VCU Scouting Report

[Jumbo]

It just so happens that I know a little bit about VCU. I wasn't thrilled to draw them (of the 11 seeds, I would have loved GW). They're a very good team. They're from a very good conference -- one that gives high seeds trouble every year, let alone what George Mason did last year. VCU cannot, and should not be underestimated.
Now, what to watch for:
-VCU has four guards who can really score, including Jamal Shuler off the bench.
-They try to pressure in the half-court and the full-court, aiming for an up-tempo game. Teams shoot a high-percentage against them, but that's because they trade that for forcing lots of turnovers. They want you to run down the floor and shoot the ball fairly quickly.
-The guards (Eric Maynor, B.A. Walker, Jamal Shuler and Jesse Pellot-Rosa) are quick, strong, fairly big (6'2", 6'2", 6'3", 6'4") and pressure the heck out of you. As we know that's been kind of a, uh, problem for Duke this year. Walker and Pellot-Rosa are a pair of seniors, and anyone who saw the CAA final against Mason knows how good Maynor is.
-Oh, they also shoot 40% from the arc and quite well from the line.
-That said, VCU has only one guy over 6'10" and he plays 10.5 mpg off the bench. Their two starting forwards are Michael Anderson, who is 6'7" but only 190 pounds. Will Fameni is a typical mid-major widebody (6'7", 240). But either way, this is an ideal team for Duke to counter with its 4-guard lineup. If we don't start that way, I'm certain Duke will play that way for much of the game. Henderson matches up with Anderson easily. I worry a little bit about McRoberts playing soft against Fameni and getting abused the way Jai Lewis and Will Thomas killed people for George Mason last year. Still, this is a nice matchup from that regard.
-VCU hasn't played the toughest OOC schedule in the world, and they've lost to most of their better opponents. They lost to Xavier, Toledo, Appalachian State and Bradley. They played no one from a BCS conference. Their only quality OOC wins are Houston and UAB, and that's a huge stretch. Of course, they dominated a very strong conference. Still, every time they've stepped outside the CAA against a good team, they lost.
-Bottom line is VCU has the potential to expose some of Duke's weaknesses. But I've got to bank on the idea that Coach K can fix this team's defensive problem with a full week of practice. If not, then it doesn't matter who Duke plays. Because my eyes weren't deceiving me -- this was an excellent defensive team earlier this year, and great defense is the ticket to victories. The potential is still there to play at that level.
-Then it just comes down to protecting the ball. That's scary, because Duke hasn't done a good job of it all year. If Duke limits its turnovers to 15 or fewer, everything should be good. If not, it'll be a close one.
-And, of course, the x-factor is Josh. If he brings it, VCU has no one who can match up with him. It's up to him, at this point.

[feldspar]

As always, Jumbo, you rock.

[Bob Green]

Jumbo - Thanks for the scouting report. It sounds like Josh McRoberts needs to put Duke on his back and prove he is "the man." Seeing as VCU appears to be vulnerable inside, it would be nice for McClure, Thomas, and Zoubek to produce some points when they are on the court. We need to pound the ball inside to exploit our size advantage and our five guards (Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson, Pocius) will need to outplay VCU's four guards.

I agree that Coach K will have the team ready to go on Thursday.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[mehmattski]

I appreciate the scouting report, however, the statistics contradict a couple of your points.

1) Though VCU shoots 40% from beyond the arc, they only take a 3 on 31% of their possessions, which is 234th in Division I.

2) Despite having a guard-heavy lineup and many scouting reports touting their tempo, they average 65 possessions each game, which is very low, and similar to Duke's average.

3) One thing you failed to mention was VCU's defense, which is very poor. They are particularly bad at defending the three, allowing a 35.8% rate (good news for Scheyer and Paulus).

I totally agree with your points that Coach K will be able to revamp the defense with a full week of practice, and that the four-guard lineup will be very effective against VCU, particularly on offense.

Certainly this is not a game to look past (as a fan- the coaches never would), but I think if Duke regains its defensive intensity this could be a solid confidence builder for our young team.

[mjones723]

Thanks for the report man. I don't think any Duke fan worth two craps is taking ANYONE lightly this year.

[dukediv2013]

Another great post Jumbo! VCU is an experienced team and will give Duke a heck of a game on Thursday. Hopefully K and the staff will use the ACC Tournament as motivation this week in practice. With Pocius and Henderson coming off the bench, Duke will have plenty of bodies against VCU. Hopefully Paulus and McBob will dominate and carry us into the 2nd round. I am really proud of this Duke team, we have the chance to do great things in this new season... we just need to treat it that way! 0-0! NEXT PLAY! GO DUKE!

[Jumbo]

I appreciate the scouting report, however, the statistics contradict a couple of your points.

1) Though VCU shoots 40% from beyond the arc, they only take a 3 on 31% of their possessions, which is 234th in Division I.

2) Despite having a guard-heavy lineup and many scouting reports touting their tempo, they average 65 possessions each game, which is very low, and similar to Duke's average.

3) One thing you failed to mention was VCU's defense, which is very poor. They are particularly bad at defending the three, allowing a 35.8% rate (good news for Scheyer and Paulus).

I totally agree with your points that Coach K will be able to revamp the defense with a full week of practice, and that the four-guard lineup will be very effective against VCU, particularly on offense.

Certainly this is not a game to look past (as a fan- the coaches never would), but I think if Duke regains its defensive intensity this could be a solid confidence builder for our young team.

I didn't overlook their D -- " Teams shoot a high-percentage against them, but that's because they trade that for forcing lots of turnovers."

I'm surprised to see their possessions per game numbers, because I know they like to force tempo. Then again, there are a number of grind-it-out teams in the CAA, and if they hold the ball, I guess it's not surprising to see VCU's possessions down a bit.

[dukie8]

jumbo, thanks for the report. it sounds like the keys will be to pound away inside with mcbob and to contain their guards. hopefully k is working the x's and o's right now figuring out how to do just that.

[Jumbo]

jumbo, thanks for the report. it sounds like the keys will be to pound away inside with mcbob and to contain their guards. hopefully k is working the x's and o's right now figuring out how to do just that.

I don't necessarily think we'll pound it in. Josh just isn't consistent enough scoring on the block, and that's not what we've done so well offensively. Duke's offense started clicking when it became guard oriented -- Josh can get some points off post-ups, but plenty just off movement and the offensive boards.
Duke, first and foremost has to take care of the ball. Do that, and fix the D, and everything else should take care of itself.

[mus074]

I am hopeful Greg will have a big game in front of the nearby Syracuse folks, a la his big game at MSG back in December. Player-specific home crowds have generally helped our players in the past, as a prior thread pointed out.

Hopefully our threes will go down against VCU, and if so, against the next team. I will take a sweet 16 and game performance against UCLA for sure. Beating UCLA or any wins after the first weekend would be just phenomenal experience for our young players.

[mehmattski]

I didn't overlook their D -- " Teams shoot a high-percentage against them, but that's because they trade that for forcing lots of turnovers."

I'm surprised to see their possessions per game numbers, because I know they like to force tempo. Then again, there are a number of grind-it-out teams in the CAA, and if they hold the ball, I guess it's not surprising to see VCU's possessions down a bit.

Sorry I missed that blurb- you're right, they do force a lot of turnovers, particularly in steals- does that suggest a "stuff the passing lane" type of defense? Would Duke be best served with the weave they've shown lately?

As for pace, it is true that VCU is third in their conference in pace, behind ODU and UNC-W. However the two games against ODU were above average (68 in their win at home) and average (65 in loss at ODU). And there are some outliers, such as the 82 possessions against Houston and the 59 against Albany. Regardless, their offense has shown it can be effective regardless of pace. It's their defense versus Duke's four-guard set that will be the biggest mis-match of this game, I feel.

[sue71, esq]

I was in the CAA for the last 3 years up until this year (this year I've only seen them once or twice on tv, now that I live out west, but they bring many of the same guys back and they don't appear that different even though they've got a new coach). VCU can definitely shoot lights out, and I personally saw several games where they shot 60-70% from behind the arc. Pellot-Rosa can be absolutely lethal with the 3 if he's on. Their defense can be pesky & quick. Once they find a team's weakness, they exploit all the way home it if you don't make adjustments.

Let's just say this wasn't my dream matchup for Duke.

BTW, Jim Corrigan (former Duke walk-on in the late 70s/early 80s) is the assoc. head coach at Old Dominion, so pull for them up in Buffalo- they've got Butler in the first round (5/12 game for the Midwest region)!

[Jumbo]

Excellent stuff, Sue. Thanks. Anyone overlooking this team is making a big, big mistake.

[CMS2478]

I was reading some of the VCU message boards and the are talking about DBR and saying how we are already overlooking them and are talking about the 2nd round already etc. I am not overlooking anybody.......especially the way our season has gone.

[hurleyfor3]

I am hopeful Greg will have a big game in front of the nearby Syracuse folks, a la his big game at MSG back in December. Player-specific home crowds have generally helped our players in the past, as a prior thread pointed out.

This just occurred to me: Buffalo is the Land of Laettner. Christian NEEDS to be in the building.

[DukeBlood]

I was reading some of the VCU message boards and the are talking about DBR and saying how we are already overlooking them and are talking about the 2nd round already etc. I am not overlooking anybody.......especially the way our season has gone.

I seen that. They also qouted many of us.. Qouted me when i said "They have 2 6'7 forward(IF McRoberts plays like he does against State he should dominate)". Not sure why they would post that, I wasnt being Homerish and i wanst overlooking th em.

[RIDukie]

I don't necessarily think we'll pound it in. Josh just isn't consistent enough scoring on the block, and that's not what we've done so well offensively. Duke's offense started clicking when it became guard oriented -- Josh can get some points off post-ups, but plenty just off movement and the offensive boards.
Duke, first and foremost has to take care of the ball. Do that, and fix the D, and everything else should take care of itself.

Given their lack of size, I wonder if Z might be useful to Duke in this game - more than just spelling Josh in the first half. If VCU's tallest player is 6'7" then Z has a 4 - 5 inch height advantage. If K were to play Z and Josh together it might require VCU's big man to play Z and allow Josh to match up against a smaller, and lighter player. Perhpas this would allow both Josh and Z to use their height advantage. It also would mean that Josh wouldn't have to defend the VCU wide-body and take a physical beating.

Do we want to run with these guys if that's VCU's preference and strength? Or, do we want to play an half-court game?


RIDukie

[kelly]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned these... but Jeff Capel coached VCU 2002-2006, and Gerald Henderson's father attended VCU. Quite a bit of Duke connection there.

[accfanfrom1970]

Gerald Henderson's dad's Jersey was retired by VCU and is hanging in the Siegel Center, VCU's home court....

Shouldn't overlook VCU...our biggest problem this year has been turnovers, and VCU has the guards and plays the style of ballgame that forces turnovers. We won't be able to get the ball inside if we can't get it over 1/2 court and get into our offense. Which teams guards take control will determine who wins....

[Chard]

Help me out here,folks. Wasn't this a concern last year with GW? Paulus and McRoberts handled that pretty well.

Being a 6 seed is making the early part of the tournament very interesting. I'm sure Duke is NOT overlooking this game. That is all I'm concerned about right now. I've seen some mentioning of what comes after but doesn't everyone do that? It is the nature of this tournament.

Good stuff again, Jumbo.