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  1. #41
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    Clemson is going nowhere real fast (surprise, surprise), Miami will stuggle to win big games down the stretch, NC State looks much worse than the 'Canes, and Maryland will probably have too many bad losses to even get looked at unless they win the ACC Tournament or at least advance to the Finals.

    Georgia Tech has looked pretty good at times, but the Jackets have a 10-9 record at the time being, which will have to drastically change in order for them to sniff a post season. Boston College has a decent ACC record right now, sitting in third place at 3-2 (12-6 overall), but most likely won't hold it. Like Clemson, Boston College better start treasuring every SINGLE game or the dream is over.

    This is definitely the most top heavy are conference has been in a long time. Teams three through twelve are the most unpredictable I've seen in years. I have no idea which of those teams will be invited at this point. Absolutely none. I would definitely say Clemson is the early front-runner, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see Oliver's club drop four in a row at some point in February.

    Right now, I would say three teams at most get in.
    "Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by patentgeek View Post
    I suspect that much will depend on (a) whether a team can get to 9-7 in conference and (b) what teams manage to beat Duke and/or the hated Heels. There aren't a lot of impressive non-conference wins out there for the other 10 teams, and there are some atrocious losses (e.g., MD losing to American). Since the bottom 10 teams don't have great non-conference wins to fall back on, they're going to have to rely on either great conference wins (Duke or UNC) or a strong conference performance (which I think this year means 9-7 or better). For most of these teams, I don't think an 8-8 conference record, when combined with the remainder of their resume, is going to be good enough. PFRDUKE's comment that the ACC tournament 1st and 2nd round games may be like play-in games for a lot of these teams may be spot on.
    Clemson is #26 in RPI right now according to Ken Pomeroy. Miami is number 33. Both of those teams have 15 wins. So if they get to 8-8, they'll have 20 wins, 8-8 in one of the "top" conferences, and will have RPI ratings better than #40. That would make it VERY difficult to keep them out, in my opinion. I don't know that I've ever seen a scenario in which that happens. Remember: you don't HAVE to have marquis wins to get into the tournament. In the ACC, 20 wins, 8-8 in conference, and a solid RPI will absolutely get you in.

    Boston College will probably have to get to 9 wins to be comfortable. They're at 3-2 in conference but are only #84 in RPI right now. That said, I think they have a good chance to get to 9-7 in conference, as they have good balance and a top-tier guard. And if they do, their RPI will move up accordingly. And quietly, NC State is lurking with 13 wins, a 2-3 ACC mark, lots of talented players, and the #49 RPI. They could make their presence felt if they can figure out how to play together.

  3. #43
    I'm not sure it's quite that formulaic, although I could be wrong. I'm thinking, for example, of Florida State in 2006 - they finished 19-9 overall, 9-7 in the conference (although with an RPI of around 60) and stayed home. Maryland that year went 8-8 in the conference, 19-12 overall, with an RPI in the high 40s, and stayed home. I realize that these don't fit your exact scenario, but they're not far off. And don't forget that Fla. State beat Duke that year.

    My feeling is that the "8-8 in the ACC gets you in" guideline depends a lot on the perceived strength of the conference. Because there aren't a lot of OOC marquee wins, there is a perception that the ACC is down somewhat irrespective of what the RPI might say. I also think that sometimes the committee uses conference tournaments as a tool to sort out teams - to use the example above, Fla St lost to a 12-place Wake team in the first round of the ACC tournament that year, which was probably their death knell.

    I also think that if, as it looks like may happen, there are 4-5 teams at the 8-8 or 7-9 range, they will be very difficult for the committee to sort out, and it's been my sense that they often don't try - unless one or two of those teams stand out (by head-to-head wins, marquee wins, strength of schedule, or conference tournament performance), the committee seems to prefer to just leave all of them at home.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Clemson is #26 in RPI right now according to Ken Pomeroy. Miami is number 33. Both of those teams have 15 wins. So if they get to 8-8, they'll have 20 wins, 8-8 in one of the "top" conferences, and will have RPI ratings better than #40. That would make it VERY difficult to keep them out, in my opinion. I don't know that I've ever seen a scenario in which that happens. Remember: you don't HAVE to have marquis wins to get into the tournament. In the ACC, 20 wins, 8-8 in conference, and a solid RPI will absolutely get you in.

    Boston College will probably have to get to 9 wins to be comfortable. They're at 3-2 in conference but are only #84 in RPI right now. That said, I think they have a good chance to get to 9-7 in conference, as they have good balance and a top-tier guard. And if they do, their RPI will move up accordingly. And quietly, NC State is lurking with 13 wins, a 2-3 ACC mark, lots of talented players, and the #49 RPI. They could make their presence felt if they can figure out how to play together.
    Clemson and Miami will see their RPI fall if they end up at 8-8. I don't know if it'll fall below 40, but it would almost certainly fall lower than the current numbers.

    FSU two years ago went 19-9,9-8 (with a 1st round ACCT loss) and was on the outside looking in. I believe their RPI was in the mid-40s. 20 wins is not the magic number it used to be with the expansion of number of games played - I believe most schools now play 30 in the regular season, not 27 as was previously the limit. Just last year FSU went 20-12 and didn't make it.

    Certainly marquee wins are not a requirement. But they're extremely helpful, particularly when trying to differentiate among teams that are looking pretty indistinguishable. That is especially the case for the teams with bad losses, which is almost all of them (BC to Robert Morris, FSU to Cleveland St and S Florida, GT to UNCG, Miami to Winthrop (with a v. weak non-con schedule - could hurt if they end up 8-8), Maryland to American and Delaware, NCSU to New Orleans and ECU (and the single worst win of anyone in the ACC - 50-43 over Presbyterian), VT to Penn St and Richmond. The teams UVA lost to are all decent, although the Xavier loss was ugly. Ditto Wake, replacing Xavier with Georgia, and they don't have an Arizona win on their record.

    Clemson is certainly "safest." But if they go 8-8 and finish 6th, behind 3 teams that somehow went 9-7, it could be very hard to take them. If those 9-7 teams are GT, NCSU, and FSU, the conference could be in real bid trouble. The ACC needs a team (or two) to go on an 8 or 9 win tear, or finish the season winning 8 or 9 of their last ten. If teams keep trading wins and losses, it's worry time.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    Clemson is going nowhere real fast (surprise, surprise), Miami will stuggle to win big games down the stretch, NC State looks much worse than the 'Canes, and Maryland will probably have too many bad losses to even get looked at unless they win the ACC Tournament or at least advance to the Finals.

    Georgia Tech has looked pretty good at times, but the Jackets have a 10-9 record at the time being, which will have to drastically change in order for them to sniff a post season. Boston College has a decent ACC record right now, sitting in third place at 3-2 (12-6 overall), but most likely won't hold it. Like Clemson, Boston College better start treasuring every SINGLE game or the dream is over.

    This is definitely the most top heavy are conference has been in a long time. Teams three through twelve are the most unpredictable I've seen in years. I have no idea which of those teams will be invited at this point. Absolutely none. I would definitely say Clemson is the early front-runner, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see Oliver's club drop four in a row at some point in February.

    Right now, I would say three teams at most get in.
    This sounds exactly right to me. It's weird that the conference could be quite competitive on the whole, yet experience such a dearth of truly tournament-worthy squads.

  6. #46
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    Anybody that thinks this league can get 5 or 6 bids this season is crazy. The ACC just isn't that good this year. There are talented teams that are improving, but are they legitimately good? No.

    Clemson has already started a spiral that it'll have to pull itself out of. In addition to three recent ACC losses they lost at home to Charlotte (8-5 then, 13-6 now that they've gotten into A-10 play) right after the UNC game. Clemson actually played and beat some decent teams OOC for once, so they should get in at 8-8 in conference. There's no guarantee they won't tank completely, though.

    Maryland has shown in its last two games that it has the talent to make a run in the ACC and play its way into the tournament, but they do have to play their way in. The Terps weren't even on the bubble before UNC and still aren't in the tournament. They'll need to have a winning record in conference or possibly 8-8 with wins in the bigger games. A winning conference record means going at least 7-4 from here, but the Terps haven't been very good or very consistent this year.

    Miami had a good OOC record, but has come back down to earth. I don't think it'll do enough to get into the tournament. Like everyone besides Clemson, it'll need to have a winning record in the ACC, I think.Losing to Winthrop at home is noticeable, even with solid wins against VCU, Providence, Miss. St.

    Georgia Tech needs to go at least 10-6 in the ACC. They're playing much better, but are only 10-9 overall (3-3 ACC) with some bad OOC losses. And even at 10-6 GT will only be 17-12 entering the conference tournament. Don't expect GT to suddenly be good enough to go 7-3 in conference from this point.

    NC State hasn't even played as good as its 13-6 record and is 2-3 in conference. They have the pieces to make a run, but no PG at all. Another team that has to with 9+ in conference, but will they do it?

    VA, VT, BC, WF, FSU can be lumped because I'm tired of writing the same thing for every team. Looking at the league right now I think it isn't as bad as I thought because there are basically 10 even teams and two really good teams. These teams besides Duke and UNC aren't terrible, but none of them are clearly good right now. Clemson is the only school that could get away with 8-8. You could make an argument for Miami, but that's it. Every other team needs 9+ wins and have shown almost no sign that they'll be able to do it.

    NCAA Tournament prediction: Duke, UNC, Clemson (find a way to 8-8 guys).

    I barely have confidence in Clemson, so how can I expect anyone else to play well enough to make the tournament when they all have more to do?

  7. #47
    Never imagined the ACC could ever be this bad.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by IStillHateJimBain View Post
    Earlier on this board there was a post that the ACC might be a three-bid league this year. That seems unlikely but not wholly impossible. There's a lot of jockeying going in the bottom 10 right now. You would think at least two other ACC teams will get in besides Duke and that team in second place right now. What about it?
    I think they will get in at least 5 teams.

    Georgia Tech, if they finish 8-8 will definately get a bid. Someone mentioned their non-conference schedule but hey, they almost beat Indiana at Indiana and they had a solid chance to beat Kansas, losing by only 5. Of course we know how close they came to beating UNC.

    If the Big 10 is being touted to get 5-6 tams then the ACC should get 10 teams! The Big 10 is the worst conference in the country as the ACC proved in the Challenge.

    I like Duke, UNC, G. Tech, Clemson and Maryland with an outside chance for FSU which is a much better team than what they appear.

  9. #49
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    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by The1Bluedevil View Post
    Never imagined the ACC could ever be this bad.
    If you think the ACC is bad, what if you were a BIG 10 fan!

    The ACC is better than what most think. As a unit they dominated their non-conference opponents.

    The conference games have been nail-biters for the most part. Both Clemson and G. Tech should have beaten UNC who was #1 at the time. Hell, all Clemson had to do was make one stinking foul shot in regulation! All Tech had to do was get just one fair call from the refs in the last two minutes!

    No, the ACC isn't at their best but they are far from being "bad."

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by HumboldtDevil View Post
    Anybody that thinks this league can get 5 or 6 bids this season is crazy. The ACC just isn't that good this year. There are talented teams that are improving, but are they legitimately good? No.

    Clemson has already started a spiral that it'll have to pull itself out of. In addition to three recent ACC losses they lost at home to Charlotte (8-5 then, 13-6 now that they've gotten into A-10 play) right after the UNC game. Clemson actually played and beat some decent teams OOC for once, so they should get in at 8-8 in conference. There's no guarantee they won't tank completely, though.

    Maryland has shown in its last two games that it has the talent to make a run in the ACC and play its way into the tournament, but they do have to play their way in. The Terps weren't even on the bubble before UNC and still aren't in the tournament. They'll need to have a winning record in conference or possibly 8-8 with wins in the bigger games. A winning conference record means going at least 7-4 from here, but the Terps haven't been very good or very consistent this year.

    Miami had a good OOC record, but has come back down to earth. I don't think it'll do enough to get into the tournament. Like everyone besides Clemson, it'll need to have a winning record in the ACC, I think.Losing to Winthrop at home is noticeable, even with solid wins against VCU, Providence, Miss. St.

    Georgia Tech needs to go at least 10-6 in the ACC. They're playing much better, but are only 10-9 overall (3-3 ACC) with some bad OOC losses. And even at 10-6 GT will only be 17-12 entering the conference tournament. Don't expect GT to suddenly be good enough to go 7-3 in conference from this point.

    NC State hasn't even played as good as its 13-6 record and is 2-3 in conference. They have the pieces to make a run, but no PG at all. Another team that has to with 9+ in conference, but will they do it?

    VA, VT, BC, WF, FSU can be lumped because I'm tired of writing the same thing for every team. Looking at the league right now I think it isn't as bad as I thought because there are basically 10 even teams and two really good teams. These teams besides Duke and UNC aren't terrible, but none of them are clearly good right now. Clemson is the only school that could get away with 8-8. You could make an argument for Miami, but that's it. Every other team needs 9+ wins and have shown almost no sign that they'll be able to do it.

    NCAA Tournament prediction: Duke, UNC, Clemson (find a way to 8-8 guys).

    I barely have confidence in Clemson, so how can I expect anyone else to play well enough to make the tournament when they all have more to do?
    You seem to be neglecting that it's a down year across ALL of college basketball. The Big 12 is terrible. The Big 10 is terrible. The Big East is terrible. The PAC-10 is good. Yet somehow, we have the top RPI and second-best OOC record.

    No conference looks great after their best 3-4 teams. Every conference is in the same boat as the ACC, with teams with shaky resumes. That's why, when it all shakes out, we're going to get 5-6 teams.

    Duke and UNC are locks. That's the only certainty. But SOMEBODY is going to get 9 wins, and some other teams are going to get to 8 wins. Right now, I'd say the likely suspects are Clemson (3-3 now), Boston College (3-2 in conference and a good combination of inside scorers and guard play), and Miami (15 wins so far, solid RPI). If any of those teams stumble, it gets murkier. But if they DO stumble, someone else will emerge with a good conference record.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Clemson and Miami will see their RPI fall if they end up at 8-8. I don't know if it'll fall below 40, but it would almost certainly fall lower than the current numbers.

    FSU two years ago went 19-9,9-8 (with a 1st round ACCT loss) and was on the outside looking in. I believe their RPI was in the mid-40s. 20 wins is not the magic number it used to be with the expansion of number of games played - I believe most schools now play 30 in the regular season, not 27 as was previously the limit. Just last year FSU went 20-12 and didn't make it.

    Certainly marquee wins are not a requirement. But they're extremely helpful, particularly when trying to differentiate among teams that are looking pretty indistinguishable. That is especially the case for the teams with bad losses, which is almost all of them (BC to Robert Morris, FSU to Cleveland St and S Florida, GT to UNCG, Miami to Winthrop (with a v. weak non-con schedule - could hurt if they end up 8-8), Maryland to American and Delaware, NCSU to New Orleans and ECU (and the single worst win of anyone in the ACC - 50-43 over Presbyterian), VT to Penn St and Richmond. The teams UVA lost to are all decent, although the Xavier loss was ugly. Ditto Wake, replacing Xavier with Georgia, and they don't have an Arizona win on their record.

    Clemson is certainly "safest." But if they go 8-8 and finish 6th, behind 3 teams that somehow went 9-7, it could be very hard to take them. If those 9-7 teams are GT, NCSU, and FSU, the conference could be in real bid trouble. The ACC needs a team (or two) to go on an 8 or 9 win tear, or finish the season winning 8 or 9 of their last ten. If teams keep trading wins and losses, it's worry time.
    Their RPI won't fall that much, because nearly everybody in that neighborhood is going to collect losses in conference.

    As for the Florida State example, that's an anomaly. I believe it is the only team a team with that many wins and a .500 record in ACC play hasn't made the tournament.

    As for your scenario of Clemson going 8-8 in conference and finishing 6th, I don't think that happens. I'll be surprised if 5 teams are better than 8-8 this year. If NCSU gets to 8-8, with their RPI in the 40s/50s, they're probably in.

    The 20-win, 8-8 record thing is a virtual lock. The list of ACC teams who haven't made it with those credentials is REALLY short (if existent at all).

    And while the conference lacks "marquee" wins, we have the best conference RPI, and the 2nd-best OOC record. That suggests to me that while it's a down year in the ACC, it's a down year for everybody.

    Instead of looking at how bad the ACC teams are, it might be a good exercise to look at how bad the teams in the other conferences are as well.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surfsideron View Post
    I think they will get in at least 5 teams.

    Georgia Tech, if they finish 8-8 will definately get a bid. Someone mentioned their non-conference schedule but hey, they almost beat Indiana at Indiana and they had a solid chance to beat Kansas, losing by only 5. Of course we know how close they came to beating UNC.

    If the Big 10 is being touted to get 5-6 tams then the ACC should get 10 teams! The Big 10 is the worst conference in the country as the ACC proved in the Challenge.

    I like Duke, UNC, G. Tech, Clemson and Maryland with an outside chance for FSU which is a much better team than what they appear.
    If GT finishes 8-8 in the ACC they'll be 15-14 overall entering the ACC Tournament w/ losses to Greensboro and Winthrop. Doesn't matter how close you come against good teams if you can't even beat the bad teams. They'll need to win at least 10 in the ACC or do something dramatic in the ACC Tourney.

    While the Big 10 may not be very good they do have three locks (Wisconsin, Indiana, and MSU), which is more than the ACC does, and has two more teams (OSU, Purdue) that are playing their way in by winning conference games. In the ACC you have two locks, a couple teams playing their way out (Clemson, Miami), and a bunch of teams that need to play their way in, but have shown no sign they will. Any tournament-worthy team in the ACC has to be able to win games against teams 3-12 in conference. If they can't do that then how could you possibly call them a tournament team?

    Yeah, the Big 10 has some bad teams, but at least there are a couple teams that are in the middle of the pack that have separated themselves a bit.

    As of now the ACC is a three-bid league at most.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    You seem to be neglecting that it's a down year across ALL of college basketball. The Big 12 is terrible. The Big 10 is terrible. The Big East is terrible. The PAC-10 is good. Yet somehow, we have the top RPI and second-best OOC record.

    No conference looks great after their best 3-4 teams. Every conference is in the same boat as the ACC, with teams with shaky resumes. That's why, when it all shakes out, we're going to get 5-6 teams.

    Duke and UNC are locks. That's the only certainty. But SOMEBODY is going to get 9 wins, and some other teams are going to get to 8 wins. Right now, I'd say the likely suspects are Clemson (3-3 now), Boston College (3-2 in conference and a good combination of inside scorers and guard play), and Miami (15 wins so far, solid RPI). If any of those teams stumble, it gets murkier. But if they DO stumble, someone else will emerge with a good conference record.
    You can look at the RPI and other conferences as a whole, but the fact of the matter is that individual teams make the tournament and every other power conference has more teams in position to make the tournament than the ACC does. Here are teams that have a decent shot - if they don't finish below .500 or keep up current conference form - at the NCAA Tournament from the big boy conferences:

    Big 12 - Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M (6)

    Big East - Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia (9)

    Big Ten - Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin (5)

    Pac-10 - Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington St. (7)

    SEC - Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi St. (6)

    ACC - Duke, Miami, North Carolina, Clemson (4)

    So that is 37 power conference schools, six of which will presumably get automatic berths by winning their conference tournament. That means you've got 31 power conference teams for 34 at large spots. But, remember, mid-majors have been getting tons of at-large spots lately, so it is safe to assume at least 3-5 at-large spots will go to mid-majors. So, in that case, you could have 32 of these teams vying for maybe 26-28 spots.

    Looking at potential at-large recipients from smaller conferences you've got:

    VCU and George Mason (Colonial); Memphis, Houston, Tulane, and UAB (USA); Kent St., Akron, and Ohio (MAC); Drake, Illinois St., and Creighton (MVC); UNLV, BYU, and San Diego St. (Mtn. West); Gonzaga and St. Mary's (West Coast); Utah St. and Boise St. (WAC)

    In any of these conferences you're in good shape for an at-large if the regular-season champion doesn't win the conference tournament. And what if some crappy team surprises everybody? What if Memphis doesn't win the conference tourney or something like that?

    Seriously, if you compared what these teams have done in relation to what everyone in the ACC has done outside of Duke, UNC, and Clemson, then there's no way you can say with any confidence that the ACC is seriously a 5-6 bid league right now. Could this change? Yes. But Clemson and Miami are the only ACC schools on the bubble that could go 8-8 and make the tournament. Even then Miami might be in trouble. And of the other teams that have to better than 8-8, who has shown that they might actually do it? Maryland is 2-3 w/ six road games left. State, Wake, FSU, Virginia, and Miami are all 2-3 in conference and have to have a winning record in conference from here on out just to get to .500. VT is 3-3, but isn't a tourney team. BC is 12-6, 3-2, but isn't a tourney team yet and just lost to VT at home.

    In every other power conference there are teams that have solid OOC results and winning conference records. Duke and Carolina are the only two ACC schools that can make that same claim. Everybody else has done too poorly OOC or is doing too poorly in coinference, or just needs to go .500 in the ACC and is struggling to do that.

    Face it, if the ACC is gonna have more than 2 or 3 bids somebody is gonna have to step up. As of now nobody has distanced itself from the pack (other than the obvious) and the one other team (BC) with a winning record has three games against UNC/Duke and six road games left.

    Things aren't looking good for the ACC.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by patentgeek View Post
    I'm not sure it's quite that formulaic, although I could be wrong. I'm thinking, for example, of Florida State in 2006 - they finished 19-9 overall, 9-7 in the conference (although with an RPI of around 60) and stayed home. Maryland that year went 8-8 in the conference, 19-12 overall, with an RPI in the high 40s, and stayed home. I realize that these don't fit your exact scenario, but they're not far off. And don't forget that Fla. State beat Duke that year.

    My feeling is that the "8-8 in the ACC gets you in" guideline depends a lot on the perceived strength of the conference. Because there aren't a lot of OOC marquee wins, there is a perception that the ACC is down somewhat irrespective of what the RPI might say. I also think that sometimes the committee uses conference tournaments as a tool to sort out teams - to use the example above, Fla St lost to a 12-place Wake team in the first round of the ACC tournament that year, which was probably their death knell.

    I also think that if, as it looks like may happen, there are 4-5 teams at the 8-8 or 7-9 range, they will be very difficult for the committee to sort out, and it's been my sense that they often don't try - unless one or two of those teams stand out (by head-to-head wins, marquee wins, strength of schedule, or conference tournament performance), the committee seems to prefer to just leave all of them at home.
    how about fsu last year? rpi 41, 20-12 overall and 7-9 in the acc, they actually won their first round acct game and they also beat duke AND nc florida. they got stuffed with the nit. i can't see too many teams in the middle of the acc mishmosh having a better profile than that.

    also, uva a few years ago got left out with a 9-7 record in the acc. i think that with an unbalanced schedule, 9-7 doesn't mean what it used to mean.

  15. #55
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    the basis of this thread isn't looking that outlandlish 2 weeks later...

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Instead of looking at how bad the ACC teams are, it might be a good exercise to look at how bad the teams in the other conferences are as well.
    I don't think the "other 10" ACC teams are bad. On the contrary, the ACC's problem this year is the lack of bad teams. It's the only conference in the country where you could make a plausible argument for why each team could make the NCAA tournament. Oregon State is terrible. Nebraska and Colorado are not good. South Carolina and LSU stink. The Big East has several cellar dwellers (although Rutgers has been frisky lately - right after me calling them awful). And the Big 10 has Northwestern and Michigan. Those teams are all going to have very, very bad conference records. If any one of them gets 5 conference wins it's a huge accomplishment. That's free wins for the rest of the conference, most importantly for the bubble-ish teams looking for extra wins.

    I really believe the gap between 4 and 12 in the ACC is negligible, and Clemson is trying hard to convince me there's not much gap between 3 and 4 either. I couldn't pick a single 12 loss team from that group - if forced, I'd say NCSU and Wake are the most likely candidates, but they're also both capable of at least 7 wins.

    What the other conferences have is separation, with a very clearly defined bottom (and a top larger than 2). Right now the ACC is clumped together, both in conference record, but more importantly in overall record - we have 8 teams with 5-8 losses. The Big East has 6. The Pac-10 has 6. The Big 10 has 3. The Big 12 has 5. And the SEC has 6. So the ACC's problem is too many teams that are above average to good, with none that are bad.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  17. #57
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    By the way, Bilas says there will be 11 ACC teams in the post-season. I don't have Insider, so I can't tell who he leaves out, but I find it hard to disagree with the premise. I just hope there are fewer than 7 in the NIT.

    And for the record, I do believe that the ACC teams are better than their counterparts in the middle of other conferences (Pac-10 excluded). I would likely be willing to wager that the 12th place team in the ACC could take one of the "last four in" on a neutral court, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. I hope I'm wrong, and that the committee realizes how good the ACC was as a conference, and how there are zero free wins like those available in other conferences. Of course, that argument would have been easier to make without the non-conference losses to teams like ECU, Robert Morris, American, UNCG, South Florida, Richmond, etc.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Earth
    I can't remember the last time a power conference got less than 33% of its teams in the NCAAs. The ACC had 3/9 several times when we didn't have an ACC representative on the selection committee, but I think Craig Littlepage (UVA) is still on. Between that and being the RPI #1 conference, I would expect the ACC to get 4 bids even if the 4th is a stretch to be a 12 or 13 seed. Who actually will finish 8-8 or better and who would get selected out of that group is a mystery at this point. The historical trend of a 13 loss ceiling for at-large teams probably will keep GT, FSU, and Maryland out of the equation at this point.

  19. #59

    Foget Who's In, Who's Out?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    True, that conferences don't get bids--after the automatic one--in a technical sense. But trust me, the selection knows darn well how many bids each conference has and that does make a difference in the final picks.

    Given the fact that there are relatively few non-conference games left, the ACC will continue to have a high RPI and this also will boost teams on the proverbial bubble.

    I would be astonished to see the ACC with 3 bids.

    There's a lot of basketball to be played. Last year Boston College lost to Vermont, Virginia lost to App State, Virginia Tech lost to Western Michigan and Marshall. Pretty bad loses. Yet all three of these teams not only made the NCAAs, they all finished ahead of Duke in the ACC Regular season and lasted longer in the NCAAs.

    As usual Jim is right in saying there is a whole lot of regular season basketball left to be played. We aren't at the mid season point in the conferences yet, and the ACC tourney has yet to be played. Every season you have teams that look pretty good at this point go into a downward spiral and teams that look average at best get hot. It's way to early to say who will get in and who won't. But it's interesting to speculate of course.

    Me thinks one could go conference by conference and pick teams that figure to get in and figure teams that won't. With only 65 tickets to the prom someone is going to be sitting at home watching American Idol. Some of the "bad" losses for ACC teams may end up coming from a smaller conference champion. (Or of course maybe not.) So those losses might not look as bad come selection Sunday. And as we all know the committee likes to reward teams that are "hot" and have won X number of their last Y games. (Despite early season losses.) You could fill out 100 brackets right now as to what teams will make the field and probably all of them would be off, especially when it comes to how high a seed some schools get. Someone repost on this thread in a month and THEN we have a MUCH better idea of who might go to the NCAA's / NIT and who's looking ahead to next season.


    On a site note thanks DBR for the birthday wishes this morning. I'm glad they moved the UNC vs. Duke game into early February. There were a few years where whether I had a happy birthday was contingent on the outcome of a game I had no control over. Go to hell Carolina, go to hell!

  20. #60
    Pomeroy's predictions have the league finishing like this:

    Duke 14-2
    UNC 12-4
    Clemson 10-6
    Maryland 8-8
    VaTech 8-8
    Miami 7-9
    GaTech 7-9
    BC 7-9
    FSU 6-10
    Wake 6-10
    UVa 5-11
    State 5-11

    I think that scenario would leave us with only 3 locks (Duke, UNC, Clemson) and probably 5 teams on the bubble.

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