking pretty indistinguishable. That is especially the case for the teams with bad losses, which is almost all of them (BC to Robert Morris, FSU to Cleveland St and S Florida, GT to UNCG, Miami to Winthrop (with a v. weak non-con schedule - could hurt if they end up 8-8), Maryland to American and Delaware, NCSU to New Orleans and ECU (and the single worst win of anyone in the ACC - 50-43 over Presbyterian), VT to Penn St and Richmond. The teams UVA lost to are all decent, although the Xavier loss was ugly. Ditto Wake, replacing Xavier with Georgia, and they don't have an Arizona win on their record.
Clemson is certainly "safest." But if they go 8-8 and finish 6th, behind 3 teams that somehow went 9-7, it could be very hard to take them. If those 9-7 teams are GT, NCSU, and FSU, the conference could be in real bid trouble. The ACC needs a team (or two) to go on an 8 or 9 win tear, or finish the season winning 8 or 9 of their last ten. If teams keep trading wins and losses, it's worry time.
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