MBB: Duke vs Syracuse NCAAT S16 (3/23 9:37) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[BigZ]

Does Kansas always get home games in the Regionals?

[MrPoon]

Does Kansas always get home games in the Regionals?

Only when they win the Big 12.

[cptnflash]

This is obviously a fantastic outcome for us - Syracuse is the worst team remaining in the field according to kenpom. Much better than having to play a mis-seeded Michigan State team with legit championship aspirations.

[robed deity]

This is obviously a fantastic outcome for us - Syracuse is the worst team remaining in the field according to kenpom. Much better than having to play a mis-seeded Michigan State team with legit championship aspirations.

If they can beat MSU, they can beat Duke. I like the matchup but anything can happen when they muck it up.

[Hingeknocker]

Does Kansas always get home games in the Regionals?

Last year in KC (45 minutes from Lawrence, and by absolute miles the largest concentration of KU alums/fans) and this year in Omaha (3 hours from Lawrence) is beyond absurd. Oh, and next year's Midwest regional is in Kansas City again.

I don't know what Bill Self did to get this prime placement three consecutive years, but it's a lot. Looking forward to whoever has the chance to deny the Jayhawks cashing in a Final 4 appearance.

[Bluedog]

Last year in KC (45 minutes from Lawrence, and by absolute miles the largest concentration of KU alums/fans) and this year in Omaha (3 hours from Lawrence) is beyond absurd. Oh, and next year's Midwest regional is in Kansas City again.

I don't know what Bill Self did to get this prime placement three consecutive years, but it's a lot. Looking forward to whoever has the chance to deny the Jayhawks cashing in a Final 4 appearance.

You would think Chicago, Indy, Detroit, Minneapolis, and cities in Ohio would get the Midwest regional more frequently than Kansas/Nebraska.

[KandG]

Looking forward to the usual detailed scouting report, but there really aren't too many secrets to be revealed about how Syracuse does what they do at this point. It was all there on full display against Michigan State: take all the rhythm out of the opponent's offense (whether it's inside play or perimeter jumpers) with their incredible length in the zone, and score opportunistically, run isolations for their key guys, and try to get to the FT line as much as possible.

Syracuse gave up more offensive rebounds and second chance points than they would have liked vs MSU, but the hideous volume three point shooting by the Spartans and the ability of the Cuse to get to the foul line and shoot 31 FTs with their grimly one dimensional offense was a pretty good template for their success. Taking a broad scan of their recent games, they do well when they can force a lot of uncomfortable 3 pointers and when they can get to the line for 20+ FTs.

Our game against Syracuse in Cameron was mostly under control, but we really didn't gain separation for good until we made our first three pointer (by Duval!) with over 7 minutes left in the game. I'm sure they were happy they limited us to 2-18 on three pointers on that night, but we kept their FTs to single digits with our zone and Bagley and Carter was more skilled size than they're used to seeing. Also, Grayson and Trevon kept their turnovers low and we managed to turn them over 17 times.

I expect a similar result on Friday, though I have to say I was very impressed by how focused Syracuse was against an opponent as talented as MSU, no matter how gruesome and limited it looked. I'm sure K will tell the team again, as he did with the first game, not to get too hung up if the offense isn't pretty as long as they're frustrating Syracuse just as much or more.

[OldPhiKap]

Still weird that both teams have to go to Omaha to play this.

“At least it’s not in Greensboro”

— Jimmy B.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If they can beat MSU, they can beat Duke. I like the matchup but anything can happen when they muck it up.

Yeah, this weekend should have been an advertisement against the dangers of hubris.

Remember, something like 23 of 25 ESPN talking heads picks MSU for the Final Four.

[Spanarkel]

Appreciate the excellent analyses of Friday's Duke-Cuse matchup by CDu and others.

Duke has shot below the hoops Mendoza line of 30% in 12 of our 35 games this year. That gives me some pause, but I think our guys are generally taking "better" threes over the past few weeks. Let's go, Duke!

[Spanarkel]

Appreciate the excellent analyses of Friday's Duke-Cuse matchup by CDu and others.

Duke has shot below the hoops Mendoza line of 30% in 12 of our 35 games this year. That gives me some pause, but I think our guys are generally taking "better" threes over the past few weeks. Let's go, Duke!

Sorry, below 30% from 3...

[UrinalCake]

I was at the game when we played them in Cameron. First half was ugly. At one point it looked like Cuse might not break 10 points by halftime (I think they would up with 15). We couldn’t hit anything ourselves but had about 14 dunks so that helped. Throwing over the zone for alley-oops worked really well. Our full court zone press was also effective as we got a few “pick six” style run outs.

Both teams are playing much better now but like most opponents they have no answer for Carter and Bagley. Both should be able to operate out of the middle of that zone.

I feel confident and I’m thrilled that we’re not facing MSU, but with that said every team still alive at this point is inherently a good team and/or playing well. Syracuse made the FF as a double digit seed a couple years ago, and I’m pretty sure they were big underdogs in every game along the way. Stay focused and take care of business and we should be able to get the W.

[uh_no]

Yeah, this weekend should have been an advertisement against the dangers of hubris.

Remember, something like 23 of 25 ESPN talking heads picks MSU for the Final Four.

or perhaps the dangers of listening to anything ESPN talking heads say.

[OldPhiKap]

I was at the game when we played them in Cameron. First half was ugly. At one point it looked like Cuse might not break 10 points by halftime (I think they would up with 15). We couldn’t hit anything ourselves but had about 14 dunks so that helped. Throwing over the zone for alley-oops worked really well. Our full court zone press was also effective as we got a few “pick six” style run outs.

Both teams are playing much better now but like most opponents they have no answer for Carter and Bagley. Both should be able to operate out of the middle of that zone.

I feel confident and I’m thrilled that we’re not facing MSU, but with that said every team still alive at this point is inherently a good team and/or playing well. Syracuse made the FF as a double digit seed a couple years ago, and I’m pretty sure they were big underdogs in every game along the way. Stay focused and take care of business and we should be able to get the W.

Good summary and outlook.

I am glad we're not playing MSU primarily because of how physical those games always are. I always feel that we show some wear the next game out.

Syracuse is well-coached, capable, and motivated. This will be a tough game. Having said that, we seem to be peaking at the right time. If we can play like we did against URI and Iona, we are going to be hard for anyone to stop.

Can't wait for Friday!

[CDu]

A second tip-of-the-cap to Syracuse for making my life easier too. This is mostly copy/pasted from the in-game thread earlier this year. Let's hope for a repeat of that game.

The Orange run a zone that looks VERY similar to our zone. They play a really aggressive zone with their forwards moving all up and down the flanks depending upon the positioning of the offensive players. They'll trap in the corners and on the sidelines. They will use their length and athleticism to create havoc. And if they had just a little more talent, they'd be the nightmare they can usually be. They have the 5th best defense (per Pomeroy, 7th per T-Rank) over the course of the season. We currently sit at 5th in T-Rank and 8th in Pomeroy, though both numbers belie how well we have played in zone: we are the #1 defense in the country over the past 10 games (Syracuse is 5th). Like us, they defend FG attempts quite well. Like us, they are not great at defensive rebounding. Unlike us, they are decent at forcing turnovers (though again, our numbers will look better when we are in zone). UNLIKE us, they commit fouls (the discrepancy is greater now that we are in zone). But basically, what you see from us in zone is relatively comparable to what you see from Syracuse in zone.

Offensively is where the two teams diverge. The Cuse simply aren't great offensively. Their biggest problems are that they just can't shoot. They are 325th in the nation in 3pt%. They do a decent job on the offensive glass, although less so in ACC play where they have been mediocre. They also draw a lot of fouls with their athletic guards/wings, and they shoot well from the line. But this is a bottom tier of the ACC team on offense. If we contain their guard/wings, it will be a long night for Syracuse offensively.

As you might expect, the Orange play VERY slow. They are 345st in the country in pace. Combined with our zone, this could be a low-scoring game (relatively speaking). They scored just 44 against us in Cameron, so I would expect to see Syracuse's score in the 50s in Omaha.

Centers: Paschal Chukwu (7'2", 230lb junior transfer from Providence) is the man in the middle. Chukwu is a gifted run/jump athlete for his size, and is obviously a huge shotblocking presence. But he's not very strong, and has basically zero offensive skills. He is a good offensive rebounder and can (and will) dunk, but isn't going to score on post ups. We will need to account for him on the baseline and keep him off the glass. But he's largely a nonfactor on offense if he isn't catching lobs. Defensively, he blocks A LOT of shots, but is a poor rebounder (a common affliction for shotblockers). And he can be bodied out of position easily. He also fouls at a high rate for being the center on a zone team. Bourama Sidibe (6'10", 205lb freshman) is the backup C, and he's largely a "ditto" to Chukwu. Terrific shotblocker, good athlete, no polish offensively. Sidibe is substantially more foul-prone than Chukwu, and is even less stout physically.

Forwards: Forwards are the staple of Boeheim's zone. They tend to be long and lean. This year's group is no exception. Oshae Brissett (6'8", 210lb freshman) is the top dog among the forwards. Brissett has made a great deal of progress as a catch-and-shoot player, but the strength of his game is still definitely his length, athleticism, and energy. He is a fantastic defensive rebounder and leads the team in total rebounds. He is a pretty decent 3pt shooter (34%), but really struggles elsewhere (35% overall). When he can stand still, though, his shot has been solid (79% FT shooter). He is a streaky shooter though, and if he is hitting the Cuse looks much better. If Brissett comes out of the game, it won't be for long. Marek Dolezaj (6'9", 180lb freshman from Slovakia) is the other starter. Dolezaj is a fairly nimble guy at 6'9", with a skill set not unlike Mike Dunleavy's. He's not nearly as good, most especially not as a shooter yet. But he's got ball skills and good fluid athleticism. He isn't going to jump out of the gym, but he is surprisingly springy. He's more of a combo forward that fits nicely in the 2-3 where he doesn't have to be a true post or true perimeter guy. Dolezaj is still adapting to US basketball, and fouls too much at times. Probably a year or two away from being a true impact player, but not a bad player now. Behind Brissett and Dolezaj is the Cuse's only other major minutes getter, Matthew Moyer (6'8", 215lb redshirt freshman). Moyer is a high-energy, glue guy type that fits in nicely at the forward spot in the 2-3. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the table at this point though, and mostly does dirty work type of stuff. Decent defensive rebounder, not really noteworthy anywhere else.

Wings: The Orange pretty much just play one wing, Tyus Battle (6'6", 205lb sophomore). Battle is a fearless scorer who is asked to carry an inordinate amount of the offensive load for Syracuse. He is a terrific athlete, very capable off the dribble and finishing in traffic. He's a really streaky jumpshooter though, and is a little too willing to shoot his way out of a "slump." He's a career 34% 3pt shooter on over 5 attempts per game. Battle is best off the dribble attacking the basket and drawing fouls, where he is a terrific free throw shooter. I expect that skill to be mitigated by our zone, but he's quite capable of getting hot with the jumper. He's a very dynamic player who will play in the NBA perhaps as early as next year. Battle almost never leaves the court. Barring foul trouble or injury, he's going to play 40 minutes for the Cuse.

Guards: See above. Frank Howard (6'5", 205lb junior) comes out of the game only slightly more often than Battle. Howard is a combo guard who has really improved this year from being an afterthought the past two seasons. He is a big, strong, athletic guard who can handle the ball and is adequate as a PG, but it really isn't a strength of his game. He's developed into a fairly effective 3pt shooter (35%, best on the team) and not awful free throw shooter (70%). But like Battle, he's more athletic than he is polished. Perhaps even moreso, as Battle is a better FT shooter and FG shooter overall. Still, for what Howard is asked to do playing 40 minutes at PG, he's had an impressive season. It's not his fault that the team just doesn't have enough weapons right now.

The Orange basically have three guys that can score (Battle, Howard, and Brissett) and two guys who can dribble (Battle and Howard). It's phenomenal that they have been as competitive as they've been this year, and that's a testament to Boeheim's coaching and that zone. The Orange are also very young at several spots, and inexperienced almost everywhere.

As was the case in the first game, the key will be containing Battle and Howard. If we do that, the Orange get VERY stagnant on offense. They just don't have a lot of weapons. And while they are VERY stout defensively, I don't think they are good enough defensively to beat us if they aren't playing well on offense. If we get to 60, I think we will win.

[DukeBlue666s]

I’ve always wondered something but not sure if it’s possible to put a sheet together as the research itself could be time consuming (Paging uh_no):

Regarding the NCAA Tournament, maybe going back only 10 years or so, is there a record anywhere of our record during the day (say ... before 6pm) vs our record during night games???

I would think the teams enjoy playing night games rather than during the day. When I used to ball, I felt I played better after the sun went down.

Anyone else ever ponder this?

[FerryFor50]

A second tip-of-the-cap to Syracuse for making my life easier too. This is mostly copy/pasted from the in-game thread earlier this year. Let's hope for a repeat of that game.

The Orange run a zone that looks VERY similar to our zone. They play a really aggressive zone with their forwards moving all up and down the flanks depending upon the positioning of the offensive players. They'll trap in the corners and on the sidelines. They will use their length and athleticism to create havoc. And if they had just a little more talent, they'd be the nightmare they can usually be. They have the 5th best defense (per Pomeroy, 7th per T-Rank) over the course of the season. We currently sit at 5th in T-Rank and 8th in Pomeroy, though both numbers belie how well we have played in zone: we are the #1 defense in the country over the past 10 games (Syracuse is 5th). Like us, they defend FG attempts quite well. Like us, they are not great at defensive rebounding. Unlike us, they are decent at forcing turnovers (though again, our numbers will look better when we are in zone). UNLIKE us, they commit fouls (the discrepancy is greater now that we are in zone). But basically, what you see from us in zone is relatively comparable to what you see from Syracuse in zone.

Offensively is where the two teams diverge. The Cuse simply aren't great offensively. Their biggest problems are that they just can't shoot. They are 325th in the nation in 3pt%. They do a decent job on the offensive glass, although less so in ACC play where they have been mediocre. They also draw a lot of fouls with their athletic guards/wings, and they shoot well from the line. But this is a bottom tier of the ACC team on offense. If we contain their guard/wings, it will be a long night for Syracuse offensively.

As you might expect, the Orange play VERY slow. They are 345st in the country in pace. Combined with our zone, this could be a low-scoring game (relatively speaking). They scored just 44 against us in Cameron, so I would expect to see Syracuse's score in the 50s in Omaha.

Centers: Paschal Chukwu (7'2", 230lb junior transfer from Providence) is the man in the middle. Chukwu is a gifted run/jump athlete for his size, and is obviously a huge shotblocking presence. But he's not very strong, and has basically zero offensive skills. He is a good offensive rebounder and can (and will) dunk, but isn't going to score on post ups. We will need to account for him on the baseline and keep him off the glass. But he's largely a nonfactor on offense if he isn't catching lobs. Defensively, he blocks A LOT of shots, but is a poor rebounder (a common affliction for shotblockers). And he can be bodied out of position easily. He also fouls at a high rate for being the center on a zone team. Bourama Sidibe (6'10", 205lb freshman) is the backup C, and he's largely a "ditto" to Chukwu. Terrific shotblocker, good athlete, no polish offensively. Sidibe is substantially more foul-prone than Chukwu, and is even less stout physically.

Forwards: Forwards are the staple of Boeheim's zone. They tend to be long and lean. This year's group is no exception. Oshae Brissett (6'8", 210lb freshman) is the top dog among the forwards. Brissett has made a great deal of progress as a catch-and-shoot player, but the strength of his game is still definitely his length, athleticism, and energy. He is a fantastic defensive rebounder and leads the team in total rebounds. He is a pretty decent 3pt shooter (34%), but really struggles elsewhere (35% overall). When he can stand still, though, his shot has been solid (79% FT shooter). He is a streaky shooter though, and if he is hitting the Cuse looks much better. If Brissett comes out of the game, it won't be for long. Marek Dolezaj (6'9", 180lb freshman from Slovakia) is the other starter. Dolezaj is a fairly nimble guy at 6'9", with a skill set not unlike Mike Dunleavy's. He's not nearly as good, most especially not as a shooter yet. But he's got ball skills and good fluid athleticism. He isn't going to jump out of the gym, but he is surprisingly springy. He's more of a combo forward that fits nicely in the 2-3 where he doesn't have to be a true post or true perimeter guy. Dolezaj is still adapting to US basketball, and fouls too much at times. Probably a year or two away from being a true impact player, but not a bad player now. Behind Brissett and Dolezaj is the Cuse's only other major minutes getter, Matthew Moyer (6'8", 215lb redshirt freshman). Moyer is a high-energy, glue guy type that fits in nicely at the forward spot in the 2-3. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the table at this point though, and mostly does dirty work type of stuff. Decent defensive rebounder, not really noteworthy anywhere else.

Wings: The Orange pretty much just play one wing, Tyus Battle (6'6", 205lb sophomore). Battle is a fearless scorer who is asked to carry an inordinate amount of the offensive load for Syracuse. He is a terrific athlete, very capable off the dribble and finishing in traffic. He's a really streaky jumpshooter though, and is a little too willing to shoot his way out of a "slump." He's a career 34% 3pt shooter on over 5 attempts per game. Battle is best off the dribble attacking the basket and drawing fouls, where he is a terrific free throw shooter. I expect that skill to be mitigated by our zone, but he's quite capable of getting hot with the jumper. He's a very dynamic player who will play in the NBA perhaps as early as next year. Battle almost never leaves the court. Barring foul trouble or injury, he's going to play 40 minutes for the Cuse.

Guards: See above. Frank Howard (6'5", 205lb junior) comes out of the game only slightly more often than Battle. Howard is a combo guard who has really improved this year from being an afterthought the past two seasons. He is a big, strong, athletic guard who can handle the ball and is adequate as a PG, but it really isn't a strength of his game. He's developed into a fairly effective 3pt shooter (35%, best on the team) and not awful free throw shooter (70%). But like Battle, he's more athletic than he is polished. Perhaps even moreso, as Battle is a better FT shooter and FG shooter overall. Still, for what Howard is asked to do playing 40 minutes at PG, he's had an impressive season. It's not his fault that the team just doesn't have enough weapons right now.

The Orange basically have three guys that can score (Battle, Howard, and Brissett) and two guys who can dribble (Battle and Howard). It's phenomenal that they have been as competitive as they've been this year, and that's a testament to Boeheim's coaching and that zone. The Orange are also very young at several spots, and inexperienced almost everywhere.

As was the case in the first game, the key will be containing Battle and Howard. If we do that, the Orange get VERY stagnant on offense. They just don't have a lot of weapons. And while they are VERY stout defensively, I don't think they are good enough defensively to beat us if they aren't playing well on offense. If we get to 60, I think we will win.

Stats from the last meeting:

duke-cuse-cuse.jpg

duke-cuse-duke.jpg

[Bluedog]

Stats from the last meeting:

duke-cuse-cuse.jpg

duke-cuse-duke.jpg

I would have to believe that we'll shoot better than 2-18 from three (with GA + Trent being 1-12) although I realize the zone makes 3s tough. Hopefully Bagley can repeat his 8-9 performance though! If our guards make good entry passes to the post and we don't turn it over, I definitely like our chances. I don't think Cuse has an answer for Bagley and Carter once they catch it down low.

[Duke76]

Yeah, this weekend should have been an advertisement against the dangers of hubris.

Remember, something like 23 of 25 ESPN talking heads picks MSU for the Final Four.

money post right there...remember thinking it when those guys were spouting off on selection Sunday

[FerryFor50]

money post right there...remember thinking it when those guys were spouting off on selection Sunday

This was the highlight of that hubris:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...me-vs-virginia