In no-limit hold’em poker, pocket aces have an 85% chance to win against any single random hand.
Yet, folks are stunned when their aces get cracked.
Much of poker, btw, is simple probability analysis. Probability of hitting a good card, probability of opponent’s action based upon observed tendencies. Some would say that there is no luck in poker — only variance, and skill in determining when to take a risk given your ability(skill) to read what your opponent is likely doing.
When he went to the line, I'd say, "Who dat? This is the first FT Centurion man has ever taken, so we have absolutely no idea what to expect".
The hard part, for me, would be not then saying, "I wonder what rules UNC is breaking this time? Geez, I guess it does not matter, the NCAA will not do anything, regardless".
I've never played, but aren't their pocket aces likely (at least 50% chance) to be cracked? If most players stay in, then doesn't the person with pocket aces have less than a 50% chance of winning?
I'm not sure anyone would be stunned when a 45% FT shooter misses. Hack-a-Shaq may be prudent.
The main thing I would want to ask Century Man is, what part of John Cage's Organ2/ASLSP was his favorite?