World Cup 2018

[OldPhiKap]

Wow.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If you still think this World Cup is boring, you just don't like soccer.

[cato]

Wow.

I was pulling for Sweden, but yeah. That was a nice goal.

[OldPhiKap]

I was pulling for Sweden, but yeah. That was a nice goal.

Same here. But wow.

[fidel]

Is he Batshuayi crazy?

Is he your Daddy?

[NSDukeFan]

Same here. But wow.

I didn’t want Germany eliminated right away and didn’t feel strongly about the result, but as OPK said it perfectly, WOW!

How do you defend that Swedish goal. That was impressive .

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I didn’t want Germany eliminated right away and didn’t feel strongly about the result, but as OPK said it perfectly, WOW!

How do you defend that Swedish goal. That was impressive .

So does the no call in the box in the first half.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

England taking out decades of frustration on an overmatched Panamanian squad.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

England taking out decades of frustration on an overmatched Panamanian squad.

I'm trying to figure out if England is this good, Panama is this bad, or some combination of the two.

Also looking for a resemblance between John Stones and Tyus and Tre...

[JasonEvans]

I think the Cup might have been more interesting if the US had made it instead of Panama.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think the Cup might have been more interesting if the US had made it instead of Panama.

Or, we were saved from utter embarrassment.

[dudog84]

So you're saying Iceland has a chance?!?!?

Musa says "No." Not mathematically eliminated but a loss here probably puts their "through" probability at about 20%.

Are they that unlikely to beat Croatia? Especially since Croatia has 1st in the group locked up already, they may lay back a little to avoid injury risk to key starters. Also, there appeared to be no love lost between Croatia and Argentina, with quite a few yellow cards handed out to Argentina in the second half and some (I thought) cheap plays. With no incentive to for Croatia to win, and some retaliatory motivations to lose, Iceland at least has a shot. I would guess higher than 20%.

Yeah, as tense as some of these matches have been, the intensity is going to go to 11 (I know everyone here is a Spinal Tap fan) on the last few days of group when things really shake out.

Iceland still has a chance. If they beat Croatia and Argentina scores a slim win (edit: or tie; double edit: standings just updated, in that tie I think Iceland would need to win by 3 over Croatia) over Nigeria, I believe they get through on goal differential. As stated above, Croatia has nothing to play for and I also doubt Argentina wants to completely do a face-plant at this World Cup. At first I thought their outlook was dismal, but now I'm thinking maybe 50-50. I hope so, I'd really like to see them get through.

FWIW, 538 is giving Iceland a 7% chance.

[JasonEvans]

FWIW, 538 is giving Iceland a 7% chance.

Here are all the numbers.


Group F and Group H look really fun!

[gus]

Here are all the numbers.


Group F and Group H look really fun!

Mexico giving up that late goal to Korea really changes things. All else being equal, I bet Sweden's odds would have been closer to single digits instead of 40%.

[Acymetric]

Mexico giving up that late goal to Korea really changes things. All else being equal, I bet Sweden's odds would have been closer to single digits instead of 40%.

I'm having fun working out the scenarios where South Korea gets through. I'm actually a little bit surprised they only have 1%...the scenarios that would have to happen are unlikely but far from borderline impossible.

[dudog84]

I'm having fun working out the scenarios where South Korea gets through. I'm actually a little bit surprised they only have 1%...the scenarios that would have to happen are unlikely but far from borderline impossible.

That's what I thought about Iceland being at 7%. Maybe we should start a probabilities website of our own.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

That's what I thought about Iceland being at 7%. Maybe we should start a probabilities website of our own.

Or migrate this to the math thread.

Russia came back to earth today, and will face a tough knockout match.

[budwom]

Or migrate this to the math thread.

Russia came back to earth today, and will face a tough knockout match.

Their next opponents ought to hire some food tasters before the next match, Vlad hates to lose.

[gus]

I'm having fun working out the scenarios where South Korea gets through. I'm actually a little bit surprised they only have 1%...the scenarios that would have to happen are unlikely but far from borderline impossible.

If Sweden loses by more than a goal, Korea just needs to beat Germany. If Sweden loses by a single goal, Korea needs to beat Germany by 2 or more goals. I think either conditional probability is unlikely, but possible.

Where it's interesting is if Mexico and Korea both win by one goal with the same score (e.g. both win 2-1). Sweden and Germany will be tied on points, GD, GF in group play. They'll be tied on points, GD and GF among the matches with Sweden, Germany and Korea. So there the next tie breaker will be cards, and Boateng's red card means Germany is 2 points behind Sweden.

[Acymetric]

If Sweden loses by a single goal, Korea needs to beat Germany by 2 or more goals.

This one goes way deep into the tiebreaker rules! Unless I made a mistake somewhere, assuming a 0-1 Sweden loss and 1-0 Korea win, you get all the way to the second to last tiebreaker before drawing lots (most goals scored in games between the tied teams) which Germany wins. The next tiebreaker is fewest yellow/reds, followed by drawing lots.