Carter considering coming back?!?!?! (UPDATE: He went to the NBA)

[tux]

Not saying that the following is the case...

But, as mentioned already, this makes sense from a purely PR perspective. 1) It makes no difference whether he declares now or at the deadline; 2) It creates a narrative of Carter being a more thoughtful person, etc; 3) It differentiates him a bit from the players that declared immediately.

Now, could any of that make a difference in where he gets drafted? I don't think so, but one could imagine a scenario where a team was considering a handful of players that they graded about the same. Intangibles could certainly come into play. If so, you can literally put a value on this move. Even if you move up one spot, it would be worth it, right? There's really no downside.

Again, not trying to be cynical or question the family's motives. When it comes to the business of the NBA, all is fair IMO.

[sagegrouse]

I agree with everyone that the chances of Carter returning are virtually zero. That being said, does anyone know how the insurance policies that college players get work? I assume the most standard type is lost earnings due to a major injury. Is there a policy for "lost earnings because he played much worse his sophomore year and thus his draft stock dropped?" If the second type of policy was available, returning for another year is much more likely than if he can only insure himself for injury.

I don't know the terms but K says Duke buys insurance policies for the players

[WiJoe]

Tre Jones looks great, but a year ago we were watching mix tapes of Duval and saying literally the exact same thing.

I like Tre's bloodlines

[Matches]

Not saying that the following is the case...

But, as mentioned already, this makes sense from a purely PR perspective. 1) It makes no difference whether he declares now or at the deadline; 2) It creates a narrative of Carter being a more thoughtful person, etc; 3) It differentiates him a bit from the players that declared immediately.

Again, not trying to be cynical or question the family's motives. When it comes to the business of the NBA, all is fair IMO.

Yes. Exactly. And from Duke's perspective, it's nice to have a high-profile guy and/or his parents saying nice things about the program, and about Wendell's experience at Duke. Win/ win. It's nice of them to do what they're doing. But it's just PR - it's really shouldn't be taken at face value.

[camion]

Ridiculous is what it is. There is zero, none, nada, zilch chance of him coming back next year. No way he turns down guaranteed tens of millions of dollars to come back to Duke next year, and I can't blame him!

I'd LOVE to have Carter back, but it ain't happening, folks. He's not "considering" coming back. He just hasn't declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent yet (that we know of).

All right just for fun, here's a pie proposal. Would you give 100 to 1 odds on your declaration? If Wendell goes pro this year you get a pie. If he doesn't you pay 100 pies.


I should probably mention that if you lose Carter gets half of the booty? That's 50 pies for Wendell!! Not that I would try to sway him unduly.

[mr. synellinden]

Might want to take those seeds, flip them and reverse them.

Yep. Strike that, reverse it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't know the terms but K says Duke buys insurance policies for the players

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

[camion]

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

I would imagine there is a minimum or floor for all, but probably for the stars the ceiling is... (wait for it)...






the roof.





Yeah, I've got nothing better to do today. I'm sitting in front of a computer waiting for a video meeting to begin.

[cruxer]

Not to mention taking home a third national champ . . . What’s that? The shot still went in? Never mind.

That hurt. Again.

[martydoesntfoul]

So what are the odds he announces his decision on April 16–his birthday?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

I don't think the players like Jack White get one...my understanding it was only for those who were virtual shoo-ins for big NBA contracts. Could be wrong...but I can't see an insurance company agreeing to insure a guy not likely to ever get an NBA check.

[yancem]

Sullinger was a top-5 recruit who had a monster freshman year. He chose to return instead of being a lottery pick. It went poorly for him.

And yes, the odds are better that a guy will lose money by returning. The list of guys who have improved their stock by returning is pretty small. That said, this is a pretty unique circumstance in which this year's big man class is extraordinarily deep and talented, whereas next year's is extraordinarily light.

Again, Carter is almost certainly going pro, and the odds are that it is the right decision financially. But neither is 100%, and the latter is far from 100%.

I'm not sure that the list of players that came back and improved their draft position is an idication of the difficulty/likely hood of increasing one's postition by coming back, so much as there is a very small list of players that came back and maybe many of the ones that did, weren't the ones that were in a good position to increase their stock. If more players returned for an extra year, maybe we would be able to make a stronger argument as to the mertis/detriments of an extra year in college. Also, in the examples of the players who returned and either saw their draft position stay the same or drop, can we be certain they actually harmed their career earnings?

What if they got drafted higher but being that much less prepared for the nba, didn't get picked up for the team option year(s)? If one can be exposed at the college level for having weaknesses, certainly those same weaknesses would be even more exposed at the nba level. And while players have all the free time to work on thier game in the pros, that doesn't mean that a) they will or b) they will get the coaching/help they need to do so sucessfully. The nba has very little practice time in season and the coaches are going to spend the most time with the players actually contributing on the court. The only time I think you can definitively say a player made the wrong decision coming back to school is when they drop significantly in the next draft and they wash out of the nba in the shortest amount of time. I think McAdoo probably fits this bill but he may still make his way back to the league. I think McRoberts is a decent case of someone who seemed to be hurt by returning but may not have been. He went from a possible lottery pick to a second rounder but has turned that into a 12 year career earning over $30 million. If he had come out after his freshman year, would he have stuck so long? We don't know but I can't imagine that an extra year in college made him a worse player.

[Kedsy]

I’d put the odds at 15% that he stays. About the same as a 2 seed beating a 15.

Might want to take those seeds, flip them and reverse them.

Even if he reverses them, it's still not right. Historically, #15 seeds have beaten #2 seeds less than 6% of the time. What he should have said is #14 seed beating a #3, which happens about 15% of the time.

[MartyClark]

I’d be surprised if most blue bloods don’t. The question is whether each policy is the same or whether the payouts differ (so an OAD gets 100x more than Jack White, for instance).

Through the magic of Google, it looks like the NCAA sponsors a program called Catastrophic Insurance Program. There is a $90,000 deductible. Basketball players must demonstrate the likelihood of being drafted in the 1st round in the upcoming draft. Premiums are based on the amount of coverage - basketball and football have a 10 million dollar cap.

There are also private disability plans available with varying criteria.

The underwriting on this would be very interesting.

[MChambers]

All right just for fun, here's a pie proposal. Would you give 100 to 1 odds on your declaration? If Wendell goes pro this year you get a pie. If he doesn't you pay 100 pies.


I should probably mention that if you lose Carter gets half of the booty? That's 50 pies for Wendell!! Not that I would try to sway him unduly.

Can we give at least 25 of the pies to Alex? Boy needs to gain some weight.

[mr. synellinden]

Even if he reverses them, it's still not right. Historically, #15 seeds have beaten #2 seeds less than 6% of the time. What he should have said is #14 seed beating a #3, which happens about 15% of the time.

Thanks for clarifying. Let me try this another way, if I were setting the betting line at this point in time, I would put it around 7-1 or 8-1. I really don't think this is a PR ploy as others have suggested. At the end of the NCAA tournament I would have set it around 40-1 or 50-1. Last year, one guy who was a clear lottery pick - and similar in terms of a likely draft spot - stayed. So that was 1 out of 14. Just about 7% - there is just about your 15 seed upset.

By the way, Caleb Swanigan who was drafted last year is another guy who could have been drafted in the first round the prior year and stayed for his sophomore year. He ended up as a late first round pick so he probably didn't improve his position by staying but I haven't seen his name mentioned as an example.

[MCFinARL]

I don't think the players like Jack White get one...my understanding it was only for those who were virtual shoo-ins for big NBA contracts. Could be wrong...but I can't see an insurance company agreeing to insure a guy not likely to ever get an NBA check.

Not an expert on the insurance biz, but if someone is willing to pay a premium for the insurance that sufficiently exceeds the expected value of the payout plus admin costs, why not? The insurance company is still more likely than not to make money on the deal.

Of course, that is a big if. As the commenter describing the NCAA program noted, the NCAA apparently allows people to participate only if they have realistic pro prospects. If Duke is providing supplemental insurance, they might have a similar policy.

[kAzE]

Not an expert on the insurance biz, but if someone is willing to pay a premium for the insurance that sufficiently exceeds the expected value of the payout plus admin costs, why not? The insurance company is still more likely than not to make money on the deal.

Of course, that is a big if. As the commenter describing the NCAA program noted, the NCAA apparently allows people to participate only if they have realistic pro prospects. If Duke is providing supplemental insurance, they might have a similar policy.

Also, even though Jack isn't necessarily an NBA prospect, he's still very likely to have a career playing basketball overseas. It makes perfect sense to insure all of our scholarship players.

[BD80]

Also, even though Jack isn't necessarily an NBA prospect, he's still very likely to have a career playing basketball overseas. It makes perfect sense to insure all of our scholarship players.

Is that a benefit received by the student body in general?

[Acymetric]

Through the magic of Google, it looks like the NCAA sponsors a program called Catastrophic Insurance Program. There is a $90,000 deductible. Basketball players must demonstrate the likelihood of being drafted in the 1st round in the upcoming draft. Premiums are based on the amount of coverage - basketball and football have a 10 million dollar cap.

There are also private disability plans available with varying criteria.

The underwriting on this would be very interesting.

I'm not sure I am understanding the concept of a deductible in this case...is this just to cover medical care for the injury? If it is insurance against lost professional earnings, what is the role of the deductible?