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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    How many NCAAT bids for the ACC?

    after listening to the nc st thrashing today, i have to admit that the acc is looking more and more like a 3 bid league. unc is all but a lock for a 1 seed and duke probably can go 7-9 and still get in given the ooc wins. i'm assuming that clemson's bad loss this week was a blip and they will learn to hit some fts and slide in. other than that, i don't think there is a single team in the acc that looks like a tournament team. here's what i see:

    nc st -- after today forget about it. they have an rpi of 59, horrible losses to new orleans and east carolina, the loss today that the whole nation saw and at most 1 win against an ncaat team (villanova). hello nit.
    bc -- an rpi of 108, a horrible loss to robert morris and 1 win against an ncaat team (rhode island).
    virginia -- an rpi of 73, no horrible losses to bad teams but the seton hall one wasn't very good and giving up 61 to xavier in the first half is damaging and 1 win against an ncaat team (arizona).
    fsu -- an rpi of 36, bad losses to cleveland st and south florida and maybe 1 win against an ncaat team (florida).
    maryland -- an rpi of 139, bad losses to american and ohio and no wins against ncaat teams.
    miami -- an rpi of 45, no bad losses (winthrop isn't a bad one) and maybe 2 wins against ncaat teams (providence and miss st).
    wake forest -- an rpi of 56, bad losses to charlotte and georgia and maybe 1 win against an ncaat team (byu)

    ga tech and va are so far from a bid it's not even worth summarizing them.

    i don't think any of the above teams would get a bid right now. miami probably is the closest because of their lack of bad losses. i think having so many bad losses is going to hurt the acc this year and as of right now, it is a 3 bid league with miami on the bubble.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    You think no one in the ACC other than UNC, Duke and Clemson is going to go to the NCAA tournament?

    You're overreacting like crazy to one pathetic performance by State. Are you aware that the ACC is the top conference in the RPI right now?

  3. #3
    Miami is a sure thing at 14-1. Beyond hilarious that they aren't in the top 25.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    I think Miami will get in but they are far from a sure thing.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    You think no one in the ACC other than UNC, Duke and Clemson is going to go to the NCAA tournament?

    You're overreacting like crazy to one pathetic performance by State. Are you aware that the ACC is the top conference in the RPI right now?
    Conferences don't get bids, teams do, and aside from UNC, Duke, Clemson and Miami, it's hard to find a team in the ACC that's in good position to earn a bid. And even those teams still have to have decent conference records first, though I expect that they will.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    You think no one in the ACC other than UNC, Duke and Clemson is going to go to the NCAA tournament?

    You're overreacting like crazy to one pathetic performance by State. Are you aware that the ACC is the top conference in the RPI right now?
    i'm not overreacting to the nc st loss. as previously noted, conferences don't get bids -- teams do. the acc might not have any truly horrible teams like most other conferences do but the acc also is going to have a very miserable selection sunday unless some of its teams wake up very soon. miami probably would get in now but it by no means is a lock and miami very easily could pull a clemson 2007. which of these teams look like ncaat teams to you?

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    I'm well aware that teams get bids, but there is a reason that the ACC is the number 1 conference in the computer numbers right now - because it has good teams.

    I don't know which of Miami, Boston College, FSU, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech are going to be NCAA tournament teams. What I do know is that at least one of these teams will be in the NCAA tournament, and more likely two or three. Predicting that all nine of these teams are going to miss the NCAAs is just setting yourself up to look very foolish.

    If you really want to force me to guess, I would say that Miami and Boston College will be NCAA teams, and maybe FSU too, depending on if/when they get their injured frontcourt back - I don't know the details of that situation.

  8. 5 or 6 atleast

    When all is said and done BC or Virginia will definitely get in. I can't see Sean Singletary letting his team miss out... perhaps the same with Rice. those are two spectacular guards with decent talent around them. Maybe not both, but one or the other will make it. That makes it Duke, UNC, Clemson (though history says otherwise), Miami, and Virginia/BC (maybe both).

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    True, that conferences don't get bids--after the automatic one--in a technical sense. But trust me, the selection knows darn well how many bids each conference has and that does make a difference in the final picks.

    Given the fact that there are relatively few non-conference games left, the ACC will continue to have a high RPI and this also will boost teams on the proverbial bubble.

    I would be astonished to see the ACC with 3 bids.

    There's a lot of basketball to be played. Last year Boston College lost to Vermont, Virginia lost to App State, Virginia Tech lost to Western Michigan and Marshall. Pretty bad loses. Yet all three of these teams not only made the NCAAs, they all finished ahead of Duke in the ACC Regular season and lasted longer in the NCAAs.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I'm well aware that teams get bids, but there is a reason that the ACC is the number 1 conference in the computer numbers right now - because it has good teams.

    I don't know which of Miami, Boston College, FSU, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech are going to be NCAA tournament teams. What I do know is that at least one of these teams will be in the NCAA tournament, and more likely two or three. Predicting that all nine of these teams are going to miss the NCAAs is just setting yourself up to look very foolish.

    If you really want to force me to guess, I would say that Miami and Boston College will be NCAA teams, and maybe FSU too, depending on if/when they get their injured frontcourt back - I don't know the details of that situation.
    where did i predict 3 bids? i expressly stated that unless some of these teams get with it soon, the acc very well could be looking at 3 bids. that's hardly predicting it. pointing to the league rpi as a reason why the acc won't only get 3 bids actually makes you look foolish. a league with 2 or 3 very good teams and then 9 or 10 mediocre teams is going to have a higher rpi than a league with 2 or 3 good teams 7 or 8 mediocre ones and 1 or 2 horrible teams. the acc doesn't have any horrible teams like an oregon st or a rutgers to pull the rpi down but it does have a whole mess of mediocre teams that have done their best so far to damage their selection sunday resume.

    i have no idea why you are predicting that bc will be in. their rpi, at 108, is getting pretty close to horrific, 5 of their wins were against teams with an rpi of 227 or higher, one of their losses was on national tv and an absolute bludgeoning at home by kansas and they do have a loss to robert morris. beating rhode island isn't going to get them in. i also will note that last year they were 10-6 in the acc, didn't get destroyed at home on national tv and also didn't feast on the truly terrible teams for easy ooc wins.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Western North Carolina

    Four Bid

    I predicted three at the begining of the season, and I still think only 3 teams will warrant a bid, but the rest of the nation appears down, outside the Pac 10 (it actually hurt me physically to write that). So I am sure that 4 will get in. Five may, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    UNC, Duke, and Clemson are virtual locks. I gotta think UVA will get in. I think their familiarity with the other conference teams will help them. They excelled in conference play last year, and I expect that to continue despite their losses in personell.

    BC, UMD, and VT are out, or soon will be. WFU is a wasteland. Miami is a paper tiger, having played nobody. I think they are arround .500 in the conf. Ga Tech is rapidly playing their way out. Today all but sealed NCSU's fate. That will leave a bad taste in the selection committee's mouth. FSU will collapse at some point.

    Miami could be the fifth team, if they surpass my expectations.

    Despite our lofty conf RPI I don't think the ACC will load up on bids. The RPI is helped tremendously by UNC, and it will hurt the rest of the league if they only lose 1 game (to us in CIS) or go undefeated. That makes the rest of the conf look bad if one team runs off with the regular season. Also, FSU, Miami, and a few others have suspect RPIs. They haven't played anybody, but at least they have beaten most of the Weak Sisters of Mercy that they were brave enough to schedule. Once teams start taking conf lumps, that RPI will dip.

    Also, I knew the ACC was in trouble last year when EVERY single team was a dissappointment. I can't remember if anyone survived the first weekend other than UNC, and that ^$%^$%^$%^$%ie bomb they laid vs G Town is fresh in everyone's mind. Given how badly the league teams performed last year in the tourney, I have to believe this year's selection committee holds that against us.

    If few mid majors emerge, ie a few mid majors each run away with their conf races, then a few more ACC squads sneak in. But I doubt it.

    Patrick Yates

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    You said "As of right now, the ACC is a 3 bid league." And "The ACC is looking more and more like a 3 bid league." Neither of these statements are reasonable at all.

    Pointing out the conference's RPI isn't an end-all argument, but it certainly is a legitimate piece of evidence. You're being a little extremist right now.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    You said "As of right now, the ACC is a 3 bid league." And "The ACC is looking more and more like a 3 bid league." Neither of these statements are reasonable at all.

    Pointing out the conference's RPI isn't an end-all argument, but it certainly is a legitimate piece of evidence. You're being a little extremist right now.
    again, where did i predict that in march the acc will get 3 bids? the title of the thread even had a question mark in it.

    the league rpi is COMPLETELY irrelevant. as has been pointed out now by 3 people, the committee looks at TEAMS not the conference. even at the team level, the rpi is just 1 of a myriad of factors the committee looks at. this isn't rocket science so i don't know why you are having a hard time understanding that the committee does not care what the conference rpi is. if you still think that it does, please post a link supporting that incorrect claim. there's nothing extremist recognizing that the acc is looking pretty mediocre halfway through the season -- and this is after last year's thud in the ncaat.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by hondoheel View Post
    Miami is a sure thing at 14-1. Beyond hilarious that they aren't in the top 25.
    A la Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. Clemson started last year 18 or 17-0 and didn't make it. Miami looks like they're on the right track but their schedule hasn't been too tough and they have a long ways to go.

    As of right now, I would bet that UNC, Duke and Clemson will make it. I'm still a little iffy on Clemson after they reiterated their inconsistencies of last year by playing UNC to the buzzer (probably should have won the game) but then losing to Charlotte at home the very next game.

    UVA can make it but I wouldn't put them today. And I agree with what some of the other people said, I think the committee will see the ACC for what it is; a very young league right now. I don't think we're going to get extra bids just because we're the ACC. The beauty of it all is that we get to see it unfold over the next 2 months.

  15. #15
    Well, right now Clemson is going into their second OT with FSU. If they lose this game it will be like deja-vu (all over again) for their fans after last year.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Wow.

    You do realize it's only the first week of ACC play, right?

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by dukie8 View Post
    again, where did i predict that in march the acc will get 3 bids? the title of the thread even had a question mark in it.

    the league rpi is COMPLETELY irrelevant. as has been pointed out now by 3 people, the committee looks at TEAMS not the conference. even at the team level, the rpi is just 1 of a myriad of factors the committee looks at. this isn't rocket science so i don't know why you are having a hard time understanding that the committee does not care what the conference rpi is. if you still think that it does, please post a link supporting that incorrect claim. there's nothing extremist recognizing that the acc is looking pretty mediocre halfway through the season -- and this is after last year's thud in the ncaat.
    Dukie8,

    It is not arguing in good faith to suggest things might happen (3 bids), back up your suggestion with your arguments, and then get angry and dismissive of people who call you on it by saying "I never predicted that!" You are using tiny semantics in an effort to make your point and are doing it in a very aggressive and abrasive manner, in my opinion.

    I urge you to make your points with less venom. I also urge you to understand that when people disagree with you, they are not your enemy. They are merely attempting to have a discussion -- a process that requires cooperation and understanding on both sides.

    Thanks.

    FWIW, I agree that the ACC is quite weak and there appear to be few good teams in the league... but then again that appears to be the case with most of the other power conferences. The bottom line for the NCAA Selection Committee is finding 65 teams to fill the field. Someone has to win each ACC game. Unless you think Duke, UNC, and Clemson win all their games against the other teams in the league (so unlikely as to be laughable) there will be a couple teams that find their way to 8-8 or 9-7. Those teams will likely get NCAA bids and I think the ACC will end up with 4 or, more likely, 5 NCAA bids on selection Sunday. To me, it is just a matter of math... even if the rest of the conference appears to suck at times.

    --Jason "by the way, this whole thread makes me think Virginia is gonna beat Duke tonight-- yikes!!" Evans

  18. #18

    If the ACC...

    only gets 3 bids, the Big 10 should only get its tournament winner.

  19. #19

    Previous tournament success or failure

    It's a little hard for me to believe the that selection committee holds previous tournament failure against an entire conference. As a league, the Big 10 seems to bomb on a fairly consistent basis but almost always manages to get 4-6 teams in each year. That thinking could possibly come into play for a low to mid-major, but less likely for a conference like the ACC.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by Buckeye Devil View Post
    It's a little hard for me to believe the that selection committee holds previous tournament failure against an entire conference. As a league, the Big 10 seems to bomb on a fairly consistent basis but almost always manages to get 4-6 teams in each year. That thinking could possibly come into play for a low to mid-major, but less likely for a conference like the ACC.
    The committee has one job-- create the best 65-team field it can based on how teams played this year (and how they are playing at the end of the season). While I think it might be possible that the committee would give a tiny bit of weight to a truly horrid tournament history for a conference (for example, I think there were a couple years in a row recently where the Big Ten went like 1-6 or so in the Tourney -- just an embarrassing record), the ACC is not anywhere near that level of tournament futility.

    I think the performance of the conference last year (we went 7-7, a bad record for the ACC but hardly an abject failure) will have no bearing at all upon NCAA selections this season. I am fairly sure it is not even allowed to be discussed during the deliberations on each team.

    --Jason "I'm of the belief that the selection process is a lot less nefarious and sneaky than others think" Evans

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