Originally Posted by
Neals384
I was curious if there are players who complement each other particularly well in the Duke lineup. Using Jumbo’s data thru the second NC State game, I totaled the points for/against for each five-man lineup that includes a particular two-man combo. For example, Zoubek & Paulus appear together in 17 different five-player lineups, totaling 164 for, 122 against, +42. Because some two-man combos occur much less often than others, I used percent of total points scored, rather than a simple +/-.
The most effective two-man combos:
Pts Pts
For Ag +/- Pct
King – Smith 421, 299, +122, .585
King – Scheyer 573, 409, +164, .584
King – Singler 222, 161, +61, .580
King – Zoubek 142, 106, +36, .573
Paulus – Zoubek 164, 122, +42, .573
Singler – Zoubek 155, 116, +39, .572
Henderson – Zoubek 178, 134, +44, .571
And the least effective:
McClure – Zoubek 52, 63, -11, .452
McClure – King 87, 88, -1, .497
McClure – Smith 166, 166, 0, .500
McClure – Henderson 187, 184, +3, .504
Smith – Thomas 227, 220, +7, .508
McClure – Paulus 237, 228, +9, .510
Nelson – Zoubek 211, 198, +13, .516
McClure – Scheyer 269, 247, +22, .521
As expected, McClure is included in many of the worst two-man combos. But McClure – Nelson (291, 230, +61, .559) is above the team average of .553.
All of the best and worst two-man combos include at least one of the four role players. All combos of the starters plus Scheyer are very close to the team average. The best of these is Henderson – Singler (1170, 901, +269, .565).
Conclusions: If one assumes that the data are predictive (big if), then:
1) When Zoubek comes into the game, Nelson should sit.
2) When McClure comes into the game, Nelson should play.
3) When Smith comes into the game, Thomas should sit.