after listening to the nc st thrashing today, i have to admit that the acc is looking more and more like a 3 bid league. unc is all but a lock for a 1 seed and duke probably can go 7-9 and still get in given the ooc wins. i'm assuming that clemson's bad loss this week was a blip and they will learn to hit some fts and slide in. other than that, i don't think there is a single team in the acc that looks like a tournament team. here's what i see:
nc st -- after today forget about it. they have an rpi of 59, horrible losses to new orleans and east carolina, the loss today that the whole nation saw and at most 1 win against an ncaat team (villanova). hello nit.
bc -- an rpi of 108, a horrible loss to robert morris and 1 win against an ncaat team (rhode island).
virginia -- an rpi of 73, no horrible losses to bad teams but the seton hall one wasn't very good and giving up 61 to xavier in the first half is damaging and 1 win against an ncaat team (arizona).
fsu -- an rpi of 36, bad losses to cleveland st and south florida and maybe 1 win against an ncaat team (florida).
maryland -- an rpi of 139, bad losses to american and ohio and no wins against ncaat teams.
miami -- an rpi of 45, no bad losses (winthrop isn't a bad one) and maybe 2 wins against ncaat teams (providence and miss st).
wake forest -- an rpi of 56, bad losses to charlotte and georgia and maybe 1 win against an ncaat team (byu)
ga tech and va are so far from a bid it's not even worth summarizing them.
i don't think any of the above teams would get a bid right now. miami probably is the closest because of their lack of bad losses. i think having so many bad losses is going to hurt the acc this year and as of right now, it is a 3 bid league with miami on the bubble.
You think no one in the ACC other than UNC, Duke and Clemson is going to go to the NCAA tournament?
You're overreacting like crazy to one pathetic performance by State. Are you aware that the ACC is the top conference in the RPI right now?
Miami is a sure thing at 14-1. Beyond hilarious that they aren't in the top 25.
I think Miami will get in but they are far from a sure thing.
I'm well aware that teams get bids, but there is a reason that the ACC is the number 1 conference in the computer numbers right now - because it has good teams.
I don't know which of Miami, Boston College, FSU, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech are going to be NCAA tournament teams. What I do know is that at least one of these teams will be in the NCAA tournament, and more likely two or three. Predicting that all nine of these teams are going to miss the NCAAs is just setting yourself up to look very foolish.
If you really want to force me to guess, I would say that Miami and Boston College will be NCAA teams, and maybe FSU too, depending on if/when they get their injured frontcourt back - I don't know the details of that situation.
When all is said and done BC or Virginia will definitely get in. I can't see Sean Singletary letting his team miss out... perhaps the same with Rice. those are two spectacular guards with decent talent around them. Maybe not both, but one or the other will make it. That makes it Duke, UNC, Clemson (though history says otherwise), Miami, and Virginia/BC (maybe both).
True, that conferences don't get bids--after the automatic one--in a technical sense. But trust me, the selection knows darn well how many bids each conference has and that does make a difference in the final picks.
Given the fact that there are relatively few non-conference games left, the ACC will continue to have a high RPI and this also will boost teams on the proverbial bubble.
I would be astonished to see the ACC with 3 bids.
There's a lot of basketball to be played. Last year Boston College lost to Vermont, Virginia lost to App State, Virginia Tech lost to Western Michigan and Marshall. Pretty bad loses. Yet all three of these teams not only made the NCAAs, they all finished ahead of Duke in the ACC Regular season and lasted longer in the NCAAs.
i have no idea why you are predicting that bc will be in. their rpi, at 108, is getting pretty close to horrific, 5 of their wins were against teams with an rpi of 227 or higher, one of their losses was on national tv and an absolute bludgeoning at home by kansas and they do have a loss to robert morris. beating rhode island isn't going to get them in. i also will note that last year they were 10-6 in the acc, didn't get destroyed at home on national tv and also didn't feast on the truly terrible teams for easy ooc wins.
I predicted three at the begining of the season, and I still think only 3 teams will warrant a bid, but the rest of the nation appears down, outside the Pac 10 (it actually hurt me physically to write that). So I am sure that 4 will get in. Five may, but I wouldn't bet on it.
UNC, Duke, and Clemson are virtual locks. I gotta think UVA will get in. I think their familiarity with the other conference teams will help them. They excelled in conference play last year, and I expect that to continue despite their losses in personell.
BC, UMD, and VT are out, or soon will be. WFU is a wasteland. Miami is a paper tiger, having played nobody. I think they are arround .500 in the conf. Ga Tech is rapidly playing their way out. Today all but sealed NCSU's fate. That will leave a bad taste in the selection committee's mouth. FSU will collapse at some point.
Miami could be the fifth team, if they surpass my expectations.
Despite our lofty conf RPI I don't think the ACC will load up on bids. The RPI is helped tremendously by UNC, and it will hurt the rest of the league if they only lose 1 game (to us in CIS) or go undefeated. That makes the rest of the conf look bad if one team runs off with the regular season. Also, FSU, Miami, and a few others have suspect RPIs. They haven't played anybody, but at least they have beaten most of the Weak Sisters of Mercy that they were brave enough to schedule. Once teams start taking conf lumps, that RPI will dip.
Also, I knew the ACC was in trouble last year when EVERY single team was a dissappointment. I can't remember if anyone survived the first weekend other than UNC, and that ^$%^$%^$%^$%ie bomb they laid vs G Town is fresh in everyone's mind. Given how badly the league teams performed last year in the tourney, I have to believe this year's selection committee holds that against us.
If few mid majors emerge, ie a few mid majors each run away with their conf races, then a few more ACC squads sneak in. But I doubt it.
You said "As of right now, the ACC is a 3 bid league." And "The ACC is looking more and more like a 3 bid league." Neither of these statements are reasonable at all.
Pointing out the conference's RPI isn't an end-all argument, but it certainly is a legitimate piece of evidence. You're being a little extremist right now.
the league rpi is COMPLETELY irrelevant. as has been pointed out now by 3 people, the committee looks at TEAMS not the conference. even at the team level, the rpi is just 1 of a myriad of factors the committee looks at. this isn't rocket science so i don't know why you are having a hard time understanding that the committee does not care what the conference rpi is. if you still think that it does, please post a link supporting that incorrect claim. there's nothing extremist recognizing that the acc is looking pretty mediocre halfway through the season -- and this is after last year's thud in the ncaat.
As of right now, I would bet that UNC, Duke and Clemson will make it. I'm still a little iffy on Clemson after they reiterated their inconsistencies of last year by playing UNC to the buzzer (probably should have won the game) but then losing to Charlotte at home the very next game.
UVA can make it but I wouldn't put them today. And I agree with what some of the other people said, I think the committee will see the ACC for what it is; a very young league right now. I don't think we're going to get extra bids just because we're the ACC. The beauty of it all is that we get to see it unfold over the next 2 months.
Well, right now Clemson is going into their second OT with FSU. If they lose this game it will be like deja-vu (all over again) for their fans after last year.
You do realize it's only the first week of ACC play, right?
It is not arguing in good faith to suggest things might happen (3 bids), back up your suggestion with your arguments, and then get angry and dismissive of people who call you on it by saying "I never predicted that!" You are using tiny semantics in an effort to make your point and are doing it in a very aggressive and abrasive manner, in my opinion.
I urge you to make your points with less venom. I also urge you to understand that when people disagree with you, they are not your enemy. They are merely attempting to have a discussion -- a process that requires cooperation and understanding on both sides.
FWIW, I agree that the ACC is quite weak and there appear to be few good teams in the league... but then again that appears to be the case with most of the other power conferences. The bottom line for the NCAA Selection Committee is finding 65 teams to fill the field. Someone has to win each ACC game. Unless you think Duke, UNC, and Clemson win all their games against the other teams in the league (so unlikely as to be laughable) there will be a couple teams that find their way to 8-8 or 9-7. Those teams will likely get NCAA bids and I think the ACC will end up with 4 or, more likely, 5 NCAA bids on selection Sunday. To me, it is just a matter of math... even if the rest of the conference appears to suck at times.
--Jason "by the way, this whole thread makes me think Virginia is gonna beat Duke tonight-- yikes!!" Evans
only gets 3 bids, the Big 10 should only get its tournament winner.
It's a little hard for me to believe the that selection committee holds previous tournament failure against an entire conference. As a league, the Big 10 seems to bomb on a fairly consistent basis but almost always manages to get 4-6 teams in each year. That thinking could possibly come into play for a low to mid-major, but less likely for a conference like the ACC.
I think the performance of the conference last year (we went 7-7, a bad record for the ACC but hardly an abject failure) will have no bearing at all upon NCAA selections this season. I am fairly sure it is not even allowed to be discussed during the deliberations on each team.
--Jason "I'm of the belief that the selection process is a lot less nefarious and sneaky than others think" Evans