Nike Hoop Summit, 4/13 10pm ET ESPN2

[Troublemaker]

It may be worth noting that we had five guys who shot 37% or better from three-point range in 2017-18, and shot 37.2% as a team, good for 73rd best in the nation. So it's not like we were incompetent from three this season.

True, we were not incompetent at shooting threes, but we also only had 2 guys on the court who shot them well at decent volume. Marvin's 1.8 attempts/gm and Wendell's 1.2 attempts/gm couldn't cut it. For example, Kansas left Wendell wide open to clog the lane. He got up only 3 attempts and missed them all. A true stretch big man like Ryan Kelly would've continued taking the wide-open threes and ended up 7 for 15 from out there. (Of course, Kansas would not have played Ryan the same way; they made a good gamble to let Wendell shoot.) This season, at any one time, Duke usually had 3 players on the court that opponents were all too comfortable leaving open at the three-pt line to clog the middle. We need to reduce that number to 2 players or 1 player this upcoming season.

[COYS]

It's pretty clear that most posters are leaving AOC out of their thinking as a valuable contributor next season. The kid is 6'5" and has a nice handle and shot. He was on the thin side this year but what I thought he most lacked is the confidence to go for the shot when he had the chance. AOC has as good a handle as most wings/SGs in the league, is explosive and shows signs of being a nice player. Like a lot of young kids thrown into a team with a bunch of stars, he tended to defer. He has a year of experience, which also has to make him more valuable. i expect he and Javin to be first and second off the bench depending on the circumstances.

I don’t think posters are leaving AOC off the list as an important contributor. If our roster stays put, he is the first perimeter option off the bench. I think people are interested in speculating as to how the projected starting lineup fits. In the best case scenario, the four frosh plus Marques has enough shooting to open up driving lanes for our wings to attack while AOC is instant offense off the bench. What is probably less ideal is if the starters can’t shoot well enough to space the floor forcing AOC to become perhaps the primary three point threat. I’m very high on AOC. Most freshman that are ranked where Alex was ranked do not get as much playing time as Alex got as a freshman. He’s more than just a shooter and has the size to be a really good player . . . A starter even, in his junior and senior seasons. That said, if he becomes our primary perimeter threat next year, it means that none of RJ, Cam, Tre, or Zion is scaring anyone with their three point shot. That would be a big problem. Ideally, AOC will be lighting it up off the bench because defenses are so busy trying to stop our star freshmen that he gets lots of open corner threes and opportunistic cuts to the basket and offensive board put-backs. It’s not a coincidence that Alex’s best stretch of play this season came before defenses started to collapse on Marvin and completely stopped guarding Trevon on the perimeter.

[flyingdutchdevil]

True, we were not incompetent at shooting threes, but we also only had 2 guys on the court who shot them well at decent volume. Marvin's 1.8 attempts/gm and Wendell's 1.2 attempts/gm couldn't cut it. For example, Kansas left Wendell wide open to clog the lane. He got up only 3 attempts and missed them all. A true stretch big man like Ryan Kelly would've continued taking the wide-open threes and ended up 7 for 15 from out there. (Of course, Kansas would not have played Ryan the same way; they made a good gamble to let Wendell shoot.) This season, at any one time, Duke usually had 3 players on the court that opponents were all too comfortable leaving open at the three-pt line to clog the middle. We need to reduce that number to 2 players or 1 player this upcoming season.

Our 3pt shooting wasn't incompetent. Our 3pt shooting was incompetent in the 2nd weekend of the tournament, where Duke shot 12-55, or 22%.

And that's where, unfairly, a lot of folks will judge our 3pt shooting.

Next year, we don't have any surefire 3pt shooters like this year. This year, we knew we had Grayson. We felt optimistic about Trent (and he turned out to be amazing from 3). Next year, we have...AOC? Maybe Cam? For AOC to see the floor, he really needs to improve his D. And Cam has a reliable 3, but he's not Grayson nor Gary.

[COYS]

Our 3pt shooting wasn't incompetent. Our 3pt shooting was incompetent in the 2nd weekend of the tournament, where Duke shot 12-55, or 22%.

And that's where, unfairly, a lot of folks will judge our 3pt shooting.

Next year, we don't have any surefire 3pt shooters like this year. This year, we knew we had Grayson. We felt optimistic about Trent (and he turned out to be amazing from 3). Next year, we have...AOC? Maybe Cam? For AOC to see the floor, he really needs to improve his D. And Cam has a reliable 3, but he's not Grayson nor Gary.

I think the combination of shooting poorly in the second weekend of the tournament combined with the fact that defenses really only respected Grayson and Gary from three was the problem. We could have shot poorly from three, but if Kansas had to spread out its defense to cover Trevon, we might have had an extra good look or two inside for Marvin or Wendell, which would have made all the difference. We might be better at spacing the floor next year if we have three or four guys who are capable of being 35-37% shooters at high volume even if the team three point average isn’t as good as this past season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think the combination of shooting poorly in the second weekend of the tournament combined with the fact that defenses really only respected Grayson and Gary from three was the problem. We could have shot poorly from three, but if Kansas had to spread out its defense to cover Trevon, we might have had an extra good look or two inside for Marvin or Wendell, which would have made all the difference. We might be better at spacing the floor next year if we have three or four guys who are capable of being 35-37% shooters at high volume even if the team three point average isn’t as good as this past season.

35-37% is really good. To put that in perspective, Kennard shot 32% as a freshman. Tatum shot 34%. Allen was under 35% (just barely) as a freshman. And these are all lights out shooters today.

I'd be stocked if we had 2 players on the whole roster who shot 35%+.

I don't think we will have a Duval-esque shooter, but I also don't think we'll have any knock-downs either.

[Troublemaker]

35-37% is really good. To put that in perspective, Kennard shot 32% as a freshman. Tatum shot 34%. Allen was under 35% (just barely) as a freshman. And these are all lights out shooters today.

I'd be stocked if we had 2 players on the whole roster who shot 35%+.

I don't think we will have a Duval-esque shooter, but I also don't think we'll have any knock-downs either.

Is that stoked or shocked because if the latter, I'd definitely bet a pie on it. I think people are dooming our three-pt shooting way too early.

[chrishoke]

I don't think we will have a Duval-esque shooter, but I also don't think we'll have any knock-downs either.

AOC?

[COYS]

35-37% is really good. To put that in perspective, Kennard shot 32% as a freshman. Tatum shot 34%. Allen was under 35% (just barely) as a freshman. And these are all lights out shooters today.

I'd be stocked if we had 2 players on the whole roster who shot 35%+.

I don't think we will have a Duval-esque shooter, but I also don't think we'll have any knock-downs either.

I think Duke in '07-'08 and '08-'09 might be a good example of what I"m talking about. None of Demarcus, Gerald, Jon, Kyle, or Nolan was a knock-down shooter in those seasons. Greg followed up an excellent '08 with a poor '09 from three (his role also changed, dramatically). The '09 team only shot 34.9% as a team while the '08 team shot 37.7%. Still, even Gerald took well over 100 threes in '09 despite being the poorest shooter in the group. He was competent enough that defenses couldn't simply leave him all alone on the perimeter, even if they were more likely to emphasize defending Jon, Kyle, Greg, and Nolan from three. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tre, Cam, RJ, Alex and possibly Zion all take in excess of 100 threes. As long as they are making enough to stay in the low 30's percent-wise, I think we'll be ok. Someone from that group will have a good year. Someone won't be as good. But as long as they are all credible threats, we can keep the floor spread, which will keep the offense moving and (hopefully) mean that most of the three point shots are open looks off of drive and kicks. I think you and I are mostly in agreement, but I'm probably a little more bullish on two guys shooting better than 35%.

Trevon was probably the single worst three point shooting starting guard Duke has had in the past two decades, with the possible exception of Gerald in his first few seasons (which is a little different because we had enough shooters that Gerald didn't really have to try to shoot many threes until his junior season). DeMarcus, Jayson, Justise, Jabari, and others have come to Duke with questionable outside shooting ability and still managed to post competent numbers. With the exception of Jabari and his step-back three move that he eventually abandoned as the season wore on, those guys all shot well mostly because they only took open looks off of kick outs. As long as we have enough competent threats to space the floor to allow for drive and kicks, I think we'll manage to knock down enough threes.

[Kedsy]

I think Duke in '07-'08 and '08-'09 might be a good example of what I"m talking about. None of Demarcus, Gerald, Jon, Kyle, or Nolan was a knock-down shooter in those seasons. Greg followed up an excellent '08 with a poor '09 from three (his role also changed, dramatically). The '09 team only shot 34.9% as a team while the '08 team shot 37.7%. Still, even Gerald took well over 100 threes in '09 despite being the poorest shooter in the group. He was competent enough that defenses couldn't simply leave him all alone on the perimeter, even if they were more likely to emphasize defending Jon, Kyle, Greg, and Nolan from three.

The 2009 team was Duke's worst three-point shooting team (by percentage) since they painted the three-point line on the court. Hopefully next year's team will be better than that.

True, we were not incompetent at shooting threes, but we also only had 2 guys on the court who shot them well at decent volume. Marvin's 1.8 attempts/gm and Wendell's 1.2 attempts/gm couldn't cut it. For example, Kansas left Wendell wide open to clog the lane. He got up only 3 attempts and missed them all. A true stretch big man like Ryan Kelly would've continued taking the wide-open threes and ended up 7 for 15 from out there. (Of course, Kansas would not have played Ryan the same way; they made a good gamble to let Wendell shoot.) This season, at any one time, Duke usually had 3 players on the court that opponents were all too comfortable leaving open at the three-pt line to clog the middle. We need to reduce that number to 2 players or 1 player this upcoming season.

I understand that this is the issue most are worried about. But having an insufficient number of reliable high-volume three-point shooters in 2017-18 didn't really keep us from taking a lot of three-pointers nor from making a lot of three-pointers.

With two reliable high-volume three-point shooters in 2017-18, we took 36.3% of our shots from three and made 37.2%. In 2016-17, with five reliable high-volume three-point shooters (Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson, Matt Jones), we took 38.3% of our shots from three and made 37.8%. Not so much of a difference, is it? The 2011 team (with Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, and Kyrie Irving (when healthy)) took 35.3% of its shots from three and made 37.4%.

This year's team took more three-pointers (both as a percentage of shots and per possession) than our 1999, 2004, 2010, and 2015 teams (among many others), and made a decent percentage. Despite the idea that teams could slough off three of our five players, if you look at the season as a whole and don't fixate on the last couple games it didn't really affect us very much on the court. Especially since (despite people clogging the lane against us) the team's two-point shooting percentage was Duke's fourth-best since they started segregating twos and threes, 32 years ago (2018: 56.0%; 1999: 56.5%; 2002: 57.4%; 1989: 57.5%). Overall, our eFG% in 2018 (55.9%) was better than 2010 (50.5%) and 2004 (53.2%) and not that far off from 2015 (56.6%) or even 1999 (57.4%). We had a really good offense (#3 in KenPom's offensive ratings) despite not having so many three-point snipers.

So I really don't think our lack of shooters in 2017-18 was as big a deal as people seem to think. Doesn't mean it won't be an issue next season. But I don't think it will be because whether or not any of Tre, Cam, RJ, and Zion can actually shoot from outside, people will have to guard them on the perimeter anyway. It's generally not a great idea to give a lot of room to a talented slasher because if you let him build up a head of steam he has a good chance of scoring even if you clog the paint, and it's an even worse idea to give a talented passer a lot of room (unless he only has one or two guys to pass to, but that's clearly not going to be an issue next season).

Anyway, I'm not saying outside shooting ability won't be a concern next season -- to the contrary, I believe it'll be one of the top three things to watch (along with defense and experience) -- but I don't think it's the potential calamity a lot of people are making it out to be.

It's pretty clear that most posters are leaving AOC out of their thinking as a valuable contributor next season. The kid is 6'5" and has a nice handle and shot. He was on the thin side this year but what I thought he most lacked is the confidence to go for the shot when he had the chance. AOC has as good a handle as most wings/SGs in the league, is explosive and shows signs of being a nice player. Like a lot of young kids thrown into a team with a bunch of stars, he tended to defer. He has a year of experience, which also has to make him more valuable. i expect he and Javin to be first and second off the bench depending on the circumstances.

I don't think anybody's leaving AOC out of their thinking, and pretty much everyone thinks he'll be first or second (probably second) off the bench next season. But it's also worth noting that in his last 100 minutes of 2018, he only scored 5.2 points per 40 minutes, on 23.5% shooting (33.3% from three), and had a 1.2:1 a/to ratio, while also being one of the worst defenders in our regular rotation. And I don't think he showed "as good a handle as most wings/SGs in the league," either.

He did show the potential to be a major contributor at Duke though, and next year's team will need his shooting. Hopefully he'll show a big freshman-to-sophomore jump, as many Duke players seem to do.

[AtlDuke72]

AOC?

Enough about AOC - doesn't anyone on thie Board have any comments about whether the 4 recruits are good shooters?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Enough about AOC - doesn't anyone on thie Board have any comments about whether the 4 recruits are good shooters?

Ummmmm...you're joking, right? We've talked about that a lot in the last 6 pages.

Bottomline:

Good shooter: Cam
Needs improvement: RJ, Tre, Zion

[kAzE]

I'm not sure why Duval always gets blamed for our perceived reputation as a "bad shooting" team last year. We shot 37% as a team from 3, that's pretty good. We just missed shots when it mattered. In the sweet 16 (Syracuse and Kansas games), we had plenty of open looks at 3 pointers that just didn't go down. And it wasn't really Duval's fault, either. He went 2 for 9 from deep, about what you would expect from him.

Gary Trent was 4 for 18 from three, and Grayson Allen went 5 for 23. That hurts. We had enough shooting, but our shooters couldn't shoot when it mattered.

I think the concern for lack of shooting next year is a little overblown. I suspect that we will be an adequate shooting team. I'm more worried about the defense coming together with such a young team.

[CDu]

So I really don't think our lack of shooters in 2017-18 was as big a deal as people seem to think. Doesn't mean it won't be an issue next season. But I don't think it will be because whether or not any of Tre, Cam, RJ, and Zion can actually shoot from outside, people will have to guard them on the perimeter anyway. It's generally not a great idea to give a lot of room to a talented slasher because if you let him build up a head of steam he has a good chance of scoring even if you clog the paint, and it's an even worse idea to give a talented passer a lot of room (unless he only has one or two guys to pass to, but that's clearly not going to be an issue next season).

Just getting back to the boards, and was going to post my response to "why do you think we will spread teams out next year". But this sums it up. Teams could cheat into the paint off of a guy like Carter, DeLaurier, White, or Bagley because those guys weren't strong enough ballhandlers to punish the open space. They didn't cheat off of Duval when he had the ball, because if you gave him breathing room he was a nightmare to defend. They DID cheat off of Duval when he was off ball, which is one of the reasons he was such a bad fit as a player when not the ballhandler: he really provided nothing off ball.

Next year, packing the lane would give driving and passing windows to any of 4 guys who are good at driving and/or passing (any of Jones, Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and O'Connell). And we will still have 1 or 2 (at minimum O'Connell and Reddish) good shooters, so they'll have to respect the threat of a three. It won't look like 2001 with Battier/Dunleavy/James/Duhon/Williams all dangerous from 3. But having good ballhandlers creates a gravitational pull on the defense, even if they aren't prolific shooters. Having 3-4 of those guys on the floor at all times will, with driving and passing, get defenses out of position. Even without great 3pt shooters.

People questioned how we'd have a good offense this year without 3-4 3pt threats on the floor at once. Well, we had one of our best offenses ever this year. It just didn't look like our "typical" offense. Well, next year won't necessarily look like our typical offense either. But I have little concern that it will be a REALLY efficient offense. My concern will be on the defensive side of the ball.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Just getting back to the boards, and was going to post my response to "why do you think we will spread teams out next year". But this sums it up. Teams could cheat into the paint off of a guy like Carter, DeLaurier, White, or Bagley because those guys weren't strong enough ballhandlers to punish the open space. They didn't cheat off of Duval when he had the ball, because if you gave him breathing room he was a nightmare to defend. They DID cheat off of Duval when he was off ball, which is one of the reasons he was such a bad fit as a player when not the ballhandler: he really provided nothing off ball.

Next year, packing the lane would give driving and passing windows to any of 4 guys who are good at driving and/or passing (any of Jones, Barrett, Reddish, Williamson, and O'Connell). And we will still have 1 or 2 (at minimum O'Connell and Reddish) good shooters, so they'll have to respect the threat of a three. It won't look like 2001 with Battier/Dunleavy/James/Duhon/Williams all dangerous from 3. But having good ballhandlers creates a gravitational pull on the defense, even if they aren't prolific shooters. Having 3-4 of those guys on the floor at all times will, with driving and passing, get defenses out of position. Even without great 3pt shooters.

People questioned how we'd have a good offense this year without 3-4 3pt threats on the floor at once. Well, we had one of our best offenses ever this year. It just didn't look like our "typical" offense. Well, next year won't necessarily look like our typical offense either. But I have little concern that it will be a REALLY efficient offense. My concern will be on the defensive side of the ball.

Isn't that typical Coach K this year? Excellent offense, questionable defense? And Coach K either fixes the D (2015, 2018) or he doesn't (2012, 2016, 2017).

While I am not worried about our offensive efficiency, I am worried about our 3pt shooting. There are some things that coaches love and teams will be good regardless of the personnel. RoyWill loves rebounding. He had an undersized team this year and his team did a great job of rebounding. Coach K loves 3pt shooting. But can our personnel hit enough 3s? I have no idea. My gut tells me one of Zion, RJ, or Tre will be better than expected 3pt shooter (like Trent this year). I just have no idea who.

[kAzE]

Isn't that typical Coach K this year? Excellent offense, questionable defense? And Coach K either fixes the D (2015, 2018) or he doesn't (2012, 2016, 2017).

While I am not worried about our offensive efficiency, I am worried about our 3pt shooting. There are some things that coaches love and teams will be good regardless of the personnel. RoyWill loves rebounding. He had an undersized team this year and his team did a great job of rebounding. Coach K loves 3pt shooting. But can our personnel hit enough 3s? I have no idea. My gut tells me one of Zion, RJ, or Tre will be better than expected 3pt shooter (like Trent this year). I just have no idea who.

I think all of those guys will shoot it slightly better than they did in high school, just based on the fact that none of them will be expected to carry as much of the scoring and ball handling load as they did in high school. They will be getting wide open looks because we'll be an excellent passing and ball handling team.

I would be surprised if this wasn't one of the best assist to made FG ratio teams we've had in awhile.

[proelitedota]

As long as we generate more possessions per game than our opponents through defense and rebounding, we don't have to be a good 3 point shooting team. Rebounding is reliable night and out, I hope we're better on the boards on D than we were this season, even if it means we give up zone.

[kAzE]

I would be surprised if this wasn't one of the best assist to made FG ratio teams we've had in awhile.

So I got curious, and calculated this stat over the past 10 years:

2017-18: 57.6% A/FGM
2016-17: 47.5%
2015-16: 48.8%
2014-15: 53.5%
2013-14: 54.8%
2012-13: 53.6%
2011-12: 48.4%
2010-11: 50.9%
2009-10: 53.1%
2008-09: 50.7%

I take back what I said . . . turns out we had a better A/FGM ratio in 2017-18 than we've had in a LONG time. And by comparison, Villanova posted a 53.7% ratio this past season. Even despite the flaws, we were a pretty damn good offense this year. The only weakness was a relatively high number of turnovers. If only we had shot 3s around our season average in Omaha . . .

[JasonEvans]

As some have clearly noted, I can't see why any team would not play a zone against Duke next year until we show we can hit the outside shots. Playing man to man vs this set of athletes, (with a PG like Jones) would seem to be pretty risky.

It is worth noting that shooting over a zone is not the only way to beat it. In fact, as we saw quite often this year, teams generally try to penetrate into the middle of a zone (through a pass or a hard dribble) which can cause chaos for the zoning team. RJ, Cam, and Zion could be absolute beasts doing this against a zone.

If merely playing zone was a good way to stop RJ Barrett, he would not have had this immense level of success in major international and all-star tournaments.

[Kedsy]

So I got curious, and calculated this stat over the past 10 years:

2017-18: 57.6% A/FGM
2016-17: 47.5%
2015-16: 48.8%
2014-15: 53.5%
2013-14: 54.8%
2012-13: 53.6%
2011-12: 48.4%
2010-11: 50.9%
2009-10: 53.1%
2008-09: 50.7%

I take back what I said . . . turns out we had a better A/FGM ratio in 2017-18 than we've had in a LONG time. And by comparison, Villanova posted a 53.7% ratio this past season. Even despite the flaws, we were a pretty damn good offense this year. The only weakness was a relatively high number of turnovers. If only we had shot 3s around our season average in Omaha . . .

I went even further back. The last season Duke had a higher assist to made field goal ratio than this season was 1991-92 (58.9%). We had exactly the same assist to made field goal ratio in 2000-01 (57.6%). Pretty heady company, at least for that stat.

[CDu]

So I got curious, and calculated this stat over the past 10 years:

2017-18: 57.6% A/FGM
2016-17: 47.5%
2015-16: 48.8%
2014-15: 53.5%
2013-14: 54.8%
2012-13: 53.6%
2011-12: 48.4%
2010-11: 50.9%
2009-10: 53.1%
2008-09: 50.7%

I take back what I said . . . turns out we had a better A/FGM ratio in 2017-18 than we've had in a LONG time. And by comparison, Villanova posted a 53.7% ratio this past season. Even despite the flaws, we were a pretty damn good offense this year. The only weakness was a relatively high number of turnovers. If only we had shot 3s around our season average in Omaha . . .

Or even made just one more. Or had Allen’s bank shot fallen.