Sources of Upside

[Troublemaker]

Hey Guys,

We're at the halfway mark of the conference season. The general feeling around here seems to be very positive about the team's recent play, and I think most people believe we haven't hit our ceiling yet, meaning we believe this team holds further upside.

So let's everyone together compile a list of these sources of upside. What can this team reasonably improve by the end of this season?

I'll start.

I would love to see Quinn break out of his shooting slump soon. This Duke team is already the best 3-pt shooting team we've ever had. And we're doing it despite the player with the most 3-pt attempts on the team having shot only 33%. Imagine how good we'd be if Quinn started hitting!

I would say Quinn breaking his shooting slump is a MINOR source of upside that has a PROBABLE likelihood of coming true.

What else? Let's compile this list. Thanks!

[jv001]

I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!

[FerryFor50]

Hey Guys,

We're at the halfway mark of the conference season. The general feeling around here seems to be very positive about the team's recent play, and I think most people believe we haven't hit our ceiling yet, meaning we believe this team holds further upside.

So let's everyone together compile a list of these sources of upside. What can this team reasonably improve by the end of this season?

I'll start.

I would love to see Quinn break out of his shooting slump soon. This Duke team is already the best 3-pt shooting team we've ever had. And we're doing it despite the player with the most 3-pt attempts on the team having shot only 33%. Imagine how good we'd be if Quinn started hitting!

I would say Quinn breaking his shooting slump is a MINOR source of upside that has a PROBABLE likelihood of coming true.

What else? Let's compile this list. Thanks!

I think that's a good start. Quinn's shooting slump is a result of two things, I think -

1) His injured ankles

Less mobility and agility means fewer options to get create shots. That means settling for forced three pointers and not getting as open on drives, not to mention not feeling pain every time he lifts on his jumper. As Quinn heals, we'll see better results.

2) Decision making

This plagued Quinn prior to his injuries. He tends to go into hero mode when we have plenty of other capable scorers to distribute to. If Quinn was the only option, I'd be ok with some of his decisions, but when you have Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker and Amile Jefferson on the floor with you most of the game, you should have more assists than shot attempts.

For my "upside" contributions...

1) Rodney Hood attacking the rim more aggressively.

Hood, for the most part, plays with finesse. He prefers jumpers, and when he does drive, he contorts a lot.

However, we saw at the end of the Syracuse game that Hood has some hops and can attack the basket aggressively. I'd like to see that more. Parker already attacks the basket with purpose, but if Duke could get Hood to do the same, they'd be in better shape.

MEDIUM upside. DECENT likelihood.

2) Sulaimon starts hitting his layups

Sulaimon does a GREAT job of getting the basket. He doesn't finish very well, though. If he starts finishing better... HIGH upside. DECENT likelihood of happening.

[firstpost]

Duke's upside at this point coincides directly with the improvement of team based skills such as passing/ball movement on the offensive and defensive ends. The individual talent is obviously there. I believe we will see less and less isolations as the season goes on, and more easy buckets that result from crisp/quick passes. I think it's also safe to say that offensive ball movement will translate to team defense on the other side of the ball.

I'm really excited for this team.

I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!

[Kfanarmy]

Assists, assists, assists. That is one of the greatest measures of teamwork on offense.

Interior defense is still a work in progress. Gotta get hands in the passing lane; gotta get hands on the ball, and gotta protect the rim better. KenPom has Duke at 85th in AdjDef. In raw ppg allowed they are tied at 75. I think I saw them at 100 in Defensive Efficiency. SIGNIFICANT opportunities to improve there.

[johnb]

Playing like we do now, I'd guess we'd lose a tough game during the second weekend. Respectable but a little disappointing.

To get to the final weekend and have a chance to win it all, I'd say everybody is potentially crucial, but what fun is that sort of comment? Instead:

Rodney and Jabari need to consistently show that they are the best players on the court. Ie, we should be shaking our heads in disbelief every few minutes rather than a few times per game. They need to demoralize the guys who are unable to effectively guard them, leading to other players hedging towards them, thereby freeing up our other guys for 3's and dunks. They're not rookies to the team anymore. If they are actually ready to go pro early, now's the time to prove it.

Quinn needs to be more effective in the half court against really good defensive teams. Without such a demonstration, my hunch is that the coaches will pencil in Tyus as next year's starter alongside Rasheed (who seemed fairly adept as playmaker against Syracuse).

Marshall needs to be Zoubek. If the rest of the guys ramp up their games a bit, this one could be the single most important step forward. If everybody stays static, a Plumlee bump will be fun but less crucial since we'll be losing in the round of 16.

I don't, offhand, know how those things can be accomplished, but no one has ever said I know anything about basketball, so I feel free to opine.

[roywhite]

I think Jabari is on the right track, and has totally bought into the team concept.

I'm looking for continued improvement in his shot selection (more near the basket or going to the basket), some of these shots connecting more often, and frankly, I'd like to see him get a few more calls down low.

An early prediction -- I think Jabari has a monster game vs Syracuse when they come to town later this month; he's the guy to crack their zone (mostly from inside).

[Kedsy]

It's funny to me that practically every comment so far has been about offense, when we have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the history of Pomeroy. And the one comment about defense has been about interior defense, which I don't think is anywhere near our most important issue on D.

So my "source of upside" is team defense. Continue to get better at communication and positioning; hedging, helping, and rotating. Turning people over more, like we did against FSU and NC State. If our defense can be a source of fear for the opponent, we'll be a terror in the tournament.

Marshall needs to be Zoubek. If the rest of the guys ramp up their games a bit, this one could be the single most important step forward. If everybody stays static, a Plumlee bump will be fun but less crucial since we'll be losing in the round of 16.

Another thing that I think is funny is how Brian Zoubek has risen to legend status on these boards, when during the 2009-2010 season most posters here spent most of the season calling for him to ride the pine, at least until his "breakout" game against Maryland. What people don't seem to understand is Brian had been performing at that level all season (and much of the previous season), and the only significant difference from the Maryland game on was his minutes increased, from 15.2 mpg to 23.9 mpg. His per minute and tempo-free stats and his defense didn't take a jump, it just looked that way because he played almost 60% more minutes.

No, Marshall doesn't "need" to be Zoubek. Which is a good thing because it isn't going to happen, at least not this year. His minutes have already jumped from 4.3 mpg to 11 mpg since the Virginia game, and I'd be surprised if they take another big jump. But more importantly, Marshall's current abilities and stats (per minute and/or tempo-free) and especially his defense are nowhere near what Brian Zoubek had been accomplishing before the jump.

Now johnb is certainly not the first person to say this -- I don't mean to single him out -- and he's also not the first person to say things like, "[i]f everyone stays static... we'll be losing in the round of 16," but that's not how the NCAA tournament works.

We are currently #3 in Pomeroy and #2 in Sagarin Predictor, and that includes the early season games when we weren't nearly as good as we are now. Those numbers suggest that if "everyone stays static" we'll play in the Final Four, although of course that's not how the tournament works either.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Jefferson is where the team takes the biggest step forward, IMO.

He's playing stronger inside and his confidence continues to grow. I like his bounce, and even tho he's relatively thin, he's playing stronger inside now.

Duke has plenty of wing play necessary to go far, but teams are going to keep pounding it inside and drive to the rim, so without his solid play inside I think Duke will have problems with the best teams.

The past few games he's given Duke that player down low that teams have to respect, along with Parker when he plays the post, and that creates the spacing that plays to Duke's strength on the wings.

[Wander]

Try really hard to not get in foul trouble, and if we unfortunately do, someone physically restrain Coach K from putting Andre Dawkins at the 4 spot.

[Clay Feet POF]

My upside List:

1) More minutes for our bench, in the SU game I could not believe Cook had 40 minutes and Matt had 0. So much talent to be developed

2 Hoping Semi gets meaningful minutes against softer teams He was such an offensive weapon in Kansas High school, let’s open up his minutes and see what he can contribute under games conditions. ( Practice evaluation is not a perfect science let’s not anything fall through the cracks)

3) Seems there is more efficiency when Rasheed and Quinn are on different 5’s Rasheed looks like a much better driver with another guard.

In a nutshell “Reaping the benefits of a 10-11 rotation,”

[UrinalCake]

I don't mind Quinn taking a three when he's wide open, but I'd like to see his improvement come from better decision-making, better distribution of the ball in ways that help his teammates score (rather than just passing around the perimeter), and better emotional maturity.

Defensively I'd love for us to create some more turnovers or at least apply good pressure without fouling. I think that's our best chance at overcoming our poor interior defense. We're still allowing too many blow-by's on the perimeter.

Would like for MP3 to take another leap and be able to give us 10-15 minutes of solid play. If he could go from just "not making mistakes" to "making a positive impact" then that would be huge.

Also if Amile could develop a 10-15 foot jump shot that would really round out his game, though I don't see that happening until the offseason.

[azzefkram]

2) Decision making

This plagued Quinn prior to his injuries. He tends to go into hero mode when we have plenty of other capable scorers to distribute to. If Quinn was the only option, I'd be ok with some of his decisions, but when you have Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker and Amile Jefferson on the floor with you most of the game, you should have more assists than shot attempts.

This is bull malarkey. Quinn tends to go into "hero mode" no more so than Rodney, Jabari, or Sheed. He is 4th in FGA/40 and shares 4th with Sheed in USG%. His USG% has been trending down slightly most of year. His eFG is better than Sheed's and on par with Jabari's. You'd have to go back to Duhon in '04 to find someone not named Quinn who averaged more than Quinn's 5.5 AST/game. His 3:1 A:TO ratio is on par with Scheyer in '10. His assists are fine.

[jv001]

This is bull malarkey. Quinn tends to go into "hero mode" no more so than Rodney, Jabari, or Sheed. He is 4th in FGA/40 and shares 4th with Sheed in USG%. His USG% has been trending down slightly most of year. His eFG is better than Sheed's and on par with Jabari's. You'd have to go back to Duhon in '04 to find someone not named Quinn who averaged more than Quinn's 5.5 AST/game. His 3:1 A:TO ratio is on par with Scheyer in '10. His assists are fine.

I think the only time Quinn goes into hero mode is at the end of the shot clock. Rasheed or Hood needs the ball in their hands with the shot clock winding down. Sometimes it Quinn's fault he has the ball in his hands in this situation(too much idle dribbling), but sometimes it's because no one is coming to meet the ball or too much standing around.

[FerryFor50]

This is bull malarkey. Quinn tends to go into "hero mode" no more so than Rodney, Jabari, or Sheed. He is 4th in FGA/40 and shares 4th with Sheed in USG%. His USG% has been trending down slightly most of year. His eFG is better than Sheed's and on par with Jabari's. You'd have to go back to Duhon in '04 to find someone not named Quinn who averaged more than Quinn's 5.5 AST/game. His 3:1 A:TO ratio is on par with Scheyer in '10. His assists are fine.

The point is he should NEVER go into hero mode because he's not as good an offensive player as Jabari or Hood.

[ice-9]

I'm with Kedsy on team defense being by far the source of most upside. It's the little things - not fouling so much, hedging, switching, preventing penetration, providing help, getting hands up to make shots and passes difficult, boxing out, etc.

How good would this team be if we can just get our defensive efficiency in the top 20?

[MChambers]

And I'm with Kedsy and ice-9. I'm optimistic our defense will improve, because we have a lot of players that are young or new to Duke, and learning how to play Duke's man-to-man is a big change for them.

[Matches]

To me the thing that would improve us the most would be for our most talented player to resume being our best player.

Yea our offense is pretty terrific already but it can still get better. A resurgent Jabari might not add a lot of efficiency to the already-efficient offense, but he would draw fouls at a greater rate than we are currently, which has a number of benefits. Of course refs would have to blow the whistle occasionally when he gets creamed in the post.

I don't have the issues with Quinn that some do. His shot selection is not so good at times but otherwise he is a very good offensive player. He does not turn the ball over frequently, his A/TO is very good, and he does a good job of directing traffic. I'd like to see him get his shot back but shooters are up and down.

Defensively I think we've at least figured out our scheme. Jefferson's emergence has negated the need for Jabari to defend the 5, and I think in general we are on the upswing defensively. Improvement over the rest of the season will just come from repetition - guys playing together longer, learning each other's tendencies, and gelling more as a unit. Hood is improving by leaps and bounds on D from game to game, and Sulaimon has found his groove after a slow start.

[FerryFor50]

To me the thing that would improve us the most would be for our most talented player to resume being our best player.

Yea our offense is pretty terrific already but it can still get better. A resurgent Jabari might not add a lot of efficiency to the already-efficient offense, but he would draw fouls at a greater rate than we are currently, which has a number of benefits. Of course refs would have to blow the whistle occasionally when he gets creamed in the post.

I don't have the issues with Quinn that some do. His shot selection is not so good at times but otherwise he is a very good offensive player. He does not turn the ball over frequently, his A/TO is very good, and he does a good job of directing traffic. I'd like to see him get his shot back but shooters are up and down.

Defensively I think we've at least figured out our scheme. Jefferson's emergence has negated the need for Jabari to defend the 5, and I think in general we are on the upswing defensively. Improvement over the rest of the season will just come from repetition - guys playing together longer, learning each other's tendencies, and gelling more as a unit. Hood is improving by leaps and bounds on D from game to game, and Sulaimon has found his groove after a slow start.

For the record, I think Quinn is a very good offensive player as well. But I think Hood and Parker are better overall, especially of late. You can't have your starting PG go 2-12 from the field (1-8 from 3) with just 5 assists and expect to win games. Despite that, Duke came within 2 points of winning. Imagine if Quinn had taken maybe 6-8 shots instead, and gave Parker, Hood, Dawkins, etc a few extra attempts...

If you're a scoring PG, you probably should be the best scorer on the team. I'd put Cook at 3rd best overall.

[daveyro]

I want to see Jabari pass out of double teams more often. He's a good passer and draws a lot of attention from opposing teams. He should have more assists than he does. That's what I'd like to see improvement in. GoDuke!

Jabari is certainly a great, great player with unimaginable upside - but passing out of double teams down low is something that I think he can improve on. Many times he just goes straight up againt 2 or 3 trees. Or if he can't see to pass, a couple of pump fakes will draw a foul.