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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    Charting Duke/NMSU

    So, since this was the first time I got to see Duke play this year, I decided to do a bit of charting. Specifically, I kept track of each lineup on the floor in order to keep a +/- for individuals and groups. So, here's what happened.
    Duke used 10 players in 24 (!!!) different combinations. The most common grouping was the starting five of Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas, who made four different appearances together. Coach K deployed Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas three times, Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Singler twice and Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Zoubek twice. Every other lineup was deployed exactly once, which is pretty remarkable. So, here's how everyone did. First, the individuals:

    Scheyer +24 (61-37)
    Singler +19 (60-41)
    Nelson +18 (61-43 )
    Henderson +18 (62-44)
    Paulus +16 (57-41)
    King +16 (34-18)
    Smith +9 (29-20)
    Pocius +6 (15-9)
    Zoubek +3 (14-11)
    Thomas -4 (37-41)
    Interesting note: It was 6-6 when Scheyer entered the game. When he left, it was 25-8.

    Different Lineups:

    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler +7 (9-2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Singler +5 (7-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler +5 (7-2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas +4 (13-9)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-King-Thomas +4 (4-0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Pocius-Nelson-King +4 (6-2)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Zoubek +3 (5-2)
    Paulus-Pocius-Nelson-Henderson-Singler +3 (3-0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas +2 (2-0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Pocius-King-Zoubek +2 (6-4)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas +1 (16-15)
    Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-King-Zoubek +1 (3-2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-King-Singler +1 (1-0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas 0 (0-0)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Zoubek 0 (0-0)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Pocius-Nelson-King 0 (0-0)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Pocius-King-Zoubek 0 (0-0)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Thomas 0 (2-2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-King-Thomas -2 (0-2)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Singler-Thomas -2 (0-2)
    Paulus-Nelson-Henderson-King-Singler -2 (2-4)
    Paulus-Scheyer-Pocius-Henderson-Thomas -3 (0-3)
    Smith-Scheyer-Nelson-Thomas-Zoubek -3 (0-3)
    Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas -5 (0-5)

    If anyone wants me to post the full game log, I will. Otherwise, have fun with the numbers!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quit confusing people with facts, Jumbo.

    The truthiness is that Marty needs to play more and we're slavishly wedded to stall ball.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  3. #3
    Ah good, more fuel for the "Scheyer should start" fire

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Taco View Post
    Ah good, more fuel for the "Scheyer should start" fire
    Or fuel for the "He's a perfect sixth-man" fire. To be honest, I've read about three positive things about him since last season. So, if there's a fire about how he should start, it's burning somewhere else.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    The fires I've seen are the "Hendo is awesomely athletic and Scheyer is a slow Whitey" fire, and the "Pocius is underused" fire.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post

    Scheyer +24 (61-37)
    Singler +19 (60-41)
    Nelson +18 (61-43 )
    Henderson +18 (62-44)
    Paulus +16 (57-41)
    King +16 (34-18)
    Smith +9 (29-20)
    Pocius +6 (15-9)
    Zoubek +3 (14-11)
    Thomas -4 (37-41)[/FONT]
    On a per 40 minute basis:

    King +37.65 (+16 17 min)
    Scheyer +35.56 (+24 27 min )
    Pocius +34.29 (+6 7 min)
    Singler +33.04 (+19 23 min)
    Henderson +26.8 (+18 25 min)
    Nelson +25.71 (+18 28 min)
    Paulus +24.61 (+16 26 min)
    Smith +22.50 (+9 16 min)
    Zoubek +10.90 (+3 11 min)
    Thomas -8.00 (-4 20 min)

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    So, here's how everyone did. First, the individuals:[/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT]

    Scheyer +24 (61-37)
    Singler +19 (60-41)
    Nelson +18 (61-43 )
    Henderson +18 (62-44)
    Paulus +16 (57-41)
    King +16 (34-18)
    Smith +9 (29-20)
    Pocius +6 (15-9)
    Zoubek +3 (14-11)
    Thomas -4 (37-41)
    Interesting note: It was 6-6 when Scheyer entered the game. When he left, it was 25-8.

    Smith-Nelson-Henderson-Singler-Thomas -5 (0-5)
    Interesting how the lineup who many would consider Duke's best defensive team had the worst result, though that may be because they did not score as much as due to their defense.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    Interesting how the lineup who many would consider Duke's best defensive team had the worst result, though that may be because they did not score as much as due to their defense.
    To be fair, that lineup (like most of the others), wasn't on the floor all that long together. K was substituting so often that he kept me really busy!

  9. #9
    Okay so apparently my last post got deleted.

    so to repeat in more friendly terms: Lance thomas' performance tonight is more evidence that he should not be starting. He is inferior to zoo, as shown by his greater negative value despite a significant amount of minutes, including that with the other 4 starters (who each had +24 or more).

    Please K, make the switch. Put scheyer or zoo in that spot instead.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Okay so apparently my last post got deleted.

    so to repeat in more friendly terms: Lance thomas' performance tonight is more evidence that he should not be starting. He is inferior to zoo, as shown by his greater negative value despite a significant amount of minutes, including that with the other 4 starters (who each had +24 or more).

    Please K, make the switch. Put scheyer or zoo in that spot instead.
    I wouldn't read too much into just one game. Its a starting point, but its something that should be tracked pre conference play before coming to any conclusion.

    I think its interesting though that Duke was best off with Singler at the 5. Similar to Oregon last year running 4 guards/wings and the 6-9 Leunen. Its one game, but its something that would be interesting to track. It may be the best option.

  11. #11
    Not good news that Thomas and Zoubek were, according to those numbers, our least effective players. Our best lineup may be even smaller than most of us anticipated.

    On the other hand, I didn't think either player had a poor game while I was actually watching.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by phaedrus View Post
    Not good news that Thomas and Zoubek were, according to those numbers, our least effective players. Our best lineup may be even smaller than most of us anticipated.

    On the other hand, I didn't think either player had a poor game while I was actually watching.
    I think it may just be a result of the offensive issues. Neither is particularly good on offense. Taking them both out if defense doesn't suffer means your better off overall.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Houston
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Okay so apparently my last post got deleted.

    so to repeat in more friendly terms: Lance thomas' performance tonight is more evidence that he should not be starting. He is inferior to zoo, as shown by his greater negative value despite a significant amount of minutes, including that with the other 4 starters (who each had +24 or more).

    Please K, make the switch. Put scheyer or zoo in that spot instead.
    Scheyer's played well so far, but let's not forget that he faded a bit down the stretch last year. Maybe K's waiting for some consistancy, but I agree with you--he's certainly played well enough to start thus far. I'm a subscriber to the "perfect 6th man" theory, though--think John Starks, only white, Jewish, and a better shooter. Scheyer's one of our most mentally tough players, and I like him coming off the bench and firing people up.

    Insofar as the LT/Z controvery, let's remember that this is just one game. I really like the way both have improved since last season, but I think Brian's behind Lance at this point due to his injury this summer. Here's how I see it:

    Better athlete: Thomas
    Better shooter: Thomas
    Better rebounder: Zoubek
    Better passer: wash
    Better ball-handler: Thomas
    Better defender: Thomas off the ball (fills the passing lanes well--see NCCU game), Zoubek on the ball (down low, at least)
    Better suited for Duke's style of play: Thomas

    I think Thomas needs to keep starting until Zoubek can go full speed. He's either still hampered by his injury, or he simply isn't that fast. If we're going to run it, Thomas needs more minutes than Zoubek. I'm not knocking Z at all--that's the just way I see it.

    EDIT: If you want to know why I think Lance should start, simply reference the play where Zoubek got the ball under the basket and put the ball on the floor. He should've dunked (which he oddly never does), but IIRC he ended up either getting blocked, missing a lay-up, or losing the ball. Lance would've taken the ball straight up.
    Last edited by DukeCO2009; 11-13-2007 at 12:59 AM. Reason: Zoubek

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by nobodyatall View Post
    I wouldnt read too much into it.

    I think its interesting though that Duke was best off with Singler at the 5. Similar to Oregon last year running 4 guards/wings and the 6-9 Leunen. Its one game, but its something that would be interesting to track. It may be the best option.
    Mind you, im biassed against lance. I think he's a weaker rebounder than he should be, commits too many fouls, and doesnt score enough points to make up for these shortcomings. Zoubek similarly commits fouls, but has the advantage of the fact that his size in the paint changes the way opponent's play their offensive games, something lance can't do simply due to his stature.

    So yes, this is a small sample size, but it's a bad indicator that my feelings might not be misplaced. Zoubek needs to work on keeping his hands on the ball better as he too often loses rebounds simply because of pressure from opposing big men, and has a few issues of not being able to put the ball in the net when he gets the ball inside. However, his size makes him better defensively than lance, who cant function as a true big man in the post.

    Granted, i hope jumbo compiles these throughout the year so we can see if my observations are correct, and to see if certain players improve. Mind you, zoo's #s in this game aren't that impressive, and he might end up being the same as Lance after all (in which case, we should go small instead), but i don't think so.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Close to the Gothic Playground!
    nobodyatall et. al.-

    Can I please toss in one factor that may not be taken into account in this discussion?

    the factor, in my opinion: Duke's performance versus a zone defense versus the same in up-tempo.

    I do believe that we aren't stuck in stall ball so much as we just had trouble figuring out their zone; and, versus that zone, we didn't hit our shots when we took them. So, what appeared to be a proactive move on Duke's part (stall ball) wasn't proactive at all.

    So, I think the numbers and discussion put up in this thread are worthy points for discussion, but I think that the 'playing field' isn't level for the discussion because they involve output in 1) up-tempo and 2) versus the zone.

    my $.02, dth.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by phaedrus View Post
    Not good news that Thomas and Zoubek were, according to those numbers, our least effective players. Our best lineup may be even smaller than most of us anticipated.

    On the other hand, I didn't think either player had a poor game while I was actually watching.
    Sometimes stats don't say everything. Coach K specifically noted that Thomas had an excellent game.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Quote Originally Posted by gvtucker View Post
    Sometimes stats don't say everything. Coach K specifically noted that Thomas had an excellent game.
    I agree with him.

    I also thought Zoub looked better than I had been expecting, primarily on defense. Last year some of those moves would have been fouls. We're definitely weaker in the big positions than elsewhere, and good teams will be able to exploit that. But I thought both these guys showed some improvement over last year.

  18. #18

    Highlight films

    I find it interesting that despite very limited playing minutes, Pocius has a high percentage of plays on ESPN highlights. I am not surprised, however, that, even if not a gifted defensive player, Duke tends to open up leads or catch up when Pocius is in the lineup. He brings a lot of energy to the floor.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Charlottesville, Va
    I loved it when Duke was pushing the Ball. K said that it looked like they got tired when they stopped running in the second half but with the depth that the team has we need to substitute and keep running. The best thing that I saw from the game was the great pressure and help defense. I hope that they can keep it up for the season but that will also takes a long bench.

  20. #20
    To add to what Jumbo posted, here's a full HD Box Score of the Duke/New Mexico St game, for those interested in that kind of thing.

    Here's a description of what a HD Box Score shows.
    Follow SCACCHoops.com on Twitter and Facebook!

    Check out our NCAA Scoreboard featuring live tempo-based stats.

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