Potential bracketing problem

[Jumbo]

I had been meaning to bring this up, and Joe Lunardi addresses it in his latest bracketology. Duke may pay a seeding price for the ACC's success. The ACC will get seven or eight teams in the tournament. Seeding rules mandate that teams in the same conference can't be on the same side of a bracket in a given region. (Obviously, if nine teams from a conference get in, that has to happen somewhere)
Here's the problem -- the ACC has a bunch of teams who might end up on the 5-7 range. Plus, No ACC team can be bracketed on Carolina's side, whether they end up as 1 or a 2. So, in Lunardi's bracketology, he has Duke as a 7-seed on the S-Curve. But BC is also a 7. Carolina is a 2. Virginia is a 6. Viginia Tech is a 6. Those are 4 same-side teams. (Maryland is a 5 and Georgia Tech is a 12). So, Duke's left with nowhere to go as a seven. So, Lunardi has to move them to an 8.
Now, theoretically any ACC could get moved off its line. But, there's a better chance it could happen to Duke, because, if I'm not mistaken, the lowest-ranked teams on the S-Curve are the first that have to move off their line. Hopefully, this is a moot point, with VT getting a 5 or something and Duke snagging a 7 (I'd much rather be a 7 than an 8 -- I think that would be huge). Just something to keep an eye on two days from now.

[Duke15304]

ill just wait until sunday to see what happens, this is such a strange postion for us not to be playing right now

[jipops]

I had been meaning to bring this up, and Joe Lunardi addresses it in his latest bracketology. Duke may pay a seeding price for the ACC's success. The ACC will get seven or eight teams in the tournament. Seeding rules mandate that teams in the same conference can't be on the same side of a bracket in a given region. (Obviously, if nine teams from a conference get in, that has to happen somewhere)
Here's the problem -- the ACC has a bunch of teams who might end up on the 5-7 range. Plus, No ACC team can be bracketed on Carolina's side, whether they end up as 1 or a 2. So, in Lunardi's bracketology, he has Duke as a 7-seed on the S-Curve. But BC is also a 7. Carolina is a 2. Virginia is a 6. Viginia Tech is a 6. Those are 4 same-side teams. (Maryland is a 5 and Georgia Tech is a 12). So, Duke's left with nowhere to go as a seven. So, Lunardi has to move them to an 8.
Now, theoretically any ACC could get moved off its line. But, there's a better chance it could happen to Duke, because, if I'm not mistaken, the lowest-ranked teams on the S-Curve are the first that have to move off their line. Hopefully, this is a moot point, with VT getting a 5 or something and Duke snagging a 7 (I'd much rather be a 7 than an 8 -- I think that would be huge). Just something to keep an eye on two days from now.

I may be mistaken but aren't 7 vs. 10 the most prone to upsets? Ofcourse the results of a 9 over an 8 are really never considered upsets. At this point we should just be happy that we're in.

Looking at the potential 9 seeds does look a little scary -- Mich St., Villanova, Kentucky, or Airforce. I think I'd actually rather face UK. Other possible ones are Vandy (a very dangerous team), Texas Tech, or Indiana. There is a huge difference for a 6 seed based on 11 seed projections here - (Drexel, VCU (actually another dangerous team), ODU or Purdue)

[phaedrus]

9s actually beat 8s at a better than 50% rate. aside from that 12 vs. 5 is the most common upset.

[KyDevilinIL]

I don't think a game against UK would be good for us in the first round, especially after enduring a full week off. Those people are livid right now, and I fear Duke would be walking into a full-on assault from the fans and from the team. Last season, UK nearly parlayed it's year-long frustration into an upset of UConn; heaven knows they'd ratchet up the intensity even more against Duke. Face it, setting basketball-only arguments aside, a first round game against Nova, as Lunardi predicts now, wouldn't nearly be the emotional ordeal a game against UK would be.

That said, playing in Lexington isn't all that appealing either, regardless of the opponent. (Although I'll be at those games, so if that's where Duke ultimately goes, I'll do my best.)

Bottom line is, we're in a spot where any of the likely outcomes is probably going to be undesirable in one way or another. We've just got to accept what we get and go for it.

[hurleyfor3]

Like it really freaking matters what seed we are.

[Jumbo]

Like it really freaking matters what seed we are.

Nice attitude.

[Cameron]

I really hope that our loss in the ACC First Round keeps us away from the 5 spot; that would be a terrible seeding for us, or for anyone for that matter. Like mentioned above, the 12/5 game is almost a given as to who is going to win. I believe there were three 12 winners in this matchup a few years back.

I would love a 6 seed, though. Playing the 11 and then the 3 wouldn't be all that bad at all. That might actually be the most perfect seed we could draw. A 7 still places you with a possible 2 seed in the Second Round and an 8 or 9 (considering Syracuse, Michigan State, Kentucky, Arizona, and Indiana are all possible matchups as well as an almost guaranteed game with an Ohio State, Florida, UCLA, Wisconsin, or Kansas in round two) is complete hell.

Let's bank on a 6. I don't think we will get it, but one can hope.

[JBDuke]

9s actually beat 8s at a better than 50% rate. aside from that 12 vs. 5 is the most common upset.

Actually, according to wikipedia, the win rates for lower seeds (since 1985) are:

#9 - 53%
#10 - 40%
#11 - 31%
#12 - 33%
#13 - 20%
#14 - 17%
#15 - 5%
#16 - 0% (never happened)

So, if you don't call a #9 beating a #8 an upset, the most common upset is the #10 over the #7. If you don't call that an upset, then it jumps to the #12 seed over the #5.

[feldspar]

What could be better for CBS ratings than to have Duke/UK as a prime-time matchup on Thursday night with a Saturday potential of Duke/UK against the weakest #1 seed (Wisconsin, maybe)?

[imagepro]

Hurley- I think what you are saying is, we have to play SOMEONE, so lets play. Right Hurley? Whats wrong with that? Your point is right on. WE have to play if we are a 16 or n 8.

Whoever wins the title will win 6 games. All teams in it are pretty good good. Lets play. I agree with Hurleyfor3. We play who we play. So what if it is Kentucky, Memphis, UCLA, or Wisconsin. Lets play. All focus should be on who we play. Not where, when our what seed we are. Lets play and play like DUKE, no whining about our seed. If that happens, we'll be ok. I say, bring em on!

[dukehick]

But I kinda like the idea of being an 8 seed. I really think the difference between the a 9 or a 10 as an opponent is pretty meaningless this year. Just look at all the upsets in the ACC and other conference tournaments. I think there is a lot of parity between #1-#10 in the polls and even more parity between the next 20-30 teams. So lets say we wind up an 8 seed? Okay, that means we need to beat a top 35 team on a neutral floor. We have already done that this year and if we get back to playing our mid-season defense (with K under the hood for a full week I think we will be pleasantly surprised in this department) then we should be in good shape for that game.

Okay, so if we can get past the #9 then that leaves us with a second round date with a #1 seed. Has anyone been watching basketball over the past few weeks? What about the potential #1 seeds makes you think they are unbeatable? Call me a gambler but I like the idea of us getting a shot at one of the "big boys" this year and letting the cards fall where they may. As an earlier poster pointed out, if we beat the #1 then we basically become the #1 in the bracket because we will then be given the path that the former #1 has. This happens every year to some team. Duke just hasn't been in that position for the past 10 years.

So maybe I am hopelessly optimistic or maybe I have just accepted that a 7 or 8 seed is right where this team needs to be right now. I still think we have a solid win and an upset in our back pocket...

[hurleyfor3]

Nice attitude.

What I meant is at this point we could lose to a 12 or a 13, or beat a two or a three. If a #1 is mailing it in we could give them a lot of trouble too. In that respect our draw doesn't matter.

[mapei]

I don't think it matters much, either. We're not going to get an easy game at any seed we're likely to get, and at this point I'll be delighted if we win one game in the tourney. If we win two, I'll be very (and pleasantly) surprised. If we don't win any, I won't be too surprised at that. We're just not a team that inspires fan confidence right now.

[MulletMan]

But I kinda like the idea of being an 8 seed. I really think the difference between the a 9 or a 10 as an opponent is pretty meaningless this year. Just look at all the upsets in the ACC and other conference tournaments. I think there is a lot of parity between #1-#10 in the polls and even more parity between the next 20-30 teams. So lets say we wind up an 8 seed? Okay, that means we need to beat a top 35 team on a neutral floor. We have already done that this year and if we get back to playing our mid-season defense (with K under the hood for a full week I think we will be pleasantly surprised in this department) then we should be in good shape for that game.

Okay, so if we can get past the #9 then that leaves us with a second round date with a #1 seed. Has anyone been watching basketball over the past few weeks? What about the potential #1 seeds makes you think they are unbeatable? Call me a gambler but I like the idea of us getting a shot at one of the "big boys" this year and letting the cards fall where they may. As an earlier poster pointed out, if we beat the #1 then we basically become the #1 in the bracket because we will then be given the path that the former #1 has. This happens every year to some team. Duke just hasn't been in that position for the past 10 years.

So maybe I am hopelessly optimistic or maybe I have just accepted that a 7 or 8 seed is right where this team needs to be right now. I still think we have a solid win and an upset in our back pocket...

I would love to be an 8 seed. Seriously. I would love the 4 days leading up to the start of the tourney where the one seed in that region was bithcing about getting screwed with Duke being thier 8 seed. I would love the match up with 9 seed to start the tourney, as I feel like some of the more dangerous mid-majors would actually be seeded 10, 11, 12. We could get our feet wet against a 9 seed, and then get a crack at a one seed in the second round. We would get a chance to play one of the best teams in the country on a huge stage. Really great chance to find out who wants to be abig time player. If we win, we're in the sweet 16 and know that we can beat anyone. If we lose, we have a bunch of young guys who know what its like to play in a huge NCAA tourney game. I would love an 8 seed. I am not kidding.