Are we Sure We're Dancing?

**RockyMtDevil** · 03-09-2007, 02:54 PM

This is probably a dumb question, but finishing the year 0-3 and 4-6, plus our complete inability to beat any ranked team since January causes me to ponder the possibility of Duke not getting a dance card on Sunday. Is anyone else worried that we are not a "lock"?

Colin Cowherd had a great piece on Duke this morning getting an automatic bid every year just because we're Duke, but nothing is guaranteed. Are we guaranteed an at large with our RPI, SOS and early season wins?

What makes us exceptionally different in the eyes of the commitee than FSU and Clemson, or even Ga. Tech for that matter?

**Troublemaker** · 03-09-2007, 02:56 PM

Our SOS is the difference. Right now Duke is 16th in the RPI. No team higher than 30th in the RPI (or thereabouts) has ever missed the tournament. Duke is a 100% lock.

**Troublemaker** · 03-09-2007, 03:00 PM

Let's amend that to no team from a major conference with an RPI higher than 30 (it may be 31 but basically +/- 2 or so) has ever missed the tournament. I forgot that Missouri St missed last season with an RPI of 21.

**kjo3444** · 03-09-2007, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Let's amend that to no team from a major conference with an RPI higher than 30 (it may be 31 but basically +/- 2 or so) has ever missed the tournament. I forgot that Missouri St missed last season with an RPI of 21.

Exactly. Duke is dancing - the only question is the seed. I think #6.

**Troublemaker** · 03-09-2007, 03:02 PM

Duke is also in the top 10 for the number of top 50 RPI wins. http://kenpom.com/rpi.php?y=2007&s=8

Our overall RPI SOS is 3rd in the country.

**jkidd31** · 03-09-2007, 03:03 PM

I'd add Air Force (although they have struggled of late) and Davidson on our list of good wins as well.

**devildownunder** · 03-10-2007, 12:35 AM

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Duke is also in the top 10 for the number of top 50 RPI wins. http://kenpom.com/rpi.php?y=2007&s=8

Our overall RPI SOS is 3rd in the country.

It's also a bit inflated, due to the ACC's up year (unavoidable and common) and our meticulously planned OOC schedule (completely our doing).

I don't think they'll discount it enough to keep us out of the tournament but I think it will hurt our seeding some. I think we are an 8 or a 9, unless we get moved a line or 2 up or down to create a premier matchup.

**Troublemaker** · 03-10-2007, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by devildownunder

It's also a bit inflated, due to the ACC's up year (unavoidable and common) and our meticulously planned OOC schedule (completely our doing).

I don't think they'll discount it enough to keep us out of the tournament but I think it will hurt our seeding some.

I'm pretty sure the committee won't be "discounting" our SOS at all. I predicted an 8 seed as well but making the tournament is a 100% lock. I'll wager anything that Duke makes the field of 65. Dollars to doughnuts, body parts to monopoly money. It's mathematical law. Just as 2+2=4, Duke will make the NCAA tournament this year.

**devildownunder** · 03-10-2007, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

I'm pretty sure the committee won't be "discounting" our SOS at all. I predicted an 8 seed as well but making the tournament is a 100% lock. I'll wager anything that Duke makes the field of 65. Dollars to doughnuts, body parts to monopoly money. It's mathematical law. Just as 2+2=4, Duke will make the NCAA tournament this year.

I don't disagree with anything you've said here. We are a lock for the tournament. My point was that some seem to think our SOS and RPI will garner a 6 seed, or even a 5. I don't see that happening, in part because I do believe we are a paper tiger.

**Chard** · 03-09-2007, 03:05 PM

A resounding YES! I see what you are thinking now that I read your post but there really is no chance Duke will miss the NCAAs this year. Duke sells tickets, t-shirts, hats, and most importantly to CBS, ad space.

That is the weakest argument I could make. Now add the strength of schedule and wins/losses against the top 50. Rest yo' weary head.

**phaedrus** · 03-09-2007, 03:14 PM

a) yes duke is a lock

b) http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...hts/index.html on the overratedness of the rpi (by a duke alum too)

c) in general, you should switch to si.com if you get sick of the juvenile crap on espn

**throatybeard** · 03-09-2007, 03:15 PM

Duke's resume is so full of contradictory information that I wouldn't want to be on the seeding committee and have to figure out what to do with us.

**vango** · 03-09-2007, 03:26 PM

100% in.

Possibly a 6 but I'd bet a 7 or 8 seed.

Interestingly, one "bracket projection" (for what it was worth) had us in an 8/9 game with Texas Tech. Knight vs. K in a first round game. Possible - but who would have thunk it.

**grossbus** · 03-09-2007, 03:47 PM

Originally Posted by vango

100% in.

Possibly a 6 but I'd bet a 7 or 8 seed.

Interestingly, one "bracket projection" (for what it was worth) had us in an 8/9 game with Texas Tech. Knight vs. K in a first round game. Possible - but who would have thunk it.

the committee loves to do crap like that.

**Matches** · 03-09-2007, 03:53 PM

We'll be a 7, maybe an 8. Texas Tech is a good bet for a 1st round opponent. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a matchup with Winthrop.

**Troublemaker** · 03-09-2007, 03:55 PM

Kentucky, Arizona... also possibilities.

**dockfan** · 03-09-2007, 04:00 PM

With all the upsets, let's actually pray that Memphis slides up to the 2 line, and we are the 7 seed in that region. I could also see Syracuse as our 10 seed opponent- the committee traditionally likes lining Duke and Syracuse up for some reason. (East Coast ratings from north to south = $$$)

In that case,
Sweet 16 here we come!!

**EKU1969** · 03-09-2007, 08:24 PM

Bill Plascke picked Duke to go to the Sweet 16, all the while bemoaning that Duke is the "villan" everyone loves to hate, and, since Duke "is not that good" this year, it's not as much fun to hate them. But, I thought it was quite interesting that he picked Duke to make the Sweet 16.

**Cameron** · 03-09-2007, 11:21 PM

The committee has tried several times to set up Regional Final matchups between Duke and Kentucky over the years. And it worked in 1998. They also tried it in 2001 (and failed as UK lost in the Sweet 16 to USC) and in 2005 (and failed as we lost to Michigan State in the Sweet 16). And, since both Duke and Kentucky are probably fit as 8 or 9 seeds this season, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the committe tried to match us up in the First Round to play one another. That would be a HUGE First Round game, maybe the biggest ever.

**KyDevilinIL** · 03-09-2007, 11:57 PM

Originally Posted by Cameron

And, since both Duke and Kentucky are probably fit as 8 or 9 seeds this season, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the committe tried to match us up in the First Round to play one another. That would be a HUGE First Round game, maybe the biggest ever.

Not to mention it also guarantees a marquee second round game, barring a spectacular upset in the 1/16 matchup.

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