Welcome to regional weekend of the NCAA tournament! I'm very happy that this phase post (annually the first phase post realistically at risk of not happening) is an active phase post and not a postmortem. This is going to be a 3-part post. The first is your typical phase post, which focuses entirely on our team and what to look for from us. The next 2 posts in the thread will be scouting reports for the 2 remaining teams in the opposite half of our region (like was done in the Phase VII thread). As of right now, only one of the 2 is known (Kansas), as we await the Clemson/Auburn game result today. So the second post will be a Kansas breakdown, while the other team will be added once those games are through. Here's hoping it is Clemson so I can copy/paste from earlier this year
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From here on out, there are not likely to be any cakewalks. Sure, there is a chance that we could see Syracuse, in which we would be heavily favored. But everyone left in our path is fully capable of beating us. Worth noting that we'll be favored in every game but potentially one (Villanova) the rest of the way, though. This team can absolutely cut down the nets. So let's talk about what they need to do to get through Phase VIII.
1. Health: Full disclosure, I think the "health has to be first thing" is generally overdone. That was a very specific first for the 2010 team, which quite literally had no margin for error in terms of health. With this team, the margin is a bit different. In the frontcourt, I do think we could withstand an injury and still be a championship contender. We are that deep and that talented up front. But the backcourt simply cannot suffer an injury for us to win it all. We saw in the ACC tourney what happens when one of Duval or Allen gets hurt: when Duval got hurt against UNC, we were outscored 14-2 before he could return. We simply don't have the ballhandlers and playmakers behind Duval and Allen to be an elite team. Quite simply, the guards HAVE to stay healthy. So, here's hoping they do so! As of now, the team seems relatively healthy. Yes, Bolden is still wearing a knee brace and Carter is playing with a sore Achilles, but both are seemingly not limited out there. And Duval seems to be fully over his ankle sprain. Let's hope that we stay healthy for at least 2.5 more weeks!
2. Guard play (namely, guards making good decisions). My key question going into the tournament was "how will our guards play?" Well, for two games so far, they were magnificent. Duval put up 30 points (on just 21 shots) and 15 assists to 5 turnovers this weekend. And against on of the best pressure defenses in the tournament yesterday, he had 7 assists to 1 turnover - and that turnover was bogus (the ball bounced off a URI player's foot, not his). He was extremely secure with the ball. But more importantly, he didn't let ball security limit his aggressiveness. It was a great display of controlled aggression from Duval in both games. If he plays like that, we get REALLY hard to beat. But Duval wasn't alone. Allen had 12 assists to just 2 turnovers, and didn't force shots in scoring 26 points on 20 shots. It is no coincidence that the team rolled in both games that these guys were solid. They make such a huge difference.
3. Will the bigs stay big now that they aren't much bigger than the other bigs? It is no secret that our bigs dominated this weekend. They had a HUGE size advantage in both games, and they made the game look easy inside in both games. Well, that advantage is likely to go away next weekend. Our first round opponent is going to be fairly big, whether it be MSU or Syracuse. Carter and Bagley have been our rocks all season. We will need them to continue to do so next week. I think they will be up to the task, but that will be a key to getting through.
4. 3pt shooting. Basically, everything went right this weekend. Our guards didn't turn it over too much, our bigs dominated inside, and we hit 3s. Our regulars went 22-47 from 3 (46.8%!). It goes without saying that if we shoot like that, we aren't likely to lose. Of course, we haven't always shot like that. If the shooting is at least decent, that will help to make teams pay for overplaying the post (which most teams are going to do). Sure, it's nice to see a 45+% 3pt percentage, but that isn't critical. We just need to avoid 30% or below games.
5. UVa is out, long live "UVa?" Apologies to our Wahoo brethren on the boards for reopening fresh wounds, but I found some interesting info courtesy of Bart Torvik: over the past 10 games, we have put up the following adjusted efficiency numbers: 119.8 offense,
81.7 defense. We've been a top-20 offense during that stretch, but we've been the best defense in the country. Not surprisingly, we have been rated the #1 team in adjusted efficiency margin over that stretch. In short, we've basically out-UVa'd UVa over the last 10 games. We have allowed just 1 team in the past 10 games to score 1 point per possession. And that one team was a top-5 offense, who scored just barely a point per possession, and it was in the aforementioned game in which Duval missed a critical 4-minute stretch. Now, of course we haven't done it the same way UVa has. But the results are eerily similar to peak UVa style: suffocating defense, fairly efficient offense. Our length and activity in the zone has flummoxed basically everyone we've faced. Can the defensive dominance continue? I don't see any reason why it shouldn't continue. We have been consistently excellent defensively over those 10 games. It has been a really impressive show. Which brings me to the next point.
6. Can we get back to winning if the games are close? You may have wondered "how can we be the best over the past 10 games if we're only 8-2 in that stretch?" Well, it's simple: we lost the only two games that were within 5 points at the end. That is an unfortunate trend that has played out over the majority of the season. We've lost the last 6 games we've played in which the score was decided by 5 points or less. On the season, we are just 2-6 in games that were decided by 5 or less or went to OT (we won an OT game by 7, but I think it is fair to include in the close game department). Now, that stat is a tad misleading, in that we were also in close games against MSU, FSU, Miami, and Clemson, but pulled away in the final 2 minutes. But in games that were within a possession with under a minute to go, we are 3-5 on the year (wins against Texas, UF, and Clemson; losses to BC, UVa, St John's, VT, and UNC). Now, the good news is that we were within a possession of winning all but 2 of our games this year (only the road losses to NC State and UNC were more than a possession apart with under a minute to go). But the bad news is that we haven't done a good job of finishing when the game pressure is high in the final minute. There is a decent chance we will be in a close game this coming weekend, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds if we do find ourselves there. Though, admittedly, I would just as soon see us when like we did in 2001: every game by double-digits.
7. Anatomy of a Duke loss (i.e., stuff to avoid). I've talked a lot in this thread about what we can watch for to happen for the good. Now, I want to take a look back at our losses to discuss what we want to avoid based on our 7 losses this year. A note: the first 5 losses were pre-zone, so to some degree they should be discounted. But away we go.
A. BC: in this one, we shot just 26.7% from 3, and didn't win the rebounding battle (it was a virtual tie) despite our size advantage. Additionally, BC got too many easy looks against our man-to-man defense, and hit 57.7% from 3. It probably goes without saying, but when you shoot 27% and the opponent shoots 57% from 3, you are likely to lose. So let's not do that.
B. NC State: we shot just 20% from 3, were slightly outrebounded, and lost the turnover battle 16 to 10. We also let them shoot 50% from the field, and fouled them too much (where they went 23-25 from the line). Again, don't shoot 20%, don't lose the rebounding battle, don't turn it over too much.
C. UVa: 26.7% from 3, 45.5% from the line, and lost the turnover battle 16 to 5.
D. St John's: We had 18 turnovers, and let them shoot 47% from 3.
E. UNC 1: We were absolutely dominated on the glass, and we lost the turnover battle 8 to 2.
F. VT: 28.6% from 3, and 18 turnovers.
G: UNC 2: We shot 26.1% from 3, had 18 turnovers, and were outrebounded (% wise).
As you can see, the consistent themes in all but the UNC losses were either turnovers, poor 3pt shooting, and/or letting the opponent get hot from 3. Oddly, the zone has largely eliminated the hot-shooting problem, likely because we aren't allowing dribble penetration of pick and rolls to allow wide-open shooters on kickouts. So the BC and St John's losses are unlikely to repeat themselves. If we can stay at 15 turnovers or below, and avoid abysmal shooting nights, and avoid getting beaten on the glass, we're going to stand a VERY good chance to advance. It's rare that a team has such a seemingly simple formula for success. But it is also rare that a team has such an individual talent advantage regardless of opponent. So it largely just comes down to attention to details and effort. If we avoid mistakes and don't let the other team outwork us, we're going to be very hard to beat. So hopefully we avoid mistakes and don't let the other team outwork us.
Here's hoping we get to see a Phase IX thread!