Carter considering coming back?!?!?! (UPDATE: He went to the NBA)

[cbarry]

Touche!

The basketball gods just ignore obvious reverse-jinxes. You have to start being more subtle because you already used your one mulligan (Cuse over MSU). Which was not efficient use -- should've waited til the Elite 8 and the Duke-KU game.

[CDu]

True, there is a slight potential financial opportunity to be had by coming back, but also a risk of losing tens of millions if next year doesn't go as well as planned. The risk far outweighs the potential gain. I don't blame Carter at all for leaving. It's the right move for him.

I appreciate the history on some of the other players who delayed, CDu. Looks like, for the most part, except for Griffin, there was not much to gain, and definitely some money lost, as a result.

Yes, there is certainly a chance that returning would be a bad financial decision. It is probably the expectation, in fact. My point wasn't to say that staying is absolutely the right financial decision. It would be a "gambling on yourself" situation. And my point of listing those guys wasn't to say that they all made good financial decisions by returning. It was to show that guys gamble on themselves almost every year.

In addition to the guys I listed, others have chosen to return for an additional year too: Smart, Noah (coming back as a junior), Horford (ditto), Robert Williams. Again, not to suggest that them coming back was the right financial move - just to show that these guys make that decision more often than you realize.

Again, HEAVY odds are that Carter will go pro. I certainly don't expect him to be at Duke next year. But if he did come back, he wouldn't be the first to do so. He wouldn't even be the 10th to do so in the last decade or so. It's pretty rare (probably an average of about 1 lotto pick per year since the one-and-done started), but it does happen.

[Duke76]

Well, to be fair, it is the only way to try and analyze. We can't rate "player life satisfaction over career."

I'd come back just to play with this dude, https://uproxx.com/dimemag/tre-jones...and-classic/2/

watch that video with or without Carter we got a point guard that doesn't screw around...think he will be light years ahead of what we had this year...give Carter and the other incoming freshmen guys one day of pickup games with Carter this weekend and he'd stay

[Duke95]

Yesterday, I saw that Snoop Dogg said the only person who ever out-smoked him was Willie Nelson.
I expect that list would grow if he ever smoked with the people who think Wendell Carter is coming back.

[UrinalCake]

with or without Carter we got a point guard that doesn't screw around...think he will be light years ahead of what we had this year...

Tre Jones looks great, but a year ago we were watching mix tapes of Duval and saying literally the exact same thing.

[CDu]

Yesterday, I saw that Snoop Dogg said the only person who ever out-smoked him was Willie Nelson.
I expect that list would grow if he ever smoked with the people who think Wendell Carter is coming back.

There would have to be people who actually think Carter is coming back for the list to grow in said situation. But good job hammering that straw man.

[Duke95]

There would have to be people who actually think Carter is coming back for the list to grow in said situation. But good job hammering that straw man.

This thread is 8 pages long because nobody thinks there's a chance Carter comes back, amirite?

Anyone who thinks the probability that Carter comes back is greater than 0.001 has a great chance of out-smoking Snoop Dogg.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'd come back just to play with this dude, https://uproxx.com/dimemag/tre-jones...and-classic/2/

watch that video with or without Carter we got a point guard that doesn't screw around...think he will be light years ahead of what we had this year...give Carter and the other incoming freshmen guys one day of pickup games with Carter this weekend and he'd stay

Seriously??!?!!?!?!?!?!?!

Wow. This is depressing.

Duval was a very good PG for Duke. He was excellent in the game that ended our season (can't say the same thing about our senior or the freshman who's name is attached to this thread).

If I'm Carter, I'm putting zero equity into the "Tre Jones" factor. He needs to make this decision based on his a) love of college/Duke and b) financial trajectory.

[moonpie23]

if he comes back, i'll shave my head on Ustream....

[UrinalCake]

This thread is begging for a list of "What I would do if Carter came back" entries. I'll start:

If Carter came back, I would walk down Franklin Street all decked out in my Duke gear, painted blue and screaming my fool head off.

(EDIT: I see moonpie has already started)

[Duke76]

Tre Jones looks great, but a year ago we were watching mix tapes of Duval and saying literally the exact same thing.

i don't recall one with him hitting outside shots...just mainly dribbling east and west...like it when it says Tre is a north south player and that Cam saying he will be the leader...don't recall that being said about Duval at all...Tre tells you where to be on offense and defense or something to that effect was the money line statement...he gets the keys day one and bet K has already given him the car

[moonpie23]

This thread is begging for a list of "What I would do if Carter came back" entries. I'll start:

If Carter came back, I would walk down Franklin Street all decked out in my Duke gear, painted blue and screaming my fool head off.

no, you have to do something that you don't USUALLY do...

[devildeac]

You might be correct

My apologies!

"You may be right
I may be crazy
But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for."

[CDu]

This thread is 8 pages long because nobody thinks there's a chance Carter comes back, amirite?

Thinking there is a chance Carter comes back is not the same as thinking Carter is coming back. That the thread is 8 pages long doesn't suggest in any way that people think Carter is coming back. It suggests that we like to talk about stuff in the offseason. Hell, probably half the posts are about our incoming freshman class.

Anyone who thinks the probability that Carter comes back is greater than 0.001 has a great chance of out-smoking Snoop Dogg.

I have no idea what the probability that Carter comes back is. But given the last decade's evidence, I'd venture it is higher than 0.001. Simple logic: count the number of projected top-10 picks over the last decade who returned to college instead of being a top-10 pick. If the number is greater than 0, then the probability is greater than 0.001.

I'll start: Harrison Barnes. Question answered. I could continue: Sullinger, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo. There may be others, but I'm too lazy to look.

There is VERY little chance Carter returns. It's greater than zero. I'd probably put it in the ~1% range if I had to guess. As in, almost certain he goes. But not 100% certain.

[UrinalCake]

i don't recall one with him hitting outside shots...just mainly dribbling east and west...like it when it says Tre is a north south player and that Cam saying he will be the leader...don't recall that being said about Duval at all...Tre tells you where to be on offense and defense or something to that effect was the money line statement...he gets the keys day one and bet K has already given him the car

No, but we were saying Duval was the point guard that we needed, that we hadn't had since Tyus, which would be the missing piece that we didn't have the previous year.

[BD80]

if he comes back, i'll shave my head on Ustream...

I will too. Won't look any different.

[Troublemaker]

No, but we were saying Duval was the point guard that we needed, that we hadn't had since Tyus, which would be the missing piece that we didn't have the previous year.

That is true, but we were a bit unlucky. Similarly-ranked Collin Sexton played very well last season, for example, and a couple of PGs ranked below Trevon outplayed him as well.

I'm on board with cautious optimism and letting the freshmen prove it, though. And I would agree that Wendell should make a decision independent of Tre Jones' highlight videos :-)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thinking there is a chance Carter comes back is not the same as thinking Carter is coming back. That the thread is 8 pages long doesn't suggest in any way that people think Carter is coming back. It suggests that we like to talk about stuff in the offseason. Hell, probably half the posts are about our incoming freshman class.



I have no idea what the probability that Carter comes back is. But given the last decade's evidence, I'd venture it is higher than 0.001. Simple logic: count the number of projected top-10 picks over the last decade who returned to college instead of being a top-10 pick. If the number is greater than 0, then the probability is greater than 0.001.

I'll start: Harrison Barnes. Question answered. I could continue: Sullinger, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo. There may be others, but I'm too lazy to look.

There is VERY little chance Carter returns. It's greater than zero. I'd probably put it in the ~1% range if I had to guess. As in, almost certain he goes. But not 100% certain.

Sullinger? Really? I completely agree with Barnes, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo, and I'd add Bridges (surefire lottery). But I'm not sold on Sully.

Man, if those are the names you listed, I'd advise Carter to go. Where's the upside? Griffin is really about it... (the Magic loooooved Smart. They may have taken him with the #2 pick: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/...c-marcus-smart)

[CDu]

Sullinger? Really? I completely agree with Barnes, Griffin, Smart, McAdoo, and I'd add Bridges (surefire lottery). But I'm not sold on Sully.

Man, if those are the names you listed, I'd advise Carter to go. Where's the upside? Griffin is really about it... (the Magic loooooved Smart. They may have taken him with the #2 pick: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/...c-marcus-smart)

Sullinger was a top-5 recruit who had a monster freshman year. He chose to return instead of being a lottery pick. It went poorly for him.

And yes, the odds are better that a guy will lose money by returning. The list of guys who have improved their stock by returning is pretty small. That said, this is a pretty unique circumstance in which this year's big man class is extraordinarily deep and talented, whereas next year's is extraordinarily light.

Again, Carter is almost certainly going pro, and the odds are that it is the right decision financially. But neither is 100%, and the latter is far from 100%.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I will too. Won't look any different.

Count me in. If we get to critical mass, Carter will HAVE to come back.