Originally Posted by
HumboldtDevil
Pretty solid analysis, but without saying anything others aren't already saying. If Duke shoots well it could very easily make the Final Four, though.
He didn't mention Duke's defense, which is key in March. He also stuck with the generic "if the shots fall" theory. Yes, if Duke makes a ton of shots, especially from the outside, it'll go far in March. The real key as the Devils get into conference play is creating easy shots. And, of course, finishing off those easy shots. There were times when Duke got into the lane against Pitt and just didn't finish. Henderson missed a dunk, but that would have been an amazing play. I'm thinking more of Henderson taking it too far in on the last possession of regulation and getting into an area where he couldn't shoot an open pull-up and was too far away to just drop it in or use the glass. Singler missed a gimme with a few minutes left and Henderson failed to pass the ball to Singler three times on the curl play we ran to perfection a couple times in the opening half. Those are the things Duke needs to really take care of to win late in March.
The Pitt game is a perfect example of the kind of game that Duke will need to win at some point in the NCAA Tourney if it wants to be in the Final Four. Poor shooting from deep, missed a bunch of free throws, some foul trouble, odd officiating, etc. And between Henderson and Singler, two guys that will have the ball a lot in the tourney, the Devils gave away 10-12 points on some basic plays mentioned above. Think about that. As bad as Duke played it could've easily had another 10 points in regulation (FTs aside) of a game that went to OT.
I guess Bilas was trying to paint using broad strokes, but he might have convinced himself that Duke is still better than he is giving it credit for if he went into details too much.