Originally Posted by
jimsumner
Thought I would start a dedicated thread to this event.
First, a recap on the somewhat confusing format.
Twelve teams, divided into four 3-team pods.
Everyone plays the other two teams in their pods.
Winner of pods advance to semifinals Saturday.
Title game Sunday.
Now, there are only two ways a pod can go.
In Scenario A, one team goes 2-0, one team goes 1-1, one team goes 0-2.
Easy to see who advances here.
Scenario B is the circular-firing squad scenario, in which each team goes 1-1.
No head-to-head advantage for anyone here.
So, the tiebreaker goes to the top seed in the pod, based on regular-season in conference.
Those teams would be North Carolina, Clemson, NC State and Duke.
They are the only four teams that can advance with a loss.
In other words, the three teams that lost yesterday-Georgia Tech, Virginia and Notre Dame-have no chance to advance to the semifinals. And none of these teams has a realistic chance of making the NCAAT.
So, their second games are meaningless. For them. But not necessarily for their opponents.
So, it will be interesting to see how these teams play out their season.
Some words on yesterday's action. A 2-1 game, a 3-2, 11-inning game and a 6-2 game that was 1-2 going into the bottom of the eighth.
So pitching ruled, excluding the Notre Dame bullpen collapse against Miami.
Pitt's win over GT was a big, big upset. They were the `12th seed. They play UNC tonight and would clinch their pod with a win.
A more likely outcome has UNC winning and punching their ticket to Saturday. The Tar Heels absolutely mauled Pitt earlier in the season.
So, count on lots of light blue in the stands Saturday.
Duke doesn't open until tomorrow. But the first game today involves Wake Forest and Louisvile, the other two teams in Duke's pod.
They are scoreless after two.
Should Wake win, Duke could clinch the pod by beating them tomorrow.
Should Louisville win, Duke could clinch the pod by winning over Louisville Friday.
But there's another dynamic at work for Duke.
Duke hopes to host first-round NCAA action next week. Sixteen regionals will need hosts.
By most accounts, Duke is just on the outside looking in. I really think Duke needs to win both pool games to feel good about hosting.
Note also, that Duke's next win will be a school-record 40th.
It's hot and humid in Durham, with rain expected. Could throw a figurative monkey wrench into the proceedings.
More later.