What do we know after 5 games???

[DukeBrasil]

5 games into the season and we've seen a good sampling of teams and how Duke has won games in a variety of ways, all the way from high-scoring blow-outs against low-powered teams (NCCU) to nail-biters against top-flight teams (Marq). Duke has been able to post double digit wins in all but the last game, and has maintained those dd leads for long periods of time. It has shown a go-to-scorer-by-committee with Scheyer, Henderson, Singler all having 20+ pt games. It has also shown that it has grown up from last year and can resist folding in crunch time like they did last year. It has won games against teams with superior frontcourts (UI) and teams with (arguably) better backcourts (Marq), and has therefore shown the versatility that they need to have to be successful in the ACC. The confidence built from defeating Marq. will go a long way to powering this team throughout the year.
I'm not sure if addition by subtraction works since last year's team was not as deep nor as healthy as we were, at times not so convincingly, told that they were (ie., Paulus, Pocius, McClure etc). All I'm gonna say is that JM played hard and was in a tough situation not of his making, he didn't do the best job handling it but he played hard.
Duke has shown depth at each position almost at 1:1 ie; 1) Paulus/Smith 2)Nelson/Pocius 3)Henderson/Scheyer 4) Singler/King 5) Thomas/Zoubek (w/McClure not really playing yet). Duke has shown that it doesn’t always have a "5" out there as well as other wrinkles that don't jive with traditional 1-5 pstns.
1 - Paulus has played a good PG distributing +asts as well as a ++ a/to. His shooting has not been as sharp (nor from the charity strip) as last year, but the team hasn't really needed him to shoot, and a good PG will realize that. - Smith has shown that he's got some skill (ie 1st 2 games) as well as that he is still very much a FR. But durn if ain't nice to have a quality #2 PG.
2- Nelson has really shown the grit and leadership that he didn't show nearly as much last year. STRONG rpg for a guard and his shooting has been a nice surprise lately except that his FT% is starting to decline again. - Pocius had back-to-back 10 pt games (last year's loss to VCU and NCCU) but has not played much against better teams so far.
3- Henderson has rebounded much better than I thought he would and has shown some brilliance and some mediocrity, but has definitely been a ++ for this team and a big reason for its success so far. - Scheyer, it's hard to put these guys in the same position b/c they are such different players, but….Jon's play has been un-even in the pts column, with some excellent performances and 2 sub-par ones, but his all-around game has been sweet and steady. ++ a/to and + rpg for a "shooting guard".
4- Singler has arguably been the best player (it's hard to quantify DNs leadership) and the recent emergence of his 3pt game will only make him more difficult to guard. His clutchness has been observed, his FT% is a +++ and his grittiness on the boards is a ++. - King is more of a 3 but…he's shown that he's got range and can hit tons of 3s and that he is a FR still. I think his PT will be limited to teams w/o lots of depth at guard.
5- Thomas, LT is more of a 4 than a real 5 but he'll be Duke's designated big-man and he's been a + so far, playing within himself and scrapping, although the fouls have limited his time on the court a bit. After logging an undefineable a/to for most of last year (0/40) he started this year with an infinite a/to after NCCU (1/0). FTs have been a + so far but mysteriously his rpg has been a so far. - Zoubek - has shown development and has produced + contributions in every game so far. His rpg and his ability to go for O boards has been a ++ as well as his offensive efficiency is a +.
Good start to the season, with lots of the q´s from pre-season having been answered in a + way so far.

[gw67]

DukeBrasil - Your individual player assessments are measured and pretty much on the mark as far as I am concerned. To answer the question in your thread title, it is simple - this team, as predicted by coach K, is much better than last year's team. As you point out, it is healthier and deeper, and in almost all aspects of the game, it is improved. I don't want to get carried away but the team has a load of potential, IMO.

gw67

[sandinmyshoes]

I'll just say that we're better than we feared, and closer to being as good as we reasonably hoped.

[Bob Green]

We know that DeMarcus Nelson is a consistent scorer. He is averaging 12.6 points per game with a low game of 7 points and a high game of 16 (twice). However, it is my perception that like last season, he is scoring more points in the first half than in the second half. I haven't specifically tracked his points per half but I may give it a shot the next three or so games. The EKU game has a 3 AM tip-off so I'll need to set my alarm clock.

p.s. Have I mentioned recently how happy my wife is when the alarm clock goes off at 2:45 AM?

[mepanchin]

I did a pretty in depth comparison of last year's first 5 games (which ended with a loss to Marquette) and this year's first 5 games (which ended with a victory over Marquette). The biggest difference as a team is turnovers. We are causing more turnovers and turning it over less. Individually, each player has improved pretty much across the board: shooting better from the field, turning it over less often. All except DeMarcus. While Nelson is playing better now than he did at the end of last year, the first 5 games last year, he was playing very well. I just hope this year he can keep it up all year. Even so he is turning it over less often and still scoring efficiently.

[Indoor66]

The biggest difference as a team is turnovers. We are causing more turnovers and turning it over less.

Is there any relationship in that difference in that we are, in most positions and players, one year older? That may be the biggest difference. "The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores" as the hackneyed cliché goes.

[Saratoga2]

I did a pretty in depth comparison of last year's first 5 games (which ended with a loss to Marquette) and this year's first 5 games (which ended with a victory over Marquette). The biggest difference as a team is turnovers. We are causing more turnovers and turning it over less. Individually, each player has improved pretty much across the board: shooting better from the field, turning it over less often. All except DeMarcus. While Nelson is playing better now than he did at the end of last year, the first 5 games last year, he was playing very well. I just hope this year he can keep it up all year. Even so he is turning it over less often and still scoring efficiently.

This year my conclusion is that Henderson, Paulus, Thomas, Zoubek and Nelson are all playing smarter and better and perhaps being free of injuries, having spent time developing moves and just realizing what works and what doesn't explains the differences we see. Scheyer was solid last year and looks solid again this year.

We also have Singler, who is a better scorer and is capable defensively, I would say he is an upgrade when compared to McRoberts. We also have Smith as a backup point guard who can defend and can score.

This team will probably average 10 ppg more than last years and give up about the same number of points. Due to depth we should be unlikely to feel the injury bug as much.

[mgtr]

I agree that Nelson seems exhausted in the second half. One answer might be to give him a real good rest midway through the first half. I know this has worked for other players on other teams. Worth a shot?

[bdh21]

Nelson's 1st-2nd half scoring by game...
NCCU 7--3
NMSU 8--6
Princeton 6--1
Illinois 11--5
Marquette 12--4

I apologize for the formatting.

[dukestheheat]

mgtr-

I like your suggestion on resting Markie at the interval you suggest.

Also, we know one thing right now: Duke won a game (Marquette) that we surely would have lost last year (or, more accurately, we lost several games last year that fit the tone/pace of this year's Marquette game).

This shows great improvement in several areas for Duke: scoring, for one.

Also, we know that Kyle Singler is precocious and we are so very fortunate to have this guy on the team. Hope he doesn't play too well or stay on track as he's been playing, or else........(don't even want to mention it).

dth.

[mapei]

What I most want to see from DM compared to last year is (1) fewer turnovers and desperate drives and (2) more free throw makes. I think I've seen some progress already on #1.

What I've seen from the team this year is more excitement, mostly due to Singler and the emergence of Henderson.

I don't think Smith is ready for prime time. He's OK for spot duty but I don't see him as anywhere close to the top 7 players in court composure, not that one should expect it from a freshman. Bring him along and he'll be fine.

[jzp5079]

after 5 games,

we know we are undefeated.

after 5 games,

we know that NC State may give us a big fit. Their front court will make our penetration less useful as they will be able to use their big bodies to take away easy buckets off drives, and make it very difficult for us to get tip-ins among offensive rebounds etc...

We know we are better then last year...

because we beat basically the same Marquette team that beat us by 11

We know we can expect to be deep when...

we are playing a sorry opponent...

We know we can expect to only be 6-7 deep when...

we are playing in a close - tough game.


As much as I think Coach K wants to play deep - he just can't trust anyone out of his top 6-7 guys when the game is up in the air, something in him just dosn't let him do it.

[Troublemaker]

I think one thing we know is that our players worked very, very hard in the offseason to improve their skills.

Lance worked on his footwork and using the glass to score. He won't be able to go over the top of most of his defenders, so that dropstep-and-bank that he's developing will be very useful over the course of his career. At some point, he needs to develop a reliable 15-footer to set up his drives and take his game to another level (top 15 ACC) but that probably won't happen until he's an upperclassman. He's a very good defender in Duke's system, as expected. Zoub is doing a good job challenging shots without leaving his feet and I'm interested in seeing what he'll look like in a couple of months. There might be no difference, but maybe he'll display even more when he's in shape.

Our guards worked very hard as well. Markie has shown a little push shot around the basket that enables him to jumpstop instead of going all the way for a layup. He's also using the glass better on his drives (same with Gerald). So far this season he's been doing a good job with the drive-and-kick, and I think having the court spread helps his game out a lot. Both Jon and Gerald have sharpened their midrange jumpshot a bit. As upperclassmen, that shot will be very, very reliable for them. Jon needs to pull the trigger more. Greg has improved his quickness and tightened his handle to the point that he rarely needs to turn his back to get the team into the offense anymore.

Add 3 freshmen to the mix that can contribute right away (one of them becoming a starter and arguably the best player), and it's no wonder Duke is vastly improved.

[socaldukie]

Having been in Maui I noticed improvement in a few areas:

LT no longer has the deer in headlights look. He seems much more comfortable on the offensive end. This is due to better footwork and confidence.

Markie looks better in finishes around the basket. It seems to this point he has made smarter decisions more often than not. And, if it is possible he is even stronger this year.

BZ had some good minutes as well. He kept the ball off the floor and produced in the minutes he got.

Paulus looks to have much more mobility than at any point last year.

Hendo looks more confident. His late season success has carried into this early season.

Scheyer continues to be a steady contributor.

This team just seems to really work well together. Having someone like Kyle also makes those around him better. His overall game is really something. He knows where to be and he is not afraid to take control offensively. I think his confidence and willingness to be aggressive sets the tone for this team. You can see an overall level of confidence (particularly on offense) in this group you did not see last year. Part of of it is more experience, good team chemistry, and the fact that K has found a style that suits this squad. Remember we are only a few weeks into this season. I think that is a good sign for the outlook this year.

[ice-9]

IMO DeMarcus has greatly improved from this year to last year. Last year, when he scored, it was mostly from long range beyond the arc. When his shot wasn't falling, he wasn't able to score much. This year he is consistently penetrating, finishing and dishing, and unlike last year without causing offensive fouls. Nelson is just so much more offensively reliable this year than last.

Also, his scoring in the second half this year tends to drop because defenses make adjustments to take away his penetration.